UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
************************************************************************
The electronic preparation of this document has been done by the
Population Information Network(POPIN) of the United Nations Population
Division in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme
************************************************************************
AS WRITTEN
UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS
"WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY"
Summary
Attached is the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a
comprehensive statement prepared by UCS which summarizes the views of
many prominent scientists on emerging threats to life-sustaining
resources and the global environment. The statement outlines a broad
agenda of corrective action, ranging from development of a new ethic
within the scientific community to greater support for alternatives to
fossil fuels and a comprehensive approach to stabilize population
growth.
UCS circulated the "Warning" to senior scientists around the world. In
an effort to demonstrate consensus among scientists from both developed
and developing countries, we sought endorsement from members of the
leading scientific academies in North America, Latin America, Europe,
Africa, and Asia. The response has been overwhelming: more than 1600
signatories from 70 countries. There should be no doubt that a broad
consensus is emerging within the scientific community regarding the
validity of major threats to the future well-being of humanity and the
global environment
As indicated on the attachments, the quantity and caliber of
signatories to this statement is quite unprecedented:
• 104 scientists who have been awarded the Nobel Prize;
• a substantial number of senior officers from national and
international science academies (e.g., Third World Academy of Sciences,
Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of London, Chinese Academy
of Sciences);
• a majority of the members of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences (the
prestigious body of scientists that advises Pope John Paul II on
scientific issues).
The "Warning" was the first project of a new UCS initiative called the
Global Resources Project Its goals are to greatly expand the
participation of scientists in environmental, population, and
development issues and to enhance the overall credibility of public
education and policy debate.
WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY
INTRODUCTION
Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human
activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the
environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our
current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human
society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living
world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.
Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our
present course will bring about.
THE ENVIRONMENT
The environment is suffering critical stress:
The Atmosphere
Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet
radiation at the earth's surface, which can be damaging or lethal to
many life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid
precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests
and crops.
Water Resources
Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers
food production and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the
world's surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80
countries, containing 40% of the world's population. Pollution of
rivers, lakes and ground water further limits the supply.
Oceans
Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the
coastal regions which produce most of the world's food fish. The total
marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield.
Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers carrying
heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial,
municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste - some of it toxic.
Soil
Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment,
is a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and animal
husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth's vegetated surface has been
degraded - an area larger than India and China combined -and per capita
food production in many parts of the world is decreasing.
Forests
Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests
are being destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest
types will be gone in a few years. and most of the tropical rain forest
will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will go large
numbers of plant and animal species.
Living Species
The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of
all species now living, is especially serious. We are losing the
potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the
contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the
robustness of the world's biological systems and to the astonishing
beauty of the earth itself.
Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or
permanent. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing
levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including
carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation,
may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming are
still uncertain—with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very
severe—but the potential risks are very great.
Our massive tampering with the world's interdependent web of life —
coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation,
species loss, and climate change—could trigger widespread adverse
effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological
systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.
Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency
or delay in facing the threats.
POPULATION
The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive
effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite.
Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we
are fast approaching many of the earth's limits. Current economic
practices which damage the environment, in both developed and
underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk that vital
global systems will be damaged beyond repair.
Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on
the natural world that can Overwhelm any efforts to achieve a
sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our
environment, we must accept limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate
indicates that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4
billion, while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total
could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today's 5.4 billion. But,
even at this moment, one person in five lives in absolute poverty
without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.
No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the
threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity
immeasurably diminished..
WARNING
We the undersigned, senior members of the world's scientific community,
hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our
stewardship of the earth and the life on it, is required, - vast human
misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be
irretrievably mutilated.
•WHAT WE MUST DO
Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed simultaneously:
1. We must bring environmentally damaging activities under control
to restore and protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend
on.
We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign,
inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the
pollution of our air and water. Priority must be given to the
development of energy sources matched to third world needs—small scale
and relatively easy to implement.
We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land,
and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.
2. We must manage resources crucial to human welfare more
effectively.
We must give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and other
materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.
3. We must stabilize population. This will be possible only if all
nations recognize that it requires improved social and economic
conditions, and the adoption of effective, voluntary family planning.
4. We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.
5. We must ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women control over
their own reproductive decisions.
The developed nations are the largest polluters in the world today.
They must greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce
pressures on resources and the global environment. The developed nations
have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing nations,
because only the developed nations have the financial resources and the
technical skills for these tasks.
Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-
interest: whether industrialized or not, we all have but one lifeboat.
No nation can escape from injury when global biological systems are
damaged. No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce
resources. In addition, environmental and economic instabilities will
cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for developed and
undeveloped nations alike.
Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the
gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will be
overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to
become trapped in spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest,
leading to social, economic and environmental collapse.
Success in this global endeavor will require a great reduction in
violence and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct
of war—amounting to over $1 trillion annually—will be badly needed in
the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.
A new ethic is required — a new attitude towards discharging our
responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must
recognize the earth's limited capacity to provide for us. We must
recognize its fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This
ethic must motivate a great movement, convincing reluctant leaders and
reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the
needed changes.
The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach
and affect people everywhere. We need the help of many.
We require the help of the world community of scientists - —natural,
social, economic, political;
We require the help of the world's business and industrial leaders;
We require the help of the world's religious leaders; and
We require the help of the world's peoples.
We call on all to join us in this task