UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
POPULAT10N AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
A Briefing Note
Prepared by
Organization of African, Unity (OAU)
and
Economic commission for Africa (ECA)
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
I. The Basic Issues: Population Growth and the Quality of Life
In recent years an increasing number of African people are being added
every year This was not always the cas these population increases are
unprecedented in history. But the problem of population is not simply a
problem of numbers It is a problem of human welfare and of development
Rapid population growth can have serious consequences for the well-
being of humanity worldwide. If development entails the improvement in
people's level of living - their incomes ,health, education and general
well-being - and if it also encompasses their self esteem, respect
dignity and freedom of choice then the really impotant question about
population growth is how does the contemporary
population situation in many African countries contribute to or detract
from their chances of realizing the goals of development, not only for
the current generation but also for the future generations? Convrsely,
how does development affect population growth?
The major issues relationg to this basic question are the following:
(1) The improvement in the level of living: Will African countries(?s
be capable of improving the levels of living for their people with the
current and anticipated levels of population growth? To extent does
rapid population increase make it more difficult to provide essential
social services including housing , transport, sanitation, and
security?
(2) Increase labour forces and the problem of unemployment: How will
African countries be able to cope with the vast increases in their labor
forces over the coming decades? Will employment opportunities be
plentiful or will it be a major achievement just to keep unemployment
levels from rising?
(3) the problem of poverty alleviation: What are the implications
of higher population growth rates among the world's poor for their
chances of overcoming the human misery of absolute poverty? Will world
food supply and its distributon be sufficient not only to meet the
anticipated population increasein the coming decades but also to
improve nutritional levels to the point where all humans can have an
adequate diet?
(4) improvement- in health and education: Given the anticipated-
population growth will African countries be able to extend the coverage
and improve the quality of their health and educational systems so that
everyone can at least have the chance to secure adequate health care
and basic education ?
(5) Poverty and the freedom of choice: To what extent are the low levels
of living an important factor in limiting the freedom of parents to
choose a desired family size ? Is there a relationship between
poverty and family size?
In view of the above questions, it is important to frame the
population issue not simply in terms of numbers, or densities , or
rates, or movements but with full consideration of the qualities of
human life: prosperity in place of poverty education in place of
illiteracy full opportunities for the next generations of children in
place of current limitations. Population trends if favourable, open
man's options and enlarge his choices. Thus population policy
is not an end but only a means - a means to better life. This what the
concern about population is about , or ought to be.
II. Africa's Demographic Features
Over the last one century Africa's population has grown at a rapid rate.
The various estimates of the population size of Africa indicate that
prior to 1900, the annual growth rate of population was less
tharl 0.1 per cent; durirlg the period 19001950, it was 1.2 per cent; in
the period 1950-1970, the growtn rate was estimated at 2.8 per cent; in
the period 1980-1990, the rate was at)out 3.2 r)er
cent. These data SllOW that the recent demograr)hic trends in Africa are
characterized not only by unprecederlted rapid growtla rates t)ut also
t)y tile associated youthful age cor zositir
Africa faces a major population explosion in the near future.
Africa's population which was estimated at 257 million in 1960 had
increased to 482 million by 1983. ,n 1993 the population of
the continent was estimated at 682 mill on. The average annual growth
rate during the decade was 3.2 per- cent - the highest among Third World
regions. in 1983, the ECA , using hight variant
assumptions , projected that total African population will be about 1.1
billion by 2008, taking an annual growth rate of 3.2per cent during the
25-year period ( 1 983-2008).The associated numbers of urban
dwellers will be 472 million; children (0-14), 479 million; active
population (15-64), 546 million; and school age 178 million (primary)
152 million (secondary). and 124 million (tertiary).
Even under the medium variant of the population projections by
ECA, a2.8 per cent annual growth would bring the total population to
997 million by the year 2008 instead of 1.1 billion based on high]
variant assumptions. Thus the prospects of a new and better demographic
setting that will not bring about unsustainable pressures and tensions
but will rather ensure the progress and prosperity of all African
countries seem rather remote during the next 14 years as drastic
structural changes in the demographic situation take a long time.
III. Consequences of rapid population growth in Africa.
The costs of rapid population growth are cumulative: more births
today make the task of slowing population growth later difficult, as
today's children become tomorrow's parents. In general, food supplies
and agricultural producrion must be greatly increased to meet the needs
of a rapidly growing population, this limits the allocaton of resources
to other economic and social sectors, Secondly , the rappid increase in
population means that there will be an increase in the dependency ratio
This implies that the country concerned will have to allocate increasing
resources to feed, clothe, house and educate the useful component of the
population which consumes but dopes not produce goods and services
Thirdly, a rapidly growing popuiation has serious implications for the
provision of productive employment Since the rapid)id population growth]
is normally accompanied by a proportionalte increase in the supply of
the labour force, it means that the rate of job creation should match
the rate of supply of the labour force In Africa the rate of latgour
force supply has outstripped that of job creation,implying that the
rates of urlemployment have been increasing rapidly In other words, the
number of people seeking employrnent increases more rapicily than the
number of available jobs This kind of situation. poses a menacing
problem for society
When an ever-growing number of workers cannot be absorbed in the
modern economic sectors of the African courltries the workers are
forced either into unproductive service occupations or back into the
traditional section with its low productivity and low subs stence wage
levels This large supply for cheap labour tends to hold back
techologfical change, and industrialization is slowed by mass
poverty.which in turn reduces the demand for manufactured goods. The
end results are low saving rates and low labor skills, both of which
enhibit the full development and utilization of natural resources in
some African countries. In other countries, the growing population
would outrun the levels at which renewable resources could be
sustanined, and the resource bases would detoriorate. Thus, widespread
poverty, low labour productivity, the growing demand for food and slow
industrialization distort and degrade the international trade of
African countries.
Rapid population growth rates also have ramifications for
political and social conflicts among different ethnic, religious,
linguistic and social groups. As population growth rapidly, there will
be increasing demands for governmental services in health, education,
welfare and other functions cause of or even the major contributing
factor in violence aggression, the large proportions of young people,
particularly htose unemployed or have little hope for a satisfactory
future, might form disruptive and potentially explosive political force.
The cost adequacy and nature of health and welfate services might
be affected by rapid population growth in much the same way as are those
of educational services. In the the individual family death and illness
might be increased by high fertility easy and frequent pregnancies, and
the necessity of caring for excessive numbers of children. It should
also be noted that the physical and mental development of children are
often retarced in large families because of in adequate nutition and the
prevelance of diseases associated with povery, and also because the
childten are provided of sufficient adult contact.
Another major consequence of rapid Africa's population growth is
the phenomenal growth rate of urban population. Due to an increaese in
the total population, the Africa's urban population will reach 377
million and 1,271 million levels for the years 2000 and 2025,
respectively. Without adequate provision of housing facilities, the
rapid population growth rate will result in poor and crowded housing in
the urban slums of the rapidly growing cities, and this could also
produce further social problems.
Rapid urbanization has also caused stresses in many African
economies. Africa is still very largely rural and agricultural, as some
75% of all Africans live outside cities and towns. Nevertheless, during
the past generation, urbanization has increased at an alarming pace.
More than 42% of all population, compared with only 8% in 1960. In fact,
there were only two cities in the continent with populations exceeding
500,000 in 1960. If recent trends should continue, Africa will have 60
cities with population of more than 1,000,000 by the year 2000 as
against 19 cities in 1993. It should be noted that in 1950, only Cairo
had a population of more than 1,000,000 in the entire African continent.
This rapid urban population growth has been caused by factors such
as prospects for more jobs, access to medical treatment, and general
attractions of urban lives. Many migrants to the cities, however, have
discovered that their prospects are not significantly improved by
relocation, and unemployment and underemployment are rampant in every
major city in Africa. Increases in population cause a number of serious
problems. With an average annual growth rate in agriculture of about
2.5 o self-sufficiency in food production becomes a more elusive
goal.Additionally, high population growth puts pressures on the soil
by decreasing the time it is allowed to lay fallow; pastures land
declines and the result is over grazing, which in turn causes in
creased friction between farmers and herders.
IV. Inter-relationship between population growth and socio-economic
development
The socio-economic consequences of demographic evolution and
vise-versa are extremely difficult to measure with accuracy. However,
some studies have attempted to show the , relationship between
population growth and socio-economic development .
The correlation matrix of population and socio-economic
development for 50 Africancountries during the.last three decades has
proved that population and development are inseparable and their
relationship is reciprocal . The most important findings from these
studies are :
a) Population , agriculture and environment.
The relationship between the three variables show that the
situation in Africa is critical. From the 660 million hectares of
forest, about 3.2 million hectares per year are lost. The demand for
fire wood is increasing about the same rate of population
growth (3 5). This degradation of environment has a negative
repercussion on the agriculture production and among other things on the
availability of water resources.
The food deficit generated aggravated the malnutrition situation
in African countries. The agriculture and economic stagnation impede the
process of transition towards the lowering of fertility.
The rapid population growth affected also the satisfaction of
immediate needs of the people and sustainable development.
b) Population and education.
It is noted that population growth is closely correlated with the
number of children per woman and in the countries where the primary
school enrollment for girls is nigh it is found that the infant
mortality is lower. The fertility rate is also negatively correlated
with the number of girls registered in primary school showing that
education of women is a crucial variable in the explanation of the
fertility tendency observed in African countries and accordingly
constitutes and important factor of the relation between demographic
growth and development
c) Population migration and urbanization
Population growth affects the increase of urban areas through
the process of n migration.fertility is higher among population working
on agriculture than it is in urban population. As a result rural-urban
migration takes place. This could cause serious shortage of labour force
in the area of origin and as a consequency lack of food supply while it
could cause an excess of labour , increased demand for health and
education services and could create rapid urbanization and development
of towns in the areas of destination.
Therefore - this situation and realities which exist in our
countries have become causes for the failure of our efforts in
development.
d)Population and family planning.
The correation matrix of fertility trends and contraception shows
also that proportion of women using contraception are the most
negatively correlated with fertility and was less degree to the
proportion of children enrolled in secondary schools, the degree of
urbanization, growth of GDP per capita and other factors. The African
countries with low fertility are the countries where the contraceptive
prevalence rate the primary school enrollment of girls, the expenditure
in social sector are very high and the expenditure for defense and
security very low. therefore increase of general education of the
population specially for girls and favorable socio-economic situation
constiute the important elements in the use of contraception and family
planning and consequently control the fertility and better quality of
life.
e) Population and Structural Adjustment Proqrammes.
African countries who have adopted the structural adjustment are
those who have experienced lower GNP per capita, rapid demographic
growth due to high fertility, high proportion of illiterate woman, slow
decrease of infant mortality, high poverty, low rate of prevalence of
contraception, rapid degradation of environment etc.. It also appears
that the adoption of the structural adjustment programme by those
African countries seem to have no amelioration in their critical
situation they were experiencing before the adoption of structural
adjustment programme.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there is no doubt that the population problem in
Africa is real and challenging. The impact of the effect of high birth
and death rates, increasing population size and density,rapid population
growth, and increasing dependency burden all translate into greater
demands on the African governments in productive activities which in
turn accentuate the problems of unemployment, underemployment,
persistent poverty, urban slums, crime and political unrest.
To the extent that population variables influence development and
are also influenced by them, the the theme of this analysis is that if
Africa is to effect changes in the critical growth components of their
populations (especially fertility) consistent with the recommendations
of the Kilimanjaro Programme of Action the Dakar/NGOR Declaration, and
ultimately effect a marked reduction in Africa's population growth
rate, then a viable population policy for the constituent states should
be one integrated into their development plans.
The programme of ..action of ICPD which focused on the control of
population growth mainly by means of family planning and contraceptives
should take into consideration the socio-economic development aspect to
reach objectives.Every country should have the !responsibilities to
tackle prevailing population problems according to its development
policy based on the local cultural,religious , political, ethnic and
demographc diversity.