1. Population and natural resources: the background

2. Population and environment seen from Rio

2.1 Main environmental issues in the region

2.2 Population aspects of environmental issues

2.3 Population and environmental policies

3. Land degradation and its factors in the region

3.1 Levels of degradation

3.2 Types of degradation

3.3 Causes of degradation

4. A close-up on water resource issues

5. Egypt: a short country profile

6. Population-environment linkages and population programmes in the Arab States region

Annex

References

Notes

1. Population and natural resources: the background

By way of factual background Table 1 reports, for the countries of the CST Arab States region, basic demographic characteristics and data on availability of natural resources.1/

There are only two demographically large countries -- Egypt and Turkey -- and half of the other countries have each 3 million inhabitants or less. But population growth is rapid: in 1990-95 six countries grew at rates between 3.3 and 5 percent, implying doubling times between 14 and 21 years. All countries, except Kuwait (who experienced an exceptional out-migration) and Somalia, had growth rates above the average for developing countries, i.e. 1.88 percent. Fertility is still high in the region (TFRs currently reach 4.2 on average in Northern Africa and 4.4 in Western Asia), while crude death rates are down to 9 and 7 per 1,000 respectively in these two sub-regions; immigration further contributes to rapid population increase in several countries, producing some of the highest growth rates in the world.

Urbanization is rather advanced in the region: 54 percent of the total population live in urban areas (compared to 45 percent worldwide and 38 percent in developing regions). With very few exceptions, urban percentages in the countries reviewed here vary between 45 and 97. (The region has an ancient urban civilization based on trade activities, which did not make the transition to a "modern" industry-based type of cities painless, as we shall see.) In addition urbanization proceeds at a rapid pace: during 1990-95 all countries here (again leaving aside Kuwait) had urban growth rates at or above the world average of 2.5 percent -- half of them between 4 and 8 percent.

Unit land resources are very low in the Gulf countries -- where food import capabilities easily obviate this problem --and in Egypt, where those capabilities are lesser (at least in per caput terms). With the exception of Lebanon, Somalia and Yemen, other countries' land resources are above the world average of 0.26 hectare per person -- sometimes much above.

Agriculture however meets an important limiting factor, because water resources are at low or very low levels, usually much below the world average of 20 cubic meters per caput per day. The region as a whole can count on less than 3 m/p/day, and 65 percent of its population has less than 2000 m per year - or 5.5 m per day (World Bank, 1992).

Finally, per caput forest and woodland resources are also very limited: 0.33 hectare on average, far below the world average of 0.75 hectare (and the average falls to 0.15 hectare if Sudan and Somalia are excluded).

2. Population and environment seen from Rio

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992) was the occasion for participating countries to review the state of their environment,

	Population size 1995 (millions)	Population growth rate 1990-95 (%)	Percentage urban 1995	Urban pop. growth rate 1990-95 (%)	Cropland per caput 1993 (ha)	Forest/woodland per caput 1993 (ha)	Renewable water per caput 1995 (m/day)
Morocco	27.0	2.1	48.4	3.1	0.38	0.35	2.8
Algeria	27.9	2.3	55.8	3.8	0.29	0.15	1.7
Tunisia	8.9	1.9	57.2	2.7	0.58	0.08	1.3
Libya	5.4	3.5	86.0	4.3	0.43	0.17	2.3
Egypt	62.9	2.2	44.8	2.6	0.05		2.8
Sudan	28.1	2.7	24.6	4.4	0.49	1.66	11.5
Djibouti	0.6	2.2	82.8	2.7	(..)	(..)	0.1
Somalia	9.2	1.3	25.7	2.5	0.11	1.79	2.5
Saudi Arabia	17.9	2.2	80.2	2.9	0.22	0.11	0.8
Yemen	14.5	5.0	33.6	8.0	0.11	0.15	1.0
Oman	2.2	4.2	13.2	7.8	0.03		2.8
U.A. Emirates	1.9	2.6	84.0	3.4	0.02		0.7
Qatar	0.6	2.5	91.4	2.9	0.01		0.3
Bahrain	0.6	2.8	90.3	3.4	(..)	(..)	0.4
Kuwait	1.5	-6.5	97.0	-6.3			0.3
Iraq	20.4	2.5	74.6	3.2	0.28	0.01	14.6
Jordan	5.4	4.9	71.5	5.9	0.08	0.01	0.7
Syria	14.7	3.4	52.4	4.3	0.42	0.05	4.8
Lebanon	3.0	3.3	87.2	4.0	0.11	0.03	4.2
Turkey	61.9	2.0	68.8	4.4	0.46	0.34	9.0

(..) = information not available = less than 0.005

in order to present national reports at the Conference. Table 2 summarizes the environmental issues identified by sixteen countries of the Arab States region (UN, 1992).2/

2.1 Main environmental issues in the region

Water-related problems stand out in the general picture. All fifteen countries mentioned some form of pollution of water resources (including salinization, which the table presents separately in view of its impact on irrigated agriculture). Ten countries mentioned scarcity problems, i.e. the diminishing ratio of renewable water flow per person (regardless of water quality), which leads some countries to draw on non-renewable reserves or engage in costly desalination systems (see Section 4 below).

These problems are interrelated. On one side, scarcity fosters pollution as the flow becomes insufficient to dissolve the growing wastes and residues of human activities, or as sea water intrudes in overexploited groundwater reserves. On the other, pollution enhances scarcity whenever minimum standards of water quality are no longer met (poor quality water is as good as no water at all).

The other prominent class of problems reported is that regarding soil resources:

- Thirteen countries complained about soil erosion, often to the point of desertification.3/ This is an expected pattern, considering that virtually all countries of the region are affected by arid or semi-arid climatic conditions (and include large desert areas to start with).

- Ten countries mentioned the pollution of soil resources. Although one might have expected oil and other industries to be the main source of this problem, agricultural chemical residues actually are the most frequently cited -- an understandable pattern in areas which heavily depend on irrigation.

- In nine countries, the growth of human settlements (in particular, urbanization) had resulted in the loss of arable land to housing and infrastructure.

Marine resources also are a widespread concern, both for countries bordering the Mediterranean -- by all accounts a highly polluted sea because of its almost closed configuration and of the high concentration of populations and industries on its banks -- and for those along the Gulf with its fragile coastal soils and ecosystems (viz. mangroves or coral reefs) and intense oil industry and shipping activities.

Another noteworthy class of issues has to do with urban environments and their living conditions. The concentration of population appears to often give rise to unmanageable problems, e.g. for housing development, waste management, water supply, air pollution under the impact of industries.

SOIL RESOURCES

WATER RESOURCES

AIR

FOREST RESOURCES

BIO-DIVERSITY

URBAN ENVIRONMENT

MARINE RESOURCES

EROSION

CHEMICAL DEGRADATION, POLLUTION

LOSS TO HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

INDUCED SCARCITY

POLLUTION

SALINIZATION

POLLUTION

DEGRADATION

ENDANGERED SPECIES

CONGESTION, NUISANCES

POLLUTION

PHYSICAL DISTURBANCE

Morocco

On farmland and grazing land.

Pollution by domestic, in-dustrial wastes.

Proliferation of unplanned settlements.

Pollution by domestic, industrial wastes. Eutrophication.

Power plants, oil and chemical stations.

Overexploitation, overgrazing, agricultural encroachment, fuelwood.

Hunting, fishing, settlements.

Population pressure, impacts on living conditions.

Algeria

Agriculture and pastoral activities damage fragile soils. Desert moves northwards.

Serious short-ages expected in medium term.

Poor drinking water;impacts on morbidity, infant mortality.

Housing. Waste management problems.

Tunisia

Water erosion (rain, floods). Desertification.

Resources almost entirely mobilized.

Agricultural waste.

Flora, fauna in decline. Excess fishing + marine pollution.

Industrial & domestic waste, improper sewerage.

From shipping and landbased activities.

Building on shorelines: coastal deterioration.

Egypt

Excessive use of agricultural chemicals.

Urban encroach-ment on arable land.

Rising population pressure scarce resources.

Industrial concen- trations overwork drainage.

Waste dumping, oil.

Sudan

Farming marginal land. Over-grazing, drought desertification.

Pollution by agricultural chemicals.

Uncontrolled urban growth.

Overall water shortage.

From irrigation schemes: agricul-tural chemicals.

Due to burning to expand agri-culture and create pastures etc.

Wildlife depletion due to hunting.

Yes.

Industrial discharges, oil spills.

Djibouti

Hydraulic erosion aggravated by deforestation.

Rapid, unplanned urban growth.

Rising salinity in surface wells.

Fuelwood collec-tion exhausts limited resources.

Fauna threatened.

Inadequate waste management affects health.

Degradation of coral reefs.

Saudi Arabia

Desertification due to salinity and acute erosion.

From mining.

Urbanization pressure on water resources.

Incomplete sewerage. Fertilizer residues. Health hazards.

By industries.

Degradation of marine/land environment affects wildlife.

Yes (sewage, oil, industry, fertilizers etc).

Urbanization of coasts: destabilization.

Yemen

Overgrazing, desertification.

Galloping urbanization.

Declining groundwater reserves.

From irrigated areas.

Yes.

Yes.

Oil.

Oman

Overgrazing; excessive cropping. Desertification.

Toxic wastes.

Yes.

Overpumping ground water for agriculture.

Toxic wastes. Pollution of rural wells, canals.

Yes.

Urban waste dumping threatens mangroves.

Littering, careless fishing threaten coral reefs.

Qatar

Threat of desertification.

By agricultural chemicals.

Yes.

Yes. possible acid rains, smog.

Hunting threatens fauna and flora.

Oil, heavy metals.

Bahrain

Salinization.

Insufficient quantity/quality for agriculture.

Pollution by human waste, oil.

Seawater intrusion.

Oil, sewage, industrial and irrigation effluents.

Land reclamation damages coral reefs, causes siltation.

Iraq

Desertification due to soil mis-management, overgrazing.

Pollution by agricultural chemicals.

Industry, power plants.

Jordan

Overgrazing, soil cover loss, mis-management. Sand expansion.

By herbicides and pesticides.

Declining reserves. Irrigation wasteful.

Domestic waste, herbicides, pesticides affect groundwater.

Yes.

By industries.

Fires, drought, illegal felling.

Health hazards from pollution.

Syria

Desertification.

Cropland lost to housing.

By industries and irrigation.

Forest land lost to housing.

Untreated sewage water: health problem.

Lebanon

Urbanization on agricultural land.

No water treatment system. Groundwater springs are polluted. Health impacts.

Burning low-quality fuel (cheap energy policy).

Lack of resources to protect forests.

Congestion due to demographic pressure.

Beaches polluted by untreated water.

Turkey

Water and wind erosion, coasts and inland.

Industrial wastes. Sewerage inadequate.

Poor quality of fuels. Industrial plants.

Agriculture reclamation; settlements; erosion.

Tourism disturbs marine ecological balance.

Congestion. Unplanned settlements.

Has reduced fish population.

2.2 Population aspects of environmental issues

As suggested by Table 2, demographic factors are sometimes evoked by countries in connection with their environmental problems. Yet two countries only mention population growth as a negative factor on a general level. For Tunisia, rapid population growth "can only have a negative effect of often limited natural resources and the state of the environment". For Sudan, rapid population growth and negative GDP growth "set the scene"; the population factor contributes to producing a serious crisis, e.g. in that it has led to the clearing of more areas for agriculture.

When it comes to population growth in the specific form of urbanization, however, almost all countries appear to be concerned:

- Morocco (population pressure in urban areas and its impact on living conditions, in particular the proliferation of unplanned settlements resulting in slums and loss of arable land);4/

- Algeria (population growth and its related problems such as housing and unemployment);

- Tunisia (settlements on the shores are in part responsible for imbalances in coastal areas and marine ecosystems);

- Egypt (urban encroachment on agricultural lands);

- Sudan (migration to towns, uncontrolled urban growth);

- Djibouti (rapid urban population growth);

- Saudi Arabia (rapid urbanization is one of the causes of coastal destabilization and pollution; need to limit urban expansion in industrial cities);

- Yemen (galloping urbanization and rural exodus);

- Oman (galloping urban development);

- Jordan (need to control sites of human settlements to safeguard agricultural lands);

- Syria (rapid population growth implies increasing demand for housing, which in turn impinges negatively on forests and farmlands);

- Lebanon (demographic pressure is manifest in urban areas; population displacement as well as housing problems have arisen as a result of war; the urbanization of agricultural areas has led to a food deficit).

A different type of issues is indirectly but strongly linked with population growth at the national and urban levels, namely those arising from growing human numbers in the face of fixed water resources. Such problems are noted by several countries, but usually without explicit mention of population factors (the exception being Egypt, who points to rising demographic pressures and diminishing water resources).

For the observer population pressure - in conditions of unchanging or slowly changing technology - also is a factor in:

(a) the extension of agriculture, with encroachment on forests or on marginal lands, which accelerates degradation (Morocco, Sudan);

(b) the overexploitation of the wood cover for domestic uses (Morocco);

(c) increased pollution by domestic wastes (Morocco, Tunisia, Oman).

But this connection is not explicitly made by the national reports.

2.3 Population and environmental policies

At the operational level, there is no evidence that population dimensions of environmental problems are specifically taken into account when it comes to defining objectives and strategies of the policies that address issues of environmental degradation or aim at preservation. Probably, demographic trends are taken as an unescapable aspect of the nexus of problems at hand -- at least in the medium term -- so it is not envisaged to try to alter them in view of possible benefits on the environmental side. Those countries in the region who do have a policy to slow down the rate of population growth (and possibly that of urban growth) do so for a variety of reasons that go much beyond the environmental sector, and indeed did not include that sector at all when these policies were initiated.

On the other hand, there would be room to do much more in terms of using population data and projections at the stage of assessing future environmental problems, priority issues and geographic areas, or identifying "vulnerable" populations in the Agenda 21 terminology (i.e. populations at risk).

Another point is worth noting for those concerned with population advocacy and IEC within the context of population policies. Many of the countries covered here state their reliance on environmental education as one of the instruments to halt in the long run environmental degradation (Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Turkey). Most of these mention the school curricula and mass media as the main instruments for raising awareness in this sector. This deserves attention from the population IEC viewpoint, since programmes in this area provide opportunities to introduce considerations on the linkages between population dynamics and environmental change.

3. Land degradation and its factors in the region

Table 3 presents the main results of a worldwide assessment of soil degradation problems, the GLASOD project, for countries of the region covered by the said project (ISRIC, 1991).

3.1 Levels of degradation

At the global level, 15 percent of the land area was found (around 1989) to be degraded by human activities.5/ For most countries in this region the proportion degraded is higher than this average, sometimes much higher. In addition, for half of the

	Level of degradation (%)				Types of degradation (%)				Causes of degradation (%)
	Total	Light	Moderate	Strong	Water erosion	Wind erosion	Chemical degradation	Physical degradation	Deforestation	Overgrazing	Agricultural activities
Morocco	12	4	6	3	75	14	11	-	30	20	50
Algeria	11	4	5	1	16	50	34	-	12	35	53
Tunisia	56	44	11	-	44	46	10	-	6	78	16
Libya	16	8	8	-	5	89	7	-	1	95	4
Egypt	4	-	3	-	-	29	68	2	2	30	68
Sudan	23	7	14	1	31	40	25	5	10	55	35
Somalia	20	16	1	3	18	80	2	-	-	91	9
Saudi Arabia	27	21	6	-	-	95	5	-	-	97	3
Yemen	30	21	9	-	46	51	4	-	41	55	3
Oman	21	12	10	-	42	56	2	-	22	75	2
U.A. Emirates	20	13	7	-	7	64	28	-	-	72	28
Qatar	18	16	1	-	-	92	8	-	-	92	8
Kuwait	19	19	-	-	-	88	12	-	-	88	12
Iraq	53	2	27	24	6	37	45	11	2	36	61
Jordan	40	23	17	-	10	90	-	-	6	94	--
Syria	37	9	27	1	17	46	37	-	9	46	45
Lebanon	7	-	6	-	99	-	1	-	63	36	1
Turkey	39	-	22	17	93	-	7	-	80	15	5

-- = zero or negligible N.B. Totals may not tally due to rounding.

countries the impact of degradation other than of the "light" type is unusually strong. When the severity of land degradation is taken into account, the picture becomes the following:

- Iraq is by far the most affected country;

- next comes a group comprising Turkey, Syria, Tunisia and Jordan (in descending order); then Yemen, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Oman;

- at the other end of the classification Egypt and Lebanon are the least affected countries.

3.2 Types of degradation

Soil erosion under the action of winds is the main form of land degradation in this region (while in the rest of the world erosion caused by water -- rain, streams and floods -- is the major problem). But water erosion is important in Tunisia, Sudan, Yemen and Oman, and dominant in Morocco, Lebanon and Turkey.6/

Chemical degradation, which accounts for 12 percent of soil degradation at the global level, has a much higher impact in some of the countries reviewed here (Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Algeria in particular). This class of problems essentially includes salinization (typical of irrigated areas, and a major issue in this region), loss of soil nutrients7/ and pollution. Finally, physical degradation has little or no incidence, except in Iraq.8/

3.3 Causes of degradation

GLASOD has also identified for each degraded area the main "causative factor" of the local problems:

- Overgrazing has a much greater impact in this region than at the global level (35 percent of the total extent of degradation worldwide, while here 13 countries surpass that mark and seven reach at least 75 percent, with Saudi Arabia, Libya and Jordan at the top of the list). This is because the region is one of extensive livestock production based on natural rangeland, in dry climate conditions.

- Deforestation, by contrast, plays a much lesser role here than average (36 percent worldwide), the exceptions being Lebanon and Turkey.

The role of population dynamics vis-à-vis other factors in deforestation is a much debated issue. In the Near East and North Africa, forest clearance appears to have occurred mostly under the pressure of needs for more cropland and pastures; in addition, forest degradation occurs because of excess livestock grazing in wooded areas as well as collection of wood for human use, especially fuel.

- Land mismanagement (Table 3: column agricultural activities) has an unusually high impact in five countries (Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq and Syria) if values for these are compared with the world average of 28 percent.

This factor includes e.g. the cultivation of fragile soils, undue reduction of fallow, irrigation of inadequate soils, unwise use of fire and diversion of rivers for irrigation.

Such practices occur only under constraining circumstances, such as the saturation of good lands under population pressure which leads settlers to cultivate inadequate (e.g. shallow or steep) soils, plough fallow land before it has recovered its fertility, or attempt to obtain multiple crops from unsuitable soils by irrigation.

4. A close-up on water resource issues

Because of the water scarcity problem, population growth "is at the heart of the problem of semi-arid development [...] The fundamental importance of water both for habitability and for rural access to biomass for food, fodder, fuelwood and timber makes water scarcity a crucial problem in the struggle for a higher quality of life of poor rural populations"; where habitability is reduced by water shortages, emigration is a habitual consequence (Falkenmark, 1990).

The seriousness of the water issue in this region is well known: "the tightest situation faces the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Out of twenty countries in the region, eleven are already using more than half their water resources. Libya, and all the Arabian peninsula save Oman, are using more than 100 percent. They are relying on expensive desalinization of sea- water, or drawing on underground reserves of fossil water that cannot be replenished. And populations in the region are projected to double, treble or in some cases more than quadruple before stabilizing" (Harrison, 1992).

In effect, situations in 2025 have been projected based on recent population projections and renewable water supply estimates (Engelman and LeRoy, 1993) using the classical scale of levels of competition for water9/. Results show that:

- Lebanon would be one of the 15 countries (worldwide) suffering from water stress.

- Egypt, Morocco and Syria would be among the 9 countries suffering from water scarcity.

- Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen would be among the 22 countries meeting the water barrier before 2025.10/

Country perspective studies confirm this picture. In Jordan, it has been estimated that as the population continues to grow and industry and agriculture continue to develop, demand for water will exceed availability in the near future (Ahmad, 1989). An important factor is the geographical distribution of population: while domestic needs are intrinsically modest (a few cubic meters per person p.a.) the concentration of population through urbanization can create problems, as is the case in the Amman-Zarqa area which concentrates some 60 percent of the national population. In Qatar, water scarcity is identified as the main problem; in the absence of permanent surface water, agriculture is almost entirely dependent on irrigation from pumped groundwater: it is estimated that Qatar aquifers will be depleted in 20 to 30 years at recent rates of groundwater withdrawal. Further, with increasing urban and rural development, groundwater pollution (viz. nitrates) is a clear probability (UNEP, 1987). By and large, similar considerations apply to all countries in the region.

Indeed, one should not focus exclusively on water scarcity. Pollution -- with its implications for human health -- usually is part of the water resources issue, and can indeed be the leading problem. Syria is a case in point: the insufficiency of sanitary sewage disposal systems and increasing dumping of industrial wastes have damaged the Euphrates, Oronte and Barrada river basins. In addition, overpumping of aquifers for irrigation has brought about saltwater intrusions in the coastal plains.

Let us now consider the respective roles of agriculture, industry and domestic uses of water, as reported in Table 4.11/

	Domestic	Industry	Agriculture
Morocco	6	3	92
Algeria	22	4	74
Tunisia	13	7	80
Libya	15	10	75
Egypt	7	5	88
Sudan	1		99
Djibouti	28	21	51
Somalia	3		97
Saudi Arabia	45	8	47
Yemen	5	2	93
Oman	3	3	94
United Arab Emirates	11	9	80
Kuwait	64	32	4
Iraq	3	5	92
Jordan	29	6	65
Syria	7	10	83
Lebanon	11	4	85
Turkey	24	19	57
WORLD	8	23	69

The region is characterized by: (a) a high predominance of agriculture as a water user, due to the absolute need to irrigate most of agricultural lands: all but four countries are above the world average and five are above 90 percent; (b) a very low share of industrial uses: all but two countries are below half of the world average; and (c) a more diversified situation regarding domestic uses, which in some cases are at very low levels.

The implication of these patterns is that there still is quite some potential for increases in water demand, as economies diversify and living standards rise. Unless large gains are made in efficient use of irrigation water and conservation or rehabilitation of damaged irrigated areas, the crunch is likely to severely damage economic competitivity in addition to health and the quality of life.

5. Egypt: a short country profile

Egypt is an extremely arid country with limited land and water resources.12/ Less than 3 percent of its area is cultivated because of water shortage. The Nile is the country's basic life- sustaining system, but the available water is already fully utilized, mainly for agricultural and human use.

Water quality problems arise easily given this saturation. Salinization and waterlogging affect the productivity of crop land. Aquifers are threatened with salinization and pollution. Irrigation canals and drains increasingly suffer from weeds and the accumulation of pesticides.13/ Urban areas and archaeological sites are affected by rises in water tables due to poor drainage. Industrial wastewater and urban sewage are discharged into drains with little or no treatment because of the shortage of wastewater treatment capacity (and of operation and maintenance problems in existing plants). Effluents thus endanger the health and welfare of hundreds of thousands of people. WHO statistics show about 90,000 annual recorded deaths linked to water-borne diseases.

Egypt also suffers from air pollution problems in the main urban areas, where over half of the population resides. Concentrations of carbon monoxide, lead and sulphur dioxide in these areas and other mixed residential-industrial areas are well above acceptable levels. Due to widespread energy inefficiency, CO2 emissions are unnecessarily high. The concentration of airborne dust in Cairo exceeds international standards by a factor of 10. In industrial areas it reduces solar radiation, damaging local vegetation. By damaging limestone monuments, air pollution also affects the country's rich cultural heritage.

The economic consequences of these problems are great, especially for the primary sector. Over one million hectares of irrigated land suffer from salinization, meaning huge losses in forgone output. Fisheries output is reduced in some areas and has generally decreased in value because of excessive contents of toxic substances.14/ Urban drinking water treatment is becoming increasingly costly. And the tourism potential is affected as the cultural and natural heritage deteriorates.

One should also mention a number of problems which threaten biological diversity. Oil pollution damages coastal resources (coral reefs, mangroves, fisheries, birds, beaches etc.) both along the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Tourism also has been seen (e.g. on the Red Sea or in the Aswan area) to cause habitat degradation if not properly managed.

The role of population growth in some of these processes is unquestionable. Land degradation, for instance, has much to do with accelerated agricultural intensification and "the pressure of an increasing population combined with the scarcity of cultivable land, leading farmers to ask more of the land than it can yield" (Kishk, 1986). And the pressure increases all the more rapidly as the spatial growth of human settlements, especially cities, takes a direct toll on the surrounding land resources: based on FAO data it has been estimated for instance that "between 1973 and 1985 Egypt lost 13 percent of her farmland to urban sprawl" (Harrison, 1992). It is commonly said that the land developed thanks to the Aswan Dam merely compensates for that lost to urbanization. In effect, Egypt's arable and permanent crop land in 1993 (2.8 million hectares) was the same as in 1974-76 and less than that in 1969-71 (FAO, 1995).

Of course, impact on the environment varies from one category of population to the other, depending on lifestyles.15/ Overall, however, the mere increase in concentration of human numbers in urban areas overwhelms existing infrastructures and absorbs more and more investment resources.

Egypt certainly exemplifies, on a large scale, many of the population-environment problems of the region, especially those arising from population pressure on agricultural resources. It might seem that the countries with an oil-based economy are much better off; but in reality, the populations of those countries -- relatively small but concentrated in the vicinity of industrial sites -- suffer disproportionately from the impact of industrial activities on a fragile natural environment. And all have in common the severe problem of water resources.

6. Population-environment linkages and population programmes in the Arab States region

Several years ago already UNFPA, in its Handbook of Policy Guidelines, stated its interest for studying selected aspects of the population-environment nexus, namely:

- interactions between population growth or distribution and priority environmental problems (including desertification, deforestation, water pollution, overuse of lands, urban overcrowding etc.);

- the consequences of deteriorating environments on infant mortality, maternal morbidity, food security, employment, migration etc.;

- women as "agents and change" and protectors of the environment;

- the interaction of population factors with other factors of environmental change;

- the population-supporting capacity of agricultural lands in developing countries, particularly in areas of low food security;

- methods to integrate population concerns in planning for sustainable development;

- the problems of especially vulnerable groups (children, landless families, indigenous peoples etc.) at the local level;

- the adaptation of existing methodologies to better conceptualize and communicate population-environment problems for use in IEC activities.

The Handbook further indicates that "country case studies are to be given special attention because they afford the opportunity of examining linkages between population and the environment in different contexts" with regard to political, natural resources and economic circumstances.

We must also refer to the priorities set by the Agenda 21 in the area of demographic dynamics and sustainability (Chapter 5). The focus is on the first programme area, namely "Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the links between demographic trends and factors and sustainable development", where the following activities are proposed (UN, 1993):

(a) "Identifying the interactions between demographic processes, natural resources and life support systems, bearing in mind regional and subregional variations deriving from, inter alia, different levels of development";

(b) "Integrating demographic trends and factors into the ongoing study of environmental change [...] first, to study the human dimensions of environmental change and, second, to identify vulnerable areas";

(c) "Identifying priority areas for action and developing strategies and programmes to mitigate the adverse impact of environmental change on human populations, and vice versa".

We have seen that the countries of the Arab States region are widely affected by environmental problems, many of which are ascribable at least in part to population factors. There is, therefore, ample scope for activities along these lines, for which UNFPA support could be considered.

A first type of activities, aiming at improving the understanding of processes at work, consists in retrospective studies, such as:

1 - Assess the role of population dynamics and other factors with respect to prevailing trends in water supply issues, land degradation, deforestation.

2 - Assess the impact of urban expansion on the state of natural resources (cropland, forests, water).

3 - Assess changes in the quality of urban environment (access to water and sanitation, infrastructure, equipment) and assess their reciprocal causal relationships with the demographic dynamics of the settlements.

Perhaps it is best to mention at this stage an important requisite for the development of further activities in the policy sphere:

4 - Advocacy, i.e. the use of classical information techniques to raise the awareness of government and relevant public agencies staff regarding concrete, priority reciprocal linkages of population dynamics and environmental change at the national and sub-national levels (in light of the knowledge gained through the above activities), and achieve a clear recognition of the need to develop policies that take those linkages into accounts.

Next comes a group of activities more practically oriented towards policy formulation. Some are geared to establish necessary information bases and current diagnoses, such as:

5 - Based on country characteristics, identify specific environmental indicators integrating population dimensions. Look specifically into the feasibility of spatially disaggregated indicators. Set up data collection and processing systems. Where feasible, build retrospective time series for these indicators as a starting point for analysis.

6 - Assess current dimensions of population pressure on water resources: count population by watershed area, assess broad patterns of use by sector.

7 - Identify the vulnerable populations with regard to specific environmental issues, e.g. pollution, water supply problems, deforestation. (Even in the case of a localized problem, those populations may be quite different from those living in the area where the problem arises.)

Other studies are more of the "policy study" type in the strict sense, i.e. geared to assess the implications of alternative courses of action or alternative scenarios regarding exogenous variables; for instance:

8 - Project population impact on various environmental goods (e.g. cropland, building areas, water resources, forests) based on scenarios of population growth, urbanization, consumption patterns. Illustrate potential differences arising from alternative demographic scenarios.

All these activities are meant to produce utilizable results in the policy making context (i.e. the second programme area of the Agenda 21, namely the formulation of integrated environment and development policies taking into account demographic trends and factors). Specific assistance for the latter purpose will often be valuable, mainly in the form of:

9 - Capacity building, e.g. through interdisciplinary workshops making use of practical exercises in formulating environment and development strategies.

Finally, it is worth mentioning again that the linkages between population and environmental change can be an interesting addition to traditional population education themes:

10 - IEC activities addressing the general public could derive arguments inter alia from those linkages, especially where the impact of environmental degradation on people's health and living conditions is more acutely felt. Field experiences in communication campaigns focused on such themes, built upon assessments of the people's perceptions regarding environmental change, its causes and consequences, can be utilized with profit in new contexts.

Needs for these various kinds of inputs to country policies should be systematically assessed in the context of programming at the country level. In addition, there would be great value in undertaking country activities, such as those suggested above, in a coordinated manner in groups of countries that share the same issues and therefore can benefit both from one another's experience, both in data collection/analysis and in applying thematic knowledge to policy making.

The extent of the degradation problem and its patterns vary notably among regions:

- Africa has 25% of wasteland (the highest proportion among regions), 12% lightly or moderately degraded and 4% strongly or extremely degraded land (also the highest proportion). The main type of degradation by far is the loss of topsoil (76% of the degraded area) followed by the loss of soil nutrients (9%).

(Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Lesotho, Morocco and Rwanda are particularly affected.)

- North and Central America has 6% wasteland, 6% lightly or moderately degraded and 1% strongly degraded land. The main types of degradation are the loss of topsoil (75% of the degraded area) and terrain deformation from water erosion (16%, but 40% in Central America).

(Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama are the most affected countries.)

- South America has 1% wasteland, 11% lightly or moderately degraded and 1% strongly or extremely degraded land. The main types of degradation are loss of topsoil from water erosion (39% of the degraded area), loss of soil nutrients (28%) and terrain deformation from water erosion (12%).

(Brazil is particularly affected.)

- Asia has 11% wasteland, 15% lightly or moderately degraded (the highest proportion among regions) and 3% strongly or extremely degraded land. Again the main type is loss of topsoil (71% of the degraded area), the next being terrain deformation (16%); salinization (7%) is significant.

(China, India, Thailand and Vietnam are the most affected countries.)

- Australasia has 11% wasteland, 11% lightly or moderately degraded and a negligible proportion of strongly or extremely degraded land. For 95%, degradation consists in the loss of topsoil.

- Europe has a negligible proportion of wasteland, 22% lightly or moderately degraded and 1% strongly or extremely degraded land. The main types of degradation are loss of topsoil from water erosion (61% of the degraded area) and compaction (15%).

The table below quantifies the area not affected by degradation or wasteland, as a proportion of total land area, by region.

Ahmad, A.A. (1989): Jordan environmental profile: status and abatement. State-of-the-Environment Reports. Amman, USAID.

Arab Republic of Egypt (1994): "Challenges in environment and sustainable development". Consultative Group Meeting, Paris, 25-26 January.

Engelman, E. and P. LeRoy (1993): Sustaining water. Population and the future of renewable water supplies. Washington, Population Action International.

Falkenmark, M. (1990): "Rapid population growth and water scarcity: the predicament of tomorrow's Africa", in: Resources, environment and population (K. Davis and M.S. Bernstam, eds.), pp. 81-94. Supplement to Population and Development Review, vol. 16.

Falkenmark, M. and Widstrand, C. (1992): Population and water resources: a delicate balance. Population Bulletin, vol. 47 no. 3 (Population Reference Bureau, Washington).

FAO (1986): African agriculture: the next 25 years. Rome.

FAO (1995): Country tables. Basic data on the agricultural sector. Rome.

Harrison, P. (1992): The third revolution. Environment, population and a sustainable world. London, I.B. Tauris.

ISRIC (1991): World map of the status of human-induced soil degradation (by L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling and W.G. Sombroek). Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD). Nairobi, UNEP.

Kishk, M.A. (1986): "Land degradation in the Nile valley", Ambio, vol. 15 no. 4, pp. 226-230.

Liamine, N. (1993): "Desertification - The issues and challenges", Ecoforum, vol. 17 no. 1/2 (April) pp. 11-21.

Nelson, R. (1990): Dryland management - The "desertification" problem. World Bank Technical Paper No 116. Washington.

UN (1977): Round-up, Plan of action and resolutions of UNCOD. New York.

UN (1992): Nations of the Earth report. UNCED national reports summaries. New York.

UN (1993): Agenda 21: Programme of action for sustainable development. New York.

UN (1994a): World population prospects: the 1994 revision. New York.

UN (1994b): World urbanization prospects: the 1994 revision. New York.

UNEP (1987): State of the environment: national reports - 1. Qatar. Nairobi.

World Bank (1992): World development report. Development and the environment. Washington.

World Resources Institute (1994): World resources 1994-95. New York, Oxford University Press.

1/ The sources for Table 1 are the following. Population size and growth rate: UN (1994a); urban population percentage and growth rate: UN (1994b); cropland and forest: FAO (1995) or AGROSTAT data base; water resources: derived from Engelman and LeRoy (1993).

2/ Such reports were presented by all countries covered by the CST except Libya, Somalia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. A report was also presented for Palestine, emphasizing the loss of soil resources to erosion and human settlements; soil pollution by agricultural and industrial wastes; water scarcity and pollution by domestic and agricultural wastes; loss of forest areas to agriculture and ensuing loss of biodiversity; and inadequate urban sewerage and waste disposal.

3/ Desertification is only one extreme aspect of the deterioration of ecosystems under the combined pressure of adverse climate and agricultural exploitation (FAO, 1986). The United Nations Conference on Desertification, which popularized the word, defined it as "the reduction or destruction of the land's potential, finally resulting in the appearance of desert conditions" (UN, 1977); one should use it only to designate processes which have resulted in desert conditions or will inevitably do so, but it is often used in the loose sense of land degradation in arid and semi- arid areas. The word "desertification" has other annoying aspects. It tells nothing on the nature of degradation, and misstates problems: "The concept of expanding deserts and advancing sand dunes has become the dominant image in the public's eye rather than [...] less visible and much more serious problems" (Liamine, 1993), in particular "more subtle, more complex, pulsating deteriorations [...] radiating out from centers of excessive population pressure" (Nelson, 1990). Also, it seems to designate an absolute evil, while for instance salinization in an irrigated area, although reversible, is a greater loss than that of the last inch of topsoil in a marginal area.

4/ Texts between parentheses in this paragraph are taken from: UN (1992).

5/ For a comparison of land degradation patterns among regions of the world, see the Annex.

6/ Globally 83 percent of land degradation is in the form of erosion: 70 percent mere loss of topsoil and 13 percent more severe terrain deformation.

7/ Either through depletion (from cultivating poor or mediocre soils without sufficient fertilization) or through erosion.

8/ This includes mainly soil compaction and the waterlogging of irrigated areas (together affecting less than 5 percent of degraded areas worldwide).

9/ Population pressures under 600 persons per flow unit (P/FU; 1 FU = 1 million cubic meters) are not considered a serious issue, although water quality problems and dry season supply problems may occur. Between 600 and 1000 P/FU, chances of more recurrent quantitative or/and qualitative supply problems increase notably: this is called the "water stress" stage. Between 1000 and 2000 P/FU such problems are common and affect human and economic development; this is the "scarcity" stage. 2000 P/FU is seen as the maximum population pressure that can be handled in the present state of technology and management capabilities; it has been labelled "water barrier". This scale was developed from the observation of areas where both per caput supplies and resource use problems were well documented.

10/ Scarcity-related concepts are indicative, in view of the varying adaptive capacities of countries. In particular, the water barrier concept should not be taken literally; even if water shortage is indeed a medium-term barrier to development, there is a priori no indication that solutions for the long term cannot be found. Rather than impending absolute physical limits, the indicator warns of steeply increasing costs of supply on account of increased investment and recurrent expenditure for water supply, treatment and/or re-use; in turn the cost issue points to likely social problems for cost recovery. On the other hand, "in arid conditions, the problem is more complex because of considerable seasonal variations in rainfall. The largest need for irrigation water is during the dry season when the water accessible to people can be as low as 10 percent of the annual flow. Even countries with an average competition level of only 50 [P/FU] have considerable allocation problems during the dry season"; in addition, "national figures do not reflect the stress on water resources quality in local areas exerted by rapid urbanization and industrialization" (Falkenmark and Widstrand, 1992).

11/ Figures in Table 4 are taken from: World Resources Institute (1994).

12/ Unless otherwise indicated, the contents of this section are taken mostly from: Arab Republic of Egypt (1994).

13/ "Irrigation practices and intensive agriculture [lead] to various forms of serious degradation [...] Soils are polluted primarily by pesticides, which are very intensively applied to the fields (in particular the half-million hectares under cotton plantations)" (Kishk, 1986).

14/ Fish production has dropped by about 70 percent in Lake Maryut since the 1970s, and Lake Manzala is similarly polluted. Nile fisheries have collapsed, as have Mediterranean sardine fisheries. Egypt now imports some 150,000 tons of fish annually.

15/ In Cairo, household waste in upper-income households is about three times that for low-income [S. Cointreau (1984): Recycling from municipal refuse, World Bank technical paper 30, Washington, cited by Harrison (1992)].