UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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This document is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) Gopher of the United Nations Population Division,
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis,
in collaboration with the European Association for Population
Studies and the IUSSP. For further information please contact
Professor G.C. Blangiardo, Local Organizer, EAPS Conference, Milan,
University of Milan, Istituto di Statistica, V. Visconti di Modrone
21, Milan, Italy.
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EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION IN EUROPEAN POPULATION?
EVOLUTION OU REVOLUTION DANS LA POPULATION EUROPEENNE?
Volume I
PLENARY SESSIONS
EUROPEAN POPULATION CONFERENCE
CONGRES EUROPEEN DE DEMOGRAPHIE
Milano
4 - 8 settembre 1995
EAPS - AEEP
EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION FOR POPULATION STUDIES
ASSOCIATION EUROPEENNE POUR L'ETUDE DE LA POPULATION
IUSSP - UIESP
INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR THE SCIENTIFIC STUDIES OF POPULATION UNION
INTERNATIONALE POUR L'ETUDE SCIENTIFIQUE DE LA POPULATION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMITEE
COMITE INTERNATIONAL D'ORGANISATION
Charlotte H”hn (Germany)
Nico Van Nimwegen (the Netherlands)
Dragana Avramov (Belgium)
Gian Carlo Blangiardo (Italy)
Gerard Calot (France)
Graziella Caselli (Italy)
Paolo De Sandre (Italy)
Allan G. Hill (USA)
Giuseppe A. Micheli (Italy)
NATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMITEE
COMITE NATIONAL D'ORGANISATION
Gian Carlo Blangiardo
Anna Maria Birindelli
Carlo Maccheroni
Graziella Caselli
Paolo De Sandre
Lorenzo Del Panta
Luigi Di Comite
Antonio Golini
Giuseppe A. Micheli
Antonio Santini
EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION IN EUROPEAN POPULATION?
The study of change is basic to all social sciences. There are
numerous theories to explain the rate and direction of social and
demographic change, some focused on transitions in individual life
styles and life courses, others more concerned with family,
community and societal transformations. At certain moments, these
transitions, at the level of the individuals as well as for
larger social groupings, occur so quickly that they represent
major breaks with past, more evolutionary trends. Is contemporary
Europe in one of these periods when a break with the past is
in view?
Fertility in numerous countries has fallen to levels never
before observed; in some regional subpopulations total
fertility rates are close to one. Mortality has fallen to low
levels but significant health, morbidity and mortality
differentials, both socio-economic and regional, may be observed.
The survival of older persons improves continuously, resulting
in major changes in the overall age structure of the population,
but again with very different patterns. Changes in living
arrangements, depending on union and fertility biography,
including marriage, family formation and divorce, have given
rise to a much more diversified household structure of the
population. Living alone, unmarried cohabitation, single
parents and reconstructed families are among the living
arrangements which make for a more complex life course. Added to
these changes, there is the resurgence of major international
population movements, both voluntary and involuntary. All of
the changes, breaks with past-1945 trends, imply major shifts
in individual behaviour and in social organization, which occur
within changing geopolitical and socio-economic frameworks where
both integration and disintegration processes are at work. The
1995 European Population Conference hopes to capture some of
these major shifts in population dynamics and to explain how
individual and population transitions are redrawing the map of
Europe 2000.
Contents
Table des matiŠres
OPENING SESSION
Population issues in Europe, by Charlotte H”hn p. 9
1.Population issues - the political flavour p. 9
2.The political underpinning of population p. 10
3.Population studies, demographers and
population issues p. 11
4.Fertility decline p. 13
5.Population ageing p. 16
6.International migration p. 18
7.Mortality decline and differentials p. 20
8.The demographic impact of policies p. 22
9.References p. 25
PLENARY 1
Becoming a parent in Europe, by John Hobcraft and
Kathleen Kiernan p. 27
1.Introduction p. 27
2.Why do people become parents? p. 29
3.Transition to parenthood - the demographics p. 43
4.Basic requirements for whether to have a
child now p. 45
5.His and her transitions to parenthood p. 49
6.Becoming a parent in Europe since the
1930s - a bold explanatory sketch p. 53
7.References p. 61
PLENARY 2
From state to market economy: the population dimension,
by Jerzy Z. Holzer p. 67
1.Introduction p. 67
2.Economic factors of system transformation p. 74
3.Social and psychological aspects of change p. 76
4.Expected influence of system transformation on
population processes p. 78
5.Migrations p. 87
6.Conclusions p. 90
7.References p. 93
PLENARY 3
Where did they all come from? Typology and geography of
European mass migration in the twentieth century,
by Rainer Mnz p. 95
1.Introduction p. 95
2.Types and stages of mass migration in Europe p. 97
3.The changing course of European migration, 1950-1993 p. 110
4.Migration, public opinion and public policy p. 138
5.References p. 146
PLENARY 4
New forms of social organization and interpersonal relationships
in ageing societies, by Giovanni Sgritta p. 155
1.Premise p. 155
2.Ageing societies and generational relationships p. 156
3.Exchanges: family ethic and welfare provisions p. 160
4.Conflicting interests: the value of children p. 161
5.The ®demographic¯ division of welfare p. 162
6.The social (ri-)production of poverty p. 167
7.Generational iniquity: conflicting views p. 170
8.Equity or conflict? p. 173
9.Changing family patterns p. 180
10.Marital disruption and childbearing p. 181
11.®Blaming the victims¯: women's virtues and
public vices p. 184
12.Kin availability: present and future prospects p. 187
13.Hopes and options: concluding remarks p. 192
14.References p. 195
PLENARY 6
®God has chosen to give the easy problems to the physicists¯
or why demographers need theory, by Guillaume Wunsch p. 201
1.The need for theory p. 201
2.Theories, laws, and explanation p. 204
3.Do demographers have theories? p. 216
4.Discussion and conclusions p. 220
5.References p. 222
PLENARY 7
Is there a new conservatism that will bring back the old
family? Ideational trends and the stages of family formation
in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, 1981-1990,
by Ron Lesthaeghe and Guy Moors p. 225
1.Introduction p. 225
2.The scope of the present paper p. 228
3.The ideational dimensions: four components of
conventionalism p. 230
4.The components of conventionalism and demographic
characteristics of the life course p. 236
5.The trends in the ideational components by cohort,
1980-1990 p. 250
6.Conclusions p. 261
7.References p. 263