UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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ESA/P/WP.123*
16 February 1994
ENGLISH ONLY
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POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:
LITERATURE SURVEY AND RESEARCH BIBLIOGRAPHY
*Preliminary, unedited version prepared by the Population
Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and
Policy Analysis, United Nations Secretariat. It is being made
available in its present form to solicit comments and suggestions,
which should be sent to the Director, Population Division, United
Nations, 2 United Nations Plaza (Rm. DC2-1950), New York, NY 10017,
USA. The final version will be published at a later date.
Grateful acknowledgement is due to the United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) for providing the financial support which made the
preparation of this monograph possible.
===================================================================
CONTENTS
Page
Introduction
PART ONE. REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH
Chapter
I. Overview of conceptual approaches. . . . . . . . . 3
II. Current research on population and the environment
in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . 7
A. Carrying capacity and macro models . . . . . . . . . . 7
B. Agricultural land. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
C. Forests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
D. Urban areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
E. Freshwater resources . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
PART TWO. GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
III. Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
IV. Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
V. Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
ANNEXES
I. Specific recommendations for future research issues,
by literature survey topic . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
II. Selected list of institutions involved in research on
population-environment relations . . . . . . . . . . 36
PART THREE. BIBLIOGRAPHY
References by author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
References by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
References by subject. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
=================================================================
Introduction
Research on the topic of population and the environment was
given renewed impetus by the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
Chapter 5 of Agenda 21, which was adopted by the Conference,
recommended the development and dissemination of knowledge on the
links between demographic trends and sustainable development
(United Nations, 1993). The following literature survey and
bibliography represent a response by the Population Division of the
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis
of the United Nations Secretariat to that recommendation as well as
a contribution to the preparation of the International Conference
on Population and Development. The purpose of the present paper is
threefold:
(a) To provide a comprehensive bibliography on current
research and theory addressing population and the environment;
(b) To review a selection of key current research on
population and the environment in developing countries; and
(c) To make specific recommendations for further research.
Research addressing population-environment relationships
continues to be carried out across different disciplines.
Therefore, a comprehensive survey of current research on population
and the environment would involve reviewing studies across many
different disciplines. Since this is beyond the scope of the
current activity, a more selective approach has been adopted here.
The present bibliography and literature review adopt several
specific foci that define their scope. First, the target audience
is social scientists and policy makers and programme planners that
draw upon social science findings. Emphasis is placed on research
being carried out by demographers, although the population-related
work of anthropologists, economists, geographers and other social
scientists is also represented.
The bibliography and literature survey should be useful to
anyone interested in obtaining more information on the topic. The
geographic focus is on the developing world. The relationships
between population and the environment in the developed world are,
however, inevitably touched upon in some of the references
discussed. The bibliography and literature survey of current
research presented here complements several existing reviews of
information on population-environment relationships, which have
aimed at presenting a brief overview of issues, e.g., Jolly, 1991;
Population Information Program, 1992; and de Sherbinin, 1993.
The Literature Survey
The literature review begins with a general consideration of
conceptual approaches and followed by a review of individual
studies. The literature survey covers only a sample of references
from the bibliography. It focuses on recent research rather than
attempting to carry out a comprehensive historical review. The
majority of the studies cover the period 1990-1993. Although
population-environment relationships are multidirectional, the
majority of recent research focuses on population impacts on the
environment. The studies considered in the present literature
review generally reflect this orientation. The impact of
environmental change on population in relation to health, however,
is specifically considered in the subsection addressing urban areas
(see section II.D below). The specific topics covered by the
literature survey include: (a) carrying-capacity and modelling; (b)
agricultural land and rangelands; (c) forests; (d) urban areas; and
(e) freshwater resources. The topics of agricultural land (b) and
forests (c) are further organized by developing region (Africa,
Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean). The
degradation of oceans and fisheries, depletion of energy resources,
climate change, ozone depletion and loss of biodiversity, which are
not extensively covered in the bibliography (see below) are not
explicitly addressed in the literature survey. These topics,
however, are indirectly addressed in the context of other issues.
For example, energy resources are addressed in terms of fuelwood
use in the subsection on forests (see section II.6).
Studies are assessed as far as possible relative to: (a)
geographical area and time period covered; (b) conceptual approach;
(c) type of data used; (d) methodological approach; and (e) main
substantive findings.
General recommendations for future research
General recommendations for future research based on the
literature survey are made relative to issues, methods and data.
Specific recommendations for future research by literature survey
topic (carrying-capacity and macro models; agricultural land;
forests; urban areas; and freshwater resources) are presented in
annex I. Annex II contains a list of selected institutions that
were found to be currently involved in research on population and
the environment in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe and the
United States in the course of compiling the literature survey and
bibliography.
The bibliography
The bibliography aims to cover as completely as possible
recent research on population-environment relationships and to
include select historical works. As indicated above, several
specific topics related to population and the environment
(degradation of oceans and fisheries, depletion of energy
resources, climate change, ozone depletion, and loss of
biodiversity) are not extensively covered in the bibliography since
their inclusion would have necessitated a review of literature on
developed countries as well, which time did not allow. These
topics have, however, been addressed briefly in another recent
literature review and bibliography (de Sherbinin, 1993). Time and
resources also did not allow complete access to all important
sources of information. As a result, research in languages other
than English, in particular in French, Spanish, German, Russian and
Swedish, has not been carefully covered. Also research occurring
in the developing countries, which has not yet been documented in
English, has also generally not been covered. These omissions
undoubtedly lead to some lack of representativeness in geographical
and topical coverage and conceptual and methodological approaches.
=================================================================
PART ONE. REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH
I. Overview of current conceptual approaches
The Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives represent the two
dominant historical viewpoints on population-environment
relationships. Malthus (1798 and 1803, republished 1960)
postulated that whereas human population has a tendency to grow
geometrically, agricultural production of food grows only
arithmetically. In this way, population growth tends to outstrip
the productive capabilities of land resources. The result is that
"positive" checks, such as famine and increased mortality, or
preventative checks, such as postponement of marriage and
limitation of family size, work to reduce population growth back to
zero. In more general terms, the Malthusian viewpoint suggests
that limited natural resources place a restriction on population
growth. This viewpoint has informed much popular discourse on
population-environment relations, most notably the work of Brown
and others (1976), Ehrlich (1968), Ehrlich and Holdren (1971 and
1974), Ehrlich and others (1977), Eckholm (1976), Hardin (1968) and
Meadows and others (1972 and 1992), and emphasizes the "limits" to
population growth. De Sherbinin (1993) has reviewed this viewpoint
at some length elsewhere.
Malthusian theory, formulated before the agricultural
revolution, is built upon the assumption that environmental
resources such as land are fixed. Malthus did not foresee the
technological changes that have accompanied modernization and
allowed agricultural output to increase faster than population
growth. Boserup (1965, 1976 and 1981), however, explicitly takes
into account technological change. Moreover, Boserup suggested
that in some cases population growth and resulting increased
population density might induce technological changes that allow
food production to keep pace with population growth. Simon (1981
and 1990) went further to suggest that population growth induces
sufficient technological change to expand food output faster than
population. The dominance of either Malthusian or Boserupian
thought in the discussion of population-environment relationships
has led to opposing "limits to growth" and "cornucopian"
perspectives (Hogan, 1992a).
It is important to note that neither Boserup nor Malthus
specifically addressed population-environment relations, per se,
but rather land use and food production in relation to population.
Implications for population and environment relationships have,
however, been inferred a posteriori from their work. Both the
Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives imply linear relationships
between population and the environment (figure I). Social and
natural scientists have, however, also introduced other nonlinear
ways of thinking about population-environment relationships. These
non-linear views may consider the "multiplicative" effects between
population and other factors (consumption or technology) in
producing environmental impacts or, alternatively, the "mediating"
effect that other factors (socioeconomic, institutional and
cultural) may have on population-environment relationships (figure
I). Three distinct perspectives may thus be distinguished in
current research and conceptual thought addressing
population-environment relationships.
1. Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives imply direct
relationships between population and the environment, or between
population, technological change and the environment. The origins
of Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives are discussed above. The
Malthusian viewpoint has had a direct influence on the development
of the concept of carrying capacity. As defined by Higgins and
others (1982), this concept implies that the ability of land to
produce food is limited. Exceeding those limits will, in the long
term, result in degradation and declining land productivity. As a
result, there are higher levels of population than can be supported
from any given land area. Population ecology and human ecology,
which deal with questions of environmental carrying capacity,
equilibrium and optimum population size, also reflect this
perspective (Hawley, 1986; Drummond, 1975). The concept of
carrying capacity has led to several studies and modelling
exercises which are discussed further below (see section II.A).
The Boserupian perspective has also had an influence on current
research which examines the relationship between population growth,
technological change in agriculture and environmental impacts.
2. Multiplicative perspectives present the view that
population (size, growth, density and distribution) interacts in
multiplicative way with other factors, such as levels of
consumption and technology, to have impacts on the environment.
One of the most frequently used multiplier approaches, is the
"I=PAT" equation. Total environmental impacts (I) are seen as a
product of population size (P), the level of affluence or per
capita consumption (A), and the level of technology (T) (Ehrlich
and Holdren, 1971 and 1974; Harrison, 1992; Commoner, 1991 and
1992). The IPAT equation implies that although population,
consumption or technology might be considered as independent causes
of environmental impact, it is their combined effect which is of
most interest. The "I=PAT" approach has been criticized on the
basis that "P", "A" and "T" are, in fact, not independent, as the
equation implies, and that important political and institutional
variables affecting resource use, for example, the distribution of
land, are not accounted for (Shaw, 1993).
Shaw (1989c) has proposed an alternative multiplicative
conceptual scheme. In doing so, he distinguished between "ultimate
causes," or the driving forces behind environmental impacts, and
"aggravating factors." In the case of environmental degradation,
ultimate causes are polluting technologies, high consumption
levels, warfare, land and urban mismanagement policies, socio-
economic institutions, and poverty (Shaw, 1989c; Hogan, 1992a).
Population, in contrast, is viewed not as a cause but, rather, as
an aggravating factor that multiplies the scale at which the
ultimate causes of environmental degradation (polluting
technologieses etc.) operate.
==================================================================
Figure I. Current conceptual perspectives on
population-environment relationships
(A)
Malthusian: Population <-----> Environment
Boserupian: Population -----> Technology ------> Environment
(B)
Multiplicative: E = P x A x T
(C)
Mediating: Social,
Institutional,
Cultural factors
Population --------------- Environment
=================================================================
3. Mediating perspectives emphasize that social, cultural
and institutional factors play a mediating role in determining
population-environment relationships. Social scientists are
inclined to consider the impact of social, cultural and
institutional factors on population-environment relationships, and
much recent research implicitly or explicitly reflects this
viewpoint. Blaikie and Brookfield (1987) and Bilsborrow (1987,
1992a and 1992b) emphasize the mediating role played by social,
economic and institutional factors, in particular, that of policy
and the state. The influence of those factors on
population-environment relationships is viewed as multilevel so
that layers of mediating variables at the household, community,
national and international levels must be considered.
In the context of Latin America, Bilsborrow (1992a and 1992b)
has formulated a framework that specifies the mediating effects of
socio-economic and institutional factors on population-environment
relationships. Drawing on the work of Malthus, Kingsley Davis
(1963) and Ester Boserup (1965 and 1981), Bilsborrow asserts that
a growing population creates pressures on living standards that
lead to a multiphasic response, which includes expanding the area
under cultivation or reducing fallow time as first resorts.
Populations, however, may also respond to these pressures by
altering their fertility (postponing marriage, reducing marital
fertility), changing technology (use more fertilizer and
irrigation) or out-migration. Furthermore, the existence of any
one response makes the others less likely. However, the nature of
a population's response to resource pressure is determined by
socio-economic and institutional factors, including: (a) rural
poverty; (b) population growth and population growth interacting
with poverty through land fragmentation; (c) Government policies
influencing agricultural technology; (d) economic growth; (e)
internal and external demands for agricultural and wood products;
and (f) infrastructure such as roads.
McNicoll (1990 and 1992a) focused on social and cultural
rather than policy factors that mediate population and the
environment relations. In contrast to the direct relationship
between other animals and the environment, he suggested that social
organization and culture filter and focus the relationship between
human populations and their environment (McNicoll, 1992a). He
proposed that population growth might also alter the social
structure such that new technologies or social forms arose which
might change the relationship between population and the
environment (McNicoll, 1990). Hogan (1992a) adopted a similar
view, stating that "the damage worked by numbers is always
conditioned by the technology employed and directed by the social
constraints in place" (1992a, p. 114).
Another perspective within the mediating viewpoint collapses
all social, cultural and institutional factors that mediate
population-environment relationships into the larger concept of
"development". This view focuses on the way in which development
processes mediate population and the environment relations and
reflects what Jolly (1991) has termed a "dependency perspective"
(Murdock, 1980), which stresses the overwhelming role that
international political and economic forces and the process of
dependent development has played in shaping both demographic and
environmental outcomes in developing countries. This viewpoint
suggested that environmental degradation and population growth were
interrelated since both derived from poverty resulting from
core-periphery dynamics. A variation of this perspective (Martine,
1992 and 1993b) suggested that the major global environmental
problems, for example, depletion of ozone, greenhouse effects,
toxic waste accumulation and loss of biodiversity, were the direct
results of the prevailing model of development. Duplication of
this model in rapidly growing developing countries, as is the
current tendency, is seen as only compounding negative
environmental impacts.
The conceptual approaches presented above are not necessarily
mutually exclusive. Indeed, many studies contain elements of more
than one perspective. In other studies, the conceptual basis is
not explicitly stated and must be inferred. For this reason, the
following literature review does not attempt to specifically
classify studies in relation to the above-mentioned perspectives.
However, the classifications considered above may serve as a useful
heuristic device, which the reader can use in evaluating both
studies covered in the present literature review and in general.
=================================================================
II. Current research on population and the environment
in developing countries
A. Carrying capacity and macro models
As noted above, the concept of carrying capacity as defined by
Higgins and others (1982) presumes that there are critical levels
of population that any given land area can support. This level or
"carrying capacity" is determined by soil and climatic conditions
and technological inputs (e.g., fertilizer and irrigation). The
concept of carrying capacity has also formed the basis for numerous
macro-model studies that have aimed to predict limits to population
growth which explains their consideration together within this
section.
In the 1970s Meadows and others (1972) developed the "WORLD"
macro model to estimate global carrying capacities and limits to
population growth (this global exercise was repeated more recently
by Meadows and others (1992)). Subsequent to this landmark global
study, Higgins and others (1982) applied a different methodology to
estimate carrying capacity in terms of "potential population
supporting capacities" for 117 developing countries, in particular.
For each country the potential population capable of being
supported was calculated based on the aggregate country-specific
caloric requirements of the population, climatic variability, soil
productivity, rainfall and natural erosion, which depends primarily
on the slope. Calculations were carried out separately using low-,
intermediate- and high- technology input assumptions. The three
input levels assumed, respectively: (a) only hand labor, no
fertilizer and pesticides, and the current crop mixture; (b) hand
tool and draught labor, some fertilizer and pesticides, and the
current mixture of crops plus some calorie productive crops; and
(c) fully mechanized labor, optimum fertilizer and pesticide use,
and only the most calorie-productive crops. Present and projected
irrigated and rainfed land was also taken into account at each
input level. The results indicate that by the year 2000, the
majority (64) of the countries considered would be unable to meet
their food needs under low-input assumptions which were thought to
be most realistic.
The concept of carrying capacity also underlies several recent
simulation and modelling exercises that examine
population-environment relationships in developing countries,
including the SOCIOMAD model of the Sahel (Picardi, 1974), the POMA
(poblacion y medio ambiente) interactive model of population and
the environment in urban areas (Arcia and others, 1991; discussed
further below in II.D), the International Institute of Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA) Systems Model for Mauritius (Lutz, 1991),
and the Enhancement of Carrying Capacity Options (ECCO) model
(Gilbert and Braat, 1991). An extensive review of these models is
found in Sanderson (1992). Barlow and others (1992) have also
reviewed the IIASA model, in which demographic parameters are taken
as exogenous.
At the individual country level, Western (1988) has estimated
the carrying capacity of Palawan island in the Philippines by
ecological zone. Western pointed out that the estimation of
carrying capacity was difficult because per capita resource
consumption by humans varied since people control to some extent
the natural resources they depended upon. At the same time, they
may reduce carrying capacities by environmental mismanagement. The
case-study of Palawan was chosen because it was recently subjected
to rapid population growth due to inmigration from other islands
where plantation operations collapsed and political strife existed.
Current population and land use trends were projected into the
future for six ecological zones (shore, mangroves, lowlands, low
hills, steep hills and mountains) under three different scenarios
(maximum development, maximum conservation and a compromise between
the two). The results indicated that steep hills and mountain
zones would be subject to the greatest environmental degradation in
the future and that the compromise scenario was best. Western also
suggested the need to direct settlement away from highland zones
and to seek a balance between conservation and development.
Carrying capacity estimates have also been prepared for
Eastern Kenya -- Meru, Machakos, Kitui and Kajiado districts --
(Bernard and others, 1989). Bernard and others recognized that,
although the majority of the Kenyan population is rural, only 17
per cent of the land in Kenya has medium or high agricultural
potential. Colonial policies exacerbated this situation by
concentrating the limited high potential agricultural land in
large-scale farms and ranches and low potential land in native
reserves. This has resulted in higher population densities on the
least productive land while other potentially productive areas
remain sparsely populated and underexploited. Population pressures
on former reserves have resulted in out-migration to the less
fertile arid and semi-arid lands in Eastern Kenya where rapid
population growth (approximately 2.5-3 per cent per annum) has
ensued. The projections of carrying capacity for Eastern Kenya
accounted for: density patterns; agro-ecological zones; minimum
farm size needed to sustain an average household each year
(calculated by considering food crop yields and calories derived
from food crops); total area; and cultivable area. Projections
were made under three technology scenarios (current low levels,
intermediate levels drawing on some use of intensive technologies,
and high technology levels involving the extensive use of intensive
technologies and conservation) and three population growth
scenarios (2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 per cent per annum). Results indicate
that even under the most optimistic combinations of technology and
population growth (high technology and low population growth)
carrying capacities will be surpassed in all districts of Eastern
Kenya by 2020. The authors concluded that Eastern Kenya's limited
resource base and rapid rate of population growth required
comprehensive rural and regional development planning.
The National Population Council of Mexico (CONAPO) (1991) has
collected data and carried out a series of regional carrying-
capacity calculations, resulting in estimates for 205 micro-regions
of the country (Garcia de Alba, 1993). According to those
estimates, over one third (37 per cent) of the country, mainly the
Pacific coastal area, has the capacity to absorb additional
population and further develop agricultural, fishing and livestock
resources. Another third of the country, mainly parts of the north
and east, is capable of supporting its current population. A final
third of the country, comprised mainly of arid regions in the north
and center, has a very low capacity for absorbing additional
population. Garcia de Alba (1993) and CONAPO recommended that this
information be used to select regions for future development and to
orient future migration flows.
Criticisms of the concept of carrying capacity have pointed
out that it did not adequately account for the potential impact of
technological change, aspirations for higher standards of living,
possibilities for and effects of international trade, and
institutional, social, economic and political constraints on land
use and production (Mahar, 1985; Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; de
Sherbinin, 1993; Leff, 1993; Zaba and Scoones, forthcoming).
Boserup (1965), in emphasizing the impact of technological change
also offered an implicit criticism of carrying capacity.
In response to those criticisms, Hogan (1992a and 1993a) has
recently asserted that the concept of carrying capacity continues
to have relevance as a heuristic device and that recent attempts to
calculate carrying capacities had more effectively taken into
account variations in institutional and socio-economic factors.
Hogan and Burian (1993) have carried out a review of existing
concepts of carrying capacity. They concluded that the concept
represented an important tool for considering the relationship
between population and sustainable development if it can be
extended to include other basic needs besides food (e.g., access to
water) as well access factors other than the natural distribution
of resources (e.g., social, cultural and political constraints).
They applied such a wider definition of the concept in considering
the carrying capacity of river resources in the Brazilian state of
Sao Paulo. They concluded that the carrying capacity of those
river resources was highly dependent on the patterns of
development.
B. Agricultural land
The relationship between population and land degradation is of
particular importance in developing countries where much of the
population still depends directly on land-based subsistence
production. Although global estimates of land degradation are
fraught with measurement difficulties, there is mounting evidence
that land degradation is increasing in developing countries (United
Nations, 1989; United Nations, 1991). These trends have also
coincided with slower growth in food output in Africa and Latin
America, which has become a major concern (United Nations, 1989;
World Bank, 1992).
Africa
Africa has recently experienced declines in per capita food
production, concurrent with the world's highest population growth
rates and indications that land resources are in many cases
deteriorating. In this context, several recent studies explore the
degree to which Boserupian intensification (Boserup, 1965) in
agriculture may or may not be occurring in Africa, and, in turn,
what impact intensification has on land degradation. Because of
the arid nature of many regions in Africa, desertification has also
been a focus of recent study in the region.
Cleaver and Schreiber (1992) hypothesized that a "population,
agriculture and environmental nexus" existed in Africa whereby
rapid population growth, environmental degradation and poor
agricultural production were causally related. They undertook a
descriptive analysis of World Bank and FAO production data on
population and agriculture in 38 sub-Saharan African countries
during the 1980s to explore this hypothesis. They observed that
traditional production systems in Africa had rarely changed in the
face of rapid population growth caused by declining mortality
although some intensification of land use, by more frequent
cropping, had occurred with increased population growth and
increased density. In the absence of sufficient technological
change, intensification had led "growing poor rural populations to
increasingly degrade and mine the natural resources of the rural
environment to ensure their own day-to-day survival" (p. viii).
Concurrently, rapid population growth has accompanied breakdowns in
communal land management controls and a "tragedy of the commons"
(Hardin, 1968) has often ensued. The authors asserted that those
concurrent adverse population-environmental trends had contributed
to slow agricultural growth. They concluded that a "population,
agriculture and environment nexus" did, indeed, exist in Africa.
Lele and Stone (1989) also carried out a study based upon
population census, agricultural production and land-use data
(collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO) from national agricultural censuses) in six African
countries (Cameroon, and the United Republic of Tanzania, Kenya,
Malawi, Nigeria and Senegal) during the 1970s and 1980s. The
purpose was to determine the degree to which Boserupian
intensification occurred in response to rapid population growth.
The authors identified two types of population-induced
intensification processes occurring in Africa. "Autonomous
intensification", in which population density increases the
frequency of cropping without additional inputs or which involves
the exploitation of increasingly marginal lands, was pervasive in
all the countries considered. In contrast, "policy-led
intensification" in which the availability of incentives allows
shifts to crops of higher value and yields through the use of
inputs such as fertilizer, occurred only in Cameroon, Kenya and
Malawi where stable policy environments existed. Lele and Stone
(1989) asserted that limits existed to autonomous intensification
under conditions of continuous population growth existed since it
involved the continual depletion of forestry and soil resources.
They suggested that addressing the problems of rapid population
growth and environmental stress in Africa required more active
policy intervention by Governments to, among other things, equalize
access to land, support crop research on high-yield variety crops,
and extend access to credit and fertilizer so that greater
"policy-led intensification" could occur.
Hyden and others, (1993) also undertook descriptive analyses
of data on demographic, agricultural production and economic trends
in five African countries (Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uganda and the
United Republic of Tanzania) to investigate the degree to which
population growth had encouraged Boserupian intensification as well
as shifts to a more diversified economy and higher standards of
living during the 1980s. Their results, in a sense, provided a
striking contrast to Cleaver and Schreiber (1992). They observed
that "farmers have managed their lands, even under severe
pressures, in a manner that has permitted sustained use to date"
(Hyden and others, 1993, p. 409) and asserted that "quite high
levels of population density may be accommodated in many parts of
the subcontinent before agriculture involutes or stagnates" (Hyden
and others, 1993, p. 406). Their findings on economic
diversification associated with increased population density are,
however, not conclusive. Male labor out-migration, accompanied by
the concurrent intensification of female farm labor was the most
frequent type of diversification observed such that "there is
evidence that the rural populace is working longer hours to feed
itself" (Hyden and others, 1993, p. 407). They concluded that
population growth had both negative and positive consequences for
agricultural production and suggested the need for further research
on how African farmers were responding to population growth.
Tiffen and Mortimore (1992) had undertaken a historical
analysis of the relationship between population growth,
agricultural production and land degradation between 1930 and 1990
in the Machakos District of Kenya through the analysis of
district-level population censuses and agricultural, economic and
land survey data. They observed that the greatest amount of soil
erosion and degradation in the District occurred from 1930 to 1950
when population growth was slowest (2.5 per cent per annum on
average). During that period, colonial policies established
reserves and prevented land extensification and intensification and
economic diversification among the resident Akamba population.
Tiffen and Mortimore suggested that this resulted in the overuse
and overgrazing of land and soil erosion. They observed that
higher population growth (over 3.0 per cent per annum) from the
1950s onward, in contrast, was accompanied by increased
agricultural productivity without widespread soil degradation.
They suggested that this was accomplished through a combination of:
land extensification after the demise of colonial reserves;
increased land investment (e.g., terracing, water and soil
conservation measures); diversification into non-farm income
sources; adaptation of food, cash and livestock production systems
(e.g., use of high-yield varieties); and societal and institutional
changes that facilitated technological innovation and the
accumulation of capital (e.g., a wider leadership base, community
development). They concluded that population growth had induced
technological innovation and increased productivity in Machakos, as
described by Boserup (1965). However, the continuation of this
process will depend on Government policies that induce further
income diversification, infrastructure development and agricultural
pricing measures that encourage land conservation.
Desertification has been defined as the expansion of
desert-like landscapes into arid and semi-arid environments and
rangelands used for livestock grazing (UNDP 1990). Due to
successive droughts and famine in the Sudo-Sahelian region during
the past three decades, the issue of desertification in Africa is
frequently discussed in the context of population-environment
relationships. Arid and semi-arid climates, which encompass a
large part of the African continent, are seen as particularly
vulnerable to drought and desertification (UNDP, 1990). Population
growth may contribute to desertification by leading to
overcultivation, overgrazing, salinization due to intensive
irrigation over time, and deforestation (United Nations, 1992).
The Sudan, the largest country in Africa, lies within the
critical Sudano-Sahelian zone deemed most vulnerable to
desertification (UNDP, 1991; Little, forthcoming). Several recent
descriptive studies have examined population and desertification
trends in the Kordofan, Darfur and White Nile regions of the Sudan
(Ibrahim, 1987; Horowitz and Salem-Murdock, 1987; Bilsborrow and
DeLargy, 1991). Those studies found that the growth of nomadic
pastoralist and subsistence farmer populations, combined with
increased livestock density, had led to increased fuelwood demands,
deforestation and the extension of agricultural and grazing
activity into forests and semi-arid marginal lands, all associated
with increased desertification. The studies also noted that the
expansion of irrigated agricultural schemes, which had pushed
subsistence farmers and pastoralists onto marginal lands, and the
increased sedentarization of some pastoralists had also contributed
to desertification.
In addition to the Sudan, the dry and arid rangelands of Kenya
have also been the focus of research on desertification. Talbot
(1989) had undertaken a historical analysis of population census
and government report data on land-use trends in the rangelands of
the Maasai from the 1880s to the 1980s. He inferred that the
growth of the resident Maasai pastoral populations had led to
increased livestock grazing on rangelands, while growth among the
adjacent sedentary agricultural populations had led to agricultural
extensification in the same areas. Talbot associated those
competing trends with increased rangeland degradation and
desertification. He also suggested that national and international
development assistance programmes in the region, for example,
Tsetse fly eradication, had increased overgrazing on rangelands by
increasing livestock populations, thus, further contributing to
desertification. He concluded that continued population growth
among Maasai and farming populations had been the primary cause of
environmental degradation and of the increased frequency of famines
in the region.
Fratkin (1991) and Little (1987) (see also Little,
forthcoming) had undertaken descriptive anthropological studies of
the relationship between pastoral and agricultural populations and
land degradation during the 1980s in two semi-arid district of
Kenya, Marsabit and Baringo. In Marsabit, Fratkin (1991) observed
that colonial policies, current political insecurity, and poverty
had restricted seasonal migration by pastoralists in the district
leading to their increased sedentarization and greater
concentrations of population in agriculturally settled areas. He
related those trends to subsequent overgrazing and desertification
and suggested that population growth among the pastoral and already
sedentary agricultural population in the District had exacerbated
those processes. In Baringo, Little (1987) concluded that
pastoralists had lost large amounts of their herd lands due to the
increased absorption of their land by the growing settled
agricultural population in the District. This had led to
overgrazing by pastoralists on their diminishing lands as well as
conflicts between pastoralists and settled cultivators over land.
In addition, absentee herd-owning has arisen in Baringo and has
been associated with less adequate resource management and
overgrazing. As in Marsabit, Little also observed that the
increased sedentarization of pastoralists had also occurred in
Baringo and was associated with the overuse of certain pastures and
agricultural land and ultimately to additional dryland degradation.
Asia
China is frequently singled out as the primary example where
population growth has stimulated continual intensification of
agriculture. There has, however, been virtually no study of the
relationship between population growth, density, agricultural
intensification and land degradation in China (Geores and
Bilsborrow, 1991). Ecological studies have identified the
occurrence of considerable deforestation, desertification,
salinization and chemical pollution but do not consider the effects
of demographic factors (Forestier, 1989). However, other studies
have implied that sustainable intensification of agriculture in
densely populated areas of China has occurred without the extensive
use of chemical pesticides or fertilizers (Wu and others, 1987).
Rather, this has been accomplished through more diverse
exploitation of ecosystems, for example, the use of fishponds,
which have high value yields per unit of land.
In contrast to the limited amount of research on China
currently available in English, there have been several recent
studies on population, agricultural change and land degradation in
India. Environmental conservation in India has historically
occurred through the institutionalization of common property
resources (CPRs) involving forests, pastures and water and waste
disposal areas. Women and children in poor households in India are
particularly involved in the use of CPRs, where they collect
firewood and tend livestock. Based on a study of village and
household-level survey data from seven states in India, Jodha
(1985, 1987 and 1989) examined changes in CPRs in relation to
demographic, economic and social trends. He concluded that changes
in land reform, market relations and increased population growth
have all led to adverse changes, including the decrease in
available CPRs and declines in communal resource management. This,
in turn, has precipitated land degradation in CPRs.
In Southern Asia and India, links between women, agricultural
change and land degradation in CPRs have been singled out for
particular attention. Agarwal (1988) undertook a descriptive
review of the status of women within poor rural households in India
and inferred that agricultural stagnation, rapid resource
degradation and the differential impact of agricultural development
policies on women were linked. She noted that development policies
had generally not benefitted poor women in households that depended
extensively on CPRs. Privatization encouraged by the Government as
an agricultural development policy has also decreased the size of
available CPRs. This has increased demands on the remaining CPRs,
with negative impacts on the workloads of women and the health and
nutrition of households. Agarwal (forthcoming) has also undertaken
a general descriptive review of the gender-specific impacts of land
degradation on women in India. On this basis, she criticized the
eco-feminist viewpoint that identified generalized links between
the domination of women and nature by men. She suggested the
alternative perspective of "feminist environmentalism" which has
accounted for the particular circumstances leading to linked
differential gender impacts and negative environmental changes in
any given context.
Geores and Bilsborrow (1991), among others, have noted that in
parts of Southern Asia, such as Bangladesh, much of the
agricultural population resides on flood plains subject to periodic
submergence. This leads to abrupt changes in population
distribution. Although flooding is necessary for the maintenance
of soil fertility, it also means that agricultural land may appear
or disappear abruptly, causing changes in landownership,
subsistence production and population distribution. Loss of land
through flooding also sometimes leads to the growth and
concentration of population in large squatter settlements on river
banks or shifts into agricultural wage labor. Once land reappears,
migration back onto the land also occurs quickly, often too rapidly
for the land to stabilize. After flooding, the size of
landholdings are frequently decreased by permanent erosion. Thus,
it has been inferred that agricultural growth in Bangladesh lags
behind population growth largely due to the instability caused by
this seasonal flooding (Myers, 1989a). Several studies have
attributed increased flooding in Bangladesh to deforestation in the
Himalayan highlands of Nepal and northern India, although the
evidence is not conclusive (e.g., Ives, 1988).
The relationship between resource degradation and scarcity,
population growth and migration, and violent conflict has also been
considered in Bangladesh. Hazarike (1993) and Homer Dixon and
others, (1993) have undertaken descriptive studies of migration
trends between Bangladesh and two states in India (Assam and
Tripura), documented by census data from the 1980s. They concluded
that seasonal flooding combined with rapid population growth in
Bangladesh had led to persistent out-migration to Assam and
Tripura. This, in turn, had led to land degradation and land and
water scarcity, and ultimately to violent ethnic conflicts in those
two Indian states. Homer Dixon and others, (1993) concluded that
in southern Asia (as well as in parts of Africa and Latin America),
population growth and migration might lead directly to water or
land scarcity through increased demands and/or indirectly through
degradation and overuse. Unequal access to resources due to
political and economic factors might enhance this scarcity. They
suggested that resource scarcity induced by this chain of events
was directly associated with increased violent conflict in India as
well as other developing countries.
Thiesenhusen (1991) reviewed land tenure patterns in
Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and emphasized the role played by
land tenure in affecting relationships between population and
resources. He concluded that land tenure played the least
important role in Bangladesh. He observed a pattern where
labor-absorbing mechanisms of farming and the existing land tenure
system were swamped by population growth, leading to environmental
degradation through overuse of land and extension onto marginal
lands. As Theisenhusen observed, "the need for income pushes the
growing population to overwhelm legal, technical and institutional
mechanisms that ordinarily would keep farming in situ" and that
there was, thus, a race between "the stork and the plough" (p. 4).
In Sri Lanka and Nepal, Thiesenhusen (1991) concluded that
increased population, in the face of a lack of economic growth, had
led to exaggerated adjustments in land tenure. A labor-retentive
land tenure structure had developed whereby low labor productivity
accommodates a larger rural population and depresses out-migration
as well as economic and urban growth. Increasing land
fragmentation and co-ownership had arisen also. He suggested that
those trends had resulted in the overuse of agricultural lands, the
increased use of marginal lands and, therefore, land degradation in
both contexts.
The concept of "environmental refugees" or environmentally-
induced out-migration (due to land degradation, drought and
deforestation) has recently been considered in developing countries
in Asia as well as Africa (El-Hinnawi, 1985; Jacobsen 1988).
Kavanagh and Lonergan (1992) have reviewed the existing literature
on environmentally-induced outmigration in developing countries,
focusing on South-east Asia. They observed that, at present,
discussion of the environment as a cause of population displacement
was speculative and had been based on anecdotal data. They further
observed that the determinants of outmigration were multicausal and
that it was difficult to distinguish between impoverishment,
environmental degradation and insecurity as causes of population
displacement. They concluded with the recommendation that the
impact of environmental degradation on population movement must be
considered within a framework that would also address
impoverishment and security issues.
Suhrke (1993) has also reviewed the existing literature on
environmentally-induced outmigration in Asia and other developing
countries. Suhrke identified (a) a "minimalist" view which
emphasized multi-causality and had seen environmental change as a
contextual variable which, among other factors (political, economic
etc.), contributed to out-migration (Kritz, 1990; NAS, 1991;
Bilsborrow, 1992b); and (b) a "maximalist" view, which argued that
environmental degradation had already displaced and would continue
to displace population in developing countries (Jacobsen, 1988; El-
Hinnawi, 1985). Suhrke (1993) also undertook the specific
descriptive review of the relationships between environmental
degradation and out-migration in north-east Thailand and India as
well as the Sahel and Guatemala. Based on those examples, she
suggested a third view in which patterns of development and
population pressure, or "demography and political economy" (p. 7),
were seen as the ultimate causes of environmental degradation and,
thus, environmentally-induced out-migration. She concluded that it
might be most useful to consider environmental degradation as one
in a complex chain of factors that lead to out-migration. Building
on this suggestion, Richmond (1993a and 1993b) has elaborated a
continuum framework for conceptualizing migration determinants that
ranges from reactive out-migration, stimulated by external
environmental or structural change, to proactive migration, driven
more by individual choice.
Latin America and the Caribbean
Several relevant studies on population and land use have been
undertaken in Latin America and the Caribbean. A literature review
on population and land use in the region has been recently carried
out (Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992). The discussion below
recapitulates the major findings of that review and discusses more
recent research not previously covered.
In their literature review, Bilsborrow and Geores (1992) noted
that in Latin America research had generally not distinguished the
effects of population growth and density from those of other
factors leading to deterioration in land quality in the region.
They did, however, identify several studies that had suggested
links between population pressure and decreasing soil fertility
(e.g., Leonard, 1987 SEDUE, 1986). They observed that many of the
instances of association between land degradation and high
population density referred to Central American and Andean
highlands where steep slopes were common, or to frontier regions of
tropical rainforests where in-migration had led to deforestation
and soil erosion. Overall, however, they concluded that despite an
increase in the literature on population and environmental
relationships in Latin America, little of it had shown a direct
cause-effect relationship between population growth/density and
environmental deterioration.
Stupp and Bilsborrow (1989) (see also Bilsborrow and DeLargy,
1991; Bilsborrow and Stupp, forthcoming) have used longitudinal
census data on population growth and distribution, agricultural
production and land use in Guatemala to retrospectively study the
impact of population growth on food security, rural employment,
land fragmentation, and migration since 1950. These results were
considered alongside trends in land degradation and deforestation.
They concluded that if current rates of population growth continue,
food security would decrease, while land fragmentation, rural
unemployment, rural-urban and rural-rural migration would continue
to increase. Concurrently, they noted that deforestation, land
degradation and watershed destruction had increased in recent
decades. They inferred that population growth and migration had
played an important role in causing those environmental trends by
increasing land fragmentation, forest-clearing and overuse of soils
on marginal lands, and an indirect role by increasing pressures for
higher agricultural production through the growth of urban demand.
Collins (1987) had analysed the relationship between
migration, labor availability and destructive land-management
strategies based on a review of labor migration and population
trends in Latin America during the 1970s and 1980s and a case-study
of the Peruvian Andes and Jamaica during the same period. She
suggested that in the Peruvian Andes land scarcity due to
population growth and inequalities in land distribution might
induce rural out-migration which, in turn, would lead to less
available labor in rural areas. As a result, labor scarcity and
out-migration might simultaneously exist in those rural areas.
Out-migration and labor scarcity, furthermore, might lead to worse
resource management, for example, failure to maintain terraces and
ultimately to land degradation.
Stonich (1989) undertook a descriptive analysis of
agricultural census, household survey and ethnographic data in
three coastal and six highland villages in rural Honduras between
1981 and 1987 to identify linkages between agricultural
development, demographic change and environmental deterioration.
She concluded that in Southern Honduras "environmental degradation
is intricately connected to problems of land tenure, unemployment,
demography and poverty" (p. 289). Economic forces and Government
policies stimulated the rapid expansion of commercial agriculture
for export in the region, including cattle, coffee, cotton and
sugar, while production of basic grains decreased. In turn, the
expansion of commercial agriculture combined with rapid population
growth had exacerbated the concentration of landholding, the
increased use of marginal land and deforestation on hillsides by
small farmers. She related those practices to increased land
degradation.
Provencio and Carabias (1993) analysed census migration data
for Mexico and studies documenting land degradation in four rural
ecological zones (subhumid tropic, arid and semi-arid, temperate
and wet tropics) for the period 1970-1990. They inferred that out-
migration from those rural areas had limited the negative impact of
population growth on land resources and deforestation. However,
degradation had continued despite out-migration due to the growth
of commercial activities in agriculture and forestry. They also
noted that in temperate rural zones most degradation had occurred
on less-populated private lands. They concluded that the
population capable of being sustained in different ecological zones
varied according to the form of resource management used,
technological factors and the standard of living.
Thiesenhusen (1991) evaluated the relationship between land
tenure, land-use change and population through a descriptive review
of land tenure patterns in Latin America over the past three
decades. He suggested that a pattern existed whereby highly
inequitable distribution of land causes labor out-migration,
leading to environmental degradation through greater concentration
of the majority of the rural population on small parcels, the
misuse of large portions of the best land by large landowners, and
insecurity in land tenure, which provided little incentive for
conservation.
C. Forests
The developing regions contain almost all of the world's
tropical moist forests and significant amounts of other forests.
According to the 1990 Forest Resources Assessment carried out by
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
deforestation rates for the period 1981-1991 were highest in Asia
and the Pacific (1.2 per cent per annum) followed by Latin America
(0.8 per cent per annum), and Africa (0.7 per cent per annum)
although the magnitude of loss was by far highest in Latin America
(FAO, 1993). Several cross-country statistical analyses (Allan and
Barnes, 1985; Rudel, 1989; Southgate, 1991) involving a large
number of developing countries (generally more than 30) as well as
some national studies (e.g., Panayoutou and Sungsuwan, 1989) found
significant statistical relationships between population growth and
deforestation. Recent research by social scientists, however, had
explored the processes linking population and deforestation and
found that the relationship between population and deforestation
varied according to context. A sample of the latter studies are
considered below.
Africa
Africa has the highest rates of population growth among
developing regions and the greatest reliance on fuelwood as an
energy source. Because of this, research on deforestation in
Africa has focused on the relationship between population and
fuelwood use. In general, there has been less research on
deforestation in Africa than in Latin America and Asia.
The view that population growth leads to deforestation through
both increased fuelwood use and agricultural expansion is reflected
in some recent descriptive studies on Africa during the 1980s that
draw on agricultural and population census data and satellite
images (Barnes, 1990; Cleaver and Schreiber, 1992; Anderson, 1984
and 1986). Those studies suggested that both urban and rural
population growth and resulting increases in fuelwood demand had
led to increased deforestation. The ripple-like spread of
deforestation in concentric rings around urban areas in Africa has
been cited as evidence of the impact of urban demand (Anderson,
1984 and 1986). Additional analysis by Cline-Cole and others
(1990) and Mortimore (forthcoming) based upon data on tree stocks
in the Kano region of Nigeria, however, suggested that linkages
between urban growth and the conversion of lands and forests around
cities were more complex than inferences from ripple-pattern
observations implied. In Kano, high density areas closest to the
city had high and increasing tree densities while areas further out
reflected the most rapid rates of tree removal. Also, tree volume
in farmland areas in Kano exceeded that of shrubland and forest
reserves (Mortimore, forthcoming).
Cline Cole and others (1990) have also undertaken a
descriptive analysis of urban household survey data collected
between 1981 and 1983 in Cameroon, Kenya, Niger and Nigeria to
study the relationship between urban household characteristics and
fuelwood consumption. Their results suggested that the effects of
urban population growth on fuelwood consumption and ultimately
deforestation were complex. The authors found that urban household
size and composition and lifecycle stage, all shaped demands for
fuelwood. Their result indicated that larger households in urban
areas reflected lower and more efficient per capita fuelwood use
than smaller households. They inferred that urban growth
characterized by the formation of large households was, therefore,
associated with reduced and more efficient per capita fuelwood use
while the reverse was true for urban growth when characterized by
smaller households.
Whitney (1987) has analysed the impact of both overall
population growth and urban and rural growth on fuelwood demands
and deforestation in the Sudan between 1960 and 1980, using data
from a national energy assessment and UNDP and World Bank data on
energy consumption. Whitney observed that it had been economically
more rational for the Sudan to mine its forest resources than to
spend its limited hard currency importing fossil fuels. He cited
deforestation as most severe in the Central Region. According to
his analysis, the amount of deforestation due to household fuelwood
consumption increased over three times (from 7,500 km2 per annum to
28,000 km2 per annum) between 1960 and 1980 due primarily to
population growth. The increased use of wood for charcoal by the
growing rural population was a major factor driving deforestation
since per capita use of wood for charcoal increased alongside
population growth in rural areas. In contrast, in growing urban
areas per capita charcoal use actually declined during the period
since some urban dwellers converted to fossil fuels. Whitney
concluded that in the future, use of charcoal and fuelwood in rural
areas would be the primary causes of deforestation in the Sudan.
In the absence of large-scale conversion to fossil fuels, he
recommended improving charcoal wood-burning stoves, development of
more efficient charcoal, increasing the use of kerosene, and
reducing the demand for fuelwood through pricing policies.
A qualitative longitudinal study by Agbo and others (1993) of
a village in northern Benin suggested that institutional
constraints, including those imposed by protected areas, must be
considered in relation to deforestation in Africa. The total land
area of the village, comprised mainly of fragile soils, was
confined by the creation of a national park. Agbo and others found
that under such conditions continued population growth through
natural increase led to incursions into forest areas for
agricultural land, fuelwood and timber for home construction. This
in turn resulted in increased deforestation, erosion, crop-damaging
floods and falls in crop yields. The authors associated these
trends with periodic famines and related high infant mortality and
fertility. Agbo and others concluded that deforestation could be
traced to population pressures which, in turn, were related to
decreased availability of land and forest resources due to the
creation of the national park.
In contrast to the above studies that focus on the impact of
population on land resources, Feldman (1990) presented an as yet
empirically untested econometric household utility function for
estimating the impact of deforestation on population and fertility
in Africa. Feldman (1990) suggested that Africa was characterized
by chronic labor shortages due largely to the use of labor
intensive, low technology agriculture. Feldman observed that, as
a result, children in Africa were an important source of household
labor. He proposed that deforestation could further increase this
labor demand for children and ultimately fertility. With greater
deforestation, children must spend more time collecting the same
amount of firewood. Therefore, more children were needed to meet
fuelwood needs. Feldman concluded that fertility reduction in
Africa would require, not only family planning programmes, but also
technological and ecological interventions that increased labor and
land productivity and reduce the continual need for additional
labor.
Asia
The islands comprising Indonesia contain the third largest
portion of rainforest in the world, after Brazil and Zaire. After
Brazil, Indonesia currently has the largest absolute annual loss of
rainforests, with an annual deforestation rate of 0.8 per cent per
annum (FAO, 1992c). In a descriptive analysis of recent trends in
Indonesia, Bilsborrow (1992c) (see also World Bank, 1988) suggested
that long-term population growth in Java and transmigration
programmes to the so-called Outer Islands had played an important
role in this loss in recent decades. Bilsborrow suggested that
population growth in Java had resulted in continuing land
fragmentation, intensified land use, soil degradation and
landlessness. Since colonial times this population pressure has
been addressed by "transmigration" programmes which have resettled
population on the Outer Islands. Here, rapid rates of
deforestation have ensued as settlers clear land to establish new
plots. Transmigration has also indirectly stimulated flows of
spontaneous settlers to the Outer Islands, whose numbers are equal
to or greater than those of the Government-sponsored and monitored
transmigrants. Bilsborrow suggested that those spontaneous
settlers undertook greater clearing than sponsored transmigrants
and could thus be the most important agents of deforestation. The
fragility of soils in the forest regions further enhanced the need
for additional clearing by migrants. Uncertainty regarding land
titling could also lead to less incentives for conservation
measures and ultimately the need to clear more land. Bilsborrow
concluded that, ironically, the impact of transmigration on
relieving population pressures in Java had been limited since
transmigrants had been generally selected from the poor and already
landless segment of the population.
Agricultural and population census and macroeconomic data from
the Philippines during the 1980s have been used in descriptive
studies to consider the relationship between internal migration and
deforestation in the Philippines by Cruz and Cruz (1990), Cruz
(1991 and 1993) and as part of a comparative study with Costa Rica
by Cruz and others (1992). As in Costa Rica, Cruz and others
(1992) concluded that a downturn in global economic trends
transformed internal migration from rural-urban flows to mainly
rural-rural flows towards forest regions. Once in forest lands,
the marginal nature of cleared land combined with insecure tenure
created little incentive for conservation, which had led to rapid
land degradation and clearing. In addition, commercial logging in
the forest uplands had also increased forest losses, both directly
and indirectly by creating access roads that facilitated
in-migration and settlement. The above studies on the Philippines
concluded that in-migration to forest areas by small farmers in
search of cultivable land had been a major determinant of
deforestation in the country and that long-term population growth
in the Philippines had enhanced the scale on which this process
occurred.
Panayoutou and Sungsuwan (1989) (see also Panayoutou and
Parasuk, 1990 and Panayoutou, 1992) have developed and applied an
econometric function for defining forest cover and deforestation
between 1960 and 1988 for northern Thailand. Demand factors due to
logging, fuelwood, agriculture and infrastructure (e.g., road and
irrigation) development are estimated through individual demand
functions that took into account population growth and density.
For example, fuelwood demand is estimated as a function of fuelwood
collection costs, population growth and density, forest
accessibility and the opportunity cost of labor. The overall
deforestation function accounts for all these estimated demand
factors, their interaction and wood prices. Using demographic,
agricultural and land-use data for the 16 provinces that comprise
northern Thailand, Panayoutou and Sungsuwan applied regression
analysis to estimate the overall deforestation function (and its
constituent demand functions) for the period. Their findings
indicated that population growth and density were the single most
important factors contributing to deforestation in north-east
Thailand. Population growth and density were found to have this
significant impact mainly by leading to greater demands for
agricultural land.
The relationship between deforestation and population growth
in highland areas of Nepal has received some attention since the
1970s. Population growth has been high in the highland regions due
to rapidly declining mortality and continued high fertility between
1951 and 1985. The population doubled during the past three
decades from 8.3 to 16.7 million and is expected to double again to
30 million by 2005 (Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987). The Nepalese
economy is primarily agricultural, so the majority of this
increased population will be dependent on agriculture. A theory of
Himalayan environmental degradation emerges from the descriptive
literature on deforestation in Nepal that links rapidly increasing
population among hill farmers after 1950 to increased demands for
agricultural land and fuelwood and, therefore, to increased
deforestation (Eckholm, 1975; Bandyopadhyay and others, 1985;
Singh, 1985; Joshi, 1986). Deforestation, in turn, is seen as
exacerbating soil degradation, landslides and flooding, increasing
river sedimentation in other lowland areas (India and Bangladesh),
possibly stimulating climate change and increasing poverty (Ives,
1987).
However, additional descriptive, historical and quantitative
research in the late 1980s challenges the existence of any simple
causal relationship between population growth and deforestation in
Nepal (Mahat and others, 1986-1987; Ives, 1988; Blaikie and
Brookfield, 1987). These studies suggested that large-scale
deforestation began prior to rapid population growth, primarily as
a result of Government policies that encouraged wide-scale
commercial exploitation of forest resources. Moreover, those
studies concluded that the nature of forest resources varied
throughout the region and that current processes leading to
deforestation had diverse rather than uniform origins.
Kanaskar Thapa (1992) made an analysis of household level data
from 300 households in one hill village of Nepal to explore how
socio-economic and cultural factors could affect responses to rapid
population growth and environmental degradation. She used
regression analysis to estimate the impact of socio-economic
status, family size, education and caste (Brahmin/Chetri versus
artisan) on out-migration, contraceptive use, chemical fertilizer
use and fuelwood consumption. The results indicated that artisan
caste and larger household size was associated with more
out-migration. Higher socio-economic status was associated with
increased use of fertilizer (agricultural intensification) and
contraceptive use. Middle-income households had the highest demand
for fuelwood and, by implication, more deforestation. A negative
relationship between family size and per capita fuelwood
consumption was found, although overall demand and thus
deforestation increased with family size. Kanaskar Thapa (1992)
concluded that socio-economic status and caste affiliation could
have significant impacts on the relationship between population
pressure and deforestation.
Kumar and Hotchkiss (1988) carried out a regression analysis
of household survey data from 120 households in Nepal during
1982-1983 to test the hypotheses that deforestation reduced
agricultural output, household income from agriculture, and
nutrition by increasing the time women must spend collecting forest
products, including fuelwood. Deforestation was measured in terms
of fuelwood collection time, with greater times associated with
higher levels of deforestation. The authors used regression
analysis to estimate the impact of female time allocation,
agricultural production and nutrition on deforestation/fuelwood
collection time. The results indicated that increased
deforestation/fuelwood collection time was significantly associated
with decreased farm labor by women and decreased time spent in food
preparation. Kumar and Hotchkiss concluded that deforestation had
negative effects on agricultural production and income as well as
household nutrition.
Through a descriptive review of historical trends in forest
resources in India, Agarwal (forthcoming) suggested that commercial
exploitation of forests areas since colonial times and the
concomitant increased privatization of communal forest have been
primary factors driving deforestation. Reduced community resource
management, loss of local knowledge for land management and the use
of less sustainable technologies have accompanied this
privatization and further contributed to deforestation. She
suggested that population growth had also had an impact by
increasing demands on those limited forests areas or common
property resources that remained available for communal use.
Agarwal further suggested that the decline of community resource
management has exacerbated the effects of population growth. She
concluded that deforestation had a greater negative impact on
women's lives in India since they had been the primary gatherers of
fuelwood and other forest products for household consumption.
Latin America and the Caribbean
Central and South America contain the largest proportion of
closed tropical forests in the world, and the bulk of current
research in English on linkages between population and
deforestation focuses on this region. Although population growth
rates began to slow in Latin America during recent years, the
spatial concentration of population in many rural areas continues
due to historical inequalities in access to land. In lieu of
addressing this inequality, countries with significant tropical
forest areas (e.g., Brazil, Ecuador, Guatemala and Peru) have
actively encouraged migration into forest regions. As a result,
several recent studies on deforestation and population in Latin
America focus on the migration dimension of population in relation
to deforestation in tropical lowland areas.
Brazil contains the largest portion (one third) of the world's
tropical forests and experiences the largest absolute conversion of
forest land (Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992). Successive Governments
since the 1960s have encouraged the colonization and development of
forest regions by explicit colonization schemes and fiscal and
road-building policies. A longitudinal study of the northern
Brazilian Amazon frontier has been carried out since the 1970s
through the analysis of census migration data and economic,
institutional and agricultural data collected through successive
household surveys and anthropological field work (Schmink, 1988 and
forthcoming; Schmink and Wood, 1987 and 1993; Wood and Schmink,
1993; and Wood, 1993a). Their findings suggested that poverty and
the concentration of landholding outside the Amazon drove
in-migration by small farmers to the region. They also suggested
that land titling polices that linked clearing to land titles
encouraged migrants to clear forest as soon as possible. To date,
however, large ranchers, receiving incentives, have carried out the
largest amount of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (Wood,
1993a). Wood and Schmink concluded that competition for power and
violent conflict between ranchers and small farmers further
enhanced clearing by both groups as a means of expanding their land
claims and relative power (Wood and Schmink, 1993).
Martine (1988) has also used census migration data from the
Brazilian Amazon frontier to analyse the growth of towns in the
region during the 1980s and the implications this has had for
deforestation. Martine observed that the concentration of land
apparent in the rest of Brazil had been replicated on the frontier,
with settlers to the region experiencing increased landlessness
similar to their counterparts outside the region, while Government
incentives led large-scale farmers and commercial interest to
continually absorb the land of "failed" settlers. Martine asserted
that those "failed" settlers congregated in frontier towns and, as
a result, medium- and large-size towns accounted for the majority
of Amazonian population growth during the 1980s (Martine, 1988).
As a result, an increasing proportion of migrants to frontier areas
did not end up on the land and frontier growth has been an
increasingly urban phenomenon in Brazil (Martine, 1988; see also
Browder, 1989). Therefore, he concluded that the role played by
in- migration relative to deforestation could be quite complex.
Sydenstricker and Vosti (1993) undertook descriptive and
multivariate regression analysis of data from 200 households
collected during a malaria survey (see Sawyer, 1992) in the
Macadinho region of the Brazilian Amazon between 1985 and 1987 to
explore the impact of household composition on deforestation. They
found that the number of males in households was significantly
related to higher rates of deforestation. Moreover, they found
that most deforestation took place during the "implantation" or
initial phase of settlement when colonists adapted to their new
environment and when households were comprised mainly of males
(fathers and sons). This occurred since forest-clearing was
crucial to establishing the right of tenure. They also found,
however, that clearing of additional areas was required each year
due to low soil fertility.
Pichon and Bilsborrow (forthcoming) and Pichon and others,
(1993) have also undertaken multivariate regression analysis of
data collected from a sample of 419 migrant settler households in
the northern Ecuadorian Amazon during 1990, in which they estimated
the relationships between household characteristics and the
proportion of forest area maintained. They found that larger
household size, better soil quality, longer duration of residence,
better access to towns and roads, and smaller total farm area were
significantly related to lower proportions of plots remaining in
forest. They proposed that there was no uniform pattern whereby
deforestation necessarily increased over time for households.
Rather, households made land-use decisions in response to a variety
of factors, including natural resource endowments and Government
policies. Tabulations also showed that there had been high
retention of household members, including children, leading to
second-generation household formation and additional clearing of
forest for plots. They concluded that this, in combination with
high fertility among settler households, portends continued, if not
increased, deforestation in the region.
Rudel (1993) also collected and analysed household survey data
collected from 63 households in the southern Amazon region of
Ecuador, in 1986. Using multiple regression, he estimated the
impact of ethnicity (colonist versus indigenous Shuar), household
size, credit availability, and size of landholding on percentage of
total land cleared by households. His results indicate that larger
household size, smaller farm area, and better availability of
credit were significantly associated with more deforestation. He
also found that colonist households cleared significantly more land
than indigenous (Shuar) households. Other descriptive analysis
suggested that in-migrants to the southern Ecuadorian Amazon come
from better-off peasant families pulled by forest opportunities
rather than from poor households pushed by marginalization. He
concluded that in-migration did not seem to be tied to inequalities
and "immiseration" outside the region though this finding was based
on a small sample.
Rudel (1993) also undertook a historical review of
institutional factors that had affected patterns of deforestation
in the southern Ecuadorian Amazon. Based on this review, he
proposed that causes of deforestation could vary according to
forest type and size and settlement pattern. In large continuous
forest areas where commercial logging or ranching interests
predominated, their activity was the most important determinant of
deforestation, although peasant settlers could take advantage of
penetration roads. Such a sequence was seen also in the
Philippines and Thailand (see Cruz and others, 1992 and Panayotou,
1991, respectively). In large continuous forests where coalitions
of interests (e.g., small farmers, large landowners) predominated
and competed for credit, agricultural inputs and access to roads,
those investments and infrastructure opportunities were the most
important determinants of deforestation and in-migration again
played a secondary role. In smaller separated forests where
settlements by small farmers predominated, in-migration had been
the most important determinant of deforestation since it promoted
a continual "nibbling" away at forest borders. Rudel suggested
that those patterns were not discrete but could represent different
stages in forest development, with a general movement over time
from large continuous to smaller separated forests in which settler
in-migration becomes the main determinant of deforestation. Rudel
concluded that relationships between population and deforestation
could, thus, depend on forest size and type and settlement
patterns.
The study of deforestation in non-Amazon forest areas of Latin
America, where colonization has rarely been promoted, presents a
different picture of the relationship between population and
deforestation. Descriptive studies of agricultural and population
census data and historical land-use trends in forest areas of
southern Honduras by DeWalt and Stonich (1992) and DeWalt and
others, (1993, forthcoming) suggested that the expansion of
commercial agriculture (cotton, cattle, melon and shrimp farming)
and increasing land concentration had been the primary factors
responsible for deforestation and other forms of ecological
destruction (pesticide contamination, mangrove swamp elimination
and soil degradation) in recent decades. The expansion of
commercial agriculture in southern Honduras limited the land
available to small farmers, leading them to clear forest areas in
order to exploit marginal lands on steeper slopes, to intensify the
use of existing land without adequate inputs (fertilizer), or to
out-migrate to cities or other rural areas. They also identified
a synergistic relationship whereby large landowners temporarily
rented lands to small farmers as a means of clearing land for
pasture, thus enhancing deforestation. Population growth was seen
as making only a minor contribution to higher rates of clearing in
forest areas in southern Honduras.
Harrison (1990) undertook a quantitative analysis of
population and agricultural census data for all current cantons
(84) of Costa Rica between 1950 and 1983 to test for a relationship
between rural density and deforestation. To this end, she carried
out correlation analyses between population density and
deforestation over the period. Her results indicated that there
was no correspondence between increases in density and
deforestation. Rather, increases in density tended to occur in
those areas which had already been cleared. Through further
correlation analysis, she found that, in fact, the largest amounts
of deforestation were associated with clearing of land for large
commercial farms, which supported relatively few people. Harrison
concluded that in Costa Rica, laws and policies that encouraged the
expansion of pasture by middle-class entrepreneurs and foreign
corporations had been the most important determinants of
deforestation rather than population pressure per se.
Cruz and others, (1992) has also used agricultural and
population census data and macroeconomic data in Costa Rica during
the 1980s to examine the interrelationships between population
growth, migration, economic trends and deforestation. They
concluded that increased poverty and rural unemployment in
non-forest areas, exacerbated by the country's debt crisis, had
transformed internal migration from mainly rural-urban flows to
rural-rural flows into forest regions. However, like Harrison
(1990), they found little correspondence between increased density
and deforestation. Increases in rural population density and
in-migration were found to be highest in areas where there was
already the least forest cover.
D. Urban areas
Urbanization is a dominant demographic trend in the developing
countries. By the year 2000, nearly 45 per cent of the total
population in developing countries will be living in urban areas
(United Nations, 1992). In urban areas reciprocal impacts between
population and the environment are clearly evident. Growing urban
populations directly transform the environment, for example,
increased water pollution given the generally inadequate disposal
of waste. Water pollution, in turn, has a direct impact on the
health of the urban populations.
Latin America is by far the most urbanized region of the
developing world and a number of recent studies addressing
population-environment relations in urban areas consider this
region. Roberts (forthcoming) has undertaken an extensive review
of studies that could shed light on the relationship between
population and the environment in Latin American cities. Referring
to Mexico City and the major Brazilian cities as examples, he
observed that in contrast to the historical Western experience,
economic development had not necessarily accompanied urbanization.
As a result, high rates of population growth and urbanization had
produced greater negative environmental impacts due to inadequate
infrastructure, for example, lack of sanitation facilities and
pollution controls. Roberts also suggested that patterns of
development which neglected rural areas had played a role in the
unprecedented and rapid spatial concentration of population in
megacities, with resulting negative environmental outcomes. He
concluded that understanding environmental problems in urban areas
of Latin America required the consideration of social and economic
factors that had determined patterns of urbanization as well as
urban population size.
Several recent descriptive studies covering cities in Asia,
Africa and Latin America have stressed the health impact of
negative environmental conditions in urban areas (Hardoy and
Satherwaite, 1985 and 1989; International Labor Office, 1992;
Hamza, 1992; Benneh, 1992). These studies suggested that
inadequate or polluted water supplies, lack of sanitation services
and pollution due to toxic chemicals were important environmental
factors affecting the health of urban populations. The health
impacts of those environmental factors in urban areas had been
considered at several levels: home, workplace, neighborhood; and
wider city environment (Hardoy and Satherwaite, 1989). The World
Bank (1992) is at present carrying out a study of urban
environments in developing countries which will produce a
classification of environmental variables relevant to health,
identify health differentials and vulnerable groups, review the
existing literature, and propose future research. The World Health
Organization (WHO) Commission on Health and the Environment
(forthcoming) has already developed a detailed typology describing
major environmentally induced illnesses by cause for urban areas of
developing countries.
Several recent studies on the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil have
specifically addressed urban population-environment relationships
in relation to health. Jacobi (1992) and Hogan (1992b) have
reviewed census data on migration and the spatial distribution of
population and health data (cause of death) for Sao Paulo. Both
authors traced the development of the slums within which the
majority of the city's population lived and the differential health
impact of urban pollution on this poorer population. They
identified a historical pattern of urbanization whereby Sao Paulo
had come to be divided between a central core of higher income
groups with full access to basic infrastructure and services and
low rates of population growth and a periphery comprised of
low-income groups with little access to infrastructure and services
and high rates of population growth. Jacobi (1992) associated
those differences in access to services with higher death rates in
the periphery. He also suggested that access to potable water was
a primary factor behind diarrhoeal disease, the principle cause of
infant mortality in the periphery. Hogan (1992b) concluded that
commuting by lower socioeconomic groups from the periphery to Sao
Paulo's industrial core is also associated with poorer health
outcomes for this group. Hogan (1992b) also concluded that the
single most important environmental factor that affected health
outcomes at the household level is water quality. Another analysis
of longitudinal data from a sample of over 100,000 households in
Sao Paulo between 1970 and 1980 also suggested that inadequate
access to water and the poor quality of water and sanitation
services in certain areas of the city were associated with higher
levels of neonatal and infant mortality (Ferreira, 1992).
Hogan (1988a, 1988b and 1993b) also analysed census migration
data for Cubatao, an industrial community on the outskirts of Sao
Paulo, to explore socio-economic differentials between commuter and
resident populations and the differential impact of environmental
pollution during the 1980s. The concentration of petroleum
refining and other industries in Cubatao had resulted in extensive
water and air pollution. Hogan observed that as much as one third
of the working population in Cubatao comprised of middle-class
professionals who resided outside but commuted in daily to work.
This commuting population did not bear the major impact of
Cubatao's environmental pollution, in contrast to the resident
population made up of lower socio-economic groups. Hogan observed
that the resident population experiences higher levels of
infectious, respiratory and skin diseases. He concluded that
environmental deterioration in Cubatao would continue since the
resident low-income population was generally not able to
politically mobilize to improve its living conditions.
Lacey (1993) has analysed atmospheric data collected from a
system of monitoring stations (Red Automatica de Monitoreo (RAMA))
and epidemiologic data from Mexico City between 1987 and 1991 to
study the negative health outcomes of air pollution. He outlined
the determinants of atmospheric emissions by considering the
geographic characteristics of the City as well as data on car
emissions and fuel consumption. He observed that deterioration of
air quality in Mexico City had occurred as the result of both rapid
urbanization and industrialization and had negative outcomes on the
health of the population and ultimately its productivity. He
summarized the Integrated Plan for Atmospheric Contamination in
Mexico City (PICCA) undertaken by the Government in 1990 to respond
to this situation as well as measures by private industries. These
combined measure included improving the quality of combustibles,
restructuring urban transport, adopting new vehicle technologies,
reforestation and educating the public.
In contrast to consideration of the impact of urban
environmental change on urban population health, several recent
studies consider the impact of urban populations on the
environment. Benitez and others, (1993) use census data and
ecological and agricultural data, from an island city (Carmen) on
the Gulf Coast of southern Mexico to analyse the impact of
population growth on the increased degradation of fishing areas and
mangrove swamps in the surrounding Laguna de Terminos between 1970
and 1990. They observed that the population of Carmen increased
rapidly during the period with the discovery of petroleum in the
region. They suggested that this growth and the subsequent urban
expansion had been facilitated by the dumping of industrial and
urban wastes in the lagoon, resulting in the contamination of
fishing grounds in the lagoon as well as poor water quality and
adverse health impacts in the city. They also suggest that the
construction of access roads to Carmen has disrupted drainage
patterns, leading to the destruction of mangrove swamps and the
salinization of agricultural land on the island. They concluded
that the carrying capacity of Carmen and the island on which it was
situated would be exceeded within the next decade and that it was
therefore necessary to limit both its population and industrial
growth and to develop policies to reduce the pollution already
present.
In Costa Rica, Arcia and others (1991b) used population
projections in combination with agricultural and forestry censuses
and data on solid wastes, vehicle emissions, fuelwood demand and
urban land-expansion to describe and estimate the future
environmental impact of population growth in metropolitan San Jose
and the surrounding Central Valley. They developed a
population-environment model (POMA) which estimates annual changes
in environmental variables (air pollution, solid waste production,
deforestation, land-use change) as functions of population growth
and per capita income growth, taking into account the cost of
municipal infra-structure and average amounts of automobile
omissions and solid waste production. The model projected
hypothetical impacts between 1990 and 2025 under two fertility
assumptions: maintenance of total fertility at the 1990 level of
3.5 or a decline in total fertility to 2.2. The results suggested
that a decline in the total fertility rate from 3.5 to 2.2 by 2025
would reduce air pollution by 22 per cent and solid wastes by 30
per cent. Lower total fertility, however, was projected to have
little impact on deforestation; depletion of commercial forest
reserves was projected by the year 2000 under either the current or
low-fertility assumption. The model also suggested that population
growth would lead to greater demands for agricultural land for food
to supply the metropolitan area and Central Valley. They also
concluded that lower population growth in metropolitan San Jose
would, therefore, also reduce pressures for agricultural land
expansion and deforestation. A critical review of the POMA model
as applied to Costa Rica is provided by Sanderson (1992). The POMA
model has also been applied to Quito, Ecuador, with similar results
and conclusions (Arcia, Bustamente and Paguay, 1991a).
E. Freshwater resources
Population may have an impact on freshwater quality and supply
in both urban and rural areas through direct demands for water, or
indirectly through human activities that alter natural water
cycles, cause pollution or redirect water sources, for example, dam
construction and irrigation. Access to and quality of water could
have reciprocal impacts on a population's health. Research on the
health impacts of water is addressed above in the context of urban
areas (see section II.D). The discussion below concentrates on
population impacts on freshwater resources. A brief review of
existing research and issues related to population impacts on
fresh-water resources as well as on oceans and fisheries has also
been carried out by de Sherbinin (1993). The following section
considers the main points of this review as well as additional
recent research.
Recent descriptive studies have outlined the potential impacts
that population change may have on freshwater resources, although
direct links have not yet been carefully explored (de Sherbinin,
1993). These studies suggested that population growth and
distribution could indirectly affect freshwater quality through
urbanization and deforestation (Schwarz and others, 1990), crop
irrigation, household use and industrialization (L'vovich and
White, 1990; Gleick, 1992). Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) also
considered the potential impacts of population on water resources.
They stressed that these impacts should be seen in the context of
natural water cycles and climatic and geographic factors that
create variability in freshwater resources in developing countries.
They also suggested that the natural hydroclimate of much of the
developing world made it particularly subject to water scarcity,
short-growing seasons and drought. Within those natural contexts,
human activity, mainly the production of solid waste, waste water,
gases and the manipulation of soil, vegetation and rivers, results
in human induced limits to water availability. Falkenmark (1992)
proposed that in considering population impacts, land and water
resources should be conceptualized together within a holistic
landscape framework rather than separately, as has been the case to
date.
Falkenmark (1991) and Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) have
quantified levels of water scarcity in developing countries in
relation to population size using national hyrodological data and
data on current and projected populations by developing region.
They defined three levels of increasing water scarcity in terms of
population per unit of annual water flow. Water quality and dry
season problems could occur at 100-600 persons per unit water flow,
water stress problems at 600-1000 persons per unit water flow, and
absolute water scarcity at 1,000 or more persons per unit water
flow. They classified developing regions according to those three
levels between 1990 and 2025. Using this classification,
Falkenmark (1991) and Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) concluded
that most African countries had experienced and would continue to
experience absolute water scarcity, with over 1,000 persons per
unit water flow from 1990 to 2025. In Asia, persons per unit water
flow are expected to be generally 600 or more from 1990 to 2025,
indicating a situation of continued water stress. Falkenmark and
Widstrand (1992) further estimated that by 2025 over 1 billion
people in Africa and southern Asia will live under conditions of
water scarcity. Latin America reflects the least critical
situation, with persons per unit water flow generally under 600
during the period. However, Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992)
observed that in Latin America, unlike Africa and Asia, the
majority of the population resided in urban areas where water
quality and supply were widely affected by pollution from
industrial and household waste. They concluded that population
growth could place severe constraints on development, particularly
in Africa, since development is linked to increased water demands
for improved health, food security and industrial growth.
Falkenmark (1991) has also considered the relationship between
population per unit water flow and length of growing season as an
indicator of water stress in Africa, using agricultural census and
water availability data from the 1980s. Falkenmark assumed that
longer growing seasons imply a greater demand for irrigated
agriculture. Longer growing seasons combined with high population
per unit water flow, therefore, further enhance water stress.
Those African countries which Falkenmark has identified as having
current and future severe water stress due to high population per
unit water flow (over 1,000) combined with long growing seasons are
all North African countries, Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa, United
Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
Arcia and Bustamente (1992) estimated the impact of population
growth in Quito, Ecuador, on the availability of water between 1970
and 2020, using population census and municipal water service data.
They estimated the proportion of population covered by water
services annually over the period as a function of urban population
growth (4 per cent per annum on average in 1970-1990) and municipal
unit costs and expenditures on water services. Their estimations
indicated that the proportion of the population with access to
potable water declined between 1970 and 1990. They attributed this
decline to the fact that municipal expenditures on water did not
keep pace with the city's population growth. They also estimated
future water consumption and availability to the year 2020 based on
current (4 per cent per annum) and declining rates of urban
population growth. Their projections indicated that if urban
population growth declined to 1.8 per cent per annum by 2020, water
consumption would be 9 per cent less than if population growth
remained at 4 per cent per annum. Their results also indicated
that water service coverage would be substantially increased if the
population growth rate declined to 2020. They concluded that lower
population growth would contribute to increased water availability
in Quito in the future.
==================================================================
PART TWO. GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
III. Issues
A. Migration
The current literature includes numerous scattered suggestions
for further research on the relationships between migration and the
environment. The International Organization for Migration and the
Refugee Policy Group (RPG) have proposed a framework for
considering the relationships between migration and the environment
(IOM, 1992). The IOM-RPG framework presents several broad topical
areas for further investigation, including the environmental
determinants of out-migration, the environmental consequences of
in-migration and the description of migration processes which may
have environmental determinants or consequences. Consideration of
environmental determinants and consequences of migration may
include assessing the impact and outcomes of natural disasters,
land degradation and fragmentation, industrial disasters,
urbanization, poverty and economic development and infrastructure
projects which transform the environment (e.g., dam construction,
large-scale plantations, mechanized agriculture, roads and
industrial factories). Research on the environmental determinants
and consequences of migration should include studies of both
sending and receiving areas. Analysis of the migration process may
include considering the magnitude, timing (emergency, temporary or
permanent), type (national or international) of movement, and
intervening factors (e.g., political boundaries). In addition,
differentials in environmentally related migration by age, sex and
other characteristics should be assessed.
B. Poverty and development
A number of descriptive studies consider population and the
environment in relation to the wider issues of poverty and
development (Hardoy and Satterthwaite, 1985 and 1989; Durning,
1989; Stupp and Bilsborrow, 1989; Camp, 1991; Keyfitz, 1991a-d;
Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) 1991; DeWalt and
Stonnich, 1992; International Labor Office, 1992; World Bank,
1992). However, only a few studies have formulated specific
indicators of poverty (Bilsborrow 1992b; Cruz and others, 1992;
Mink, 1993). There is a need to further develop specific
indicators of poverty, as well as of development for consideration
in the study of population and the environment. There is also a
need for further research on the relationships between population,
the environment and changing consumption patterns, gender relations
and patterns of access to natural resources that accompany
development (Arizpe and others, forthcoming). Future research on
population and the environment that addresses such relationships
will contribute to a greater understanding of what constitutes
"sustainable development".
C. Critical geographical areas
The identification of geographical regions where the analysis
of population-environment relationships is particularly critical
due to ecological fragility combined with high population growth or
development pressures has been suggested (Blaikie and Brookfield,
1987; Myers, 1988; Shaw, 1989; Clarke, 1992; United Nations, 1992;
Kasperson and others, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming).
The calculation of carrying capacity has been used to identify
agriculturally critical areas previously (see above section II.A).
Additional development of carrying-capacity studies, as well as the
further development of other modelling activities, may allow the
identification of current and future critical geographical areas
where the need for research on population-environment relationships
is particularly urgent.
D. Women
Future research should also seek to identify and study key
population subgroups involved in resource management, in
particular, women (Cruz and others, 1993; Arizpe and others,
forthcoming). Arizpe and others, suggested that future research
examine how changes in the household division of labor and domestic
production may affect women and their use and management of natural
resources. They also suggested additional research on gender
differentials in the perception of resources and attitudes towards
the environment.
E. Specific issues for future research by topic
Issues for future research by literature survey topic
(carrying capacity and macro models, agricultural land, forests,
urban areas and freshwater resources) are listed in annex I to the
present document. The literature review suggested that the bulk of
current research on population and the environment be focused on
issues related to rural areas and the topics of agricultural land
and forests. A need for more careful research on these topics, in
terms of specification of issues, methods and data used, exists.
The following sections and annex I provide some suggestions along
those lines. Only a limited amount of research has yet addressed
population-environment relationships in the context of urban areas
or in relation to freshwater resources (as well as oceans and
fisheries). In general, the quantity as well as quality of
research on urban areas and water resources, therefore, needs to be
considerably advanced. Annex 1 also provides some specific
suggestions relative to these topics.
IV. Methods
A. The need for better hypothesis formulation
and causal-temporal analysis
The majority of recent studies on population-environment
relationships are descriptive. Cross-sectional quantitative or
qualitative data and relationships are generally presented and
cause and effect over time simply inferred. More direct
exploration of the temporal sequence of events leading to
environmental change and specific examination of the role played by
population is necessary. Conversely, the impact of environmental
change on population needs to be similarly explored with respect to
temporal sequence. To this end, future research should undertake
a clearer formulation and testing of hypotheses about cause and
effect relationships between population and environmental variables
over time. Wood (1993b) has also suggested the need for the
further specification of the scale of time that may be presumed in
the study of population-environment relations, for example the
consideration of short-term versus long-term impacts. Future
causal-temporal analysis would ideally be based upon longitudinal
data that allow tracking the sequence of events leading to
environmental (or population) change over time. For example,
further analysis of land degradation in rural areas may benefit by
the postulation of specific theoretical relationships and the
subsequent collection and analysis of information on the temporal
sequence of events that link population growth or increased
density, land fragmentation, more intensified use of land,
deforestation and soil erosion. Moreover, with more precise
hypothesis formulation and testing there is also much scope for
analysing causal-temporal relationships between population and
environmental variables using existing cross-sectional data
(censuses, surveys, satellite imagery and other government
administrative data sources).
B. Clarifying the level of analysis
The nature and study of population-environment relationships
vary according to the unit or level of analysis considered.
"Macrolevel" research involves large units of analysis such as the
globe, developing regions, countries, or regions within countries.
"Microlevel" analysis, in contrast, involves smaller units of
analysis such as households, families, or specific communities.
Macro and microlevels of analysis imply different data needs,
methodological approaches and possibilities for the generalization
of conclusions. Macrolevel research generally draws on existing
aggregate data, involves quantitative approaches that make global,
cross-regional or cross-country assessments, and produces
conclusions that provide information on general relationships that
apply to large populations or geographical regions. Macrolevel
studies may also help identify broad hypotheses for testing at the
microlevel. Microlevel research, in contrast, requires
disaggregated data, frequently involves qualitative methods and
specialized data collection, and produces less generalizable
conclusions that relate to small specific populations or
communities. Microlevel research, however, can draw upon much more
detailed information to identify how social, economic, cultural and
institutional factors influence the nature of
population-environment relationships in different contexts
(Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992).
The need exists for clearer specification of levels of
analysis in research on population and the environment. Moreover,
more consideration should be given to defining what type of data
and methods are most appropriate at the macrolevel and microlevel
as well as the type of conclusions that can be drawn (Bilsborrow
and Geores, 1993; Ness and others, 1993; Arizpe and others,
forthcoming; Lutz, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming). The
majority of recent research on population and the environment has
been at the macro-level. In this regard, the need for better and
additional microlevel research has been increasingly suggested
(Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Jacobsen and Price, 1990; Clarke,
1992; Bilsborrow and Geores, 1993; Arizpe and Velasquez,
forthcoming; Arizpe and others, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke,
forthcoming). There is also a need to link information collected
from macrolevel and microlevel research (Zaba and Clarke,
forthcoming). Arizpe and others, (forthcoming) presented one
comprehensive methodology for such linkages in rural areas. They
suggested that research began by documenting patterns of local
resource use and proceeding to identify factors (social, cultural,
economic, political) at regional, national and international levels
that mediate those patterns. A similar approach has been suggested
in the field of human ecology by Vayda (1983) and has been applied
by Wood (1993) and Wood and Schmink (1993a) to study
population-environment relationships on the Brazilian Amazon
frontier.
C. Improvements in the measurement and use of
population and environmental variables
The majority of current research considers population only in
terms of population size and density (Hogan, 1992; Zaba and Clarke,
forthcoming). Other aspects of population, especially migration
(as discussed above), need greater consideration and the effects of
population growth and migration need to be distinguished. In
addition, the long-term environmental impacts of population
momentum are also of interest (Lutz, forthcoming). Finally, it is
desirable to examine the environmental impacts of population
composition (sex and age) and socio-economic characteristics
(marital status, educational status etc.).
In contrast to population, which has been defined and
operationalized in a precise but limited way, definitions used for
environmental variables have varied in current research. Thus,
environmental variables have been defined a priori by researchers
according to resource (water, air, forests and land), by climatic
zone, or by urban or rural location. Units of analysis range from
the global environment, to national, subnational, community and
household environments. Variables used to indicate environmental
degradation also vary from specific quantitative measures of soil
loss and deforestation to more qualitative impressionistic
reporting of overall deterioration. At the same time, in the
formulation of environmental variables, there has been little
consideration of the social boundaries of environments and of
environmental degradation as perceived by local residents (Blaikie
and Brookfield, 1987; Leff, 1993; Ness and others, 1993). There
is, therefore, a need for clearer specification, elaboration, and
justification of environmental variables and variables of
environmental degradation used in a given research context.
D. Need for multidisciplinary research
Current research on population and the environment continues
to be carried out largely within the confines of separate
disciplines despite a recognition, by both social and natural
scientists of the need for a multidisciplinary approach (Blaikie
and Brookfield, 1987; Jacobson and Price, 1990; Clarke, 1992; Leff,
1993; Stern, 1992 and 1993). This has been attributed to a lack of
institutional support within the academic community, a lack of a
common research vocabulary and theoretical paradigm, problems of
data compatibility, and funding sources which continue to be
strongly oriented around specific disciplines (PRC, 1992).
Recent suggestions for advancing multidisciplinary efforts
include creating multidisciplinary training programmes for
researchers and coordinating existing independent population and
environmental research projects (PRC, 1992). The undertaking of
specific multidisciplinary case-studies of, for example, several
cities, tropical forests, or island areas in the developing world
has also been proposed to serve as a starting point for the
development of a common theoretical paradigm and future agenda
(PRC, 1992). The use of geographic information systems (GIS) may
also support the evolution of multidisciplinary research, and is
discussed further below (chap. V).
V. Data
A. Improvements in population and environmental
data compatibility
There is currently a lack of compatibility between population
and environmental data (Clarke and Rhind, 1991). Population data,
for example, from censuses and surveys, are collected by political
or administrative unit. Population data, therefore, rarely match
environmental data, which are collected usually by ecosystem,
topographic, or climatic zone. The future investigation of
population-environment relationships would thus benefit
substantially from the collection of demographic data in a way that
would facilitate analysis by ecological or climatic zone (Cruz and
others, 1993; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming). Conversely, the
growing wealth of environmental data available from satellite
imagery technologies offers a great potential for the analysis of
population-environment relationships if greater compatibility with
demographic data can be achieved.
The use of GIS to analyse population and environmental data
from multiple sources and disciplines has also been suggested
(Jacobson and Price, 1990; Clarke and Rhind, 1991; Cruz and others,
1993; Zinn and others, 1993). GIS allows the creation of map-like
images that can overlay point source data (e.g., water quality),
flow data (e.g., migration or population growth rates), and areal
patterns (e.g., population density, forest cover and land use).
More complicated GIS images may be created through the use of
computers while simpler images may be created by hand (Zinn and
others, 1993). The use of GIS may also serve as a concrete means
of promoting multidisciplinary approaches since it requires data
inputs from and coordination among different disciplines (PRC,
1992).
B. Better use of existing data
Arcia (1992) and Bilsborrow (1992c) have argued for a more
complete use of existing information, noting that the generation
and maintenance of new complex data sets is beyond the resources of
many developing countries. Several existing databases contain both
population and environmental data and may be used in future
research. These include: the World Bank Living Standard
Measurement Surveys (LSMS), carried out in about a 12 developing
countries; the Historic Land Use and Carbon Estimate Database for
South and Southeast Asia, 1880-1980 (Richards, forthcoming); UNESCO
Man in the Biosphere (MAB) Program data (MAB, 1987; Di Castri,
1981); and the Consortium for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN, 1992). The World Resources Institute
and Brookings Institute (1993) is also currently assembling a
computerized database which will bring together longitudinal
information on population, environmental and socio-economic
variables for both developed and developing countries. UNESCO has
recently compiled a computerized bibliographic database on
desertification called "ISIS" which aims to facilitate the
identification of data sets for study.
Existing computer-based GIS that may be further exploited to
examine population-environment relationships include: the Global
Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) and the Global Resource
Information Data Base (GRID) created by the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP) 1985; Gwynne and Mooneyhan, 1989); and
the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), maintained by the United
States Agency for International Development (USAID) (Bass, 1986;
Walsh, 1986 and 1988). Local-level population and environment
monitoring systems (PEMS) have also been set up in some developing
countries, including Indonesia, Mexico and Zimbabwe (Zinn and
others, 1993). These systems are prospectively collecting
demographic, health, socio-economic and environmental data at the
local level for integration into GIS.
Several current studies discussed in the literature survey
draw on existing agricultural and population census data to examine
population-environment relationships in various countries of
Central America (Stonich, 1989; Stupp and Bilsborrow, 1989;
Harrison, 1990; Bilsborrow and DeLargy, 1991; DeWalt and Stonich,
1992; DeWalt and others, 1993). The potential for wider use of
existing population and agricultural census data is highlighted by
Bilsborrow (1992c). Simple alterations in the collection of
agricultural and population census data, for example, the use of
linked identification codes, would allow their greater combined use
in the future even at the level of the household (Bilsborrow, 1992;
Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992). Pooling resources from separate
single-purpose surveys covering the same population can be another
means of collecting appropriate data on population-environment
relationships through existing data collection mechanisms.
As noted in the Introduction to this literature survey,
research and data in languages other than English, which may be
ongoing in research centers in developing countries or is as yet
unpublished, has not been considered here. This research and
existing data should also be assessed.
C. Future data collection
While existing information should be better exploited in
future research, the need also exists for the upgrading and design
of specialized databases for the integrated long-term analysis of
population, land use, economic and environmental trends (Cruz and
others, 1993). The design of an environmental module to be added
to the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) has been proposed (PRC,
1992). Inclusion of an environmental module in the DHS could
produce data that could be analysed in conjunction with the
extensive socio-economic and demographic data and more limited
community-level data collected by the surveys. Such data could
provide comparative national and household data on population and
the environment.
With regard to the further study of migration and the
environment, Bilsborrow (1992c) has stressed that additional data
collection on places of origin and receiving areas is highly
desirable. This would allow analysis of the environmental
determinants and consequences of migration in sending areas and in
areas of destination.
=================================================================
ANNEX 1
Specific recommendations for future research issues
by literature survey topic
(a) Carrying Capacity and Macro Models
1. Undertake carrying capacity and macro model studies to
identify critical geographic areas.
(b) Agricultural Land
1. Evaluate the direct effects of urbanization on levels and
patterns of consumption as well as its indirect effects on
agricultural production and land use.
2. Collect and analyze household-level data to identify the
demographic and other determinants (e.g., population growth, land
tenure) and consequences (e.g., changes in land use, technology,
crops, environmental degradation) of land fragmentation.
3. Project the amount of out-migration required to counter-
balance the effects of natural population growth on land
fragmentation.
4. Conduct further country-level case studies of the
relationships between population growth, density, and migration, on
the one hand, and agricultural extensification and intensification,
rural employment, and land degradation on the other.
5. Assess the role played by population growth, size, density,
distribution and migration in relation to desertification through
analysis of time-series data on population, water use and land use,
particularly in the Sahel as well as in semi-arid areas and range
lands.
6. Analyze labor availability and demographic change in relation
to land degradation at the local level.
7. Conduct case studies on areas where population growth, land
conservation, and increased agricultural land productivity have
successfully occurred.
8. Examine the roles played by institutions, land tenure and
reform, and other government policies in mediating population-
environment relationships.
9. Study the effects of land degradation on stimulating different
types of out-migration and the creation of so-called "environmental
refugees."
10. Use of cross-country data to more intensively analyze the
linkages between population change and land use changes, while
controlling for socio-economic and political differences across
countries.
(c) Forests
1. Conduct regional and national case studies on both the causes
and consequences of deforestation based on existing sources of data
(e.g., population and agricultural censuses, satellite imagery).
2. Analyze changes in household-level demographic variables
(household size, age-sex composition) over time in relation to land
use, land clearing, and deforestation.
3. Analyze the determinants of migration to forest frontier areas
through the collection and analysis of data on migrants and
non-migrants in both sending and destination areas.
4. Study the effects of deforestation on time spent in fuelwood
collection, and on household distribution of labor, including
women's time allocation, nutrition and health.
5. Analyze the relative impacts of demographic factors,
subsistence farming, commercial farming, and ranching on
deforestation.
6. Analyze country, community and household level data to
identify the various levels of factors influencing deforestation by
households.
7. Conduct studies on the nature and extent of population-
deforestation linkages in particularly fragile ecosystems or
critical areas.
(d) Urban Areas
1. Examine changes in pollutants over time, for example, carbon
dioxide emissions or water pollution, in relation to changes in
population growth, size, and distribution.
2. Study the impacts of efforts to encourage (e.g., Puerto Rico)
or restrict (e.g., China and Indonesia) urban growth on the local
and national environment.
3. Investigate the linkages between population and the
environment in urban and rural areas resulting from rural-urban
migration and growing urban demands for fuelwood, food and other
commodities.
4. Study the environmental impacts of urban growth on nearby
coastal areas.
5. Study the impacts of exposure to urban pollutants on human
health, including incidence of illness by age and sex.
(e) Freshwater Resources
1. Conduct micro-level studies of specific locales comparing
population and economic changes to changes in water flows and water
pollution levels over time.
2. Study changes in water supplies and time spent in water
collection on household distribution of labor, women's time
allocation, nutrition and health.
3. Investigate the impact of population density on water supplies
and sanitation.
4. Study of the relationships between population dynamics and
water availability and water use in contexts where desertification
may be occurring.
5. Study the relative effects of population growth on direct
water demands for household use and indirect water demands for
agricultural production.
=================================================================
ANNEX 2
Selected institutions involved in research on
population-environment relations
AFRICA
Kenya
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi
Mali
CERPOD
BP 1530, Bamako
ASIA
Indonesia
Demographic Institute
University of Indonesia
Jalan Salemba Raya 4
Jakarta 10430
Pakistan
National Institute of Population Studies
House No. 8
Street No. 70, F-8/3
P. O. Box 2197, Islamabad
Philippines
Population Institute
University of the Philippines
3rd Floor Palma Hall
P. O. Box 479
Diliman, Quezon City
Thailand
Institute of Population Studies
Chulalongkorn University
Bangkok 10330
Institute for Population and Social Research
Mahidol University
25/25 Puthamoltol 4, Salaya, 73170
Nakornpathom
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil
Center for Development and Regional Planning (CEDEPLAR)
Rua Curitiba 832
Belo Horizonte 30170 M.G.
Population Studies Center
State University of Campinas
13081 Campinas-S.P.
Instituto Sociedade, Populacao e Natureza (ISPN)
Caixa Postal 9944
Brasilia, DF 700001-970
Mexico
Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisiplinarias de la
Universidad Autonoma de Mexico (CRIM-UNAM)
Cuidade Universitaria
Santa Maria
Cuernavaca, Morelos
Consejo Nacional de Poblacion (CONAPO)
Angel Uraza 1137 Col. del Valle
CD D3100
Mexico, D. F.
Programa De Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo Sustenable
Y Medio Ambiente (LEAD-Mexico)
Centro Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano
El Colegio de Mexico
Camino al Ajusco 20
Pedregal de Santa Teresa
10740, Mexico, D.F.
EUROPE
Austria
Population Project
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
A-2361 Laxenburg
Belgium
Department des sciences de la population et du development
Center International de Formation et de recherche en Population
et Development (CIDEP)
Universite Catholique de Louvain
1 Montesquieu, Boite 17
B-1348, Louvain-la-Neuve
France
Center Francais sur la Population et le Developpment (CEPED)
15, rue de l'Ecole de Medecine
75270 Paris Cedex 06
International Social Science Council (ISSC)
1 rue Miollis
75015 Paris
UNESCO Man in the Biosphere Programme (MAB)
UNESCO
75700 Paris
Laboratoire Population-Environment
Universite de Provence
ORSTOM
25 rue de la Providence
13710 Fuveau
Netherlands
Netherlands Inter-Disciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
P. O. Box 11650
2502 AR, The Hague
Poland
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization
Polish Academy of Sciences
Krakowskie Przedmiescie 30
00-927 Warszawa
Sweden
Programme on Population and Development
Department of Sociology
University of Lund
Finngatan 16
S-223 62 LUND
Switzerland
International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
rue Mauverney 28
CH-1196 Gland
United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD)
Program on Environment, Sustainable Development and Social Change
Palais des Nations
1211 Geneva 10
United Kingdom
Centre for Population Studies
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
99 Gower Street
London WC1E 6AZ
International Institute for the Environment and Development
3 Endsleigh Street
London WC1H ODD
Department of Geography
Universty of Liverpool
P. O. Box 147
Liverpool L69 3BX
UNITED STATES
Center for World Environment and Sustainable Development
Duke University, North Carolina State University,
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Box 7619
North Carolina State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7619
Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change
Social Science Research Council (SSRC)
605 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10158
Environmental and Natural Resource Training Project (ETAP)
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Winrock International Environmental Alliance
1611 Kent Street, Suite 600
Arlington, VA 22209
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
1776 Mass Avenue, N. W.
Washington, D.C. 20003
George Perkins Marsh Institute
Clarke University
850 Main Street
Worcester, MA 01610
Department of Human Ecology
Rutgers University
New Brunswick, NJ
The Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies
Stanford University
Herrin Labs 467
Stanford, CA 94305
Population Environment Dynamics Project (PEDP)
Department of Population Planning
School of Public Health
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Centre for Demography and Ecology
University of Wisconsin
Madison, Wisconsin 53706
=================================================================
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Additional topics
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(1992); Gilbert, A., and L. Braat (1991); Grainger, A. (1993);
Hawley, A. H. (1986); Hayes, B. (1993); Herrera, A. (1975);
Higgins, G., and others (1982); Hogan, D. (1993a); Hogan, D., and
P. Burian (1993); International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) (1991); King, J. (1991); Leff, E. (1993); Lutz,
W., and others (1993); Lutz, W., and E. Holm (1992); Lutz, W., and
F. L. Toth, eds. (1991); Mahar, D. (1985); May, J. (1993); Meadows,
D. (1985); Meadows, D., and others (1972); Meadows, D., and others
(1992); Merino, L., and B. O'Hanlon, eds. (1991); Mutrai, S., and
others (1990); Njoka, B. (1991); Palo, M. (1990); Panayotou, T.,
and S. Sungsuwan (1989); Picardi, A. (1974); Repetto, R., and T.
Holmes (1983); Revelle, R. (1984); Ridker, R. G. (1979); Robinson,
W., and W. Schutjer (1984); Sanderson, W. C. (1992); Scotti, R.
(1990); Simon, J. (1981); Steinmann, G. (1988); Stycos, J. (1993);
Western, S. (1988); Zaba, B., and I. Scoones (forthcoming).
Agricultural land and rangelands
Abu-Sin, M., and M. El-Sammani (1988); Agarwal, B. (1985); Agarwal,
B. (1986b); Agarwal, B. (1988); Bardhan, P. (1988); Bass, T.
(1986); Benoit, D., and P. Levang (1990); Bilsborrow, R. (1987);
Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);
Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (forthcoming); Bilsborrow, R., and M.
Geores (1993); Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp (forthcoming); Blaikie,
P. (1985); Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield, eds. (1987); Boserup, E.
(1965); Boserup, E. (1976); Boserup, E. (1981); Bromley, D. (1989);
Brush, S. (1987); Buringh, P., and R. Dudal (1987); Cain, M., and
G. McNicoll (1988); Caldwell, J. (1984); Ceberry, C., and others
(1987); Chayanov, A. (1966); Clay, D. (1993); Cleaver, K. M., and
G. Schreiber (1992); Collins, J. (1987); Collins, J. L. (1986);
Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993); Costello,
M. A. (1988); Coulter, J. (1992); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993);
Cruz, M., and others (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991); DeWalt, B.
(1985); DeWalt, B., and P. Bidegaray (1991); DeWalt, B., and S.
Stonich (1992); DeWalt, B., S. Stonich and S. Hamilton
(forthcoming); DeWalt, B., and others (1993); Diejomaoh, V. (1988);
Donnor, W. (1987); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Ehrlich,
P., A. Ehrlich and G. Daily (1993); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P.
Vimard (1989); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P. Vimard (1991);
Fearnside, P. (1984); Fearnside, P. (1988); Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1983); FAO (1991); FAO
(1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1991); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989);
Fratkin, E. (1991); Fuentes, E. (1990); Fuentes, E., R. Aviles and
A. Segura (1989); Garland, E. B. (1987); Geertz, C. (1968); Geores,
M. E., and R. E. Bilsborrow (1991); Ghosh, P. K., ed. (1984);
Gilloghy, _____ and _____ Ranbo, eds. (1993); Gleave, B.
(forthcoming); Godoy, R. A. (1984); Gould, B. (forthcoming);
Harrison, S. (1990); Hayami, Y., and V. Ruttan (1985); Hazarika, S.
(1993); Hecht, S. (1992); Heilig, G. (1993); Higgins, G., and
others (1982); Ho, T. J. (1985); Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock
(1987); Hrabovszky, J., and K. Miyan (1987); Hyden, G., R. Kates
and B. Turner (1993); Ibrahim, F. (1987); Jodha, N. (1985); Jodha,
N. (1987); Jodha, N. (1991); Jolly, C., and B. Torrey, eds.
(forthcoming); Kanaskar Thapa, K. (1992); Kumar, S., and Hotchkiss
(1988); Ledec, G. (1992); Ledec, G., and R. Goodland, eds. (1988);
Lele, U. (1991); Lele, U., and S. W. Stone (1989); Li, J. (1991);
Lipton, M. (1993); Little, P. (forthcoming); Little, P. (1987);
Martine, G. (1988); Mathieu, P. (1990); May, J. (1993); McIntosh,
A. (1993); McNicoll, G., and M. Cain, eds. (1989); Meyer, W., and
B. Turner (1992); Milas, S. (1985); Mohamed, Y., and M. Abu-Sin
(1985); Mortimore, M. (1986); Mortimore, M. (1992); Moss, R., and
W. Morgan (1981); Okafor, F. (1987); Painter, M. (1987); Panayotou,
T. (1991); Panayotou, T., and C. Parasuk (1990); Panayotou, T., and
S. Sungsuwan (1989); Picardi, A. (1974); Pichon, F., S. Vosti and
J. Witcover (1993); Pichon, F., and R. Bilsborrow (forthcoming);
Picouet, M. (1990); Picouet, M. (1991); Picouet, M. (1992);
Pingali, P., and H. Binswanger (1987); Pingali, P. and H.
Binswanger (1988); Provencio, E., and J. Carabias (1993); Ramsay,
W. (1986); Ren, Q. (1987); Repetto, R. (1989a); Richards, J., E.
Flint and R. Daniels (forthcoming); Robinson, W., and W. Schutjer
(1984); Rosenzweig, M., H. Binswanger and J. McIntire (1988);
Rudel, T., and B. Horowitz (1993b); Russell, W. (1988); Ruttan, V.
(forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and Y. Hayami (1991); Sawyer, D.
(1993); Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia (SEDUE) (1986);
Shapiro, D. (1993); Showers, K., and G. Malahleha (1992); Shrestha,
N. (1982); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Southgate, D. (1992); Stiles, D.
(1985); Stiles, D. (1985); Stocking, M. (1987); Stonich, S. (1989);
Stonich, S., and B. DeWalt (1989); Stupp, P., and R. Bilsborrow
(1989); Surapaty, S., and others (1993); Talbot, L. (1989);
Thiesenhusen, W. (1989); Thiesenhusen, W. (1991); Tiffen, M., and
M. Mortimore (1992); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (1992);
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (1985); United Nations
Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO) (1990); Walsh, J. (1986); Walsh, J.
(1988); Wolman, M., and F. Fournier, eds. (1987); World Bank
(1988); Wu, S., and others (1987); Xenos, P. (1993).
Forests
Agarwal, B. (1986a); Agbo, V., and others (1993); Allen, J. (1985);
Allen, J. C., and D. F. Barnes (1985); Anderson, D. (1984);
Anderson, D. (1986); Anderson, D., and R. Fishwick (1984);
Ardayfio-Schandorf, E. (1993); Barnes, D. F. (1990); Barraclough,
S., and K. Ghimire (1990); Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R.
(1992b); Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores
(1992); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (forthcoming); Bilsborrow,
R., and M. Geores (1993); Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp
(forthcoming); Bogue, D. E. (1993); Bonin, G., and others (1992);
Bowonder, B. (1985); Brechin, S., and others (1993); Browder, J.
(1989); Clawson, D. L. (1982); Cline-Cole, R. (1987); Cline-Cole,
R., H. Main and J. Nichol (1990); Collins, J. L. (1986); Coulter,
J. (1992); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993); Cruz, M., and others
(1992); Cruz, W., and M. Cruz (1990); DeWalt, B. (1985); DeWalt,
B., and S. Stonich (1992); DeWalt, B., S. Stonich and S. Hamilton
(forthcoming); DeWalt, B., and others (1993); Diegues, A., P.
Kageyama and V. Viana (1992); Donnor, W. (1987); Dorner, P., and W.
Thiesenhusen (1991); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Eckholm,
E. (1975); Eckholm, E., and others (1984); Fearnside, P. (1982);
Fearnside, P. (1984); Fearnside, P. (1986); Fearnside, P. (1988);
Fearnside, P. (1990); Feldman, A. (1990); Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1987); FAO (1991); FAO
(1992); Foweraker, J. (1981); French, D. (1986); Geores, M. E., and
R. E. Bilsborrow (1991); Godoy, R. A. (1984); Goodland, R. (1991);
Grainger, A. (1993); Gregersen, H., P. Oram and J. Spears, ed.
(1992); Gregersen, H. (1992); Guppy, N. (1984); Hall, A. L. (1989);
Hallsworth, E. G., ed. (1982); Harrison, S. (1990); Hecht, S.
(1992); Heming, J. (1982a); Heming, J. (1982b); Herrera, R., and
others (1981); Hrabovszky, J., and K. Miyan (1987); Ives, J. D.
(1988); Jodha, N. (1992); Jones, J. (1992); Kanaskar Thapa, K.
(1992); Kumar, S., and Hotchkiss (1988); Lanly, J. (1982); Ledec,
G. (1985); Ledec, G. (1992); Leonard, H. (1989); Leopoldo, P., F.
Wolfram and E. Matsui (1982); Li, J. (1991); Lovejoy, T. (1982);
Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T., and others (1986);
Mahat, T., and others (1986); Mather, A. S. (1989); Meyer, W., and
B. Turner (1992); Moran, E. (1981); Moran, E. (1982); Moran, E.
(1990); Morgan, W. (1981); Moss, R., and W. Morgan (1981); Myers,
N. (1979); Myers, N. (1988); Myers, N. (1991); O'Keefe, P. and P.
Raskin (1985); Palloni, A. (1992); Palo, M. (1990); Panayotou, T.
(1991); Panayotou, T., and C. Parasuk (1990); Panayotou, T., and S.
Sungsuwan (1989); Pichon, F., S. Vosti and J. Witcover (1993);
Pichon, F., and R. Bilsborrow (forthcoming); Plumwood, V., and R.
Routley (1982); Ramsay, W. (1986); Ren, Q. (1987); Repetto, R.
(1990); Richards, J. F., and R. P. Tucker, eds. (1988); Rudel, T.
(1983); Rudel, T. (1989); Rudel, T. (1993a); Rudel, T., and B.
Horowitz (1993b); Sawyer, D. (1987); Sawyer, P. (1992); Schmink, M.
(1988); Schmink, M. (forthcoming); Schmink, M., and C. Wood (1987);
Schmink, M., and Wood, C. (1993); Scotti, R. (1990); Shrestha, N.
(1982); Shrestha, N. (1989); Shrestha, N. (1990); Shrestha, N., and
D. Conway (1985); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Skole, D., and C. Tucker
(1993); Southgate, D. (1992); Southgate, D., and C. Runge (1990);
Southgate, D., R. Sierra and L. Brown (1989); Surapaty, S., and
others (1993); Sydenstricker, J., and S. Vosti (1993); Thapa, G.
B., and K. E. Weber (1991); Thompson, M., M. Warburton and T.
Hatley (1987); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); Utting, P. (1991); Whitney,
H. (1987); Williams, M. (1989); Williams, M. (1990); Wood, C.
(1993a); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993); World Bank (1988).
Urban areas
Arcia, G. (1990); Arcia, G., G. Bustamente and J. Paguay (1991);
Arcia, G., and G. Bustamente (1992); Arcia, G., and others (1991);
Benitez, J., and others (1993); Benneh, G. (1992); Bonin, G., and
others (1992); Brown, L., and J. Jacobson (1987); Cline-Cole, R.
(1987); Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993);
D'Monte, D. (1991); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P. Vimard (1989);
Ferreira, C. (1992); Hamza, A. (1992); Hardoy, J., and D.
Satterthwaite (1985); Hardoy, J. E., and D. Satterthwaite (1989);
Hogan, D. (1988a); Hogan, D. (1988b); Hogan, D. (1992b); Hogan, D.,
and P. Burian (1993); International Labour Office (1991); Jacobi,
P. (1992); Lowry, I. (1991); Merino, L., and B. O'Hanlon, eds.
(1991); Mexico, Consejo Nacional de Poblacion (CONAPO) (1991);
Population Environment and Development Program (PEDP)
(forthcoming); Roberts, B. (forthcoming); Rybakovsky, L. (1992);
Sanchez, V., M. Castillejos and L. Bracho (1989); Satterthwaite, D.
(1993); Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia (SEDUE) (1986);
Smolka, M. (1993); United Nations Centre for Human Settlements
(1992).
Freshwater resources
Arcia, G., and G. Bustamente (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991);
Falkenmark, M. (1989); Falkenmark, M. (1991); Falkenmark, M.
(1992); Falkenmark, M., and C. Widstrand (1992); Fratkin, E.
(1991); Gleick, P. (1992); Grosse, S. (1993); Heming, J. (1982a);
la Riviere, J. (1989); Leonard, H. (1989); Leopoldo, P., F. Wolfram
and E. Matsui (1982); Lovejoy, T. (1982); L'vovich, M., and G.
White (1990); Mohamed, Y., and M. Abu-Sin (1985); Nelson, L., and
C. Sandell (1990); Schwarz, H., and others (1990); The Population
Institute (1990); United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
(1982); United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (1983); Wilson,
K. (1991).
Theory and concepts
Ackerman, E. (1959); Agrasot, P., D. Tabutin and E. Thiltges
(1991); Arizpe, L., P. Stone and D. Major, (forthcoming); Arizpe,
L., and M. Velazquez (forthcoming); Bardhan, P. (1988); Barlow, R.,
and others (1992); Bilsborrow, R. (1987); Bilsborrow, R. (1992a);
Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992); Blaikie, P. (1985); Blaikie,
P. (forthcoming); Boserup, E. (1965); Boserup, E. (1976); Boserup,
E. (1981); Chayanov, A. (1966); Cigno, A. (1985); Davis, K. (1963);
Drake, W. (1993); Duncan, O. (1964); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren
(1971); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren (1974); Geertz, C. (1968);
Ghai, D. (1992); Hardin, G. (1968); Hardin, G. (1993); Hawley, A.
H. (1986); Hogan, D. (1987); Hogan, D. (1987); Hogan, D. (1989);
Hogan, D. (1992a); Hogan, D. (1993a); Hogan, D. (1993b); Izazola,
H. (1992); Jackson, C. (forthcoming); Jacobson, H., and M. Price
(1990); Jolly, C. (1991); Kelly, A. C. (1988); Keyfitz, N. (1991a);
Keyfitz, N. (1991c); Keyfitz, N. (1991d); Keyfitz, N. (1993a);
Keyfitz, N. (1993b); Keyfitz, N. (forthcoming); Lee, R. (1991);
Leff, E. (1993); Lele, U., and S. W. Stone (1989); Lindauer, M.,
and A. Schopf, eds. (1987); Lutz, W. (forthcoming); Lutz, W., L.
Arizpe and R. Costanza (1991); Malthus, T. (1798 and 1803,
republished 1960); Marquette, C. (1993); McNicoll, G. (1990);
McNicoll, G. (1991); McNicoll, G. (1992); McNicoll, G. (1993);
Palloni, A. (1992); Perrings, C. (1989); Pingali, P., and H.
Binswanger (1987); Pingali, P., and H. Binswanger (1988); Robinson,
W., and W. Schutjer (1984); Rosenzweig, M., H. Binswanger and J.
McIntire (1988); Ruttan, V. (forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and Y.
Hayami (1991); Sanderson, W. C. (1992); Schmink, M., and C. Wood
(1993); Shaw, P. (1989a); Shaw, P. (1989b); Shaw, P. (1989c); Shaw,
P. (1992); Simon, J. (1981); Simon, J. (1990); Singh, J., ed.
(1985); Tudela, F. (1992); United Nations Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) (1989); Wood, C.
(1993b); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993).
Migration
Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and
P. DeLargy (1991); Clawson, D. L. (1982); Collins, J. (1987);
Collins, J. L. (1986); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993); Cruz, M.,
and others (1992); Cruz, W., and M. Cruz (1990); David, R. (1993);
Donnor, W. (1987); El-Hinnawi, E. (1985); Gould, B. (forthcoming);
Hardoy, J., and D. Satterthwaite (1985); Hardoy, J. E., and D.
Satterthwaite (1989); Hazarika, S. (1993); Hogan, D. (1988a);
Hogan, D. (1988b); Hogan, D. (1992b); Homer-Dixon, T., J. Boutwell
and G. Rathjens (1993); International Organization for Migration
(IOM), and Refugee Policy Group (RPG) (1992); Jacobson, J. (1988);
Kavanagh, B., and S. Lonergan (1992); Kritz, M. (1990); Low, B. S.,
and A. Clarke (1993); Martine, G. (1988); Moran, E. (1982); Moran,
E. (1990); Richmond, A. (1993a); Richmond, A. (1993b); Rudel, T.
(1983); Rudel, T., and B. Horowitz (1993b); Sawyer, D. (1987);
Sawyer, D. (1993); Schmink, M. (1988); Schmink, M., and Wood, C.
(1993); Shrestha, N. (1982); Shrestha, N. (1989); Shrestha, N.
(1990); Shrestha, N., and D. Conway (1985); Simon, J. (1990);
Suhrke, A. (1993); Vayda, A. (1983); Wood, C. (1993a); Wood, C.,
and M. Schmink (1993); World Bank (1988).
Women
Agarwal, B. (1985); Agarwal, B. (1986a); Agarwal, B. (1986b);
Agarwal, B. (1988); Agarwal, B. (1991); Agarwal, B. (forthcoming);
Ajaegbu, H. I. (1993); Ardayfio-Schandorf, E. (1993); Camp, S.
(1993); Darklener, I. (1988); David, R. (1993); Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1987); FAO
(1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1992); Jackson, C.
(forthcoming); Jacobson, J. (1992); Kumar, S., and D. Hotchkiss
(1988); Merchant, C. (1990); Paolisso, M., and S. W. Yudelman
(1991); Rodda, A. (1991); Sen, G. (forthcoming); Shaw, P. (1989b);
Poverty and development
Agarwal, B. (1986b); Benedick, R. (1988); Bilsborrow, R. (1987);
Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);
Bromley, D. (1989); Brookfield, H. (1981); Browder, J. (1989);
Camp, S. (1991); Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP)
(1993); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Durning, A. (1989);
Foweraker, J. (1981); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989); Geertz, C.
(1968); Ghosh, P. K., ed. (1984); Hogan, D., and P. Burian (1993);
Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock (1987); International Labour
Office (1991); Johnson, G., and R. Lee, eds. (1987); Jones, G.
(1993); Karshenas, M. (1992); Kelly, A. C. (1988); Keyfitz, N.
(1991b); Keyfitz, N. (1993c); Ledec, G. (1985); Lee, R. (1991);
Lee, R., and others, eds. (1988); Lele, U. (1991); Leonard, H.
(1987); Leonard, H. (1989); Leonard, J., ed. (1985); Little, P.
(forthcoming); Lutz, W. (1991); MacKellar, F. (1992); Martine, G.
(1992); Martine, G., ed. (1993a); Martine, G. (1993b); McNicoll,
G., and M. Cain, eds. (1989); Ministerio de Obras Publicas y
Urbanismo de Mexico (MOPU) (1990); Mink, S. D. (1993); Moran, E.
(1981); Njoka, B. (1991); Painter, M. (1987); Palo, M. (1990);
Paolisso, M., and S. W. Yudelman (1991); Pearce, D., and E. Barbier
(1990); Perrings, C. (1989); Plumwood, V., and R. Routley (1982);
Pudasaini, S. (1993); Repetto, R. (1985); Ridker, R. G. (1979);
Ridker, R. G. (1979); Ruttan, V. (forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and
Y. Hayami (1991); Sawyer, D. (1987); Schmink, M. (forthcoming);
Sen, G. (forthcoming); Southgate, D., and M. Whitaker
(forthcoming); Srinivasan, R. N. (1992); Stonich, S. (1989);
Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) (1991); Tudela,
F., ed. (1989); Tudela, F. (1992); Tudela, F. (1993); United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP) (1992); ESCAP (1991); United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (1992); Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1991); United
Nations Secretariat (1992); Utting, P. (1991); Vainer, C. (1993);
van den Oever, P. (1990); van den Oever, P. (1992); World Resources
Institute, and Brookings Institution (1993); World Resources
Institute, and others (1992).
Policy
Arcia, G. (1990); Arcia, G. (1992); Asian Development Bank (1992);
Benedick, R. (1991); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);
Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp (forthcoming); Blaikie, P. (1985);
Brundtland, G. (1990); Camp, S., and others (1992); Corporacion
Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993); Durning, A. (1989);
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
(1987); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989); Gregersen, H. (1992);
Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock (1987); Jones, J. (1992);
Kanaskar Thapa, K. (1992); Kim, O., and P. van den Oever (1992);
Ledec, G. (1985); Leonard, J., ed. (1985); Lopez, M. E. (1987);
May, J. (1993); McIntosh, A. (1993); McNicoll, G., and M. Cain,
eds. (1989); Moran, E. (1981); National Wildlife Federation (1993);
Ornas, A. and M. A. Salih, eds. (1989); Panayotou, T., and C.
Parasuk (1990); Pearce, D., and E. Barbier (1990); Population
Resource Center (1992); Pudasaini, S. (1993); Repetto, R. (1985);
Rudel, T. (1993a); Schmink, M., and C. Wood (1987); Shrestha, N.,
and D. Conway (1985); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Southgate, D., and C.
Runge (1990); Southgate, D., and M. Whitaker (forthcoming);
Stonich, S., and B. DeWalt (1989); Suhrke, A. (1993); The Royal
Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Swedish Council for Planning and
Coordination of Research (1991); Thiesenhusen, W. (1989);
Thiesenhusen, W. (1991); Tiffen, M., and M. Mortimore (1992);
Tuchman Mathews, J., ed. (1990); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); United
Nations (1993); United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO) (1993); Vainer, C. (1993); Wirosuhardjo, L.
(1991); Wirosuhardjo, K. (1993); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993);
World Resources Institute, and Brookings Institution (1993); Xenos,
P. (1993).
Health impacts
Bradley, D., and others (1992); Camp, S. (1991); Drummond, D.
(1975); Feldman, A. (1990); Ferreira, C. (1992); Grosse, S. (1993);
Heilig, G. (1992); Kumar, S., and D. Hotchkiss (1988); Low, B. S.,
and A. Clarke (1993); Sanchez, V., M. Castillejos and L. Bracho
(1989); Sawyer, P. (1992); United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) (1982); UNEP (1987); World Health Organization, Commission
on Health and Environment (WCHE) (forthcoming).
General overview
Arizpe, L., P. Stone and D. Major, (forthcoming); Bandyopadhyay,
J., and others (1985); Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield, eds. (1987);
Brown, L. (1988); Brown, L., and others (1976); Brundtland, G.
(1990); Calhoun, J., and D. Ahuja (1979); Clarke, J., ed. (1992);
Clarke, J., and D. Rhind (1991); Commoner, B. (1991); Commoner, B.
(1992); Consortium for International Earth Science Information
Network (CIESIN) (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991); Davis, K., and M.
Bernstam, eds. (1991); Davis, Kingsley, Mikhail Bernstam and H.
Sellers, eds. (1989); De Sherbinin, A. (1993); Di Castri, F., M.
Hadley and J. Damlamian (1981); Dietz, T. (1993); Eckholm, E.
(1976); Ehrlich, P. (1968); Ehrlich, P., and A. Ehrlich (1977);
Ehrlich, P., and A. Ehrlich (1990); Ehrlich, P., A. Ehrlich and G.
Daily (1993); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren (1971); Ehrlich, P., and
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Climate and air
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Energy
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