UNITED NATIONS POPULATION INFORMATION NETWORK (POPIN)
UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)

Population & the Environment in Developing Countries (ESA/P/WP.123)

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This document is being made available by the Population Information 

Network (POPIN) Gopher of the United Nations Population Division, 

Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

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                                                           Distr.

                                                          LIMITED



                                                    ESA/P/WP.123*

                                                 16 February 1994



                                                     ENGLISH ONLY









                              Draft



     POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:

           LITERATURE SURVEY AND RESEARCH BIBLIOGRAPHY







     *Preliminary, unedited version prepared by the Population

Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and

Policy Analysis, United Nations Secretariat.  It is being made

available in its present form to solicit comments and suggestions,

which should be sent to the Director, Population Division, United

Nations, 2 United Nations Plaza (Rm. DC2-1950), New York, NY 10017,

USA.  The final version will be published at a later date. 

Grateful acknowledgement is due to the United Nations Population

Fund (UNFPA) for providing the financial support which made the

preparation of this monograph possible.

===================================================================



                            CONTENTS

                                                             Page



Introduction





PART ONE.  REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH



Chapter



      I.  Overview of conceptual approaches. . . . . . . . .   3



     II.  Current research on population and the environment

                 in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . 7  

   A.  Carrying capacity and macro models . . . . . . . . .  . 7

            B.  Agricultural land. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

            C.  Forests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  15

            D.  Urban areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  22

            E.  Freshwater resources . . . . . . . . . . . .  24





PART TWO.  GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH



    III.  Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  27



    IV.   Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  28



     V.   Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  30



                                                             

ANNEXES



      I. Specific recommendations for future research issues,

         by literature survey topic . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33



     II. Selected list of institutions involved in research on

         population-environment relations . . . . . . . . . . 36





PART THREE.  BIBLIOGRAPHY



      References by author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  42



      References by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  85



      References by subject. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  86



=================================================================

                          Introduction



     Research on the topic of population and the environment was

given renewed impetus by the United Nations Conference on

Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. 

Chapter 5 of Agenda 21, which was adopted by the Conference,

recommended the development and dissemination of knowledge on the

links between demographic trends and sustainable development

(United Nations, 1993).  The following literature survey and

bibliography represent a response by the Population Division of the

Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis

of the United Nations Secretariat to that recommendation as well as

a contribution to the preparation of the International Conference

on Population and Development.  The purpose of the present paper is

threefold:



     (a)  To provide a comprehensive bibliography on current

research and theory addressing population and the environment;



     (b)  To review a selection of key current research on

population and the environment in developing countries; and



     (c)  To make specific recommendations for further research.



     Research addressing population-environment relationships

continues to be carried out across different disciplines. 

Therefore, a comprehensive survey of current research on population

and the environment would involve reviewing studies across many

different disciplines.  Since this is beyond the scope of the

current activity, a more selective approach has been adopted here. 

The present bibliography and literature review adopt several

specific foci that define their scope.  First, the target audience

is social scientists and policy makers and programme planners that

draw upon social science findings.  Emphasis is placed on research

being carried out by demographers, although the population-related

work of anthropologists, economists, geographers and other social

scientists is also represented.



     The bibliography and literature survey should be useful to

anyone interested in obtaining more information on the topic.  The

geographic focus is on the developing world.  The relationships

between population and the environment in the developed world are,

however, inevitably touched upon in some of the references

discussed.  The bibliography and literature survey of current

research presented here complements several existing reviews of

information on population-environment relationships, which have

aimed at presenting a brief overview of issues, e.g., Jolly, 1991;

Population Information Program, 1992; and de Sherbinin, 1993.





The Literature Survey



     The literature review begins with a general consideration of

conceptual approaches and followed by a review of individual

studies.  The literature survey covers only a sample of references

from the bibliography.  It focuses on recent research rather than

attempting to carry out a comprehensive historical review.  The

majority of the studies cover the period 1990-1993.  Although

population-environment relationships are multidirectional, the

majority of recent research focuses on population impacts on the

environment.  The studies considered in the present literature

review generally reflect this orientation.  The impact of

environmental change on population in relation to health, however,

is specifically considered in the subsection addressing urban areas

(see section II.D below).  The specific topics covered by the

literature survey include: (a) carrying-capacity and modelling; (b)

agricultural land and rangelands; (c) forests; (d) urban areas; and

(e) freshwater resources.  The topics of agricultural land (b) and

forests (c) are further organized by developing region (Africa,

Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean).  The

degradation of oceans and fisheries, depletion of energy resources,

climate change, ozone depletion and loss of biodiversity, which are

not extensively covered in the bibliography (see below) are not

explicitly addressed in the literature survey.  These topics,

however, are indirectly addressed in the context of other issues. 

For example, energy resources are addressed in terms of fuelwood

use in the subsection on forests (see section II.6).



     Studies are assessed as far as possible relative to: (a)

geographical area and time period covered; (b) conceptual approach;

(c) type of data used; (d) methodological approach; and (e) main

substantive findings.





General recommendations for future research



     General recommendations for future research based on the

literature survey are made relative to issues, methods and data. 

Specific recommendations for future research by literature survey

topic (carrying-capacity and macro models; agricultural land;

forests; urban areas; and freshwater resources) are presented in

annex I.  Annex II contains a list of selected institutions that

were found to be currently involved in research on population and

the environment in Africa, Asia, Latin  America, Europe and the

United States in the course of compiling the literature survey and

bibliography.





The bibliography



     The bibliography aims to cover as completely as possible

recent research on population-environment relationships and to

include select historical works.  As indicated above, several

specific topics related to population and the environment

(degradation of oceans and fisheries, depletion of energy

resources, climate change, ozone depletion, and loss of

biodiversity) are not extensively covered in the bibliography since

their inclusion would have necessitated a review of literature on

developed countries as well, which time did not allow.  These

topics have, however, been addressed briefly in another recent

literature review and bibliography (de Sherbinin, 1993).  Time and

resources also did not allow complete access to all important

sources of information.  As a result, research in languages other

than English, in particular in French, Spanish, German, Russian and

Swedish, has not been carefully covered.  Also research occurring

in the developing countries, which has not yet been documented in

English, has also generally not been covered.  These omissions

undoubtedly lead to some lack of representativeness in geographical

and topical coverage and conceptual and methodological approaches.

=================================================================



              PART ONE.  REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH



          I.  Overview of current conceptual approaches



     The Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives represent the two

dominant historical viewpoints on population-environment

relationships.  Malthus (1798 and 1803, republished 1960)

postulated that whereas human population has a tendency to grow

geometrically, agricultural production of food grows only

arithmetically.  In this way, population growth tends to outstrip

the productive capabilities of land resources.  The result is that

"positive" checks, such as famine and increased mortality, or

preventative checks, such as postponement of marriage and

limitation of family size, work to reduce population growth back to

zero.  In more general terms, the Malthusian viewpoint suggests

that limited natural resources place a restriction on population

growth.  This viewpoint has informed much popular discourse on

population-environment relations, most notably the work of Brown

and others (1976), Ehrlich (1968), Ehrlich and Holdren (1971 and

1974), Ehrlich and others (1977), Eckholm (1976), Hardin (1968) and

Meadows and others (1972 and 1992), and emphasizes the "limits" to

population growth.  De Sherbinin (1993) has reviewed this viewpoint

at some length elsewhere.



     Malthusian theory, formulated before the agricultural

revolution, is built upon the assumption that environmental

resources such as land are fixed.  Malthus did not foresee the

technological changes that have accompanied modernization and

allowed agricultural output to increase faster than population

growth.  Boserup (1965, 1976 and 1981), however, explicitly takes

into account technological change.  Moreover, Boserup suggested

that in some cases population growth and resulting increased

population density might induce technological changes that allow

food production to keep pace with population growth.  Simon (1981

and 1990) went further to suggest that population growth induces

sufficient technological change to expand food output faster than

population.  The dominance of either Malthusian or Boserupian

thought in the discussion of population-environment relationships

has led to opposing "limits to growth" and "cornucopian"

perspectives (Hogan, 1992a).



     It is important to note that neither Boserup nor Malthus

specifically addressed population-environment relations, per se,

but rather land use and food production in relation to population. 

Implications for population and environment relationships have,

however, been inferred a posteriori from their work.  Both the

Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives imply linear relationships

between population and the environment (figure I).  Social and

natural scientists have, however, also introduced other nonlinear

ways of thinking about population-environment relationships.  These

non-linear views may consider the "multiplicative" effects between

population and other factors (consumption or technology) in

producing environmental impacts or, alternatively, the "mediating"

effect that other factors (socioeconomic, institutional and

cultural) may have on population-environment relationships (figure

I).  Three distinct perspectives may thus be distinguished in

current research and conceptual thought addressing

population-environment relationships.



     1.   Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives imply direct

relationships between population and the environment, or between

population, technological change and the environment.  The origins

of Malthusian and Boserupian perspectives are discussed above.  The

Malthusian viewpoint has had a direct influence on the development

of the concept of carrying capacity.  As defined by Higgins and

others (1982), this concept implies that the ability of land to

produce food is limited.  Exceeding those limits will, in the long

term, result in degradation and declining land productivity.  As a

result, there are higher levels of population than can be supported

from any given land area.  Population ecology and human ecology,

which deal with questions of environmental carrying capacity,

equilibrium and optimum population size, also reflect this

perspective (Hawley, 1986; Drummond, 1975).  The concept of

carrying capacity has led to several studies and modelling

exercises which are discussed further below (see section II.A). 

The Boserupian perspective has also had an influence on current

research which examines the relationship between population growth,

technological change in agriculture and environmental impacts.



     2.   Multiplicative perspectives present the view that

population (size, growth, density and distribution) interacts in

multiplicative way with other factors, such as levels of

consumption and technology, to have impacts on the environment. 

One of the most frequently used multiplier approaches, is the

"I=PAT" equation.  Total environmental impacts (I) are seen as a

product of population size (P), the level of affluence or per

capita consumption (A), and the level of technology (T) (Ehrlich

and Holdren, 1971 and 1974; Harrison, 1992; Commoner, 1991 and

1992).  The IPAT equation implies that although population,

consumption or technology might be considered as independent causes

of environmental impact, it is their combined effect which is of

most interest.  The "I=PAT" approach has been criticized on the

basis  that "P", "A" and "T" are, in fact, not independent, as the

equation implies, and that important political and institutional

variables affecting resource use, for example, the distribution of

land, are not accounted for (Shaw, 1993).



     Shaw (1989c) has proposed an alternative multiplicative

conceptual scheme.  In doing so, he distinguished between "ultimate

causes," or the driving forces behind environmental impacts, and

"aggravating factors."  In the case of environmental degradation,

ultimate causes are polluting technologies, high consumption

levels, warfare, land and urban mismanagement policies, socio-

economic institutions, and poverty (Shaw, 1989c; Hogan, 1992a). 

Population, in contrast, is viewed not as a cause but, rather, as

an aggravating factor that multiplies the scale at which the

ultimate causes of environmental degradation (polluting

technologieses etc.) operate.

==================================================================

          Figure I.  Current conceptual perspectives on

              population-environment relationships





                               (A)



     Malthusian: Population <-----> Environment



     Boserupian: Population -----> Technology ------> Environment





                               (B)



     Multiplicative:  E = P x A x T





                               (C)



     Mediating:     Social,

                    Institutional,

                    Cultural factors                              

                         

                         

       Population  --------------- Environment



=================================================================

     3.   Mediating perspectives emphasize that social, cultural

and institutional factors play a mediating role in determining

population-environment relationships.  Social scientists are

inclined to consider the impact of social, cultural and

institutional factors on population-environment relationships, and

much recent research implicitly or explicitly reflects this

viewpoint.  Blaikie and Brookfield (1987) and Bilsborrow (1987,

1992a and 1992b) emphasize the mediating role played by social,

economic and institutional factors, in particular, that of policy

and the state.  The influence of those factors on

population-environment relationships is viewed as multilevel so

that layers of mediating variables at the household, community,

national and international levels must be considered.



     In the context of Latin America, Bilsborrow (1992a and 1992b)

has formulated a framework that specifies the mediating effects of

socio-economic and institutional factors on population-environment

relationships.  Drawing on the work of Malthus, Kingsley Davis

(1963) and Ester Boserup (1965 and 1981), Bilsborrow asserts that

a growing population creates pressures on living standards that

lead to a multiphasic response, which includes expanding the area

under cultivation or reducing fallow time as first resorts. 

Populations, however, may also respond to these pressures by

altering their fertility (postponing marriage, reducing marital

fertility), changing technology (use more fertilizer and

irrigation) or out-migration.  Furthermore, the existence of any

one response makes the others less likely.  However, the nature of

a population's response to resource pressure is determined by

socio-economic and institutional factors, including: (a) rural

poverty; (b) population growth and population growth interacting

with poverty through land fragmentation; (c) Government policies

influencing agricultural technology; (d) economic growth; (e)

internal and external demands for agricultural and wood products;

and (f) infrastructure such as roads.



     McNicoll (1990 and 1992a) focused on social and cultural

rather than policy factors that mediate population and the

environment relations.  In contrast to the direct relationship

between other animals and the environment, he suggested that social

organization and culture filter and focus the relationship between

human populations and their environment (McNicoll, 1992a).  He

proposed that population growth might also alter the social

structure such that new technologies or social forms arose which

might change the relationship between population and the

environment (McNicoll, 1990).  Hogan (1992a) adopted a similar

view, stating that "the damage worked by numbers is always

conditioned by the technology employed and directed by the social

constraints in place" (1992a, p.  114).



     Another perspective within the mediating viewpoint collapses

all social, cultural and institutional factors that mediate

population-environment relationships into the larger concept of

"development".  This view focuses on the way in which development

processes mediate population and the environment relations and

reflects what Jolly (1991) has termed a "dependency perspective"

(Murdock, 1980), which stresses the overwhelming role that

international political and economic forces and the process of

dependent development has played in shaping both demographic and

environmental outcomes in developing countries.  This viewpoint

suggested that environmental degradation and population growth were

interrelated since both derived from poverty resulting from

core-periphery dynamics.  A variation of this perspective (Martine,

1992 and 1993b) suggested that the major global environmental

problems, for example, depletion of ozone, greenhouse effects,

toxic waste accumulation and loss of biodiversity, were the direct

results of the prevailing model of development.  Duplication of

this model in rapidly growing developing countries, as is the

current tendency, is seen as only compounding negative

environmental impacts.



     The conceptual approaches presented above are not necessarily

mutually exclusive.  Indeed, many studies contain elements of more

than one perspective.  In other studies, the conceptual basis is

not explicitly stated and must be inferred.  For this reason, the

following literature review does not attempt to specifically

classify studies in relation to the above-mentioned perspectives. 

However, the classifications considered above may serve as a useful

heuristic device, which the reader can use in evaluating both

studies covered in the present literature review and in general.

=================================================================



     II.  Current research on population and the environment

                     in developing countries



             A.  Carrying capacity and macro models



     As noted above, the concept of carrying capacity as defined by

Higgins and others (1982) presumes that there are critical levels

of population that any given land area can support.  This level or

"carrying capacity" is determined by soil and climatic conditions

and technological inputs (e.g., fertilizer and irrigation).  The

concept of carrying capacity has also formed the basis for numerous

macro-model studies that have aimed to predict limits to population

growth which explains their consideration together within this

section.



     In the 1970s Meadows and others (1972) developed the "WORLD"

macro model to estimate global carrying capacities and limits to

population growth (this global exercise was repeated more recently

by Meadows and others (1992)).  Subsequent to this landmark global

study, Higgins and others (1982) applied a different methodology to

estimate carrying capacity in terms of "potential population

supporting capacities" for 117 developing countries, in particular.



For each country the potential population capable of being

supported was calculated based on the aggregate country-specific

caloric requirements of the population, climatic variability, soil

productivity, rainfall and natural erosion, which depends primarily

on the slope.  Calculations were carried out separately using low-,

intermediate- and high- technology input assumptions.  The three

input levels assumed, respectively: (a) only hand labor, no

fertilizer and pesticides, and the current crop mixture; (b) hand

tool and draught labor, some fertilizer and pesticides, and the

current mixture of crops plus some calorie productive crops; and

(c) fully mechanized labor, optimum fertilizer and pesticide use,

and only the most calorie-productive crops.  Present and projected

irrigated and rainfed land was also taken into account at each

input level.  The results indicate that by the year 2000, the

majority (64) of the countries considered would be unable to meet

their food needs under low-input assumptions which were thought to

be most realistic.



     The concept of carrying capacity also underlies several recent

simulation and modelling exercises that examine

population-environment relationships in developing countries,

including the SOCIOMAD model of the Sahel (Picardi, 1974), the POMA

(poblacion y medio ambiente) interactive model of population and

the environment in urban areas (Arcia and others, 1991; discussed

further below in II.D), the International Institute of Applied

Systems Analysis (IIASA) Systems Model for Mauritius (Lutz, 1991),

and the Enhancement of Carrying Capacity Options (ECCO) model

(Gilbert and Braat, 1991).  An extensive review of these models is

found in Sanderson (1992).  Barlow and others (1992) have also

reviewed the IIASA model, in which demographic parameters are taken

as exogenous.



     At the individual country level, Western (1988) has estimated

the carrying capacity of Palawan island in the Philippines by

ecological zone.  Western pointed out that the estimation of

carrying capacity was difficult because per capita resource

consumption by humans varied since people control to some extent

the natural resources they depended upon.  At the same time, they

may reduce carrying capacities by environmental mismanagement.  The

case-study of Palawan was chosen because it was recently subjected

to rapid population growth due to inmigration from other islands

where plantation operations collapsed and political strife existed.



Current population and land use trends were projected into the

future for six ecological zones (shore, mangroves, lowlands, low

hills, steep hills and mountains) under three different scenarios

(maximum development, maximum conservation and a compromise between

the two).  The results indicated that steep hills and mountain

zones would be subject to the greatest environmental degradation in

the future and that the compromise scenario was best.  Western also

suggested the need to direct settlement away from highland zones

and to seek a balance between conservation and development.



     Carrying capacity estimates have also been prepared for

Eastern Kenya -- Meru, Machakos, Kitui and Kajiado districts --

(Bernard and others, 1989).  Bernard and others recognized that,

although the majority of the Kenyan population is rural, only 17

per cent of the land in Kenya has medium or high agricultural

potential.  Colonial policies exacerbated this situation by

concentrating the limited high potential agricultural land in

large-scale farms and ranches and low potential land in native

reserves.  This has resulted in higher population densities on the

least productive land while other potentially productive areas

remain sparsely populated and underexploited.  Population pressures

on former reserves have resulted in out-migration to the less

fertile arid and semi-arid lands in Eastern Kenya where rapid

population growth (approximately 2.5-3 per cent per annum) has

ensued.  The projections of carrying capacity for Eastern Kenya

accounted for: density patterns; agro-ecological zones; minimum

farm size needed to sustain an average household each year

(calculated by considering food crop yields and calories derived

from food crops); total area; and cultivable area.  Projections

were made under three technology scenarios (current low levels,

intermediate levels drawing on some use of intensive technologies,

and high technology levels involving the extensive use of intensive

technologies and conservation) and three population growth

scenarios (2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 per cent per annum).  Results indicate

that even under the most optimistic combinations of technology and

population growth (high technology and low population growth)

carrying capacities will be surpassed in all districts of Eastern

Kenya by 2020.  The authors concluded that Eastern Kenya's limited

resource base and rapid rate of population growth required

comprehensive rural and regional development planning.



     The National Population Council of Mexico (CONAPO) (1991) has

collected data and carried out a series of regional carrying-

capacity calculations, resulting in estimates for 205 micro-regions

of the country (Garcia de Alba, 1993).  According to those

estimates, over one third (37 per cent) of the country, mainly the

Pacific coastal area, has the capacity to absorb additional

population and further develop agricultural, fishing and livestock

resources.  Another third of the country, mainly parts of the north

and east, is capable of supporting its current population.  A final

third of the country, comprised mainly of arid regions in the north

and center, has a very low capacity for absorbing additional

population.  Garcia de Alba (1993) and CONAPO recommended that this

information be used to select regions for future development and to

orient future migration flows.



     Criticisms of the concept of carrying capacity have pointed

out that it did not adequately account for the potential impact of

technological change, aspirations for higher standards of living,

possibilities for and effects of international trade, and

institutional, social, economic and political constraints on land

use and production (Mahar, 1985; Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; de

Sherbinin, 1993; Leff, 1993; Zaba and Scoones, forthcoming). 

Boserup (1965), in emphasizing the impact of technological change

also offered an implicit criticism of carrying capacity.



     In response to those criticisms, Hogan (1992a and 1993a) has

recently asserted that the concept of carrying capacity continues

to have relevance as a heuristic device and that recent attempts to

calculate carrying capacities had more effectively taken into

account variations in institutional and socio-economic factors. 

Hogan and Burian (1993) have carried out a review of existing

concepts of carrying capacity.  They concluded that the concept

represented an important tool for considering the relationship

between population and sustainable development if it can be

extended to include other basic needs besides food (e.g., access to

water) as well access factors other than the natural distribution

of resources (e.g., social, cultural and political constraints). 

They applied such a wider definition of the concept in considering

the carrying capacity of river resources in the Brazilian state of

Sao Paulo.  They concluded that the carrying capacity of those

river resources was highly dependent on the patterns of

development.





                      B.  Agricultural land



     The relationship between population and land degradation is of

particular importance in developing countries where much of the

population still depends directly on land-based subsistence

production.  Although global estimates of land degradation are

fraught with measurement difficulties, there is mounting evidence

that land degradation is increasing in developing countries (United

Nations, 1989; United Nations, 1991).  These trends have also

coincided with slower growth in food output in Africa and Latin

America, which has become a major concern (United Nations, 1989;

World Bank, 1992).



Africa



     Africa has recently experienced declines in per capita food

production, concurrent with the world's highest population growth

rates and indications that land resources are in many cases

deteriorating.  In this context, several recent studies explore the

degree to which Boserupian intensification (Boserup, 1965) in

agriculture may or may not be occurring in Africa, and, in turn,

what impact intensification has on land degradation.  Because of

the arid nature of many regions in Africa, desertification has also

been a focus of recent study in the region.



     Cleaver and Schreiber (1992) hypothesized that a "population,

agriculture and environmental nexus" existed in Africa whereby

rapid population growth, environmental degradation and poor

agricultural production were causally related.  They undertook a

descriptive analysis of World Bank and FAO production data on

population and agriculture in 38 sub-Saharan African countries

during the 1980s to explore this hypothesis.  They observed that

traditional production systems in Africa had rarely changed in the

face of rapid population growth caused by declining mortality

although some intensification of land use, by more frequent

cropping, had occurred with increased population growth and

increased density.  In the absence of sufficient technological

change, intensification had led "growing poor rural populations to

increasingly degrade and mine the natural resources of the rural

environment to ensure their own day-to-day survival" (p.  viii). 

Concurrently, rapid population growth has accompanied breakdowns in

communal land management controls and a "tragedy of the commons"

(Hardin, 1968) has often ensued.  The authors asserted that those

concurrent adverse population-environmental trends had contributed

to slow agricultural growth.  They concluded that a "population,

agriculture and environment nexus" did, indeed, exist in Africa.



     Lele and Stone (1989) also carried out a study based upon

population census, agricultural production and land-use data

(collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations (FAO) from national agricultural censuses) in six African

countries (Cameroon, and the United Republic of Tanzania, Kenya,

Malawi, Nigeria and Senegal) during the 1970s and 1980s.  The

purpose was to determine the degree to which Boserupian

intensification occurred in response to rapid population growth. 

The authors identified two types of population-induced

intensification processes occurring in Africa.  "Autonomous

intensification", in which population density increases the

frequency of cropping without additional inputs or which involves

the exploitation of increasingly marginal lands, was pervasive in

all the countries considered.  In contrast, "policy-led

intensification" in which the availability of incentives allows

shifts to crops of higher value and yields through the use of

inputs such as fertilizer, occurred only in Cameroon, Kenya and

Malawi where stable policy environments existed.  Lele and Stone

(1989) asserted that limits existed to autonomous intensification

under conditions of continuous population growth existed since it

involved the continual depletion of forestry and soil resources. 

They suggested that addressing the problems of rapid population

growth and environmental stress in Africa required more active

policy intervention by Governments to, among other things, equalize

access to land, support crop research on high-yield variety crops,

and extend access to credit and fertilizer so that greater

"policy-led intensification" could occur.



     Hyden and others, (1993) also undertook descriptive analyses

of data on demographic, agricultural production and economic trends

in five African countries (Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uganda and the

United Republic of Tanzania) to investigate the degree to which

population growth had encouraged Boserupian intensification as well

as shifts to a more diversified economy and higher standards of

living during the 1980s.  Their results, in a sense, provided a

striking contrast to Cleaver and Schreiber (1992).  They observed

that "farmers have managed their lands, even under severe

pressures, in a manner that has permitted sustained use to date"

(Hyden and others, 1993, p.  409) and asserted that "quite high

levels of population density may be accommodated in many parts of

the subcontinent before agriculture involutes or stagnates" (Hyden

and others, 1993, p.  406).  Their findings on economic

diversification associated with increased population density are,

however, not conclusive.  Male labor out-migration, accompanied by

the concurrent intensification of female farm labor was the most

frequent type of diversification observed such that "there is

evidence that the rural populace is working longer hours to feed

itself" (Hyden and others, 1993, p.  407).  They concluded that

population growth had both negative and positive consequences for

agricultural production and suggested the need for further research

on how African farmers were responding to population growth.



     Tiffen and Mortimore (1992) had undertaken a historical

analysis of the relationship between population growth,

agricultural production and land degradation between 1930 and 1990

in the Machakos District of Kenya through the analysis of

district-level population censuses and agricultural, economic and

land survey data.  They observed that the greatest amount of soil

erosion and degradation in the District occurred from 1930 to 1950

when population growth was slowest (2.5 per cent per annum on

average).  During that period, colonial policies established

reserves and prevented land extensification and intensification and

economic diversification among the resident Akamba population. 

Tiffen and Mortimore suggested that this resulted in the overuse

and overgrazing of land and soil erosion.  They observed that

higher population growth (over 3.0 per cent per annum) from the

1950s onward, in contrast, was accompanied by increased

agricultural productivity without widespread soil degradation. 

They suggested that this was accomplished through a combination of:

land extensification after the demise of colonial reserves;

increased land investment (e.g., terracing, water and soil

conservation measures); diversification into non-farm income

sources; adaptation of food, cash and livestock production systems

(e.g., use of high-yield varieties); and societal and institutional

changes that facilitated technological innovation and the

accumulation of capital (e.g., a wider leadership base, community

development).  They concluded that population growth had induced

technological innovation and increased productivity in Machakos, as

described by Boserup (1965).  However, the continuation of this

process will depend on Government policies that induce further

income diversification, infrastructure development and agricultural

pricing measures that encourage land conservation.



     Desertification has been defined as the expansion of

desert-like landscapes into arid and semi-arid environments and

rangelands used for livestock grazing (UNDP 1990).  Due to

successive droughts and famine in the Sudo-Sahelian region during

the past three decades, the issue of desertification in Africa is

frequently discussed in the context of population-environment

relationships.  Arid and semi-arid climates, which encompass a

large part of the African continent, are seen as particularly

vulnerable to drought and desertification (UNDP, 1990).  Population

growth may contribute to desertification by leading to

overcultivation, overgrazing, salinization due to intensive

irrigation over time, and deforestation (United Nations, 1992).



     The Sudan, the largest country in Africa, lies within the

critical Sudano-Sahelian zone deemed most vulnerable to

desertification (UNDP, 1991; Little, forthcoming).  Several recent

descriptive studies have examined population and desertification

trends in the Kordofan, Darfur and White Nile regions of the Sudan

(Ibrahim, 1987; Horowitz and Salem-Murdock, 1987; Bilsborrow and

DeLargy, 1991).  Those studies found that the growth of nomadic

pastoralist and subsistence farmer populations, combined with

increased livestock density, had led to increased fuelwood demands,

deforestation and the extension of agricultural and grazing

activity into forests and semi-arid marginal lands, all associated

with increased desertification.  The studies also noted that the

expansion of irrigated agricultural schemes, which had pushed

subsistence farmers and pastoralists onto marginal lands, and the

increased sedentarization of some pastoralists had also contributed

to desertification.



     In addition to the Sudan, the dry and arid rangelands of Kenya

have also been the focus of research on desertification.  Talbot

(1989) had undertaken a historical analysis of population census

and government report data on land-use trends in the rangelands of

the Maasai from the 1880s to the 1980s.  He inferred that the

growth of the resident Maasai pastoral populations had led to

increased livestock grazing on rangelands, while growth among the

adjacent sedentary agricultural populations had led to agricultural

extensification in the same areas.  Talbot associated those

competing trends with increased rangeland degradation and

desertification.  He also suggested that national and international

development assistance programmes in the region, for example,

Tsetse fly eradication, had increased overgrazing on rangelands by

increasing livestock populations, thus, further contributing to

desertification.  He concluded  that continued population growth

among Maasai and farming populations had been the primary cause of

environmental degradation and of the increased frequency of famines

in the region.



     Fratkin (1991) and Little (1987) (see also Little,

forthcoming) had undertaken descriptive anthropological studies of

the relationship between pastoral and agricultural populations and

land degradation during the 1980s in two semi-arid district of

Kenya, Marsabit and Baringo.  In Marsabit, Fratkin (1991) observed

that colonial policies, current political insecurity, and poverty

had restricted seasonal migration by pastoralists in the district

leading to their increased sedentarization and greater

concentrations of population in agriculturally settled areas.  He

related those trends to subsequent overgrazing and desertification

and suggested that population growth among the pastoral and already

sedentary agricultural population in the District had exacerbated

those processes.  In Baringo, Little (1987) concluded that

pastoralists had lost large amounts of their herd lands due to the

increased absorption of their land by the growing settled

agricultural population in the District.  This had led to

overgrazing by pastoralists on their diminishing lands as well as

conflicts between pastoralists and settled cultivators over land. 

In addition, absentee herd-owning has arisen in Baringo and has

been associated with less adequate resource management and

overgrazing.  As in Marsabit, Little also observed that the

increased sedentarization of pastoralists had also occurred in

Baringo and was associated with the overuse of certain pastures and

agricultural land and ultimately to additional dryland degradation.



Asia



     China is frequently singled out as the primary example where

population growth has stimulated continual intensification of

agriculture.  There has, however, been virtually no study of the

relationship between population growth, density, agricultural

intensification and land degradation in China (Geores and

Bilsborrow, 1991).  Ecological studies have identified the

occurrence of considerable deforestation, desertification,

salinization and chemical pollution but do not consider the effects

of demographic factors (Forestier, 1989).  However, other studies

have implied that sustainable intensification of agriculture in

densely populated areas of China has occurred without the extensive

use of chemical pesticides or fertilizers (Wu and others, 1987). 

Rather, this has been accomplished through more diverse

exploitation of ecosystems, for example, the use of fishponds,

which have high value yields per unit of land.



     In contrast to the limited amount of research on China

currently available in English, there have been several recent

studies on population, agricultural change and land degradation in

India.  Environmental conservation in India has historically

occurred through the institutionalization of common property

resources (CPRs) involving forests, pastures and water and waste

disposal areas.  Women and children in poor households in India are

particularly involved in the use of CPRs, where they collect

firewood and tend livestock.  Based on a study of village and

household-level survey data from seven states in India, Jodha

(1985, 1987 and 1989) examined changes in CPRs in relation to

demographic, economic and social trends.  He concluded that changes

in land reform, market relations and increased population growth

have all led to adverse changes, including the decrease in

available CPRs and declines in communal resource management.  This,

in turn, has precipitated land degradation in CPRs.



     In Southern Asia and India, links between women, agricultural

change and land degradation in CPRs have been singled out for

particular attention.  Agarwal (1988) undertook a descriptive

review of the status of women within poor rural households in India

and inferred that agricultural stagnation, rapid resource

degradation and the differential impact of agricultural development

policies on women were linked.  She noted that development policies

had generally not benefitted poor women in households that depended

extensively on CPRs.  Privatization encouraged by the Government as

an agricultural development policy has also decreased the size of

available CPRs.  This has increased demands on the remaining CPRs,

with negative impacts on the workloads of women and the health and

nutrition of households.  Agarwal (forthcoming) has also undertaken

a general descriptive review of the gender-specific impacts of land

degradation on women in India.  On this basis, she criticized the

eco-feminist viewpoint that identified generalized links between

the domination of women and nature by men.  She suggested the

alternative perspective of "feminist environmentalism" which has

accounted for the particular circumstances leading to linked

differential gender impacts and negative environmental changes in

any given context.



     Geores and Bilsborrow (1991), among others, have noted that in

parts of Southern Asia, such as Bangladesh, much of the

agricultural population resides on flood plains subject to periodic

submergence.  This leads to abrupt changes in population

distribution.  Although flooding is necessary for the maintenance

of soil fertility, it also means that agricultural land may appear

or disappear abruptly, causing changes in landownership,

subsistence production and population distribution.  Loss of land

through flooding also sometimes leads to the growth and

concentration of population in large squatter settlements on river

banks or shifts into agricultural wage labor.  Once land reappears,

migration back onto the land also occurs quickly, often too rapidly

for the land to stabilize.  After flooding, the size of

landholdings are frequently decreased by permanent erosion.  Thus,

it has been inferred that agricultural growth in Bangladesh lags

behind population growth largely due to the instability caused by

this seasonal flooding (Myers, 1989a).  Several studies have

attributed increased flooding in Bangladesh to deforestation in the

Himalayan highlands of Nepal and northern India, although the

evidence is not conclusive (e.g., Ives, 1988).



     The relationship between resource degradation and scarcity,

population growth and migration, and violent conflict has also been

considered in Bangladesh.  Hazarike (1993) and Homer Dixon and

others, (1993) have undertaken descriptive studies of migration

trends between Bangladesh and two states in India (Assam and

Tripura), documented by census data from the 1980s.  They concluded

that seasonal flooding combined with rapid population growth in

Bangladesh had led to persistent out-migration to Assam and

Tripura.  This, in turn, had led to land degradation and land and

water scarcity, and ultimately to violent ethnic conflicts in those

two Indian states.  Homer Dixon and others, (1993) concluded that

in southern Asia (as well as in parts of Africa and Latin America),

population growth and migration might lead directly to water or

land scarcity through increased demands and/or indirectly through

degradation and overuse.  Unequal access to resources due to

political and economic factors might enhance this scarcity.  They

suggested that resource scarcity induced by this chain of events

was directly associated with increased violent conflict in India as

well as other developing countries.



     Thiesenhusen (1991) reviewed land tenure patterns in

Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and emphasized the role played by

land tenure in affecting relationships between population and

resources.  He concluded that land tenure played the least

important role in Bangladesh.  He observed a pattern where

labor-absorbing mechanisms of farming and the existing land tenure

system were swamped by population growth, leading to environmental

degradation through overuse of land and extension onto marginal

lands.  As Theisenhusen observed, "the need for income pushes the

growing population to overwhelm legal, technical and institutional

mechanisms that ordinarily would keep farming in situ" and that

there was, thus, a race between "the stork and the plough" (p.  4).



In Sri Lanka and Nepal, Thiesenhusen (1991) concluded that

increased population, in the face of a lack of economic growth, had

led to exaggerated adjustments in land tenure.  A labor-retentive

land tenure structure had developed whereby low labor productivity

accommodates a larger rural population and depresses out-migration

as well as economic and urban growth.  Increasing land

fragmentation and co-ownership had arisen also.  He suggested that

those trends had resulted in the overuse of agricultural lands, the

increased use of marginal lands and, therefore, land degradation in

both contexts.



     The concept of "environmental refugees" or environmentally-

induced out-migration (due to land degradation, drought and

deforestation) has recently been considered in developing countries

in Asia as well as Africa (El-Hinnawi, 1985; Jacobsen 1988). 

Kavanagh and Lonergan (1992) have reviewed the existing literature

on environmentally-induced outmigration in developing countries,

focusing on South-east Asia.  They observed that, at present,

discussion of the environment as a cause of population displacement

was speculative and had been based on anecdotal data.  They further

observed that the determinants of outmigration were multicausal and

that it was difficult to distinguish between impoverishment,

environmental degradation and insecurity as causes of population

displacement.  They concluded with the recommendation that the

impact of environmental degradation on population movement must be

considered within a framework that would also address

impoverishment and security issues.



     Suhrke (1993) has also reviewed the existing literature on

environmentally-induced outmigration in Asia and other developing

countries.  Suhrke identified (a) a "minimalist" view which

emphasized multi-causality and had seen environmental change as a

contextual variable which, among other factors (political, economic

etc.), contributed to out-migration (Kritz, 1990; NAS, 1991;

Bilsborrow, 1992b); and (b) a "maximalist" view, which argued that

environmental degradation had already displaced and would continue

to displace population in developing countries (Jacobsen, 1988; El-

Hinnawi, 1985).  Suhrke (1993) also undertook the specific

descriptive review of the relationships between environmental

degradation and out-migration in north-east Thailand and India as

well as the Sahel and Guatemala.  Based on those examples, she

suggested a third view in which patterns of development and

population pressure, or "demography and political economy" (p.  7),

were seen as the ultimate causes of environmental degradation and,

thus, environmentally-induced out-migration.  She concluded that it

might be most useful to consider environmental degradation as one

in a complex chain of factors that lead to out-migration.  Building

on this suggestion, Richmond (1993a and 1993b) has elaborated a

continuum framework for conceptualizing migration determinants that

ranges from reactive out-migration, stimulated by external

environmental or structural change, to proactive migration, driven

more by individual choice.





Latin America and the Caribbean



     Several relevant studies on population and land use have been

undertaken in Latin America and the Caribbean.  A literature review

on population and land use in the region has been recently carried

out (Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992).  The discussion below

recapitulates the major findings of that review and discusses more

recent research not previously covered.



     In their literature review, Bilsborrow and Geores (1992) noted

that in Latin America research had generally not distinguished the

effects of population growth and density from those of other

factors leading to deterioration in land quality in the region. 

They did, however, identify several studies that had suggested

links between population pressure and decreasing soil fertility

(e.g., Leonard, 1987 SEDUE, 1986).  They observed that many of the

instances of association between land degradation and high

population density referred to Central American and Andean

highlands where steep slopes were common, or to frontier regions of

tropical rainforests where in-migration had led to deforestation

and soil erosion.  Overall, however, they concluded that despite an

increase in the literature on population and environmental

relationships in Latin America, little of it had shown a direct

cause-effect relationship between population growth/density and

environmental deterioration.



     Stupp and Bilsborrow (1989) (see also Bilsborrow and DeLargy,

1991; Bilsborrow and Stupp, forthcoming) have used longitudinal

census data on population growth and distribution, agricultural

production and land use in Guatemala to retrospectively study the

impact of population growth on food security, rural employment,

land fragmentation, and migration since 1950.  These results were

considered alongside trends in land degradation and deforestation. 

They concluded that if current rates of population growth continue,

food security would decrease, while land fragmentation, rural

unemployment, rural-urban and rural-rural migration would continue

to increase.  Concurrently, they noted that deforestation, land

degradation and watershed destruction had increased in recent

decades.  They inferred that population growth and migration had

played an important role in causing those environmental trends by

increasing land fragmentation, forest-clearing and overuse of soils

on marginal lands, and an indirect role by increasing pressures for

higher agricultural production through the growth of urban demand.



     Collins (1987) had analysed the relationship between

migration, labor availability and destructive land-management

strategies based on a review of labor migration and population

trends in Latin America during the 1970s and 1980s and a case-study

of the Peruvian Andes and Jamaica during the same period.  She

suggested that in the Peruvian Andes land scarcity due to

population growth and inequalities in land distribution might

induce rural out-migration which, in turn, would lead to less

available labor in rural areas.  As a result, labor scarcity and

out-migration might simultaneously exist in those rural areas. 

Out-migration and labor scarcity, furthermore, might lead to worse

resource management, for example, failure to maintain terraces and

ultimately to land degradation.



     Stonich (1989) undertook a descriptive analysis of

agricultural census, household survey and ethnographic data in

three coastal and six highland villages in rural Honduras between

1981 and 1987 to identify linkages between agricultural

development, demographic change and environmental deterioration. 

She concluded that in Southern Honduras "environmental degradation

is intricately connected to problems of land tenure, unemployment,

demography and poverty" (p.  289).  Economic forces and Government

policies stimulated the rapid expansion of commercial agriculture

for export in the region, including cattle, coffee, cotton and

sugar, while production of basic grains decreased.  In turn, the

expansion of commercial agriculture combined with rapid population

growth had exacerbated the concentration of landholding, the

increased use of marginal land and deforestation on hillsides by

small farmers.  She related those practices to increased land

degradation.



     Provencio and Carabias (1993) analysed census migration data

for Mexico and studies documenting land degradation in four rural

ecological zones (subhumid tropic, arid and semi-arid, temperate

and wet tropics) for the period 1970-1990.  They inferred that out-

migration from those rural areas had limited the negative impact of

population growth on land resources and deforestation.  However,

degradation had continued despite out-migration due to the growth

of commercial activities in agriculture and forestry.  They also

noted that in temperate rural zones most degradation had occurred

on less-populated private lands.  They concluded that the

population capable of being sustained in different ecological zones

varied according to the form of resource management used,

technological factors and the standard of living.



     Thiesenhusen (1991) evaluated the relationship between land

tenure, land-use change and population through a descriptive review

of land tenure patterns in Latin America over the past three

decades.  He suggested that a pattern existed whereby highly

inequitable distribution of land causes labor out-migration,

leading to environmental degradation through greater concentration

of the majority of the rural population on small parcels, the

misuse of large portions of the best land by large landowners, and

insecurity in land tenure, which provided little incentive for

conservation.





                           C.  Forests



     The developing regions contain almost all of the world's

tropical moist forests and significant amounts of other forests. 

According to the 1990 Forest Resources Assessment carried out by

the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,

deforestation rates for the period 1981-1991 were highest in Asia

and the Pacific (1.2 per cent per annum) followed by Latin America

(0.8 per cent per annum), and Africa (0.7 per cent per annum)

although the magnitude of loss was by far highest in Latin America

(FAO, 1993).  Several cross-country statistical analyses (Allan and

Barnes, 1985; Rudel, 1989; Southgate, 1991) involving a large

number of developing countries (generally more than 30) as well as

some national studies (e.g., Panayoutou and Sungsuwan, 1989) found

significant statistical relationships between population growth and

deforestation.  Recent research by social scientists, however, had

explored the processes linking population and deforestation and

found that the relationship between population and deforestation

varied according to context.  A sample of the latter studies are

considered below.



Africa



     Africa has the highest rates of population growth among

developing regions and the greatest reliance on fuelwood as an

energy source.  Because of this, research on deforestation in

Africa has focused on the relationship between population and

fuelwood use.  In general, there has been less research on

deforestation in Africa than in Latin America and Asia.



     The view that population growth leads to deforestation through

both increased fuelwood use and agricultural expansion is reflected

in some recent descriptive studies on Africa during the 1980s that

draw on agricultural and population census data and satellite

images (Barnes, 1990; Cleaver and Schreiber, 1992; Anderson, 1984

and 1986).  Those studies suggested that both urban and rural

population growth and resulting increases in fuelwood demand had

led to increased deforestation.  The ripple-like spread of

deforestation in concentric rings around urban areas in Africa has

been cited as evidence of the impact of urban demand (Anderson,

1984 and 1986).  Additional analysis by Cline-Cole and others

(1990) and Mortimore (forthcoming) based upon data on tree stocks

in the Kano region of Nigeria, however, suggested that linkages

between urban growth and the conversion of lands and forests around

cities were more complex than inferences from ripple-pattern

observations implied.  In Kano, high density areas closest to the

city had high and increasing tree densities while areas further out

reflected the most rapid rates of tree removal.  Also, tree volume

in farmland areas in Kano exceeded that of shrubland and forest

reserves (Mortimore, forthcoming).



     Cline Cole and others (1990) have also undertaken a

descriptive analysis of urban household survey data collected

between 1981 and 1983 in Cameroon, Kenya, Niger and Nigeria to

study the relationship between urban household characteristics and

fuelwood consumption.  Their results suggested that the effects of

urban population growth on fuelwood consumption and ultimately

deforestation were complex.  The authors found that urban household

size and composition and lifecycle stage, all shaped demands for

fuelwood.  Their result indicated that larger households in urban

areas reflected lower and more efficient per capita fuelwood use

than smaller households.  They inferred that urban growth

characterized by the formation of large households was, therefore,

associated with reduced and more efficient per capita fuelwood use

while the reverse was true for urban growth when characterized by

smaller households.



     Whitney (1987) has analysed the impact of both overall

population growth and urban and rural growth on fuelwood demands

and deforestation in the Sudan between 1960 and 1980, using data

from a national energy assessment and UNDP and World Bank data on

energy consumption.  Whitney observed that it had been economically

more rational for the Sudan to mine its forest resources than to

spend its limited hard currency importing fossil fuels.  He cited

deforestation as most severe in the Central Region.  According to

his analysis, the amount of deforestation due to household fuelwood

consumption increased over three times (from 7,500 km2 per annum to

28,000 km2 per annum) between 1960 and 1980 due primarily to

population growth.  The increased use of wood for charcoal by the

growing rural population was a major factor driving deforestation

since per capita use of wood for charcoal increased alongside

population growth in rural areas.  In contrast, in growing urban

areas per capita charcoal use actually declined during the period

since some urban dwellers converted to fossil fuels.  Whitney

concluded that in the future, use of charcoal and fuelwood in rural

areas would be the primary causes of deforestation in the Sudan. 

In the absence of large-scale conversion to fossil fuels, he

recommended improving charcoal wood-burning stoves, development of

more efficient charcoal, increasing the use of kerosene, and

reducing the demand for fuelwood through pricing policies.



     A qualitative longitudinal study by Agbo and others (1993) of

a village in northern Benin suggested that institutional

constraints, including those imposed by protected areas, must be

considered in relation to deforestation in Africa.  The total land

area of the village, comprised mainly of fragile soils, was

confined by the creation of a national park.  Agbo and others found

that under such conditions continued population growth through

natural increase led to incursions into forest areas for

agricultural land, fuelwood and timber for home construction.  This

in turn resulted in increased deforestation, erosion, crop-damaging

floods and falls in crop yields.  The authors associated these

trends with periodic famines and related high infant mortality and

fertility.  Agbo and others concluded that deforestation could be

traced to population pressures which, in turn, were related to

decreased availability of land and forest resources due to the

creation of the national park.



     In contrast to the above studies that focus on the impact of

population on land resources, Feldman (1990) presented an as yet

empirically untested econometric household utility function for

estimating the impact of deforestation on population and fertility

in Africa.  Feldman (1990) suggested that Africa was characterized

by chronic labor shortages due largely to the use of labor

intensive, low technology agriculture.  Feldman observed that, as

a result, children in Africa were an important source of household

labor.  He proposed that deforestation could further increase this

labor demand for children and ultimately fertility.  With greater

deforestation, children must spend more time collecting the same

amount of firewood.  Therefore, more children were needed to meet

fuelwood needs.  Feldman concluded that fertility reduction in

Africa would require, not only family planning programmes, but also

technological and ecological interventions that increased labor and

land productivity and reduce the continual need for additional

labor.



Asia



     The islands comprising Indonesia contain the third largest

portion of rainforest in the world, after Brazil and Zaire.  After

Brazil, Indonesia currently has the largest absolute annual loss of

rainforests, with an annual deforestation rate of 0.8 per cent per

annum (FAO, 1992c).  In a descriptive analysis of recent trends in

Indonesia, Bilsborrow (1992c) (see also World Bank, 1988) suggested

that long-term population growth in Java and transmigration

programmes to the so-called Outer Islands had played an important

role in this loss in recent decades.  Bilsborrow suggested that

population growth in Java had resulted in continuing land

fragmentation, intensified land use, soil degradation and

landlessness.  Since colonial times this population pressure has

been addressed by "transmigration" programmes which have resettled

population on the Outer Islands.  Here, rapid rates of

deforestation have ensued as settlers clear land to establish new

plots.  Transmigration has also indirectly stimulated flows of

spontaneous settlers to the Outer Islands, whose numbers are equal

to or greater than those of the Government-sponsored and monitored

transmigrants.  Bilsborrow suggested that those spontaneous

settlers undertook greater clearing than sponsored transmigrants

and could thus be the most important agents of deforestation.  The

fragility of soils in the forest regions further enhanced the need

for additional clearing by migrants.  Uncertainty regarding land

titling could also lead to less incentives for conservation

measures and ultimately the need to clear more land.  Bilsborrow

concluded that, ironically, the impact of transmigration on

relieving population pressures in Java had been limited since

transmigrants had been generally selected from the poor and already

landless segment of the population.



     Agricultural and population census and macroeconomic data from

the Philippines during the 1980s have been used in descriptive

studies to consider the relationship between internal migration and

deforestation in the Philippines by Cruz and Cruz (1990), Cruz

(1991 and 1993) and as part of a comparative study with Costa Rica

by Cruz and others (1992).  As in Costa Rica, Cruz and others

(1992) concluded that a downturn in global economic trends

transformed internal migration from rural-urban flows to mainly

rural-rural flows towards forest regions.  Once in forest lands,

the marginal nature of cleared land combined with insecure tenure

created little incentive for conservation, which had led to rapid

land degradation and clearing.  In addition, commercial logging in

the forest uplands had also increased forest losses, both directly

and indirectly by creating access roads that facilitated

in-migration and settlement.  The above studies on the Philippines

concluded that in-migration to forest areas by small farmers in

search of cultivable land had been a major determinant of

deforestation in the country and that long-term population growth

in the Philippines had enhanced the scale on which this process

occurred.



     Panayoutou and Sungsuwan (1989) (see also Panayoutou and

Parasuk, 1990 and Panayoutou, 1992) have developed and applied an

econometric function for defining forest cover and deforestation

between 1960 and 1988 for northern Thailand.  Demand factors due to

logging, fuelwood, agriculture and infrastructure (e.g., road and

irrigation) development are estimated through individual demand

functions that took into account population growth and density. 

For example, fuelwood demand is estimated as a function of fuelwood

collection costs, population growth and density, forest

accessibility and the opportunity cost of labor.  The overall

deforestation function accounts for all these estimated demand

factors, their interaction and wood prices.  Using demographic,

agricultural and land-use data for the 16 provinces that comprise

northern Thailand, Panayoutou and Sungsuwan applied regression

analysis to estimate the overall deforestation function (and its

constituent demand functions) for the period.  Their findings

indicated that population growth and density were the single most

important factors contributing to deforestation in north-east

Thailand.  Population growth and density were found to have this

significant impact mainly by leading to greater demands for

agricultural land.



     The relationship between deforestation and population growth

in highland areas of Nepal has received some attention since the

1970s.  Population growth has been high in the highland regions due

to rapidly declining mortality and continued high fertility between

1951 and 1985.  The population doubled during the past three

decades from 8.3 to 16.7 million and is expected to double again to

30 million by 2005 (Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987).  The Nepalese

economy is primarily agricultural, so the majority of this

increased population will be dependent on agriculture.  A theory of

Himalayan environmental degradation emerges from the descriptive

literature on deforestation in Nepal that links rapidly increasing

population among hill farmers after 1950 to increased demands for

agricultural land and fuelwood and, therefore, to increased

deforestation (Eckholm, 1975; Bandyopadhyay and others, 1985;

Singh, 1985; Joshi, 1986).  Deforestation, in turn, is seen as

exacerbating soil degradation, landslides and flooding, increasing

river sedimentation in other lowland areas (India and Bangladesh),

possibly stimulating climate change and increasing poverty (Ives,

1987).



     However, additional descriptive, historical and quantitative

research in the late 1980s challenges the existence of any simple

causal relationship between population growth and deforestation in

Nepal (Mahat and others, 1986-1987; Ives, 1988; Blaikie and

Brookfield, 1987).  These studies suggested that large-scale 

deforestation began prior to rapid population growth, primarily as

a result of Government policies that encouraged wide-scale

commercial exploitation of forest resources.  Moreover, those

studies concluded that the nature of forest resources varied

throughout the region and that current processes leading to

deforestation had diverse rather than uniform origins.



     Kanaskar Thapa (1992) made an analysis of household level data

from 300 households in one hill village of Nepal to explore how

socio-economic and cultural factors could affect responses to rapid

population growth and environmental degradation.  She used

regression analysis to estimate the impact of socio-economic

status, family size, education and caste (Brahmin/Chetri versus

artisan) on out-migration, contraceptive use, chemical fertilizer

use and fuelwood consumption.  The results indicated that artisan

caste and larger household size was associated with more

out-migration.  Higher socio-economic status was associated with

increased use of fertilizer (agricultural intensification) and

contraceptive use.  Middle-income households had the highest demand

for fuelwood and, by implication, more deforestation.  A negative

relationship between family size and per capita fuelwood

consumption was found, although overall demand and thus

deforestation increased with family size.  Kanaskar Thapa (1992)

concluded that socio-economic status and caste affiliation could

have significant impacts on the relationship between population

pressure and deforestation.



     Kumar and Hotchkiss (1988) carried out a regression analysis

of household survey data from 120 households in Nepal during

1982-1983 to test the hypotheses that deforestation reduced

agricultural output, household income from agriculture, and

nutrition by increasing the time women must spend collecting forest

products, including fuelwood.  Deforestation was measured in terms

of fuelwood collection time, with greater times associated with

higher levels of deforestation.  The authors used regression

analysis to estimate the impact of female time allocation,

agricultural production and nutrition on deforestation/fuelwood

collection time.  The results indicated that increased

deforestation/fuelwood collection time was significantly associated

with decreased farm labor by women and decreased time spent in food

preparation.  Kumar and Hotchkiss concluded that deforestation had

negative effects on agricultural production and income as well as

household nutrition.



     Through a descriptive review of historical trends in forest

resources in India, Agarwal (forthcoming) suggested that commercial

exploitation of forests areas since colonial times and the

concomitant increased privatization of communal forest have been

primary factors driving deforestation.  Reduced community resource

management, loss of local knowledge for land management and the use

of less sustainable technologies have accompanied this

privatization and further contributed to deforestation.  She

suggested that population growth had also had an impact by

increasing demands on those limited forests areas or common

property resources that remained available for communal use. 

Agarwal further suggested that the decline of community resource

management has exacerbated the effects of population growth.  She

concluded that deforestation had a greater negative impact on

women's lives in India since they had been the primary gatherers of

fuelwood and other forest products for household consumption.





Latin America and the Caribbean



     Central and South America contain the largest proportion of

closed tropical forests in the world, and the bulk of current

research in English on linkages between population and

deforestation focuses on this region.  Although population growth

rates began to slow in Latin America during recent years, the

spatial concentration of population in many rural areas continues

due to historical inequalities in access to land.  In lieu of

addressing this inequality, countries with significant tropical

forest areas (e.g., Brazil, Ecuador, Guatemala and Peru) have

actively encouraged migration into forest regions.  As a result,

several recent studies on deforestation and population in Latin

America focus on the migration dimension of population in relation

to deforestation in tropical lowland areas.



     Brazil contains the largest portion (one third) of the world's

tropical forests and experiences the largest absolute conversion of

forest land (Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992).  Successive Governments

since the 1960s have encouraged the colonization and development of

forest regions by explicit colonization schemes and fiscal and

road-building policies.  A longitudinal study of the northern

Brazilian Amazon frontier has been carried out since the 1970s

through the analysis of census migration data and economic,

institutional and agricultural data collected through successive

household surveys and anthropological field work (Schmink, 1988 and

forthcoming; Schmink and Wood, 1987 and 1993; Wood and Schmink,

1993; and Wood, 1993a).  Their findings suggested that poverty and

the concentration of landholding outside the Amazon drove

in-migration by small farmers to the region.  They also suggested

that land titling polices that linked clearing to land titles

encouraged migrants to clear forest as soon as possible.  To date,

however, large ranchers, receiving incentives, have carried out the

largest amount of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (Wood,

1993a).  Wood and Schmink concluded that competition for power and

violent conflict between ranchers and small farmers further

enhanced clearing by both groups as a means of expanding their land

claims and relative power (Wood and Schmink, 1993).



     Martine (1988) has also used census migration data from the

Brazilian Amazon frontier to analyse the growth of towns in the

region during the 1980s and the implications this has had for

deforestation.  Martine observed that the concentration of land

apparent in the rest of Brazil had been replicated on the frontier,

with settlers to the region experiencing increased landlessness

similar to their counterparts outside the region, while Government

incentives led large-scale farmers and commercial interest to

continually absorb the land of "failed" settlers.  Martine asserted

that those "failed" settlers congregated in frontier towns and, as

a result, medium- and large-size towns accounted for the majority

of Amazonian population growth during the 1980s (Martine, 1988). 

As a result, an increasing proportion of migrants to frontier areas

did not end up on the land and frontier growth has been an

increasingly urban phenomenon in Brazil (Martine, 1988; see also

Browder, 1989).  Therefore, he concluded that the role played by

in- migration relative to deforestation could be quite complex.



     Sydenstricker and Vosti (1993) undertook descriptive and

multivariate regression analysis of data from 200 households

collected during a malaria survey (see Sawyer, 1992) in the

Macadinho region of the Brazilian Amazon between 1985 and 1987 to

explore the impact of household composition on deforestation.  They

found that the number of males in households was significantly

related to higher rates of deforestation.  Moreover, they found

that most deforestation took place during the "implantation" or

initial phase of settlement when colonists adapted to their new

environment and when households were comprised mainly of males

(fathers and sons).  This occurred since forest-clearing was

crucial to establishing the right of tenure.  They also found,

however, that clearing of additional areas was required each year

due to low soil fertility.



     Pichon and Bilsborrow (forthcoming) and Pichon and others,

(1993) have also undertaken multivariate regression analysis of

data collected from a sample of 419 migrant settler households in

the northern Ecuadorian Amazon during 1990, in which they estimated

the relationships between household characteristics and the

proportion of forest area maintained.  They found that larger

household size, better soil quality, longer duration of residence,

better access to towns and roads, and smaller total farm area were

significantly related to lower proportions of plots remaining in

forest.  They proposed that there was no uniform pattern whereby

deforestation necessarily increased over time for households. 

Rather, households made land-use decisions in response to a variety

of factors, including natural resource endowments and Government

policies.  Tabulations also showed that there had been high

retention of household members, including children, leading to

second-generation household formation and additional clearing of

forest for plots.  They concluded that this, in combination with

high fertility among settler households, portends continued, if not

increased, deforestation in the region.



     Rudel (1993) also collected and analysed household survey data

collected from 63 households in the southern Amazon region of

Ecuador, in 1986.  Using multiple regression, he estimated the

impact of ethnicity (colonist versus indigenous Shuar), household

size, credit availability, and size of landholding on percentage of

total land cleared by households.  His results indicate that larger

household size, smaller farm area, and better availability of

credit were significantly associated with more deforestation.  He

also found that colonist households cleared significantly more land

than indigenous (Shuar) households.  Other descriptive analysis

suggested that in-migrants to the southern Ecuadorian Amazon come

from better-off peasant families pulled by forest opportunities

rather than from poor households pushed by marginalization.  He

concluded that in-migration did not seem to be tied to inequalities

and "immiseration" outside the region though this finding was based

on a small sample.



     Rudel (1993) also undertook a historical review of

institutional factors that had affected patterns of deforestation

in the southern Ecuadorian Amazon.  Based on this review, he

proposed that causes of deforestation could vary according to

forest type and size and settlement pattern.  In large continuous

forest areas where commercial logging or ranching interests

predominated, their activity was the most important determinant of

deforestation, although peasant settlers could take advantage of

penetration roads.  Such a sequence was seen also in the

Philippines and Thailand (see Cruz and others, 1992 and Panayotou,

1991, respectively).  In large continuous forests where coalitions

of interests (e.g., small farmers, large landowners) predominated

and competed for credit, agricultural inputs and access to roads,

those investments and infrastructure opportunities were the most

important determinants of deforestation and in-migration again

played a secondary role.  In smaller separated forests where

settlements by small farmers predominated, in-migration had been

the most important determinant of deforestation since it promoted

a continual "nibbling" away at forest borders.  Rudel suggested

that those patterns were not discrete but could represent different

stages in forest development, with a general movement over time

from large continuous to smaller separated forests in which settler

in-migration becomes the main determinant of deforestation.  Rudel

concluded that relationships between population and deforestation

could, thus, depend on forest size and type and settlement

patterns.



     The study of deforestation in non-Amazon forest areas of Latin

America, where colonization has rarely been promoted, presents a

different picture of the relationship between population and

deforestation.  Descriptive studies of agricultural and population

census data and historical land-use trends in forest areas of

southern Honduras by DeWalt and Stonich (1992) and DeWalt and

others, (1993, forthcoming) suggested that the expansion of

commercial agriculture (cotton, cattle, melon and shrimp farming)

and increasing land concentration had been the primary factors

responsible for deforestation and other forms of ecological

destruction (pesticide contamination, mangrove swamp elimination

and soil degradation) in recent decades.  The expansion of

commercial agriculture in southern Honduras limited the land

available to small farmers, leading them to clear forest areas in

order to exploit marginal lands on steeper slopes, to intensify the

use of existing land without adequate inputs (fertilizer), or to

out-migrate to cities or other rural areas.  They also identified

a synergistic relationship whereby large landowners temporarily

rented lands to small farmers as a means of clearing land for

pasture, thus enhancing deforestation.  Population growth was seen

as making only a minor contribution to higher rates of clearing in

forest areas in southern Honduras.



     Harrison (1990) undertook a quantitative analysis of

population and agricultural census data for all current cantons

(84) of Costa Rica between 1950 and 1983 to test for a relationship

between rural density and deforestation.  To this end, she carried

out correlation analyses between population density and

deforestation over the period.  Her results indicated that there

was no correspondence between increases in density and

deforestation.  Rather, increases in density tended to occur in

those areas which had already been cleared.  Through further

correlation analysis, she found that, in fact, the largest amounts

of deforestation were associated with clearing of land for large

commercial farms, which supported relatively few people.  Harrison

concluded that in Costa Rica, laws and policies that encouraged the

expansion of pasture by middle-class entrepreneurs and foreign

corporations had been the most important determinants of

deforestation rather than population pressure per se.



     Cruz and others, (1992) has also used agricultural and

population census data and macroeconomic data in Costa Rica during

the 1980s to examine the interrelationships between population

growth, migration, economic trends and deforestation.  They

concluded that increased poverty and rural unemployment in

non-forest areas, exacerbated by the country's debt crisis, had

transformed internal migration from mainly rural-urban flows to

rural-rural flows into forest regions.  However, like Harrison

(1990), they found little correspondence between increased density

and deforestation.  Increases in rural population density and

in-migration were found to be highest in areas where there was

already the least forest cover.





                         D.  Urban areas



     Urbanization is a dominant demographic trend in the developing

countries.  By the year 2000, nearly 45 per cent of the total

population in developing countries will be living in urban areas

(United Nations, 1992).  In urban areas reciprocal impacts between

population and the environment are clearly evident.  Growing urban

populations directly transform the environment, for example,

increased water pollution given the generally inadequate disposal

of waste.  Water pollution, in turn, has a direct impact on the

health of the urban populations.



     Latin America is by far the most urbanized region of the

developing world and a number of recent studies addressing

population-environment relations in urban areas consider this

region.  Roberts (forthcoming) has undertaken an extensive review

of studies that could shed light on the relationship between

population and the environment in Latin American cities.  Referring

to Mexico City and the major Brazilian cities as examples, he

observed that in contrast to the historical Western experience,

economic development had not necessarily accompanied urbanization. 

As a result, high rates of population growth and urbanization had

produced greater negative environmental impacts due to inadequate

infrastructure, for example, lack of sanitation facilities and

pollution controls.  Roberts also suggested that patterns of

development which neglected rural areas had played a role in the

unprecedented and rapid spatial concentration of population in

megacities, with resulting negative environmental outcomes.  He

concluded that understanding environmental problems in urban areas

of Latin America required the consideration of social and economic

factors that had determined patterns of urbanization as well as

urban population size.



     Several recent descriptive studies covering cities in Asia,

Africa and Latin America have stressed the health impact of

negative environmental conditions in urban areas (Hardoy and

Satherwaite, 1985 and 1989; International Labor Office, 1992;

Hamza, 1992; Benneh, 1992).  These studies suggested that

inadequate or polluted water supplies, lack of sanitation services

and pollution due to toxic chemicals were important environmental

factors affecting the health of urban populations.  The health

impacts of those environmental factors in urban areas had been

considered at several levels: home, workplace, neighborhood; and

wider city environment (Hardoy and Satherwaite, 1989).  The World

Bank (1992) is at present carrying out a study of urban

environments in developing countries which will produce a

classification of environmental variables relevant to health,

identify health differentials and vulnerable groups, review the

existing literature, and propose future research.  The World Health

Organization (WHO) Commission on Health and the Environment

(forthcoming) has already developed a detailed typology describing

major environmentally induced illnesses by cause for urban areas of

developing countries.



     Several recent studies on the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil have

specifically addressed urban population-environment relationships

in relation to health.  Jacobi (1992) and Hogan (1992b) have

reviewed census data on migration and the spatial distribution of

population and health data (cause of death) for Sao Paulo.  Both

authors traced the development of the slums within which the

majority of the city's population lived and the differential health

impact of urban pollution on this poorer population.  They

identified a historical pattern of urbanization whereby Sao Paulo

had come to be divided between a central core of higher income

groups with full access to basic infrastructure and services and

low rates of population growth and a periphery comprised of

low-income groups with little access to infrastructure and services

and high rates of population growth.  Jacobi (1992) associated

those differences in access to services with higher death rates in

the periphery.  He also suggested that access to potable water was

a primary factor behind diarrhoeal disease, the principle cause of

infant mortality in the periphery.  Hogan (1992b) concluded that

commuting by lower socioeconomic groups from the periphery to Sao

Paulo's industrial core is also associated with poorer health

outcomes for this group.  Hogan (1992b) also concluded that the

single most important environmental factor that affected health

outcomes at the household level is water quality.  Another analysis

of longitudinal data from a sample of over 100,000 households in

Sao Paulo between 1970 and 1980 also suggested that inadequate

access to water and the poor quality of water and sanitation

services in certain areas of the city were associated with higher

levels of neonatal and infant mortality (Ferreira, 1992).



     Hogan (1988a, 1988b and 1993b) also analysed census migration

data for Cubatao, an industrial community on the outskirts of Sao

Paulo, to explore socio-economic differentials between commuter and

resident populations and the differential impact of environmental

pollution during the 1980s.  The concentration of petroleum

refining and other industries in Cubatao had resulted in extensive

water and air pollution.  Hogan observed that as much as one third

of the working population in Cubatao comprised of middle-class

professionals who resided outside but commuted in daily to work. 

This commuting population did not bear the major impact of

Cubatao's environmental pollution, in contrast to the resident

population made up of lower socio-economic groups.  Hogan observed

that the resident population experiences higher levels of

infectious, respiratory and skin diseases.  He concluded that

environmental deterioration in Cubatao would continue since the

resident low-income population was generally not able to

politically mobilize to improve its living conditions.



     Lacey (1993) has analysed atmospheric data collected from a

system of monitoring stations (Red Automatica de Monitoreo (RAMA))

and epidemiologic data from Mexico City between 1987 and 1991 to

study the negative health outcomes of air pollution.  He outlined

the determinants of atmospheric emissions by considering the

geographic characteristics of the City as well as data on car

emissions and fuel consumption.  He observed that deterioration of

air quality in Mexico City had occurred as the result of both rapid

urbanization and industrialization and had negative outcomes on the

health of the population and ultimately its productivity.  He

summarized the Integrated Plan for Atmospheric Contamination in

Mexico City (PICCA) undertaken by the Government in 1990 to respond

to this situation as well as measures by private industries.  These

combined measure included improving the quality of combustibles,

restructuring urban transport, adopting new vehicle technologies,

reforestation and educating the public.



     In contrast to consideration of the impact of urban

environmental change on urban population health, several recent

studies consider the impact of urban populations on the

environment.  Benitez and others, (1993) use census data and

ecological and agricultural data, from an island city (Carmen) on

the Gulf Coast of southern Mexico to analyse the impact of

population growth on the increased degradation of fishing areas and

mangrove swamps in the surrounding Laguna de Terminos between 1970

and 1990.  They observed that the population of Carmen increased

rapidly during the period with the discovery of petroleum in the

region.  They suggested that this growth and the subsequent urban

expansion had been facilitated by the dumping of industrial and

urban wastes in the lagoon, resulting in the contamination of

fishing grounds in the lagoon as well as poor water quality and

adverse health impacts in the city.  They also suggest that the

construction of access roads to Carmen has disrupted drainage

patterns, leading to the destruction of mangrove swamps and the

salinization of agricultural land on the island.  They concluded

that the carrying capacity of Carmen and the island on which it was

situated would be exceeded within the next decade and that it was

therefore necessary to limit both its population and industrial

growth and to develop policies to reduce the pollution already

present.



     In Costa Rica, Arcia and others (1991b) used population

projections in combination with agricultural and forestry censuses

and data on solid wastes, vehicle emissions, fuelwood demand and

urban land-expansion to describe and estimate the future

environmental impact of population growth in metropolitan San Jose

and the surrounding Central Valley.  They developed a

population-environment model (POMA) which estimates annual changes

in environmental variables (air pollution, solid waste production,

deforestation, land-use change) as functions of population growth

and per capita income growth, taking into account the cost of

municipal infra-structure and average amounts of automobile

omissions and solid waste production.  The model projected

hypothetical impacts between 1990 and 2025 under two fertility

assumptions: maintenance of total fertility at the 1990 level of

3.5 or a decline in total fertility to 2.2.  The results suggested

that a decline in the total fertility rate from 3.5 to 2.2 by 2025

would reduce air pollution by 22 per cent and solid wastes by 30

per cent.  Lower total fertility, however, was projected to have

little impact on deforestation; depletion of commercial forest

reserves was projected by the year 2000 under either the current or

low-fertility assumption.  The model also suggested that population

growth would lead to greater demands for agricultural land for food

to supply the metropolitan area and Central Valley.  They also

concluded that lower population growth in metropolitan San Jose

would, therefore, also reduce pressures for agricultural land

expansion and deforestation.  A critical review of the POMA model

as applied to Costa Rica is provided by Sanderson (1992).  The POMA

model has also been applied to Quito, Ecuador, with similar results

and conclusions (Arcia, Bustamente and Paguay, 1991a).





E.  Freshwater resources



     Population may have an impact on freshwater quality and supply

in both urban and rural areas through direct demands for water, or

indirectly through human activities that alter natural water

cycles, cause pollution or redirect water sources, for example, dam

construction and irrigation.  Access to and quality of water could

have reciprocal impacts on a population's health.  Research on the

health impacts of water is addressed above in the context of urban

areas (see section II.D).  The discussion below concentrates on

population impacts on freshwater resources.  A brief review of

existing research and issues related to population impacts on

fresh-water resources as well as on oceans and fisheries has also

been carried out by de Sherbinin (1993).  The following section

considers the main points of this review as well as additional

recent research.



     Recent descriptive studies have outlined the potential impacts

that population change may have on freshwater resources, although

direct links have not yet been carefully explored (de Sherbinin,

1993).  These studies suggested that population growth and

distribution could indirectly affect freshwater quality through

urbanization and deforestation (Schwarz and others, 1990), crop

irrigation, household use and industrialization (L'vovich and

White, 1990; Gleick, 1992).  Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) also

considered the potential impacts of population on water resources. 

They stressed that these impacts should be seen in the context of

natural water cycles and climatic and geographic factors that

create variability in freshwater resources in developing countries.



They also suggested that the natural hydroclimate of much of the

developing world made it particularly subject to water scarcity,

short-growing seasons and drought.  Within those natural contexts,

human activity, mainly the production of solid waste, waste water,

gases and the manipulation of soil, vegetation and rivers, results

in human induced limits to water availability.  Falkenmark (1992)

proposed that in considering population impacts, land and water

resources should be conceptualized together within a holistic

landscape framework rather than separately, as has been the case to

date.



     Falkenmark (1991) and Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) have

quantified levels of water scarcity in developing countries in

relation to population size using national hyrodological data and

data on current and projected populations by developing region. 

They defined three levels of increasing water scarcity in terms of

population per unit of annual water flow.  Water quality and dry

season problems could occur at 100-600 persons per unit water flow,

water stress problems at 600-1000 persons per unit water flow, and

absolute water scarcity at 1,000 or more persons per unit water

flow.  They classified developing regions according to those three

levels between 1990 and 2025.  Using this classification,

Falkenmark (1991) and Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) concluded

that most African countries had experienced and would continue to

experience absolute water scarcity, with over 1,000 persons per

unit water flow from 1990 to 2025.  In Asia, persons per unit water

flow are expected to be generally 600 or more from 1990 to 2025,

indicating a situation of continued water stress.  Falkenmark and

Widstrand (1992) further estimated that by 2025 over 1 billion

people in Africa and southern Asia will live under conditions of

water scarcity.  Latin America reflects the least critical

situation, with persons per unit water flow generally under 600

during the period.  However, Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992)

observed that in Latin America, unlike Africa and Asia, the

majority of the population resided in urban areas where water

quality and supply were widely affected by pollution from

industrial and household waste.  They concluded that population

growth could place severe constraints on development, particularly

in Africa, since development is linked to increased water demands

for improved health, food security and industrial growth.



     Falkenmark (1991) has also considered the relationship between

population per unit water flow and length of growing season as an

indicator of water stress in Africa, using agricultural census and

water availability data from the 1980s.  Falkenmark assumed that

longer growing seasons imply a greater demand for irrigated

agriculture.  Longer growing seasons combined with high population

per unit water flow, therefore, further enhance water stress. 

Those African countries which Falkenmark has identified as having

current and future severe water stress due to high population per

unit water flow (over 1,000) combined with long growing seasons are

all North African countries, Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa, United

Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe.



     Arcia and Bustamente (1992) estimated the impact of population

growth in Quito, Ecuador, on the availability of water between 1970

and 2020, using population census and municipal water service data.



They estimated the proportion of population covered by water

services annually over the period as a function of urban population

growth (4 per cent per annum on average in 1970-1990) and municipal

unit costs and expenditures on water services.  Their estimations

indicated that the proportion of the population with access to

potable water declined between 1970 and 1990.  They attributed this

decline to the fact that municipal expenditures on water did not

keep pace with the city's population growth.  They also estimated

future water consumption and availability to the year 2020 based on

current (4 per cent per annum) and declining rates of urban

population growth.  Their projections indicated that if urban

population growth declined to 1.8 per cent per annum by 2020, water

consumption would be 9 per cent less than if population growth

remained at 4 per cent per annum.  Their results also indicated

that water service coverage would be substantially increased if the

population growth rate declined to 2020.  They concluded that lower

population growth would contribute to increased water availability

in Quito in the future.

==================================================================



     PART TWO.  GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH



                          III.  Issues



                          A.  Migration



     The current literature includes numerous scattered suggestions

for further research on the relationships between migration and the

environment.  The International Organization for Migration and the

Refugee Policy Group (RPG) have proposed a framework for

considering the relationships between migration and the environment

(IOM, 1992).  The IOM-RPG framework presents several broad topical

areas for further investigation, including the environmental

determinants of out-migration, the environmental consequences of

in-migration and the description of migration processes which may

have environmental determinants or consequences.  Consideration of

environmental determinants and consequences of migration may

include assessing the impact and outcomes of natural disasters,

land degradation and fragmentation, industrial disasters,

urbanization, poverty and economic development and infrastructure

projects which transform the environment (e.g., dam construction,

large-scale plantations, mechanized agriculture, roads and

industrial factories).  Research on the environmental determinants

and consequences of migration should include studies of both

sending and receiving areas.  Analysis of the migration process may

include considering the magnitude, timing (emergency, temporary or

permanent), type (national or international) of movement, and

intervening factors (e.g., political boundaries).  In addition,

differentials in environmentally related migration by age, sex and

other characteristics should be assessed.





                   B.  Poverty and development



     A number of descriptive studies consider population and the

environment in relation to the wider issues of poverty and

development (Hardoy and Satterthwaite, 1985 and 1989; Durning,

1989; Stupp and Bilsborrow, 1989; Camp, 1991; Keyfitz, 1991a-d;

Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) 1991; DeWalt and

Stonnich, 1992; International Labor Office, 1992; World Bank,

1992).  However, only a few studies have formulated specific

indicators of poverty (Bilsborrow 1992b; Cruz and others, 1992;

Mink, 1993).  There is a need to further develop specific

indicators of poverty, as well as of development for consideration

in the study of population and the environment.  There is also a

need for further research on the relationships between population,

the environment and changing consumption patterns, gender relations

and patterns of access to natural resources that accompany

development (Arizpe and others, forthcoming).  Future research on

population and the environment that addresses such relationships

will contribute to a greater understanding of what constitutes

"sustainable development".





C.  Critical geographical areas



     The identification of geographical regions where the analysis

of population-environment relationships is particularly critical

due to ecological fragility combined with high population growth or

development pressures has been suggested (Blaikie and Brookfield,

1987; Myers, 1988; Shaw, 1989; Clarke, 1992; United Nations, 1992;

Kasperson and others, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming). 

The calculation of carrying capacity has been used to identify

agriculturally critical areas previously (see above section II.A). 

Additional development of carrying-capacity studies, as well as the

further development of other modelling activities, may allow the

identification of current and future critical geographical areas

where the need for research on population-environment relationships

is particularly urgent.





                            D.  Women



     Future research should also seek to identify and study key

population subgroups involved in resource management, in

particular, women (Cruz and others, 1993; Arizpe and others,

forthcoming).  Arizpe and others, suggested that future research

examine how changes in the household division of labor and domestic

production may affect women and their use and management of natural

resources.  They also suggested additional research on gender

differentials in the perception of resources and attitudes towards

the environment.



        E.  Specific issues for future research by topic



     Issues for future research by literature survey topic

(carrying capacity and macro models, agricultural land, forests,

urban areas and freshwater resources) are listed in annex I to the

present document.  The literature review suggested that the bulk of

current research on population and the environment be focused on

issues related to rural areas and the topics of agricultural land

and forests.  A need for more careful research on these topics, in

terms of specification of issues, methods and data used, exists. 

The following sections and annex I provide some suggestions along

those lines.  Only a limited amount of research has yet addressed

population-environment relationships in the context of urban areas

or in relation to freshwater resources (as well as oceans and

fisheries).  In general, the quantity as well as quality of

research on urban areas and water resources, therefore, needs to be

considerably advanced.  Annex 1 also provides some specific

suggestions relative to these topics.





                          IV.  Methods



         A.  The need for better hypothesis formulation

                  and causal-temporal analysis



     The majority of recent studies on population-environment

relationships are descriptive.  Cross-sectional quantitative or

qualitative data and relationships are generally presented and

cause and effect over time simply inferred.  More direct

exploration of the temporal sequence of events leading to

environmental change and specific examination of the role played by

population is necessary.  Conversely, the impact of environmental

change on population needs to be similarly explored with respect to

temporal sequence.  To this end, future research should undertake

a clearer formulation and testing of hypotheses about cause and

effect relationships between population and environmental variables

over time.  Wood (1993b) has also suggested the need for the

further specification of the scale of time that may be presumed in

the study of population-environment relations, for example the

consideration of short-term versus long-term impacts.  Future

causal-temporal analysis would ideally be based upon longitudinal

data that allow tracking the sequence of events leading to

environmental (or population) change over time.  For example,

further analysis of land degradation in rural areas may benefit by

the postulation of specific theoretical relationships and the

subsequent collection and analysis of information on the temporal

sequence of events that link population growth or increased

density, land fragmentation, more intensified use of land,

deforestation and soil erosion.  Moreover, with more precise

hypothesis formulation and testing there is also much scope for

analysing causal-temporal relationships between population and

environmental variables using existing cross-sectional data

(censuses, surveys, satellite imagery and other government

administrative data sources).





              B.  Clarifying the level of analysis



     The nature and study of population-environment relationships

vary according to the unit or level of analysis considered. 

"Macrolevel" research involves large units of analysis such as the

globe, developing regions, countries, or regions within countries. 

"Microlevel" analysis, in contrast, involves smaller units of

analysis such as households, families, or specific communities. 

Macro and microlevels of analysis imply different data needs,

methodological approaches and possibilities for the generalization

of conclusions.  Macrolevel research generally draws on existing

aggregate data, involves quantitative approaches that make global,

cross-regional or cross-country assessments, and produces

conclusions that provide information on general relationships that

apply to large populations or geographical regions.  Macrolevel

studies may also help identify broad hypotheses for testing at the

microlevel.  Microlevel research, in contrast, requires

disaggregated data, frequently involves qualitative methods and

specialized data collection, and produces less generalizable

conclusions that relate to small specific populations or

communities.  Microlevel research, however, can draw upon much more

detailed information to identify how social, economic, cultural and

institutional factors influence the nature of

population-environment relationships in different contexts

(Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992).



     The need exists for clearer specification of levels of

analysis in research on population and the environment.  Moreover,

more consideration should be given to defining what type of data

and methods are most appropriate at the macrolevel and microlevel

as well as the type of conclusions that can be drawn (Bilsborrow

and Geores, 1993; Ness and others, 1993; Arizpe and others,

forthcoming; Lutz, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming).  The

majority of recent research on population and the environment has

been at the macro-level.  In this regard, the need for better and

additional microlevel research has been increasingly suggested

(Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Jacobsen and Price, 1990; Clarke,

1992; Bilsborrow and Geores, 1993; Arizpe and Velasquez,

forthcoming; Arizpe and others, forthcoming; Zaba and Clarke,

forthcoming).  There is also a need to link information collected

from macrolevel and microlevel research (Zaba and Clarke,

forthcoming).  Arizpe and others, (forthcoming) presented one

comprehensive methodology for such linkages in rural areas.  They

suggested that research began by documenting patterns of local

resource use and proceeding to identify factors (social, cultural,

economic, political) at regional, national and international levels

that mediate those patterns.  A similar approach has been suggested

in the field of human ecology by Vayda (1983) and has been applied

by Wood (1993) and Wood and Schmink (1993a) to study

population-environment relationships on the Brazilian Amazon

frontier.



         C.  Improvements in the measurement and use of

             population and environmental variables



     The majority of current research considers population only in

terms of population size and density (Hogan, 1992; Zaba and Clarke,

forthcoming).  Other aspects of population, especially migration

(as discussed above), need greater consideration and the effects of

population growth and migration need to be distinguished.  In

addition, the long-term environmental impacts of population

momentum are also of interest (Lutz, forthcoming).  Finally, it is

desirable to examine the environmental impacts of population

composition (sex and age) and socio-economic characteristics

(marital status, educational status etc.).



     In contrast to population, which has been defined and

operationalized in a precise but limited way, definitions used for

environmental variables have varied in current research.  Thus,

environmental variables have been defined a priori by researchers

according to resource (water, air, forests and land), by climatic

zone, or by urban or rural location.  Units of analysis range from

the global environment, to national, subnational, community and

household environments.  Variables used to indicate environmental

degradation also vary from specific quantitative measures of soil

loss and deforestation to more qualitative impressionistic

reporting of overall deterioration.  At the same time, in the

formulation of environmental variables, there has been little

consideration of the social boundaries of environments and of

environmental degradation as perceived by local residents (Blaikie

and Brookfield, 1987; Leff, 1993; Ness and others, 1993).  There

is, therefore, a need for clearer specification, elaboration, and

justification of environmental variables and variables of

environmental degradation used in a given research context.





             D.  Need for multidisciplinary research



     Current research on population and the environment continues

to be carried out largely within the confines of separate

disciplines despite a recognition, by both social and natural

scientists of the need for a multidisciplinary approach (Blaikie

and Brookfield, 1987; Jacobson and Price, 1990; Clarke, 1992; Leff,

1993; Stern, 1992 and 1993).  This has been attributed to a lack of

institutional support within the academic community, a lack of a

common research vocabulary and theoretical paradigm, problems of

data compatibility, and funding sources which continue to be

strongly oriented around specific disciplines (PRC, 1992).



     Recent suggestions for advancing multidisciplinary efforts

include creating multidisciplinary training programmes for

researchers and coordinating existing independent population and

environmental research projects (PRC, 1992).  The undertaking of

specific multidisciplinary case-studies of, for example, several

cities, tropical forests, or island areas in the developing world

has also been proposed to serve as a starting point for the

development of a common theoretical paradigm and future agenda

(PRC, 1992).  The use of geographic information systems (GIS) may

also support the evolution of multidisciplinary research, and is

discussed further below (chap.  V).





                            V.  Data



        A.  Improvements in population and environmental

                       data compatibility



     There is currently a lack of compatibility between population

and environmental data (Clarke and Rhind, 1991).  Population data,

for example, from censuses and surveys, are collected by political

or administrative unit.  Population data, therefore, rarely match

environmental data, which are collected usually by ecosystem,

topographic, or climatic zone.  The future investigation of

population-environment relationships would thus benefit

substantially from the collection of demographic data in a way that

would facilitate analysis by ecological or climatic zone (Cruz and

others, 1993; Zaba and Clarke, forthcoming).  Conversely, the

growing wealth of environmental data available from satellite

imagery technologies offers a great potential for the analysis of

population-environment relationships if greater compatibility with

demographic data can be achieved.



     The use of GIS to analyse population and environmental data

from multiple sources and disciplines has also been suggested

(Jacobson and Price, 1990; Clarke and Rhind, 1991; Cruz and others,

1993; Zinn and others, 1993).  GIS allows the creation of map-like

images that can overlay point source data (e.g., water quality),

flow data (e.g., migration or population growth rates), and areal

patterns (e.g., population density, forest cover and land use). 

More complicated GIS images may be created through the use of

computers while simpler images may be created by hand (Zinn and

others, 1993).  The use of GIS may also serve as a concrete means

of promoting multidisciplinary approaches since it requires data

inputs from and coordination among different disciplines (PRC,

1992).





                 B.  Better use of existing data



     Arcia (1992) and Bilsborrow (1992c) have argued for a more

complete use of existing information, noting that the generation

and maintenance of new complex data sets is beyond the resources of

many developing countries.  Several existing databases contain both

population and environmental data and may be used in future

research.  These include: the World Bank Living Standard

Measurement Surveys (LSMS), carried out in about a 12 developing

countries; the Historic Land Use and Carbon Estimate Database for

South and Southeast Asia, 1880-1980 (Richards, forthcoming); UNESCO

Man in the Biosphere (MAB) Program data (MAB, 1987; Di Castri,

1981); and the Consortium for International Earth Science

Information Network (CIESIN, 1992).  The World Resources Institute

and Brookings Institute (1993) is also currently assembling a

computerized database which will bring together longitudinal

information on population, environmental and socio-economic

variables for both developed and developing countries.  UNESCO has

recently compiled a computerized bibliographic database on

desertification called "ISIS" which aims to facilitate the

identification of data sets for study.



     Existing computer-based GIS that may be further exploited to

examine population-environment relationships include: the Global

Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) and the Global Resource

Information Data Base (GRID) created by the United Nations

Environment Program (UNEP) 1985; Gwynne and Mooneyhan, 1989); and

the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), maintained by the United

States Agency for International Development (USAID) (Bass, 1986;

Walsh, 1986 and 1988).  Local-level population and environment

monitoring systems (PEMS) have also been set up in some developing

countries, including Indonesia, Mexico and Zimbabwe (Zinn and

others, 1993).  These systems are prospectively collecting

demographic, health, socio-economic and environmental data at the

local level for integration into GIS.



     Several current studies discussed in the literature survey

draw on existing agricultural and population census data to examine

population-environment relationships in various countries of

Central America (Stonich, 1989; Stupp and Bilsborrow, 1989;

Harrison, 1990; Bilsborrow and DeLargy, 1991; DeWalt and Stonich,

1992; DeWalt and others, 1993).  The potential for wider use of

existing population and agricultural census data is highlighted by

Bilsborrow (1992c).  Simple alterations in the collection of

agricultural and population census data, for example, the use of

linked identification codes, would allow their greater combined use

in the future even at the level of the household (Bilsborrow, 1992;

Bilsborrow and Geores, 1992).  Pooling resources from separate

single-purpose surveys covering the same population can be another

means of collecting appropriate data on population-environment

relationships through existing data collection mechanisms.



     As noted in the Introduction to this literature survey,

research and data in languages other than English, which may be

ongoing in research centers in developing countries or is as yet

unpublished, has not been considered here.  This research and

existing data should also be assessed.





                   C.  Future data collection



     While existing information should be better exploited in

future research, the need also exists for the upgrading and design

of specialized databases for the integrated long-term analysis of

population, land use, economic and environmental trends (Cruz and

others, 1993).  The design of an environmental module to be added

to the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) has been proposed (PRC,

1992).  Inclusion of an environmental module in the DHS could

produce data that could be analysed in conjunction with the

extensive socio-economic and demographic data and more limited

community-level data collected by the surveys.  Such data could

provide comparative national and household data on population and

the environment.



     With regard to the further study of migration and the

environment, Bilsborrow (1992c) has stressed that additional data

collection on places of origin and receiving areas is highly

desirable.  This would allow analysis of the environmental

determinants and consequences of migration in sending areas and in

areas of destination.

=================================================================

                             ANNEX 1



       Specific recommendations for future research issues

                   by literature survey topic



(a)  Carrying Capacity and Macro Models



1.   Undertake carrying capacity and macro model studies to

identify critical geographic areas.





(b)  Agricultural Land



1.   Evaluate the direct effects of urbanization on levels and

patterns of consumption as well as its indirect effects on

agricultural production and land use.



2.   Collect and analyze household-level data to identify the

demographic and other determinants (e.g., population growth, land

tenure) and consequences (e.g., changes in land use, technology,

crops, environmental degradation) of land fragmentation.



3.   Project the amount of out-migration required to counter-

balance the effects of natural population growth on land

fragmentation.



4.   Conduct further country-level case studies of the

relationships between population growth, density, and migration, on

the one hand, and agricultural extensification and intensification,

rural employment, and land degradation on the other.



5.   Assess the role played by population growth, size, density,

distribution and migration in relation to desertification through

analysis of time-series data on population, water use and land use,

particularly in the Sahel as well as in semi-arid areas and range

lands.



6.   Analyze labor availability and demographic change in relation

to land degradation at the local level.



7.   Conduct case studies on areas where population growth, land

conservation, and increased agricultural land productivity have

successfully occurred.



8.   Examine the roles played by institutions, land tenure and

reform, and other government policies in mediating population-

environment relationships.



9.   Study the effects of land degradation on stimulating different

types of out-migration and the creation of so-called "environmental

refugees."



10.  Use of cross-country data to more intensively analyze the

linkages between population change and land use changes, while

controlling for socio-economic and political differences across

countries.





(c)  Forests



1.   Conduct regional and national case studies on both the causes

and consequences of deforestation based on existing sources of data

(e.g., population and agricultural censuses, satellite imagery).



2.   Analyze changes in household-level demographic variables

(household size, age-sex composition) over time in relation to land

use, land clearing, and deforestation.



3.   Analyze the determinants of migration to forest frontier areas

through the collection and analysis of data on migrants and

non-migrants in both sending and destination areas.



4.   Study the effects of deforestation on time spent in fuelwood

collection, and on household distribution of labor, including

women's time allocation, nutrition and health.



5.   Analyze the relative impacts of demographic factors,

subsistence farming, commercial farming, and ranching on

deforestation.



6.   Analyze country, community and household level data to

identify the various levels of factors influencing deforestation by

households.



7.   Conduct studies on the nature and extent of population-

deforestation linkages in particularly fragile ecosystems or

critical areas.





(d)  Urban Areas



1.   Examine changes in pollutants over time, for example, carbon

dioxide emissions or water pollution, in relation to changes in

population growth, size, and distribution.



2.   Study the impacts of efforts to encourage (e.g., Puerto Rico)

or restrict (e.g., China and Indonesia) urban growth on the local

and national environment.



3.   Investigate the linkages between population and the

environment in urban and rural areas resulting from rural-urban

migration and growing urban demands for fuelwood, food and other

commodities.



4.   Study the environmental impacts of urban growth on nearby

coastal areas.





5.   Study the impacts of exposure to urban pollutants on human

health, including incidence of illness by age and sex.





(e)  Freshwater Resources



1.   Conduct micro-level studies of specific locales comparing

population and economic changes to changes in water flows and water

pollution levels over time.



2.   Study changes in water supplies and time spent in water

collection on household distribution of labor, women's time

allocation, nutrition and health.



3.   Investigate the impact of population density on water supplies

and sanitation.



4.   Study of the relationships between population dynamics and

water availability and water use in contexts where desertification

may be occurring.



5.   Study the relative effects of population growth on direct

water demands for household use and indirect water demands for

agricultural production.

=================================================================

                             ANNEX 2



          Selected institutions involved in research on

                population-environment relations



                                                                

                             AFRICA

Kenya



United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

P.  O.  Box 30552, Nairobi





Mali



CERPOD

BP 1530, Bamako



                              ASIA

Indonesia



Demographic Institute

University of Indonesia

Jalan Salemba Raya 4

Jakarta 10430





Pakistan



National Institute of Population Studies

House No.  8

Street No.  70, F-8/3

P.  O.  Box 2197, Islamabad





Philippines



Population Institute

University of the Philippines

3rd Floor Palma Hall

P.  O.  Box 479

Diliman, Quezon City





Thailand



Institute of Population Studies

Chulalongkorn University

Bangkok 10330



Institute for Population and Social Research

Mahidol University

25/25 Puthamoltol 4, Salaya, 73170

Nakornpathom





                          LATIN AMERICA

Brazil



Center for Development and Regional Planning (CEDEPLAR)

Rua Curitiba 832

Belo Horizonte 30170 M.G.



Population Studies Center

State University of Campinas

13081 Campinas-S.P.



Instituto Sociedade, Populacao e Natureza (ISPN)

Caixa Postal 9944

Brasilia, DF 700001-970





Mexico



Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisiplinarias de la

  Universidad Autonoma de Mexico (CRIM-UNAM)

Cuidade Universitaria

Santa Maria

Cuernavaca, Morelos



Consejo Nacional de Poblacion (CONAPO)

Angel Uraza 1137 Col.  del Valle

CD D3100

Mexico, D.  F.



Programa De Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo Sustenable

  Y Medio Ambiente (LEAD-Mexico)

Centro Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano

El Colegio de Mexico

Camino al Ajusco 20

Pedregal de Santa Teresa

10740, Mexico, D.F.





                             EUROPE

Austria



Population Project

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

A-2361 Laxenburg





Belgium



Department des sciences de la population et du development

Center International de Formation et de recherche en Population

  et Development (CIDEP)

Universite Catholique de Louvain

1 Montesquieu, Boite 17

B-1348, Louvain-la-Neuve





France



Center Francais sur la Population et le Developpment (CEPED)

15, rue de l'Ecole de Medecine

75270 Paris Cedex 06



International Social Science Council (ISSC)

1 rue Miollis

75015 Paris



UNESCO Man in the Biosphere Programme (MAB)

UNESCO

75700 Paris



Laboratoire Population-Environment

Universite de Provence

ORSTOM

25 rue de la Providence

13710 Fuveau





Netherlands



Netherlands Inter-Disciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)

P.  O.  Box 11650

2502 AR, The Hague





Poland



Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization

Polish Academy of Sciences

Krakowskie Przedmiescie 30

00-927 Warszawa





Sweden



Programme on Population and Development

Department of Sociology

University of Lund

Finngatan 16

S-223 62 LUND





Switzerland



International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

rue Mauverney 28

CH-1196 Gland



United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD)

Program on Environment, Sustainable Development and Social Change

Palais des Nations

1211 Geneva 10





United Kingdom



Centre for Population Studies

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

99 Gower Street

London WC1E 6AZ



International Institute for the Environment and Development

3 Endsleigh Street

London WC1H ODD



Department of Geography

Universty of Liverpool

P.  O.  Box 147

Liverpool L69 3BX





                          UNITED STATES



Center for World Environment and Sustainable Development

Duke University, North Carolina State University,

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Box 7619

North Carolina State University

Raleigh, NC 27695-7619



Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change

Social Science Research Council (SSRC)

605 Third Avenue

New York, NY 10158



Environmental and Natural Resource Training Project (ETAP)

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Winrock International Environmental Alliance

1611 Kent Street, Suite 600

Arlington, VA 22209



Environment and Production Technology Division

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

1776 Mass Avenue, N.  W.

Washington, D.C.  20003



George Perkins Marsh Institute

Clarke University

850 Main Street

Worcester, MA 01610



Department of Human Ecology

Rutgers University

New Brunswick, NJ



The Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies

Stanford University

Herrin Labs 467

Stanford, CA 94305



Population Environment Dynamics Project (PEDP)

Department of Population Planning

School of Public Health

University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, MI 48109



Centre for Demography and Ecology

University of Wisconsin

Madison, Wisconsin 53706

 

=================================================================



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Utting, P. (1991).  The Social Origins and Impact of Deforestation

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Vainer, C. (1993). Populacao, meio ambiente e conflito social na

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van den Oever, P. (1990).  The complexities of sustainability.  In

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Vaugelade, J. (1990).  Population et environnement: les approches

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Vayda, A. (1983).  Progressive contexturalization:  methods for

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Walsh, J. (1986).  Famine early warning closer to reality.

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Western, S. (1988).  Carrying capacity, population growth and sus-

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Whitney, H. (1987).  Impact of fuelwood use on environmental

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Williams, M. (1989).  Deforestation:  past and present.  Progress

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Wilson, E. (1989).  Threats to biodiversity.  Scientific American

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Wilson, K. (1991).  Rainfall variability, ecological change and

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Wirosuhardjo, L. (1991).  Development, environmental and

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Wolman, M., and F. Fournier, eds. (1987).  Land Transformation in

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Wood, C. (1993a).  Population and land use change in the Brazilian

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                      REFERENCES BY REGION



Africa



Abu-Sin, M., and M. El-Sammani (1988); Agarwal, B. (1985); Agbo,

V., and others (1993); Ajaegbu, H. I. (1993); Allen, J. (1985);

Anderson, D. (1984); Anderson, D. (1986); Anderson, D., and R.

Fishwick (1984); Ardayfio-Schandorf, E. (1993); Bernard, F., D.

Campbell and T. Derrick (1989); Bilsborrow, R., and P. DeLargy

(1991); Bonin, G., and others (1992); Bradley, P., N. Chavangi and

A. Van Gelder (1985); Clay, D. (1993); Cleaver, K. M., and G.

Schreiber (1992); Cline-Cole, R. (1987); Cline-Cole, R., H. Main

and J. Nichol (1990); Costello, M. A. (1988); David, R. (1993);

Diejomaoh, V. (1988); Falkenmark, M. (1989); Falkenmark, M. (1991);

Feldman, A. (1990); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations (FAO) (1991); Fratkin, E. (1991); French, D. (1986); Ghai,

D. (1992); Gould, B. (forthcoming); Hance, W. (1975); Ho, T. J.

(1985); Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock (1987); Hyden, G., R.

Kates and B. Turner (1993); Ibrahim, F. (1987); Lele, U. (1991);

Lele, U., and S. W. Stone (1989); Little, P. (forthcoming); Lutz,

W. (1991); Lutz, W., and E. Holm (1992); Lutz, W., and F. L. Toth,

eds. (1991); Mathieu, P. (1990); May, J. (1993); McIntosh, A.

(1993); Morgan, W. (1981); Mortimore, M. (1986); Mortimore, M.

(1992); Okafor, F. (1987); O'Keefe, P., and P. Raskin (1985);

Ornas, A., and M. A. Salih, eds. (1989); Picardi, A. (1974);

Picouet, M. (1990); Picouet, M. (1991); Picouet, M. (1992);

Shapiro, D. (1993); Showers, K., and G. Malahleha (1992); Talbot,

L. (1989); Tiffen, M., and M. Mortimore (1992); United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP) (1993); United Nations Economic

Commission for Africa (ECA) (1991); United Nations Sudano-Sahelian

Office (UNSO) (1990); Vaugelade, J. (1990); Whitney, H. (1987);

Wilson, K. (1991); Zaba, B. (1991).





Asia



Agarwal, B. (1985); Agarwal, B. (1986b); Agarwal, B. (1988);

Agarwal, B. (1991); Agarwal, B. (forthcoming); Asian Development

Bank (1992); Bandyopadhyay, J., and others (1985); Benoit, D., and

P. Levang (1990); Brechin, S., and others (1993); Brookfield, H.

(1980); Brookfield, H. (1981); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993);

Cruz, M., and others (1992); Cruz, W., and M. Cruz (1990); D'Monte,

D. (1991); Donnor, W. (1987); Geertz, C. (1968); Geores, M. E., and

R. E. Bilsborrow (1991); Gilloghy, _____ and _____ Ranbo, eds.

(1993); Hazarika, S. (1993); Hrabovszky, J., and K. Miyan (1987);

Ives, J. D. (1988); Jodha, N. (1985); Jodha, N. (1987); Jodha, N.

(1991); Jodha, N. (1992); Jones, G. (1993); Joshi, S., ed. (1986);

Kanaskar Thapa, K. (1992); Kim, O., and P. van den Oever (1992);

Kumar, S., and D. Hotchkiss (1988); Li, J. (1991); Lopez, M. E.

(1987); Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T., and others

(1986); Mahat, T., and others (1986); Myers, N. (1989); Panayotou,

T. (1991); Panayotou, T., and C. Parasuk (1990); Panayotou, T., and

S. Sungsuwan (1989); Pudasaini, S. (1993); Ramsay, W. (1986); Ren,

Q. (1987); Repetto, R. (1989a); Richards, J., E. Flint and R.

Daniels (forthcoming); Shrestha, N. (1982); Shrestha, N. (1989);

Shrestha, N. (1990); Shrestha, N., and D. Conway (1985); Singh, J.,

ed. (1985); Singh, T., and others, eds. (1982); Surapaty, S., and

others (1993); Thapa, G. B., and K. E. Weber (1991); Thompson, M.,

M. Warburton and T. Hatley (1987); United Nations Educational,

Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (1992); Western, S.

(1988); Wirosuhardjo, L. (1991); Wirosuhardjo, K. (1993); World

Bank (1988); Wu, S., and others (1987); Xenos, P. (1993).



Latin America



Arcia, G. (1990); Arcia, G., G. Bustamente and J. Paguay (1991);

Arcia, G., and G. Bustamente (1992); Arcia, G., and others (1991);

Benitez, J., and others (1993); Bilsborrow, R., and P. DeLargy

(1991); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992); Bilsborrow, R., and

P. Stupp (forthcoming); Brush, S. (1987); Clawson, D. L. (1982);

Collins, J. L. (1986); Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion

(CCRP) (1993); Cruz, M., and others (1992); DeWalt, B. (1985);

DeWalt, B., and P. Bidegaray (1991); DeWalt, B., and S. Stonich

(1992); DeWalt, B., S. Stonich and S. Hamilton (forthcoming);

DeWalt, B., and others (1993); Diegues, A., P. Kageyama and V.

Viana (1992); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Durham, W.

(1979); Fearnside, P. (1982); Fearnside, P. (1984); Fearnside, P.

(1986); Fearnside, P. (1988); Fearnside, P. (1990); Ferreira, C.

(1992); Foweraker, J. (1981); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989); Fuentes,

E. (1990); Fuentes, E., R. Aviles and A. Segura (1989); Garcia de

Alba, L. (1993); Garland, E. B. (1987); Godoy, R. A. (1984); Hall,

A. L. (1989); Harrison, S. (1990); Hecht, S. (1992); Heming, J.

(1982a); Heming, J. (1982b); Hogan, D. (1988a); Hogan, D. (1988b);

Hogan, D. (1992b); Hogan, D., and P. Burian (1993); Izazola, H.,

and S. Lerner, eds. (1993); Jones, J. (1992); Ledec, G. (1992);

Leonard, H. (1987); Leonard, H. (1989); Leopoldo, P., F. Wolfram

and E. Matsui (1982); Lovejoy, T. (1982); Martine, G. (1988);

Merino, L., and B. O'Hanlon, eds. (1991); Mexico, Consejo Nacional

de Poblacion (CONAPO) (1991); Mexico, Ministerio de Obras Publicas

y Urbanismo de Mexico (MOPU) (1990); Moran, E. (1981); Moran, E.

(1982); Moran, E. (1990); Painter, M. (1987); Paolisso, M., and S.

W. Yudelman (1991); Pichon, F., S. Vosti and J. Witcover (1993);

Pichon, F., and R. Bilsborrow (forthcoming); Provencio, E., and J.

Carabias (1993); Rudel, T. (1983); Rudel, T. (1993a); Rudel, T.,

and B. Horowitz (1993b); Sanchez, V., M. Castillejos and L. Bracho

(1989); Sawyer, D. (1987); Sawyer, D. (1993); Sawyer, P. (1992);

Schmink, M. (1988); Schmink, M., and C. Wood (1987); Schmink, M.,

and Wood, C. (1993); Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia

(SEDUE) (1986); Skole, D., and C. Tucker (1993); Smolka, M. (1993);

Southgate, D. (1992); Southgate, D., and C. Runge (1990);

Southgate, D., R. Sierra and L. Brown (1989); Southgate, D., and M.

Whitaker (forthcoming); Stonich, S. (1989); Stonich, S., and B.

DeWalt (1989); Stupp, P., and R. Bilsborrow (1989); Sydenstricker,

J., and S. Vosti (1993); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); Tudela, F. (1992);

Tudela, F. (1993); United Nations Economic Commission for Latin

America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (1991); Utting, P. (1991);

Vainer, C. (1993); Wood, C. (1993a); Wood, C., and M. Schmink

(1993).



                      REFERENCES BY SUBJECT





Carrying capacity and macro models



Arcia, G., and others (1991); Bernard, F., D. Campbell and T.

Derrick (1989); Bogue, D. E. (1993); Council on Environmental

Quality, and Department of State (1980); Fearnside, P. (1990);

Fisher, J., and N. Potter (1971); Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations (FAO) (1983); FAO (1991); FAO (1991); Garcia

de Alba, L. (1993); Giampietro, M., S. Bukkens and D. Pimentel

(1992); Gilbert, A., and L. Braat (1991); Grainger, A. (1993);

Hawley, A. H. (1986); Hayes, B. (1993); Herrera, A. (1975);

Higgins, G., and others (1982); Hogan, D. (1993a); Hogan, D., and

P. Burian (1993); International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis (IIASA) (1991); King, J. (1991); Leff, E. (1993); Lutz,

W., and others (1993); Lutz, W., and E. Holm (1992); Lutz, W., and

F. L. Toth, eds. (1991); Mahar, D. (1985); May, J. (1993); Meadows,

D. (1985); Meadows, D., and others (1972); Meadows, D., and others

(1992); Merino, L., and B. O'Hanlon, eds. (1991); Mutrai, S., and

others (1990); Njoka, B. (1991); Palo, M. (1990); Panayotou, T.,

and S. Sungsuwan (1989); Picardi, A. (1974); Repetto, R., and T.

Holmes (1983); Revelle, R. (1984); Ridker, R. G. (1979); Robinson,

W., and W. Schutjer (1984); Sanderson, W. C. (1992); Scotti, R.

(1990); Simon, J. (1981); Steinmann, G. (1988); Stycos, J. (1993);

Western, S. (1988); Zaba, B., and I. Scoones (forthcoming).





Agricultural land and rangelands



Abu-Sin, M., and M. El-Sammani (1988); Agarwal, B. (1985); Agarwal,

B. (1986b); Agarwal, B. (1988); Bardhan, P. (1988); Bass, T.

(1986); Benoit, D., and P. Levang (1990); Bilsborrow, R. (1987);

Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);

Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (forthcoming); Bilsborrow, R., and M.

Geores (1993); Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp (forthcoming); Blaikie,

P. (1985); Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield, eds. (1987); Boserup, E.

(1965); Boserup, E. (1976); Boserup, E. (1981); Bromley, D. (1989);

Brush, S. (1987); Buringh, P., and R. Dudal (1987); Cain, M., and

G. McNicoll (1988); Caldwell, J. (1984); Ceberry, C., and others

(1987); Chayanov, A. (1966); Clay, D. (1993); Cleaver, K. M., and

G. Schreiber (1992); Collins, J. (1987); Collins, J. L. (1986);

Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993); Costello,

M. A. (1988); Coulter, J. (1992); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993);

Cruz, M., and others (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991); DeWalt, B.

(1985); DeWalt, B., and P. Bidegaray (1991); DeWalt, B., and S.

Stonich (1992); DeWalt, B., S. Stonich and S. Hamilton

(forthcoming); DeWalt, B., and others (1993); Diejomaoh, V. (1988);

Donnor, W. (1987); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Ehrlich,

P., A. Ehrlich and G. Daily (1993); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P.

Vimard (1989); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P. Vimard (1991);

Fearnside, P. (1984); Fearnside, P. (1988); Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1983); FAO (1991); FAO

(1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1991); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989);

Fratkin, E. (1991); Fuentes, E. (1990); Fuentes, E., R. Aviles and

A. Segura (1989); Garland, E. B. (1987); Geertz, C. (1968); Geores,

M. E., and R. E. Bilsborrow (1991); Ghosh, P. K., ed. (1984);

Gilloghy, _____ and _____ Ranbo, eds. (1993); Gleave, B.

(forthcoming); Godoy, R. A. (1984); Gould, B. (forthcoming);

Harrison, S. (1990); Hayami, Y., and V. Ruttan (1985); Hazarika, S.

(1993); Hecht, S. (1992); Heilig, G. (1993); Higgins, G., and

others (1982); Ho, T. J. (1985); Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock

(1987); Hrabovszky, J., and K. Miyan (1987); Hyden, G., R. Kates

and B. Turner (1993); Ibrahim, F. (1987); Jodha, N. (1985); Jodha,

N. (1987); Jodha, N. (1991); Jolly, C., and B. Torrey, eds.

(forthcoming); Kanaskar Thapa, K. (1992); Kumar, S., and Hotchkiss

(1988); Ledec, G. (1992); Ledec, G., and R. Goodland, eds. (1988);

Lele, U. (1991); Lele, U., and S. W. Stone (1989); Li, J. (1991);

Lipton, M. (1993); Little, P. (forthcoming); Little, P. (1987);

Martine, G. (1988); Mathieu, P. (1990); May, J. (1993); McIntosh,

A. (1993); McNicoll, G., and M. Cain, eds. (1989); Meyer, W., and

B. Turner (1992); Milas, S. (1985); Mohamed, Y., and M. Abu-Sin

(1985); Mortimore, M. (1986); Mortimore, M. (1992); Moss, R., and

W. Morgan (1981); Okafor, F. (1987); Painter, M. (1987); Panayotou,

T. (1991); Panayotou, T., and C. Parasuk (1990); Panayotou, T., and

S. Sungsuwan (1989); Picardi, A. (1974); Pichon, F., S. Vosti and

J. Witcover (1993); Pichon, F., and R. Bilsborrow (forthcoming);

Picouet, M. (1990); Picouet, M. (1991); Picouet, M. (1992);

Pingali, P., and H. Binswanger (1987); Pingali, P. and H.

Binswanger (1988); Provencio, E., and J. Carabias (1993); Ramsay,

W. (1986); Ren, Q. (1987); Repetto, R. (1989a); Richards, J., E.

Flint and R. Daniels (forthcoming); Robinson, W., and W. Schutjer

(1984); Rosenzweig, M., H. Binswanger and J. McIntire (1988);

Rudel, T., and B. Horowitz (1993b); Russell, W. (1988); Ruttan, V.

(forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and Y. Hayami (1991); Sawyer, D.

(1993); Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia (SEDUE) (1986);

Shapiro, D. (1993); Showers, K., and G. Malahleha (1992); Shrestha,

N. (1982); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Southgate, D. (1992); Stiles, D.

(1985); Stiles, D. (1985); Stocking, M. (1987); Stonich, S. (1989);

Stonich, S., and B. DeWalt (1989); Stupp, P., and R. Bilsborrow

(1989); Surapaty, S., and others (1993); Talbot, L. (1989);

Thiesenhusen, W. (1989); Thiesenhusen, W. (1991); Tiffen, M., and

M. Mortimore (1992); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); United Nations

Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (1992);

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (1985); United Nations

Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO) (1990); Walsh, J. (1986); Walsh, J.

(1988); Wolman, M., and F. Fournier, eds. (1987); World Bank

(1988); Wu, S., and others (1987); Xenos, P. (1993).



Forests



Agarwal, B. (1986a); Agbo, V., and others (1993); Allen, J. (1985);

Allen, J. C., and D. F. Barnes (1985); Anderson, D. (1984);

Anderson, D. (1986); Anderson, D., and R. Fishwick (1984);

Ardayfio-Schandorf, E. (1993); Barnes, D. F. (1990); Barraclough,

S., and K. Ghimire (1990); Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R.

(1992b); Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores

(1992); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (forthcoming); Bilsborrow,

R., and M. Geores (1993); Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp

(forthcoming); Bogue, D. E. (1993); Bonin, G., and others (1992);

Bowonder, B. (1985); Brechin, S., and others (1993); Browder, J.

(1989); Clawson, D. L. (1982); Cline-Cole, R. (1987); Cline-Cole,

R., H. Main and J. Nichol (1990); Collins, J. L. (1986); Coulter,

J. (1992); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993); Cruz, M., and others

(1992); Cruz, W., and M. Cruz (1990); DeWalt, B. (1985); DeWalt,

B., and S. Stonich (1992); DeWalt, B., S. Stonich and S. Hamilton

(forthcoming); DeWalt, B., and others (1993); Diegues, A., P.

Kageyama and V. Viana (1992); Donnor, W. (1987); Dorner, P., and W.

Thiesenhusen (1991); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Eckholm,

E. (1975); Eckholm, E., and others (1984); Fearnside, P. (1982);

Fearnside, P. (1984); Fearnside, P. (1986); Fearnside, P. (1988);

Fearnside, P. (1990); Feldman, A. (1990); Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1987); FAO (1991); FAO

(1992); Foweraker, J. (1981); French, D. (1986); Geores, M. E., and

R. E. Bilsborrow (1991); Godoy, R. A. (1984); Goodland, R. (1991);

Grainger, A. (1993); Gregersen, H., P. Oram and J. Spears, ed.

(1992); Gregersen, H. (1992); Guppy, N. (1984); Hall, A. L. (1989);

Hallsworth, E. G., ed. (1982); Harrison, S. (1990); Hecht, S.

(1992); Heming, J. (1982a); Heming, J. (1982b); Herrera, R., and

others (1981); Hrabovszky, J., and K. Miyan (1987); Ives, J. D.

(1988); Jodha, N. (1992); Jones, J. (1992); Kanaskar Thapa, K.

(1992); Kumar, S., and Hotchkiss (1988); Lanly, J. (1982); Ledec,

G. (1985); Ledec, G. (1992); Leonard, H. (1989); Leopoldo, P., F.

Wolfram and E. Matsui (1982); Li, J. (1991); Lovejoy, T. (1982);

Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T. (1987); Mahat, T., and others (1986);

Mahat, T., and others (1986); Mather, A. S. (1989); Meyer, W., and

B. Turner (1992); Moran, E. (1981); Moran, E. (1982); Moran, E.

(1990); Morgan, W. (1981); Moss, R., and W. Morgan (1981); Myers,

N. (1979); Myers, N. (1988); Myers, N. (1991); O'Keefe, P. and P.

Raskin (1985); Palloni, A. (1992); Palo, M. (1990); Panayotou, T.

(1991); Panayotou, T., and C. Parasuk (1990); Panayotou, T., and S.

Sungsuwan (1989); Pichon, F., S. Vosti and J. Witcover (1993);

Pichon, F., and R. Bilsborrow (forthcoming); Plumwood, V., and R.

Routley (1982); Ramsay, W. (1986); Ren, Q. (1987); Repetto, R.

(1990); Richards, J. F., and R. P. Tucker, eds. (1988); Rudel, T.

(1983); Rudel, T. (1989); Rudel, T. (1993a); Rudel, T., and B.

Horowitz (1993b); Sawyer, D. (1987); Sawyer, P. (1992); Schmink, M.

(1988); Schmink, M. (forthcoming); Schmink, M., and C. Wood (1987);

Schmink, M., and Wood, C. (1993); Scotti, R. (1990); Shrestha, N.

(1982); Shrestha, N. (1989); Shrestha, N. (1990); Shrestha, N., and

D. Conway (1985); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Skole, D., and C. Tucker

(1993); Southgate, D. (1992); Southgate, D., and C. Runge (1990);

Southgate, D., R. Sierra and L. Brown (1989); Surapaty, S., and

others (1993); Sydenstricker, J., and S. Vosti (1993); Thapa, G.

B., and K. E. Weber (1991); Thompson, M., M. Warburton and T.

Hatley (1987); Tudela, F., ed. (1989);  Utting, P. (1991); Whitney,

H. (1987); Williams, M. (1989); Williams, M. (1990); Wood, C.

(1993a); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993); World Bank (1988).





Urban areas



Arcia, G. (1990); Arcia, G., G. Bustamente and J. Paguay (1991);

Arcia, G., and G. Bustamente (1992); Arcia, G., and others (1991);

Benitez, J., and others (1993); Benneh, G. (1992); Bonin, G., and

others (1992); Brown, L., and J. Jacobson (1987); Cline-Cole, R.

(1987); Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993);

D'Monte, D. (1991); Faussey-Domalain, C., and P. Vimard (1989);

Ferreira, C. (1992); Hamza, A. (1992); Hardoy, J., and D.

Satterthwaite (1985); Hardoy, J. E., and D. Satterthwaite (1989);

Hogan, D. (1988a); Hogan, D. (1988b); Hogan, D. (1992b); Hogan, D.,

and P. Burian (1993); International Labour Office (1991); Jacobi,

P. (1992); Lowry, I. (1991); Merino, L., and B. O'Hanlon, eds.

(1991); Mexico, Consejo Nacional de Poblacion (CONAPO) (1991);

Population Environment and Development Program (PEDP)

(forthcoming); Roberts, B. (forthcoming); Rybakovsky, L. (1992);

Sanchez, V., M. Castillejos and L. Bracho (1989); Satterthwaite, D.

(1993); Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia (SEDUE) (1986);

Smolka, M. (1993); United Nations Centre for Human Settlements

(1992).





Freshwater resources



Arcia, G., and G. Bustamente (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991);

Falkenmark, M. (1989); Falkenmark, M. (1991); Falkenmark, M.

(1992); Falkenmark, M., and C. Widstrand (1992); Fratkin, E.

(1991); Gleick, P. (1992); Grosse, S. (1993); Heming, J. (1982a);

la Riviere, J. (1989); Leonard, H. (1989); Leopoldo, P., F. Wolfram

and E. Matsui (1982); Lovejoy, T. (1982); L'vovich, M., and G.

White (1990); Mohamed, Y., and M. Abu-Sin (1985); Nelson, L., and

C. Sandell (1990); Schwarz, H., and others (1990); The Population

Institute (1990); United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

(1982); United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (1983); Wilson,

K. (1991).





Theory and concepts



Ackerman, E. (1959); Agrasot, P., D. Tabutin and E. Thiltges

(1991); Arizpe, L., P. Stone and D. Major, (forthcoming); Arizpe,

L., and M. Velazquez (forthcoming); Bardhan, P. (1988); Barlow, R.,

and others (1992); Bilsborrow, R. (1987); Bilsborrow, R. (1992a);

Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992); Blaikie, P. (1985); Blaikie,

P. (forthcoming); Boserup, E. (1965); Boserup, E. (1976); Boserup,

E. (1981); Chayanov, A. (1966); Cigno, A. (1985); Davis, K. (1963);

Drake, W. (1993); Duncan, O. (1964); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren

(1971); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren (1974); Geertz, C. (1968);

Ghai, D. (1992); Hardin, G. (1968); Hardin, G. (1993); Hawley, A.

H. (1986); Hogan, D. (1987); Hogan, D. (1987); Hogan, D. (1989);

Hogan, D. (1992a); Hogan, D. (1993a); Hogan, D. (1993b); Izazola,

H. (1992); Jackson, C. (forthcoming); Jacobson, H., and M. Price

(1990); Jolly, C. (1991); Kelly, A. C. (1988); Keyfitz, N. (1991a);

Keyfitz, N. (1991c); Keyfitz, N. (1991d); Keyfitz, N. (1993a);

Keyfitz, N. (1993b); Keyfitz, N. (forthcoming); Lee, R. (1991);

Leff, E. (1993); Lele, U., and S. W. Stone (1989); Lindauer, M.,

and A. Schopf, eds. (1987); Lutz, W. (forthcoming); Lutz, W., L.

Arizpe and R. Costanza (1991); Malthus, T. (1798 and 1803,

republished 1960); Marquette, C. (1993); McNicoll, G. (1990);

McNicoll, G. (1991); McNicoll, G. (1992); McNicoll, G. (1993);

Palloni, A. (1992); Perrings, C. (1989); Pingali, P., and H.

Binswanger (1987); Pingali, P., and H. Binswanger (1988); Robinson,

W., and W. Schutjer (1984); Rosenzweig, M., H. Binswanger and J.

McIntire (1988); Ruttan, V. (forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and Y.

Hayami (1991); Sanderson, W. C. (1992); Schmink, M., and C. Wood

(1993); Shaw, P. (1989a); Shaw, P. (1989b); Shaw, P. (1989c); Shaw,

P. (1992); Simon, J. (1981); Simon, J. (1990); Singh, J., ed.

(1985); Tudela, F. (1992); United Nations Economic and Social

Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) (1989); Wood, C.

(1993b); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993).





Migration



Bilsborrow, R. (1992a); Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and

P. DeLargy (1991); Clawson, D. L. (1982); Collins, J. (1987);

Collins, J. L. (1986); Cruz, M. (1991); Cruz, M. (1993); Cruz, M.,

and others (1992); Cruz, W., and M. Cruz (1990); David, R. (1993);

Donnor, W. (1987); El-Hinnawi, E. (1985); Gould, B. (forthcoming);

Hardoy, J., and D. Satterthwaite (1985); Hardoy, J. E., and D.

Satterthwaite (1989); Hazarika, S. (1993); Hogan, D. (1988a);

Hogan, D. (1988b); Hogan, D. (1992b); Homer-Dixon, T., J. Boutwell

and G. Rathjens (1993); International Organization for Migration

(IOM), and Refugee Policy Group (RPG) (1992); Jacobson, J. (1988);

Kavanagh, B., and S. Lonergan (1992); Kritz, M. (1990); Low, B. S.,

and A. Clarke (1993); Martine, G. (1988); Moran, E. (1982); Moran,

E. (1990); Richmond, A. (1993a); Richmond, A. (1993b); Rudel, T.

(1983); Rudel, T., and B. Horowitz (1993b); Sawyer, D. (1987);

Sawyer, D. (1993); Schmink, M. (1988); Schmink, M., and Wood, C.

(1993); Shrestha, N. (1982); Shrestha, N. (1989); Shrestha, N.

(1990); Shrestha, N., and D. Conway (1985); Simon, J. (1990);

Suhrke, A. (1993); Vayda, A. (1983); Wood, C. (1993a); Wood, C.,

and M. Schmink (1993); World Bank (1988).



Women



Agarwal, B. (1985); Agarwal, B. (1986a); Agarwal, B. (1986b);

Agarwal, B. (1988); Agarwal, B. (1991); Agarwal, B. (forthcoming);

Ajaegbu, H. I. (1993); Ardayfio-Schandorf, E. (1993); Camp, S.

(1993); Darklener, I. (1988); David, R. (1993); Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1987); FAO

(1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1991); FAO (1992); Jackson, C.

(forthcoming); Jacobson, J. (1992); Kumar, S., and D. Hotchkiss

(1988); Merchant, C. (1990); Paolisso, M., and S. W. Yudelman

(1991); Rodda, A. (1991); Sen, G. (forthcoming); Shaw, P. (1989b);





Poverty and development



Agarwal, B. (1986b); Benedick, R. (1988); Bilsborrow, R. (1987);

Bilsborrow, R. (1992c); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);

Bromley, D. (1989); Brookfield, H. (1981); Browder, J. (1989);

Camp, S. (1991); Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP)

(1993); Downing, T., and others, eds. (1992); Durning, A. (1989);

Foweraker, J. (1981); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989); Geertz, C.

(1968); Ghosh, P. K., ed. (1984); Hogan, D., and P. Burian (1993);

Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock (1987); International Labour

Office (1991); Johnson, G., and R. Lee, eds. (1987); Jones, G.

(1993); Karshenas, M. (1992); Kelly, A. C. (1988); Keyfitz, N.

(1991b); Keyfitz, N. (1993c); Ledec, G. (1985); Lee, R. (1991);

Lee, R., and others, eds. (1988); Lele, U. (1991); Leonard, H.

(1987); Leonard, H. (1989); Leonard, J., ed. (1985); Little, P.

(forthcoming); Lutz, W. (1991); MacKellar, F. (1992); Martine, G.

(1992); Martine, G., ed. (1993a); Martine, G. (1993b); McNicoll,

G., and M. Cain, eds. (1989); Ministerio de Obras Publicas y

Urbanismo de Mexico (MOPU) (1990); Mink, S. D. (1993); Moran, E.

(1981); Njoka, B. (1991); Painter, M. (1987); Palo, M. (1990);

Paolisso, M., and S. W. Yudelman (1991); Pearce, D., and E. Barbier

(1990); Perrings, C. (1989); Plumwood, V., and R. Routley (1982);

Pudasaini, S. (1993); Repetto, R. (1985); Ridker, R. G. (1979);

Ridker, R. G. (1979); Ruttan, V. (forthcoming); Ruttan, V. W., and

Y. Hayami (1991); Sawyer, D. (1987); Schmink, M. (forthcoming);

Sen, G. (forthcoming); Southgate, D., and M. Whitaker

(forthcoming); Srinivasan, R. N. (1992); Stonich, S. (1989);

Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) (1991); Tudela,

F., ed. (1989); Tudela, F. (1992); Tudela, F. (1993); United

Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

(ESCAP) (1992); ESCAP (1991); United Nations Educational,

Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (1992); Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (1991); United

Nations Secretariat (1992); Utting, P. (1991); Vainer, C. (1993);

van den Oever, P. (1990); van den Oever, P. (1992); World Resources

Institute, and Brookings Institution (1993); World Resources

Institute, and others (1992).



Policy



Arcia, G. (1990); Arcia, G. (1992); Asian Development Bank (1992);

Benedick, R. (1991); Bilsborrow, R., and M. Geores (1992);

Bilsborrow, R., and P. Stupp (forthcoming); Blaikie, P. (1985);

Brundtland, G. (1990); Camp, S., and others (1992); Corporacion

Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) (1993); Durning, A. (1989);

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

(1987); Foy, G., and H. Daly (1989); Gregersen, H. (1992);

Horowitz, M., and M. Salem-Murdock (1987); Jones, J. (1992);

Kanaskar Thapa, K. (1992); Kim, O., and P. van den Oever (1992);

Ledec, G. (1985); Leonard, J., ed. (1985); Lopez, M. E. (1987);

May, J. (1993); McIntosh, A. (1993); McNicoll, G., and M. Cain,

eds. (1989); Moran, E. (1981); National Wildlife Federation (1993);

Ornas, A. and M. A. Salih, eds. (1989); Panayotou, T., and C.

Parasuk (1990); Pearce, D., and E. Barbier (1990); Population

Resource Center (1992); Pudasaini, S. (1993); Repetto, R. (1985);

Rudel, T. (1993a); Schmink, M., and C. Wood (1987); Shrestha, N.,

and D. Conway (1985); Singh, J., ed. (1985); Southgate, D., and C.

Runge (1990); Southgate, D., and M. Whitaker (forthcoming);

Stonich, S., and B. DeWalt (1989); Suhrke, A. (1993); The Royal

Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Swedish Council for Planning and

Coordination of Research (1991); Thiesenhusen, W. (1989);

Thiesenhusen, W. (1991); Tiffen, M., and M. Mortimore (1992);

Tuchman Mathews, J., ed. (1990); Tudela, F., ed. (1989); United

Nations (1993); United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural

Organization (UNESCO) (1993);  Vainer, C. (1993); Wirosuhardjo, L.

(1991); Wirosuhardjo, K. (1993); Wood, C., and M. Schmink (1993);

World Resources Institute, and Brookings Institution (1993); Xenos,

P. (1993).





Health impacts



Bradley, D., and others (1992); Camp, S. (1991); Drummond, D.

(1975); Feldman, A. (1990); Ferreira, C. (1992); Grosse, S. (1993);

Heilig, G. (1992); Kumar, S., and D. Hotchkiss (1988); Low, B. S.,

and A. Clarke (1993); Sanchez, V., M. Castillejos and L. Bracho

(1989); Sawyer, P. (1992); United Nations Environment Programme

(UNEP) (1982); UNEP (1987); World Health Organization, Commission

on Health and Environment (WCHE) (forthcoming).





General overview



Arizpe, L., P. Stone and D. Major, (forthcoming); Bandyopadhyay,

J., and others (1985); Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield, eds. (1987);

Brown, L. (1988); Brown, L., and others (1976); Brundtland, G.

(1990); Calhoun, J., and D. Ahuja (1979); Clarke, J., ed. (1992);

Clarke, J., and D. Rhind (1991); Commoner, B. (1991); Commoner, B.

(1992); Consortium for International Earth Science Information

Network (CIESIN) (1992); Dahlan, M. A. (1991); Davis, K., and M.

Bernstam, eds. (1991); Davis, Kingsley, Mikhail Bernstam and H.

Sellers, eds. (1989); De Sherbinin, A. (1993); Di Castri, F., M.

Hadley and J. Damlamian (1981); Dietz, T. (1993); Eckholm, E.

(1976); Ehrlich, P. (1968); Ehrlich, P., and A. Ehrlich (1977);

Ehrlich, P., and A. Ehrlich (1990); Ehrlich, P., A. Ehrlich and G.

Daily (1993); Ehrlich, P., and J. Holdren (1971); Ehrlich, P., and

J. Holdren (1974); Espenshade, T. (1991); Gendreau, F., and others,

eds. (forthcoming); Ghai, D. (1992); Gleave, B. (forthcoming);

Gwynne, M. and, D. Mooneyhan (1989); Hance, W. (1975); Hardin, G.

(1968); Hardin, G. (1993); Harrison, P. (1992); Heilig, G. (1993);

Hempel, M., and C. Lloyd (1990); Hinrichs, N., ed. (1971); Hossain,

M. (1991); Hossain, M. (1992); Izazola, H., and S. Lerner, eds.

(1993); Jiggens, J. (1993); Johnson, G., and R. Lee, eds. (1987);

Jolly, C., and B. Torrey, eds. (forthcoming); Joshi, S., ed.

(1986); Kasperson, J., R. Kasperson and B. Turner (forthcoming);

Kavanagh, B., and S. Lonergan (1992); Keyfitz, N. (1993c); Leonard,

H. (1989); Lindauer, M., and A. Schopf, eds. (1987); Little, P.,

and M. Horowitz, eds. (1987); Lutz, W. (1992); Lutz, W. (1993);

Lutz, W., L. Arizpe and R. Costanza (1991); MacKellar, F., and D.

Vining (1987); Man in the Biosphere (MAB) Programme (1987);

McNicoll, G. (1992); Myers, N. (1989); Myers, N. (1992); Ness, G.,

W. Drake and S. Brechin, eds. (1993); Palloni, A. (1992); Pickett,

S. (forthcoming); Population Information Program (1992); Population

Resource Center (1992); Ramana, D. V. (1984); Repetto, R. (1985);

Repetto, R. (1987); Repetto, R. (1989b); Revelle, R. (1974);

Richards, J., E. Flint and R. Daniels (forthcoming); Rudel, T.

(1991); Shaw, P. (1989a); Shaw, P. (1993); Steinmann, G. (1988);

Stern, P. (1993); Stern, P., R. Oran and D. Druckman, eds. (1992);

Teitelbaum, M. (1992); Tinbergen, J. (1975); Turner, B., and

others, eds. (1990); United Nations (1984); United Nations (1987);

United Nations (1989); United Nations (1991); United Nations

(1992); United Nations (1993); United Nations Secretariat (1980);

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

(UNESCO) (1984); UNESCO, and Man in the Biosphere (MAB) Project

(1992); United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (1991); United

Nations Secretariat (1984); United Nations Secretariat (1992);

Vaugelade, J. (1990); World Bank (1992); World Resources Institute,

and others (1992); Zaba, B. (1991); Zaba, B., and J. Clarke (1992);

Zaba, B., and J. Clarke, eds. (forthcoming); Zinn, F., S. Brechin

and G. Ness (1993).





Climate and air



Andreade, M. (1991); Arrhenius, E., and T. Waltz (1990); Birdsall,

N. (1992); Bongaarts, J. (1992); Cowling, E. (1991); Glantz, M.

(1991); Kritz, M. (1990); National Academy of Science (1991);

Population Council (1991); Smil, V. (1990); Smil, V. (1991); United

Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (1982).



Biodiversity



Ledec, G., and R. Goodland, eds. (1988); McNeely, J., and others,

eds. (1990); Myers, N. (1979); Myers, N. (1988); Myers, N. (1989);

Myers, N. (1989); Myers, N. (1991); Perrings, C. (1989); Wilson, E.

(1989).



Energy



Bradley, P., N. Chavangi and A. Van Gelder (1985); Cline-Cole, R.

(1987); Cline-Cole, R., H. Main and J. Nichol (1990); Holdren, J.

P. (1989); Kolsrud, G., and B. B. Torrey (1991); Lovins, A. (1991);

Moss, R., and W. Morgan (1981); Richards, J., E. Flint and R.

Daniels (forthcoming); Rybakovsky, L. (1992); Vainer, C. (1993).




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