Global Climate Change

The question of climate change continues to generate heated debate worldwide, as negotiations proceed to work out details of the Kyoto Protocol. The prospect of rising temperatures and sea levels, with impacts on people and ecosystems, is spurring governments to seek effective international action-but they face concerns about the economic and political costs. This fact sheet addresses some common questions and misconceptions.

Is climate change really something to worry about?

* "An increasing body of observation gives a collective picture of a warming world," with "new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities," according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a worldwide network of 2,500 leading scientists and experts sponsored by the UN.

* These scientists project a global warming of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C (2.5-10.4 F) as soon as 2100-the fastest rate of change since the end of the last ice age. Sea levels could rise by 9-88 cm by 2100, according to the IPCC, causing widespread flooding of low-lying costal areas and islands. A one-metre rise would displace 70 million people in Bangladesh, for example, and submerge 80 per cent of the Marshall Islands. It would also threaten the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts of the United States, and the coastal zone on which Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya sit in Japan. Salt water could intrude on rivers and coastal areas, affecting freshwater supplies and fishing.

* Rainfall patterns would change, increasing the threat of drought or floods, and a more variable climate would bring more "extreme weather events," such as intense storms and heat waves-of the kind that have caused hundreds of casualties in the US Southwest and Midwest regions since 1995. Tropical diseases like malaria would spread, as mosquitoes and other carriers expand into new areas. Farming would be seriously disrupted, with falling crop yields in many regions.

Is climate change already happening?

Many shifts in the global climate, while not proven to be caused by human-induced climate change, conform to scientists' projections:

* Records show a warming of 0.2 to 0.6 degrees C in global average temperature in the 20th century, and a rise in sea levels of 10 to 20 cm. The 1990s has been the warmest decade on record, and 1998 was the warmest year on record.

* Rainfall has increased by 5-10% over the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere, according to IPCC, but has decreased in North and West Africa and parts of the Mediterranean. Summers have been drier, with droughts in some areas; in parts of Asia and Africa, droughts have been more frequent and more intense in the last decades.

* The North Pole sea-ice has thinned by 40% in recent decades in summer and autumn, and decreased in extent by 10-15% since the 1950s in spring and summer. Global snow cover has shrunk by 10% since the 1960s, and mountain glaciers have sharply retreated. The Northern Hemisphere has seen earlier plant flowering, earlier bird arrival and earlier emergence of insects, IPCC said.

Which countries are most responsible for climate change?

Industrialized countries, with roughly 20% of the global population, account for 60% of annual emissions of carbon dioxide, and the biggest emitter, the United States, alone accounts for over 20%. Of cumulative CO2 emissions from 1950 to 1992-these gases stay in the atmosphere for years-industrialized countries account for 74% and the US for 28%. Emissions by developing countries, although growing rapidly, are not expected to equal those of industrialized countries until 2035.

Who is required to do what by the convention on climate change?

A key principle of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change-ratified by 186 nations-is that developed countries should take the lead since they are responsible for the bulk of past and present emissions. The 41 industrialized countries listed in Annex I of the Convention agreed to a voluntary aim of returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000-a goal that many did not meet. In less specific terms, all parties to the treaty agreed to mitigate climate change by, for example, promoting climate-friendly technologies.

Why was the Kyoto Protocol negotiated? What will it do?

When they adopted the Convention, governments knew that its commitments would not be sufficient to tackle climate change. States parties therefore launched a new round of talks to decide on stronger and more detailed commitments for industrialized countries. The outcome was the Protocol to the Convention agreed in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. The Protocol contains legally binding targets by which developed countries must reduce their combined emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5% by the period 2008-2012, calculated as an average over those five years. Cuts in the three most important gases-carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide-will be measured primarily against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived industrial gases-hydroflourocarbons, perflourocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride-can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below 1990 levels, the Protocol will result in 2010 emissions levels that are about 20% below what they would have been in the absence of the Protocol.

What reduction targets did individual countries accept in Kyoto?

Governments accepted a "differentiated" target, which allowed developed countries to negotiate individual targets yielding overall at least a 5% reduction in emissions. The European Union accepted an 8% reduction, and has apportioned out targets to its member countries. The United States agreed to a 7% reduction, and Japan to a 6% cut. The Russian Federation agreed to merely stabilize emissions at 1990 levels, and some countries, like Australia and Iceland, were allowed to increase emissions.

What are some of the key issues still up for negotiation?

A breakthrough in negotiations occurred in 2001, when States parties agreed on crucial points, such as a "clean development mechanism"- by which industrialized countries will receive credit toward their emissions targets if their government agencies or private corporations finance or carry out emissions-reduction projects in developing countries-and an international "emissions trading" regime that will allow industrialized countries to buy and sell emission credits among themselves. The rules of operation of these mechanisms must now be worked out. Also under debate is whether there should be a limit on how many credits a country can buy or sell.

Another concern is that certain countries will be able to meet their targets with minimal effort and could then sell large quantities of emission credits (known as "hot air") to others, reducing pressure on some industrialized countries to cut domestic emissions. Future issues also include reintegrating the United States in the global negotiations and engaging developing countries more in the objectives of the Convention. Negotiations are continuing in the sessions of the Conference of Parties to the Climate Change Convention, which meets annually.

What about participation by developing countries?

The legally binding emissions commitments under the Kyoto Protocol apply only to developed countries, leaving to the future the question of similar commitments for developing countries. Constituencies in some developed countries feel that a lack of legally binding commitments by developing countries would place their own industries at a competitive disadvantage and undermine the effectiveness of the Protocol. But many developing countries resist formal commitments, even if voluntary, that would put a limit on their emissions, noting that their per capita emissions are still low compared to those of industrialized countries. Some developing countries have indicated a willingness to consider the issue, as long as industrialized countries deliver on their promise to lead and responsibilities are shared equitably. Developing countries have other strong incentives to adopt cleaner energy alternatives-and some have already started-since serious air quality problems are affecting human health and the environment.

In 2001, States parties established a special climate change fund and a fund for least developed countries to help developing countries adapt to climate change impacts, obtain clean technologies, and limit emission growth. They also established an Adaptation Fund to finance adaptation projects and programmes. Many developed countries also pledged to contribute $410 million per year by 2005 to help developing countries manage their emissions and adapt to climate change.

What is the position of the private sector on climate change?

Many industries dependent on fossil fuels fear that action to reduce emissions will lower profits and slow economic growth. But many domestic policy options under debate would seek to work positively through incentives to minimize economic impact. Also, international mechanisms such as emissions trading aim to reduce the cost of meeting targets. Various major corporations see the opportunity to profit by building more competitive, energy-efficient industries for the long term, and by capitalizing on the growing market for clean energy and technologies. Leading corporations have recognized the risks of climate change and are taking action in their area of activities.

When will the Kyoto Protocol become legally binding?

The Protocol will enter into force after it has been ratified by 55 countries, which must include developed country parties accounting for at least 55% of 1990 global carbon dioxide emissions. Shares of 1990 carbon dioxide emissions include: United States, 36.1%; European Union, 24.2%; Russian Federation, 17.4%; and Japan, 8.5%. More than 90 countries have ratified the Protocol-including all European Union members and Japan.

Once the Protocol enters into force, attention will shift to the implementation of its legally-binding emissions targets. The hope is that these targets will help to finally rein in the persistently rising emissions of many industrialized countries. For its part, the Convention-including its fundamental obligation on all parties to respond to climate change-will continue to serve as the focus for intergovernmental action to combat climate change for both developing countries and Annex I parties who do not ratify the Protocol.

On climate change, see http://unfccc.int

For information, contact the UN Public Inquiries Unit: tel. (212) 963-4475; media inquiries: (212) 963-7160

Published by the United Nations Department of Public Information - DPI/1753/Rev.19-August 2002


		The question of climate change continues to generate heated debate worldwide, as negotiations proceed to work out details of the Kyoto Protocol. The prospect of rising temperatures and sea levels, with impacts on people and ecosystems, is spurring governments to seek effective international action-but they face concerns about the economic and political costs. This fact sheet addresses some common questions and misconceptions. Is climate change really something to worry about? * "An increasing body of observation gives a collective picture of a warming world," with "new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities," according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a worldwide network of 2,500 leading scientists and experts sponsored by the UN. * These scientists project a global warming of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C (2.5-10.4 F) as soon as 2100-the fastest rate of change since the end of the last ice age. Sea levels could rise by 9-88 cm by 2100, according to the IPCC, causing widespread flooding of low-lying costal areas and islands. A one-metre rise would displace 70 million people in Bangladesh, for example, and submerge 80 per cent of the Marshall Islands. It would also threaten the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts of the United States, and the coastal zone on which Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya sit in Japan. Salt water could intrude on rivers and coastal areas, affecting freshwater supplies and fishing. * Rainfall patterns would change, increasing the threat of drought or floods, and a more variable climate would bring more "extreme weather events," such as intense storms and heat waves-of the kind that have caused hundreds of casualties in the US Southwest and Midwest regions since 1995. Tropical diseases like malaria would spread, as mosquitoes and other carriers expand into new areas. Farming would be seriously disrupted, with falling crop yields in many regions. Is climate change already happening? Many shifts in the global climate, while not proven to be caused by human-induced climate change, conform to scientists' projections: * Records show a warming of 0.2 to 0.6 degrees C in global average temperature in the 20th century, and a rise in sea levels of 10 to 20 cm. The 1990s has been the warmest decade on record, and 1998 was the warmest year on record. * Rainfall has increased by 5-10% over the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere, according to IPCC, but has decreased in North and West Africa and parts of the Mediterranean. Summers have been drier, with droughts in some areas; in parts of Asia and Africa, droughts have been more frequent and more intense in the last decades. * The North Pole sea-ice has thinned by 40% in recent decades in summer and autumn, and decreased in extent by 10-15% since the 1950s in spring and summer. Global snow cover has shrunk by 10% since the 1960s, and mountain glaciers have sharply retreated. The Northern Hemisphere has seen earlier plant flowering, earlier bird arrival and earlier emergence of insects, IPCC said. Which countries are most responsible for climate change? Industrialized countries, with roughly 20% of the global population, account for 60% of annual emissions of carbon dioxide, and the biggest emitter, the United States, alone accounts for over 20%. Of cumulative CO2 emissions from 1950 to 1992-these gases stay in the atmosphere for years-industrialized countries account for 74% and the US for 28%. Emissions by developing countries, although growing rapidly, are not expected to equal those of industrialized countries until 2035. Who is required to do what by the convention on climate change? A key principle of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change-ratified by 186 nations-is that developed countries should take the lead since they are responsible for the bulk of past and present emissions. The 41 industrialized countries listed in Annex I of the Convention agreed to a voluntary aim of returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000-a goal that many did not meet. In less specific terms, all parties to the treaty agreed to mitigate climate change by, for example, promoting climate-friendly technologies. Why was the Kyoto Protocol negotiated? What will it do? When they adopted the Convention, governments knew that its commitments would not be sufficient to tackle climate change. States parties therefore launched a new round of talks to decide on stronger and more detailed commitments for industrialized countries. The outcome was the Protocol to the Convention agreed in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. The Protocol contains legally binding targets by which developed countries must reduce their combined emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5% by the period 2008-2012, calculated as an average over those five years. Cuts in the three most important gases-carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide-will be measured primarily against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived industrial gases-hydroflourocarbons, perflourocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride-can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below 1990 levels, the Protocol will result in 2010 emissions levels that are about 20% below what they would have been in the absence of the Protocol. What reduction targets did individual countries accept in Kyoto? Governments accepted a "differentiated" target, which allowed developed countries to negotiate individual targets yielding overall at least a 5% reduction in emissions. The European Union accepted an 8% reduction, and has apportioned out targets to its member countries. The United States agreed to a 7% reduction, and Japan to a 6% cut. The Russian Federation agreed to merely stabilize emissions at 1990 levels, and some countries, like Australia and Iceland, were allowed to increase emissions. What are some of the key issues still up for negotiation? A breakthrough in negotiations occurred in 2001, when States parties agreed on crucial points, such as a "clean development mechanism"- by which industrialized countries will receive credit toward their emissions targets if their government agencies or private corporations finance or carry out emissions-reduction projects in developing countries-and an international "emissions trading" regime that will allow industrialized countries to buy and sell emission credits among themselves. The rules of operation of these mechanisms must now be worked out. Also under debate is whether there should be a limit on how many credits a country can buy or sell. Another concern is that certain countries will be able to meet their targets with minimal effort and could then sell large quantities of emission credits (known as "hot air") to others, reducing pressure on some industrialized countries to cut domestic emissions. Future issues also include reintegrating the United States in the global negotiations and engaging developing countries more in the objectives of the Convention. Negotiations are continuing in the sessions of the Conference of Parties to the Climate Change Convention, which meets annually. What about participation by developing countries? The legally binding emissions commitments under the Kyoto Protocol apply only to developed countries, leaving to the future the question of similar commitments for developing countries. Constituencies in some developed countries feel that a lack of legally binding commitments by developing countries would place their own industries at a competitive disadvantage and undermine the effectiveness of the Protocol. But many developing countries resist formal commitments, even if voluntary, that would put a limit on their emissions, noting that their per capita emissions are still low compared to those of industrialized countries. Some developing countries have indicated a willingness to consider the issue, as long as industrialized countries deliver on their promise to lead and responsibilities are shared equitably. Developing countries have other strong incentives to adopt cleaner energy alternatives-and some have already started-since serious air quality problems are affecting human health and the environment. In 2001, States parties established a special climate change fund and a fund for least developed countries to help developing countries adapt to climate change impacts, obtain clean technologies, and limit emission growth. They also established an Adaptation Fund to finance adaptation projects and programmes. Many developed countries also pledged to contribute $410 million per year by 2005 to help developing countries manage their emissions and adapt to climate change. What is the position of the private sector on climate change? Many industries dependent on fossil fuels fear that action to reduce emissions will lower profits and slow economic growth. But many domestic policy options under debate would seek to work positively through incentives to minimize economic impact. Also, international mechanisms such as emissions trading aim to reduce the cost of meeting targets. Various major corporations see the opportunity to profit by building more competitive, energy-efficient industries for the long term, and by capitalizing on the growing market for clean energy and technologies. Leading corporations have recognized the risks of climate change and are taking action in their area of activities. When will the Kyoto Protocol become legally binding? The Protocol will enter into force after it has been ratified by 55 countries, which must include developed country parties accounting for at least 55% of 1990 global carbon dioxide emissions. Shares of 1990 carbon dioxide emissions include: United States, 36.1%; European Union, 24.2%; Russian Federation, 17.4%; and Japan, 8.5%. More than 90 countries have ratified the Protocol-including all European Union members and Japan. Once the Protocol enters into force, attention will shift to the implementation of its legally-binding emissions targets. The hope is that these targets will help to finally rein in the persistently rising emissions of many industrialized countries. For its part, the Convention-including its fundamental obligation on all parties to respond to climate change-will continue to serve as the focus for intergovernmental action to combat climate change for both developing countries and Annex I parties who do not ratify the Protocol. On climate change, see http://unfccc.int For information, contact the UN Public Inquiries Unit: tel. (212) 963-4475; media inquiries: (212) 963-7160 Published by the United Nations Department of Public Information - DPI/1753/Rev.19-August 2002 Visit the United Nations homepage