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Population projections


Manual VIII. Methods for projections of urban and rural population
United Nations (1974). Manual VIII. Methods for projections of urban and rural population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.74.XIII.3).

This Manual is addressed mainly to population analysts possessing limited technical means especially with a view to its uses in less developed countries. While it does not rely on computer technology, the suggested methods may be applied using simple software. The projections of urban and rural population are explained on the assumption that methods of projection of a country's total population, or its total population by groups of sex and age, are already known, and that such projections have in fact already been implemented. Those methods have been dealt with in Manual III. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the appraisal of accuracy in basic statistics, a subject elaborated in Manual II.  Manual VIII is also related to Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning.

Preface and table of contents (133 KB)
Chapter I. Problems of definition of urban population (403 KB)
Chapter II. Components of urban and rural population change (766 KB)
Chapter III. Tempo of urbanization and urban concentration (537 KB)
Chapter IV. Projection of urban and rural population totals using the simplest methods (273 KB)
Chapter V. United Nations method of urban and rural population projections (575 KB)
Chapter VI. Projections for individual cities, groups of cities and distinct groups of localities (658 KB)
Chapter VII. Supplementary estimation of sex-age composition for projected totals of urban and rural population (808 KB)
Chapter VIII. Mixed projection methods (759 KB)
Chapter IX. Cohort-survival method (2072 KB)
Annexes (434 KB)

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Related links:
Manual III. Methods for population projections by sex and age

Projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. Module I: Conceptual issues and methods for preparing demographic projections

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