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Population projections


Manual III. Methods for population projections by sex and age
United Nations (1956). Manual III. Methods for population projections by sex and age (United Nations publication,
Sales No. 56.XIII.3).

This Manual deals with deals with methods of producing population projections, including for countries where the available statistics are incomplete or unreliable. In this manual, the methods are described in detail and their application under various conditions is illustrated. A specific example is presented and carried through all the successive steps in the making of a population projection. Manual III is closely related to other manuals of this cluster, as well as to most manuals of the clusters Demographic estimation and Demographic models.

Preface and table of contents (133 KB)
Chapter I. General considerations (513 KB)
Chapter II. Estimation of base population by sex and age (1208 KB)
Chapter III. Some concepts of abridged life tables and life-table construction (670 KB)
Chapter IV. Estimating current levels and future trends of survival ratios with the use of model life tables (1072 KB)
Chapter V. Estimation of current level and future trend of fertility (1127 KB)
Chapter VI. Computation of the population projection: the example of Costa Rica (340 KB)
Chapter VII. Migration (648 KB)
Chapter VIII. Additional estimates derived from population projections (229 KB)
Chapter IX. Revision of population projections (169 KB)
Appendix (782 KB)

Download the report (zipped file)

Related links:
Manual VIII. Methods for projections of urban and rural population
Projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. Module I: Conceptual issues and methods for preparing demographic projections
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