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Demographic estimates


Manual X. Indirect techniques for demographic estimation
United Nations (1983). Manual X: Indirect techniques for demographic estimation (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.83.XIII.2).

This report is an aid to demographers and population experts to carry out the best possible evaluation and exploitation of data sources, especially those that are incomplete or deficient. Manual X describes a wide range of time-tested techniques to make indirect estimates of demographic parameters. Each of the techniques presented is based on a mathematical model and explained in easy-to-follow examples.

Preface and table of contents (1130 KB)
Introduction (754 KB)
Chapter I. Demographic models (1152 KB)
Chapter II. Estimation of fertility based on information about children ever born (3509 KB)
Chapter III. Estimation of child mortality from information on children ever born and children surviving (1625 KB)
Chapter IV. Estimation of adult survivorship probabilities from information on orphanhood and widowhood (2325 KB)
Chapter V. Estimation of adult mortality from information on the distribution of deaths by age (1324 KB)
Chapter VI. Derivation of a smooth life table from a set of survivorship probabilities (645 KB)
Chapter VII. Fertility and mortality estimation using model stable age distributions (1456 KB)
Chapter VIII. Estimation of fertility by reverse-survival methods (1205 KB)
Chapter IX. Estimation of adult mortality using successive census age distributions (1862 KB)
Annexes (4601 KB)

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