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United Nations Demographic Manuals On-line

Demographic estimates


Manual I. Methods for estimating total population for current dates
United Nations (1952). Manual I: Methods for estimating total population for current dates (United Nations Publications, Sales No. 52.XIII.5).

This report is an aid to demographers and population experts to analyze censuses that became universal operations providing crucial information on national populations. However, the reliability and completeness of census results remain uneven and in several countries only one census has been implemented. This is the main reason why the census-based methods of estimating population size and particularly the methods for adjusting incomplete and deficient census data and extrapolating census results presented in Manual I, which has been compiled in the 1950s, remain relevant. The techniques to use incomplete and deficient data for estimating other demographic parameters from censuses and other sources are presented in Manuals II and IV.


Preface and table of contents
Introduction (273 KB)
Chapter I. Considerations of quality in population estimates (517 KB)
Chapter II. Conjectural estimates (743 KB)
Chapter III. Estimates based on the results of incomplete censuses and noncensal counts (687 KB)
Chapter IV. Estimates based on one census only (274 KB)
Chapter V. Estimates derived by extrapolation of census results (811 KB)
Chapter VI. Estimates based on censuses, vital registers and records of migration (285 KB)
Chapter VII. Balances derived from continuous population registers (85 KB)

Appendices (229 KB)

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Related links:

Manual II. Methods of appraisal of quality of basic data for population estimates
Manual IV. Methods of estimating basic demographic measures from incomplete data

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