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World Population Prospects:
The 2000 Revision
Volume III

Analytical Report




A. Key results of the 2000 Revision
B. Assumptions underlying the 2000 Revision
C. A comparison of the 1998 Revision and the 2000 Revision
D. Organization of the rest of the report


I. The transition to low fertility and its implications for the future

A. Comparing the fertility transition in different groups of countries
B. The future of the fertility transition
C. The fertility transition at the regional level
D. The fertility contribution to population growth
E. Age patterns of fertility

II. Past and future trends in mortality

A. The mortality transition in the second part of the twentieth century
B. Future prospects for the transition to low mortality
C. From past to future: an overview
D. Mortality in childhood
E. From deaths to death rates

III.       The demographic impact of AIDS

A. Estimating and projecting the impact of HIV/AIDS
B. The past and future evolution of the HIV epidemic
C. The impact of the AIDS epidemic
D. Conclusion

IV.       International migration

A. The contribution of international migration to population growth
B.The distribution of countries according to net international migration levels

V.          Population size and composition

A. The growth of the world population
B. Population dynamics in the major areas of the world
C. Population growth at the regional level
D. The dynamics of population growth at the country level
E. The changing age distribution of the world population
F.Population ageing at the regional level
G. The implications of ageing populations
H. The oldest old

VI.       Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections

A. The revision of past estimates of population dynamics
B. The assumptions made in projecting fertility
C. The assumptions made in projecting mortality
D. The projection of international migration

VII.     Sources of data and demographic methods


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