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Why use it?$Hans Lofgren World Bank Presentation for the Workshop of the UNDP  UNDESA  World Bank  LAS Project  Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in the Arab Region , Cairo, April 2-5, 2007BZ2Z Introduction@Outline of presentation Issues in MDG strategy analysis  what an analytical framework should consider MAMS Ethiopia application Research agenda / conclusions f !    L*"1. Issues in MDG strategy analysis##"$Context: Scope: The MDGs are broad, providing targets related to most aspects of development: poverty, education, health, and the environment. Time frame: The MDGs apply to 2015. However, what happens before and after this year is also important. Institutional complexity: Reaching the MDGs requires effective government functioning (spending allocation, program design, service delivery, etc.) Methodology: It is a huge challenge to develop methods that can address questions about design, effects, and costs of alternative MDG strategies.  P$0P< """ "[  ""z" ""%Features of an MDG analytic framework&&"$A framework for analysis of MDG strategies should consider the following factors: Synergies between different MDGs Role of non-government service providers Demand-side conditions (incentives, infrastructure, incomes) Role of economic growth Macro consequences of increased public spending and/or foreign aid Increasing marginal cost Unit service costs may rise with input costs (wages)@SZ00 Z(S"0"[4Inherent complexity"$Multi-sectoral economy-wide nature of MDG challenge implies inherently complex ex-ante evaluation and strategic frameworks A simple first approach establishes feasible strategies and evaluate costs in an fixed-coefficient fixed-price framework (UNMP) This framework does not consider important factors influencing the design of MDG strategies it is limited and possibly misleadingZ0Z2<""."'.                           2. MAMS$The World Bank has developed MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations)  an extended, dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model designed for MDG analysis. MAMS is complementary to and draws extensively on sector and econometric research on MDGs. Motivation behind the design of MAMS: An economywide, dynamic-recursive, flexible-price model Standard CGE models provide a good starting point But CGE approach must be complemented by and articulated with a satisfactory representation of 'social sectors'. j*0Z(0Z(F"""'")""                     Q-.Features of MAMS$[Features: Most features are familiar from standard open-economy, dynamic-recursive CGE models. Extensions introduced to capture the processes that generate MDG outcomes. MAMS typically covers MDGs 1 (poverty), 2 (primary school completion), 4 (under-five mortality rate), 5 (maternal mortality rate), 7a (water access), and 7b (sanitation access).6 R U"  Government $?Treatment of government in MAMS: The main originality of MAMS compared to standard CGEs is the inclusion of (MDG-related) social services and their impact on the rest of the economy. These services are produced using labor, intermediate inputs, and capital (fixed coefficients for capital, intermediate inputs, and aggregate labor; flexible coefficients for disaggregated labor). Together with other determinants, they determine the "production" of MDGs Model tracks government domestic and foreign debt stocks (including foreign debt relief) and related interest payments. ^! 2 2!Y*yS  MDG  production $0MDGs are modeled as being  produced by a combination of factors or determinants (table following) using a (reduced) functional form that permits: Imposition of limits (maximum or minimum) given by logic or country experiences Replication of base-year values and elasticities Calibration of a reference time path for the provision of services needed to achieve MDGs Diminishing marginal returns to the inputs20ZF0ZFP,Determinants of MDG outcomes' Modeling education in MAMS$Service measured per student in each teaching cycle (primary, secondary, tertiary). Model tracks evolution of enrollment in each cycle Educational outcomes: for each cycle, rates of entry, pass, repeat, and drop out; between cycles, share that continues) as functions of a set of determinants MDG 2 (net primary completion rate) computed as product of 1st grade entry rate and primary cycle pass rates for the relevant series of years..0PFa Q1Intertemporal behavior$"Dynamics: Updating of stocks of factors (different types of labor and capital, other factors) and debt (domestic and foreign) TFP growth by production sector depending on Growth in selected capital stocks (general or sector  specific infrastructure) Openness (trade share in GDP) Key feature of scenarios: budget balance obtained alternatively by foreign grants, domestic borrowing or domestic taxesh 0Z20Z2n0Z2x0Z2 nxFlexible modeling framework$MAMS has evolved from an Ethiopia-specific pilot version to one that is more widely applicable, and includes: multiple sectors multiple households wide range of taxes NGO + private MDG/HD services special-case sectors (resource-based export sectors, regulated utilities) MAMS works with standard approaches to poverty and inequality analysis: aggregate poverty elasticity representative household microsimulation (integrated, top-down)n0P(0P(0P(I0P(]0P(nI]2Data requirements$NBasic data needs are similar to other CGE models (SAM; physical labor data; elasticities in trade, production, and consumption) Data (and model) disaggregation highly flexible outside the government and the labor market Data requirements specific to MAMS: SAM: government consumption and investment disaggregated by MDG-related functions; labor disaggregated by educational achievement; Stocks of students by cycle; population data with some disaggregation by age; Data from sector studies on MDGs and education: base-year indicators, elasticities, service expansion required to reach MDGs..ZOZO5Applications of MAMS$MAMS is being applied in numerous countries: 19 in Latin America and the Caribbean (in collaboration with the UNDP and UNDESA) 7 in Sub-Saharan Africa In Ethiopia (the pilot country), MAMS has been extensively used by the World Bank and the government in the analysis of MDG and Poverty Reduction Strategies, as well as independent studies on demography, labor market, and aid/budget policy.H-0Z<l0Z<0Z<-l83. Ethiopia application$3Base scenario calibrated around current resource availability Alternative MDG-base scenario in which: foreign grants adjust to meet the government financing gap the MDGs that are covered (1, 2, 4, 5, 7a, 7b) are all achieved by 2015 Following graphs show illustrative results from MDG strategy simulations TgIgIB Foreign aid per capita (US$)$\5Real exchange rate$A*Wages for workers with secondary schooling++ W1&Aid needs and the timing of scaling up''%6:Trade-offs between human development (HD) and poverty MDGs;;$X3MAMS Ethiopia findings$Key results: Foreign aid per capita increases five-fold to US$79 in 2015 as compared to 2005. Heavy reliance on foreign aid appreciates the real exchange rate and skews production toward non-tradables. In the educated part of the labor market, wage increases are initially rapid but later slow down when labor supplies increase and the scaling-up period is concluded. A human development focus puts the economy on a slower growth track then a focus on infrastructure (with equal spending).ZZ: 4. Research agenda / conclusions"!("(What we have done so far points to what we need to understand better: Determinants of MDG and education outcomes (single- and cross-country econometric work) Effects of alternative (micro) targeting policies for health and education (extended micro-simulation analysis) Optimizing and taking into account the path towards the MDGs Incorporating information on success of MDG interventions (from impact evaluation, etc.)DF0" P2`0" P2F`=$ MDG strategy analysis is a serious challenge for economists and others  need for analysis using a variety of approaches (sectoral, econometric, economywide modeling). MAMS has been designed with this end in mind"-"n6 NHF4C1CE 9DI -3F 'DE*'(9) HF1-( ('D#3&D)$('((',>% ReferencesBourguignon, Franois, Hans Lofgren, and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla. 2006. Aid, service delivery and the MDGs in an economy-wide framework. Mimeo. World Bank. Lofgren, Hans and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla. 2006.  Economywide Simulations of Ethiopian MDG Strategies. Paper presented at the Ninth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa. June. Lofgren, Hans and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla. 2006.  MAMS: An Economywide Model for Analysis of MDG Country Strategies: Technical Documentation. Paper presented at the Ninth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa. 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ZB )P s *1 ? `B *P 0o ? `B +P 0o ?  ZB ,P s *1 ?ZB -P s *1 ?V V ZB .P s *1 ?d d ZB /P s *1 ?ZB 0P s *1 ?PP`B 1P 0o ?ZB 2P s *1 ?   ZB 3P s *1 ?   ZB 4P s *1 ? N N ZB 5P s *1 ? ooH P 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.]@+D='  = @B + 0^N0 dL(  d~ d s *v `}    d c $}    "(H d 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J h+D='  = @B + 0^N0 R(  ~  s * `}     s * `  "(H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J h+D='  = @B + 0^N0 P6(  ~  s *D `}   x  c $ ``  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.JŦ+D='  = @B + 0^N0 0R(  ~  s * `}     s *l `  "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B + 0^N0 `R(  ~  s * `}     s *|u    "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B + 0^N0 R(  ~  s *P `}     s *Hlv  `  "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B +S 0 zr (  x  c $  `   R  s *A@H  0޽h ? 33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B + '0 80(  x  c $`     0`4 PNote: Indexed at 100 in 2005 2X  0A??H  0޽h ? 33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B + (0 /'(  x  c $? P  ?   0?`4 MUnit: Ethiopian 2005 Birr 2R  s *A `@H  0޽h ? 33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B +% !0^N0 $l(  lx l c $ `}     l0 6A ?$[  ? l 0? P  QWithout productivity gain 2 l 00? 0 T  Y!With government productivity gain" 2"H l 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.~+D='  = @B +_  0 ~P(  ~  s *? `}  ? X  0A?p`H  0޽h ? 33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B + #0^N0 t<(  t~ t s *D  `}  D  ~ t s *D  ` D  H t 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.Ȇ+D='  = @B + 0^N0 R(  ~  s *D  `}  D    s *8%  ` D  "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B + 0^N0 0(    s *-D  ` D  "p`Pp  H|;D  ? ^ 4. Research agenda / conclusions"!("(H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B +$ *0 $(  r  S ?D  `}  D  r  S X@D  ` D  H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.ms@ 0^N0 P<(  ~  s *\v  `}  v  ~  s *ID @ `P  v  H  0޽h ? ̙33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B + 0^N0 0R(  0~ 0 s *[D  `}  D   0 s *0~D  ` D  "p`PpH 0 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.J+D='  = @B + )0 80(  x  c $D  `  D    0(D `4 V"Note: 2015 target for MDG 2 = 100%# 2#R  s *A0H  0޽h ? 33y___PPT10Y+D='  = @B +0 VN (   d  c $XK   D B  s *D  M)  D   The wording  consider the possibility that (not the  fact that) is used since some of the points are not always true (e.g. see f) b. cf. the role of infrastructure (roads) e. HD may promote growth; but, on the other hand, spending on HD may reduce spending on other areas (like infra) that are more growth-promoting. Point (e) could be deleted. H  0.k ? ̙33o0 /'@(  @d @ c $XK   D  @ s *D  M)  D  eProblem with typical economywide models: They do not capture the output side of government spending. (ee H @ 0.k ? ̙33V 0 @Pf(  Pd P c $XK   D  P s *pD  )  D  P The relevant functions: education, health, & . The need for capital in government service production is normally not recognized in economic models. National accounts rarely ascribe rent to government capital; standard profit-maximizing behavior (MVP = MC) is not feasible.H P 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.Tq[d( 0 `X8(  Xd X c $XK   D  X s *`D  )  D  " H X 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.-\{tc 0 hs(  hd h c $XK   D  h s *D  )  D  ]Enrollment in any cycle in any year = [old students that continue/repeat] + [entering graduates from earlier cycle] + [new entrants to school system]. Logistic functions used to model student behavior within and between cycles: shares of relevant totals that enter 1st grade; in each grade, pass and continue, repeat, or drop out; and continue from one cycle to next selected shares sum to unity; If you have a 4-year primary cycle and MDG2 for 2015 is defined as the product of the 1st grade entry rate in 2012 and the passing rates in years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. In order to achieve 100% (everyone in the right age cohort completing a full cycle of primary schooling by 2015), then all these shares have to be 1(00%). jH&WH h 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.-\}t$0 `4(  d  c $XK     s *  )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.Tq[d0 zr (  d  c $XK   f  s *  M)   pIn a dynamic-recursive model, decisions in this period depend on a set of parameters and past and current variable levels, but not on future variable values. As a result, it can (but doesn t have to) be solved one year at a time. The familiar features include: complete account of payments/receipts for agents and at the macro level; [mostly] price-clearing markets; imperfect substitutability/ transformability in foreign trade) Given that the workshop is about  practical approaches, the fact that many features are familiar to other modelers is a definite plus.h     H  0.k ? ̙33(0  8(  d  c $XK     s *8  )   " H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.-\t(0 @8(  d  c $XK   D   s *D  )  D  " H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_0 ?7p(  d  c $XK   +  s *p#  )   In LAC, in conjunction with micro-simulation analysis The SSA countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda.H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_(0 8(  d  c $XK     s *,  )   " H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_(0 8(  d  c $XK     s *0  )   " H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_ 0 n(  d  c $XK     s *06  M)   X(The decline in 2011 is due to the appearance of a productivity effect from public infrastructure; assumed to capturing anticipated  network effects H  0.k ? ̙33($0 @8(  d  c $XK     s *7  )   " H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_(%0 ` 8(   d   c $XK      s * D  )   " H   0.k ? 3380___PPT10.L ((0 48(  4d 4 c $XK    4 s *I  )   " H 4 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.T]_*0 VN@(  @d @ c $XK   B @ s *O  M)    The wording  consider the possibility that (not the  fact that) is used since some of the points are not always true (e.g. see f) b. cf. the role of infrastructure (roads) e. HD may promote growth; but, on the other hand, spending on HD may reduce spending on other areas (like infra) that are more growth-promoting. Point (e) could be deleted. H @ 0.k ? ̙33,0 "@X(  XX X C XK    X S PX  )d  LD___PPT9&  `Wage incentives are defined as the ratio between two current wage rates: w1/w2: w1 = the wage the student would earn if he/she stayed in school long enough to climb one notch up in the wage-skill-educational level hierarchy; w2 = the wage the student would earn if he/she dropped out of school immediately; If [w1/w2] goes up, you are encouraged to stay in school longer & .<Q" C" Q)H X 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.3.0 :2x(  xX x C XK   2 x S \n  )   The following graph provides illustrative results from MDG strategy simulations The axes show the share of required gains (relative to 1990 value) that is achieved for poverty and human development (in HD with uniform gains for MDGs 2, 4, and 5). The point  100% of aid : grant aid is sufficient to meet the financing gap; full achievement of HD MDGs; slight overshooting for poverty MDG. The curves with < 100% of aid: trade-offs between poverty reduction and human development when, within the constraints of available financing, spending is allocated in alternative shares between infrastructure (promoting growth and poverty reduction) and human development (primary education, health, and water-sanitation).PzH x 0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ü810 H(  X  C XK     S |t  )   J6The additional productivity gain is for the governmentH  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.@l40 0(  X  C XK     S ܅  )   .Prices and exchange rates change; Difficult to assign inputs to specific sectors/MDGs; Synergies / externalities among MDGs can be important; Changing private income / spending affects attainment; Possible trade-offs between MDGs linked to levels and composition of government spending and revenues. .. n. . H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.`p30 p(  X  C XK     S   )   2$79 $60 if annual productivity growth for the government increases as follows: labor from 1.1 to 2.6 Investment and intermediate inputs from 0% to 1.5%4QIMIH  0.k ? 3380___PPT10._s1* )0 (  X  C XK   s   S s  )  s   H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ms0p6 0 (  X  C XK     S   )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ms0p6 -0 (  X  C XK     S D  )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ms06 50 (  X  C XK     S   )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ms 6 0 (  X  C XK     S |  )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ms 6 0 (  X  C XK     S   )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.msW6 60 (  X  C XK     S   )    H  0.k ? 3380___PPT10.ns4xXڨ{00C QPq15bD+sk^*F2* #G?4aީ|$}6\wX Rt},))$#Cɷ>wjŒN5b8Y>+eIrd_?y+!Ƣq:)2%QPgxnכǀ)'KQ6-duKDhsCq}3-DQ'@H\,!O9>=8vꓱ q`L%G uqfd0'id"5l`KdB;2ؓAC28 UL2qP d 'P d!/O2$C P P dA݆BJzdOdhHFKMД ]!:C`$Yz "5B$'ar $[ڗWl6m^/lm'䆐4M՗b'l;䟐@^q /`ZjI'굂yJX:1·eWɹ]\nKuGbu$k޸pcj|f 3d>oñr ʛL9V6X4ce_K8VpLCb4FH M :!i\ ]$0'#%Ā̀u*m6biFY?:**~t=}Ȩt6g!B2 9G{~Dxs9ҵJr0L(ɲn$K2!FW:5 zgוA}HmTL+1 XK\c.3S:q]E7AzH}H4| cg\GRѤ1woJ܃үY0wg\eKJ܊~~仇|ױwjuoW;h~v=A$QU) (WG[rFxu e| 7GOG:7'YԋnTEˉ*D9)-7 6RGQ~OdI# n d]:n_hOϿK! 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(MlX~KSJ(# 𧈢|QQßB"HA)(ž4ğb"4|"SG@:OAE|MIxJ*p# -񧨢|&UG@zOaE.|(VG@OqEn,U~AJ!Uߍ8nY,^ڜ-q>Nyga2G9 ^erH4 4^F\"2]UqX Wƒ3HW0$aa LI ?BlTVF/z759zʜ}6Oƙhѯ[ډۗ"_k|/xE?J7$6{z,Fc}r7O J)-_$׼Hbmd\# ׀oɱ_vCp(Gõ"`NkǶ^^JG R-k)(˺_uQꆢ+9-}7KoIi_K?η}!+?A__n ZM_(iER-}ïƃ 3LKa}[t{L+ +kg[_?kL+`LOPdž4ʼn.M%Deh_"HTTVqZ/Qq.Qq.Q}DշKT.Q[.QA_/QADŗ KT /QADŗ KTQ%*DT| "*D_/QADŗ %oh)շKT&_/QADŗ KTQ%*DT| "*D_/QADŗ KTQ%*DK/QiD~ D%KYpܧx*X/QdӲddq]QøMUHz-^d$j崷i5~Y|({쌯h8Fٯ]F7dd^!HL-#FYU_(ׂp\R>9 b1 c*]oC][cٱ_z7BnͱWdY؛/o/h5+ ?9rP0ggY&m  r 8z m#) . o4"1)(&+;V-0WM2=`"q F0}479JP<e]j3>`P0IuBW Z@{Ho=P` he}R'OVY[]_acEe)o1Oh+'0p hp   , 8DL@MDG Strategy Analysis: Methods and an Agenda for Future Work wb150220United Nations89Microsoft Office PowerPoint@PN@`@#@,uG ;  Q  y--$xx--'@Arial-. 2 CMAMS: . "System9-@Arial-. *2 !(What is it? Why use it?.-@Arial-. 2 5; Hans Lofgren.-@Arial-. 2 >> World Bank.-@Arial-. F2 K *Presentation for the Workshop of the UNDP .-@Arial-.  2 Kt.-@Arial-. 2 KxUNDESA .-@Arial-.  2 K.-@Arial-. 2 Q World Bank .-@Arial-.  2 Q2.-@Arial-. 2 Q6 LAS Project .-@Arial-.  2 QT.-@Arial-. (2 QVAssessing Development .-@Arial-. Q2 W1Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in the Arab Region.-@Arial-.  2 W.-@Arial-.  2 W, .-@Arial-. 2 \:Cairo, April 2.-@Arial-.  2 \X-.-@Arial-. 2 \Z5, 2007.-՜.+,0    !On-screen ShowThe World Bank Group $ArialTimes New Roman WingdingsArial Unicode MSVerdanaDefault DesignMicrosoft Office Excel ChartMAMS: What is it? Why use it? Introduction#1. Issues in MDG strategy analysis&Features of an MDG analytic frameworkInherent complexity2. MAMSSlide 7Features of MAMS GovernmentMDG productionDeterminants of MDG outcomesModeling education in MAMSIntertemporal behaviorFlexible modeling frameworkData requirementsApplications of MAMS3. Ethiopia applicationForeign aid per capita (US$)Real exchange rate+Wages for workers with secondary schooling'Aid needs and the timing of scaling up;Trade-offs between human development (HD) and poverty MDGsMAMS Ethiopia findings!4. Research agenda / conclusions Slide 25 Slide 26 References-REMAINING SLIDES FOR INTEGRATION OR DELETIONUEvolution over Time for MDG 2 Net Primary School Completion Rate (%) (By Simulation)  Fonts UsedDesign TemplateEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titles&_@United NationsUnited Nations  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)PicturesB,Current UserSummaryInformation(PowerPoint Document(dDocumentSummaryInformation8