ࡱ> LKW( `/ 0DTimes New RomanllT -a0DArialNew RomanllT -a0@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` ldxA "$& 0AAf@3 ʚ;v5ʚ;g4\d\d/ -a0^ppp@ <4dddd8))0l0 80___PPT10 pp?  %       /  0` ̙33` ` ff3333f` 333MMM` f` f` 3>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> >(    6  "P   c+Haga clic para cambiar el estilo de ttulo ,, A  0И  "   kHaga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrn Segundo nivel Tercer nivel Cuarto nivel Quinto nivel7   l   0  "``   `*    0$  "`    b*    0v  "`    b*  H  0޽h ? ̙33 *Diseo predeterminado0 \#(  \ \ 0r  P     P*   \ 0       R*  d \ c $ ?   / \ 0p   0   kHaga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrn Segundo nivel Tercer nivel Cuarto nivel Quinto nivel7    l \ 6w  _P    P*   \ 6|  _    R*  H \ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.u!+0 B: (    0@ e YMAMS IN GAMS: DETAILED REVIEW 06  0E p  ]MARTN CICOWIEZ ,  0I  < ^Presentation for the Workshop of the UNDP  UNDESA  World Bank  LAS Project  Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in the Arab Region , Cairo, April 2-5, 2007-H  0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.qj00+D='  = @B +s0 h(  h h 0/ Zz YTO DO , ! h 0,4   read readme-mams.txt create a new database for MAMS based on test-mdg. changes in DMOD.gms. run the model. generate errors in new-mdg database use diagnostics-data.inc (i.e., navigate through the .lst file) change the database to test-macro. run the model.(0<jt. )9H h 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.4v]+D='  = @B +'0 >64(  4 4 08` Zz x$CREATING A COUNTRY DATABASE FOR MAMS%%$ ,  4 0(   VdCreate -mdg.dat, -mdg.xls, and -mdggdx.inc files based on test-mdg.dat, test-mdg.xls, and test-mdggdx.inc, respectively. Make the following changes to dmod.gms file: Add the new database to the set dbase0. Add the new database to the set mdgmodel0. Add an $INCLUDE -mdg.dat statement at the INCLUDE ONE DATA SET section.60<0<   .t0H 4 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.r;+D='  = @B +0  @t(  t t 0 Zz iMACRO VERSION EXAMPLE ,  t 04   <egy-macro.xls (copy and rename test-macro.xls) egy-macro.dat (copy and rename test-macro.dat) egy-macrogdx.inc (copy and rename test-macrogdx.inc)0<l     H t 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.Tw~+D='  = @B +0 8>(  8 8 0 Zz x$CREATING A COUNTRY DATABASE FOR MAMS%%$ , & 8 0   Make the following changes to the <country>-mdg.dat file: Replace the value for parameter dbincl(dbase0). Fill the time related sets always looking for sections marked as !!!--START-INPUT & !!!--END-INPUT. Fill the set ac based on SAM accounts and government services for capital factors always looking for sections marked as !!!--START-INPUT & !!!--END-INPUT. Fill the following sets: t11, t1, t2, tsol, tmid, ac, a, c, f, flab, fcap, ins, h, intdomrow, savins, tax, capins, inv, invprv, invpub, cedu, chlth, among other. Notice that the use of this sets gives a lot of flexibility to MAMS.6:0<0<:,\ TH 8 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.r@+D='  = @B +0 L-(  L L 0 Zz #TIME SETS IN -mdg.DAT FILE$$2 , , ,  L 0`   B t11 all years (incl. years preceding simulation period) /1952*2050/ t1(t11) all potential years for model simulations /2002*2050/ t(t1) years for which model is solved /2002*2015/ t2(t1) auxiliary time set identical to initial definition of t /2002*2015/ tsol(t1) years for which the model is solved /2002*2015/ C02CE ,H L 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.Lt0+D='  = @B +0  <(  < < 0] Zz x$CREATING A COUNTRY DATABASE FOR MAMS%%$ ,  < 0   (Make the following changes to the -mdg.dat file (cont): Notice that all government activities need to have a specific capital factor. Some sets can be left empty (e.g., cedup2 in most countries). Fill the following mappings between different sets: mfcapgova, mcapsavins, mcapinv, mactinv, mcedu, mflabc, among others. Select one of the three available methods to read your country database. Notice that the user need to provide one of the following files: -mdgxls.inc; -mdggdx.inc; or -mdg.inc.6A0<0<A,    H < 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.rN+D='  = @B +0  p3(  p p 0G Zz x$CREATING A COUNTRY DATABASE FOR MAMS%%$ ,  p 0O   +Changes in DMOD. Changes in .dat. (,0<D , , , ,H p 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.QwIV+D='  = @B +c0 zr0@ (  @ @ 0ܔ Zz bTHE EXCEL FILE ,  @ 0  k MIntroduce your SAM. Assume that exogenous variables grow at the same rate as GDP. Make simplifying assumptions for data on government investment used to estimate initial government capital stocks. Run the MACRO version of MAMS. Use the information that diagnostics-data provides.0<S @ 0~ G We provide some guidelines to successfully run MAMS for the first time. Notice that, in a later stage, the user should use his own data throughout the EXCEL sheet. H @ 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.rf+D='  = @B +0 XZ(  X X 0 Zz kSELECTION MODEL VERSION , O X 0   )The model can be solved using two alternatives methods: multi-pass; and single-pass. The model should be solved at least twice in order to calibrate TFP: fix GDP closure (i.e., calibration run); and fix TFP closure (i.e., GDP becomes endogenous). The selection is made at the top of DMOD.GMS file.80<0<E0<]0<30<8E]3 4H X 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.uN+D='  = @B +0 `x9(  x x 0T$ Zz oREPORTING RESULTS FROM MAMS , * x 0*   `values for all model variables - variable name + X stored in parameter; % annual growth in parameters from first period to last period - above parameter name + PP; % annual growth in parameters from some intermediate year to last year - above parameter name + PPMID; and % annual growth in parameters from preceding period - above parameter name + PY. a02a,  H x 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.}wP+D='  = @B + 0 #@(    00   &A usual in a CGE model, MAMS needs to specify three macroeconomic closures: government sector; external balance; and savings-investment.6L0<=0<L=Du , ,  , ,  0; Zz THE MACRO CLOSURE RULE IN DMOD2  2 , ,  , H  0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.qj2+D='  = @B +^0 umd(  d d 0D   6GOVERNMENT. Direct taxes are endogenous. Government savings are a residual. Government investment necessary to cover capital needs. Government consumption is exogenous. Government debt follows an exogenous path. EXTERNAL SECTOR. Small open economy. RER adjusts to equilibrate the current account BoP. Savings from ROW is implicitly fixed because values are imposed for: foreign debt, transfers from/to ROW; and FDI. SAVINGS-INVESTMENT. Private investment is a fixed proportion of absorption. The savings rates for domestic non-government institutions are endogenous.70F7( p`Pp d 0 Zz a'MACRO CLOSURE RULE BASELINE (DMOD2.GMS)(0(H d 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.+D='  = @B +0 pH(  H H 0 Zz hPRODUCING A BASELINE ,  H 0   #Check that LOGCALIBEDU and LOGCALIBMDG models solve without errors; Monitor the evolution of debt stocks in the baseline. Check the section named diagnostics check for debt and borrowing for help. B0<x1H H 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.r+D='  = @B +90 PHPD(  D D 0 Zz  SIMULATIONS FILE (DSIM.GMS) FILE!!2 , , ,  D 0$g   RAll the available simulations are in the set sim while the current simulation (i.e., those that are actually run) are in the set simcur. The simulations can be run in multi-pass (more robust) or single-pass (faster). The selection can be made for every simulation separately. The user can change closure rules in DSIM.GMS by changing the values for siclos, govclos, and rowclose. Be careful when changing a closure rule!(0<b-Q+H D 0޽h ? ̙33___PPT10i.r+D='  = @B +0 ?7`(  `X ` C \   7 ` S  \ 0   The multi-pass solves one period at a time while single-pass solves all periods at the same time. Use slides prepared for Antigua regarding GDP and TFP closure???bBH ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.u!r\@_iN p(6?[W1PEa}R70<$Ic1Oh+'0 hp  PowerPoint PresentationUnited Nations67Microsoft PowerPoint@0̸u@@*;w1G;  :O  y--$xx--'@Arial-. 2 "!MAMS IN GAMS:    . "System;-@Arial-. 2 1DETAILED REVIEW   .-@Arial-.  2 B8MART.-@Arial-.  2 BG.-@Arial-. 2 BH N CICOWIEZ.-@Arial-. F2 Z *Presentation for the Workshop of the UNDP .-@Arial-.  2 ZZ.-@Arial-. 2 Z]UNDESA .-@Arial-.  2 Zp.-@Arial-. 2 Zs World Bank .-@Arial-.  2 Z.-@Arial-.  2 ZLAS .-@Arial-. 2 _ Project .-@Arial-.  2 _.-@Arial-. O2 _0Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the .-@Arial-.  2 _tMDGs.-@Arial-. 2 _ in the Arab .-@Arial-. 2 c5Region.-@Arial-.  2 cA.-@Arial-. 2 cB, Cairo, April 2.-@Arial-.  2 c\-.-@Arial-. 2 c]5, 2007 .-՜.+,0h    On-screen Show_dS Times New RomanArialDiseo predeterminadoSlide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Slide 13 Slide 14 Slide 15  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles&_;dUnited NationsUnited Nations  !"#$%&'()*+,-./012456789:<=>?@ABDEFGHIJMRoot EntrydO)Current UserCSummaryInformation(3PowerPoint Document(_dDocumentSummaryInformation8;