The Population Division produces a systematic and comprehensive series of annual, model-based estimates and projections of family planning indicators for the period from 1970 to 2030. Median estimates with 80 per cent and 95 per cent uncertainty intervals are provided for 185 countries or areas of the world, and for regions and development groups. A Bayesian hierarchical model combined with country-specific time trends was used to generate the estimates, projections and uncertainty assessments.
The model-based estimates and projections were derived from survey-based estimates by country, as compiled in World Contraceptive Use 2016, using data available as of April 2016.
Details of the methodology are described in Alkema, L. et al. (2013). National, regional and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. The Lancet. Vol. 381, Issue 9878, pp. 1642–1652.
- Model-based estimates and projections: Countries [Tables in Excel-Format] [Figures]
- Model-based estimates and projections: Regions [Tables in Excel-Format] [Figures]
Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2016). Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2016. New York: United Nations.