The Population Division produces a systematic and comprehensive series of annual, model-based estimates and projections of contraceptive prevalence, unmet need for family planning, total demand for family planning and the percentage of demand for family planning that is satisfied among married or in-union women for the period from 1970 to 2030. Median estimates with 80 per cent and 95 per cent uncertainty intervals are provided for 194 countries or areas of the world and for regions and development groups. A Bayesian hierarchical model combined with country-specific time trends was used to generate the estimates, projections and uncertainty assessments. The model advances prior work and accounts for differences by data source, sample population, and contraceptive methods included in measures of prevalence.
The estimates and projections are based on the country-specific data compiled in World Contraceptive Use 2015. Model results are as of March 2015.
Details on the methodology are described in Alkema, L. et al. (2013). National, regional and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. The Lancet. Vol. 381, Issue 9878, pp. 1642–1652.
- Model-based estimates and projections: Countries [Tables in Excel-Format] [Figures]
- Model-based estimates and projections: Regions [Tables in Excel-Format] [Figures]
Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2015. New York: United Nations.