The Population Division reviews regularly the assumptions used in projecting the fertility, mortality and international migration of national populations. Most recently, the Population Division has undertaken the systematic examination of the premises underlying the assumptions on future fertility trends. A series of three expert group meetings have been convened to discuss recent fertility trends and future prospects for different groups of countries. As a result of the deliberations of those meetings, the assumptions on future fertility trends have been modified significantly over the course of the three most recent sets of national population projections, namely, the 1998, 2000 and 2002 Revisions of World Population Prospects. In addition, the methodology for the projection of HIV/AIDS was revised considerably in the 2002 Revision and the assumptions about international migration have also been changing as better information becomes available. Consequently, the long-range projections consistent with the 1998 Revision are not consistent with the 2002 Revision and there is a need for a new set of long- range projections.
This document presents the report of the meeting of the Technical Working Group together with the background paper prepared by the Population Division and the questions addressed by the meeting