United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and Social Affairs

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Publications

The United Nations Population Division, with the support of the MacArthur Foundation, convened the Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, at United Nations Headquarters in New York, from 11-14 March 2002. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss guidelines for fertility change proposed by the Division for use in intermediate-fertility countries, defined as countries with total fertility between 2.1 and 5 children per woman in 1995-2000. The proposed guidelines anticipate that by 2050 fertility in the intermediate-fertility countries will fall below the level required for long-term population replacement. These guidelines represent an important break with traditional demographic views about the future of fertility and with the guidelines used by the Population Division to project the fertility of intermediate-fertility countries in the 2000 Revision of the official United Nations projections.

Part One

Part Two. Background Papers

The future of fertility in intermediate-fertility countries
(Population Division)
The contemporary population challenge
(John Caldwell)
Impact of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development
(Jason Finkle)
The role of international funding in future fertility declines among intermediate-fertility countries
(Steven W. Sinding)
Examining changes in the status of women and gender as predictors of fertility change issues in intermediate-fertility countries
(Maria E. Cosio-Zavala)
The impact of HIV-1 on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: causes and consequences
(Simon Gregson, Basia Zaba and Susan-Catherine Hunter)
Fertility levels and trends in countries with intermediate levels of fertility
(Population Division)
Structures familiales et evolutions de la fecondite dans les pays a fecondite intermediaire d'Afrique de l'ouest
(Therese Locoh)
Education and future fertility trends, with special reference to mid-transitional countries
(John Cleland)
Female labour-force participation
(Lin Lean Lim)
Views and policies concerning population growth and fertility among governments in intermediate- fertility countries
(Population Division)
Effort measures for family planning action programs: past trends and future prospects
(John Ross)
The end of the fertility transition in the developing world
(John Bongaarts)
The proximate determinants during the fertility transition
(Jean-Pierre Guengant)

Part Three. Country Papers

Completing the fertility transition: the case of Argentina
(Edith Alejandra Pantelides)
When will Bangladesh reach replacement-level fertility? The role of education and family planning services
(Mizanur Rahman, Julie DaVanzo and Abdur Razzaque)
What will happen to Brazilian fertility?
(Ana Maria Goldani)
India's changing dates with replacement fertility: a review of recent fertility trends and future prospects
(P.N. Mari Bhat)
On the future of human fertility in India
(Tim Dyson)
Caught in transit: Questions about the future of Indonesian fertility
(Terry H.Hull)
Recent changes and the future of fertility in Iran
(Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi)
Fertility in Israel: is the transition to replacement level in sight?
(Dov Friedlander)
Completing the fertility transition: Jordan, Lebanon, Syria
(Riad Tabbarah)
Kenya's fertility transition: how low will it go?
(John Blacker)
Sur les pas de l'Europe du sud: la fecondite au Maghreb
(Youssef Courbage)
Fertility in Mexico: trends and forecast
(Rodolfo Tuiran, Virgilio Partida, Octavio Mojarro and Elena Zuniga)
Fertility transition in Nigeria: trends and prospect
(Bamikale J. Feyisetan and Akinrinola Bankole)
Fertility decline in the Philippines: current status, future prospects
(Marilou Palabrica-Costello and John B. Casterline)
Fertility transition in South Africa and its implications on the four major population groups
(Leon Swartz)
On the prospects for endless fertility decline in South Asia
(Alaka Malwade Basu)