UN DESA | DPAD | Development Policy Analysis Division
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United Nations Global Policy Model
This section contains technical documents which describe the modelling and technical work of the division. This includes global and macroeconomic models like:
- the Global Forecasting Framework (GFF), used for globally consistent short-term projections at country level;
- the Global Policy Model (GPM), used for policy analysis and mid- to long-term economic scenarios at regional level;
- country-specific, dynamic-recursive CGE models, used for the evaluation of socio- economic developments and achievement of Millenium Development Goals under alternative policy scenarios.
and empirical frameworks for the evaluation of:
- trade shocks and economic vulnerability, which estimates the impact of changes in world income and commerce on the trade balance of countries by region and trade structure;
- world economic vulnerability and employment, which traces the implications of global economic developments on various categories of employment, unemployment, migration, etc.
The Global Policy Model
The Global Policy Model (GPM) is a tool for investigation of policy scenarios for the world economy that has been developed for the Development Analysis and Policy Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA/DPAD). The model allows users to specify alternative assumptions about the future economic context and policy responses in different groups of countries and trace macro-economic outcomes over short, medium and long-term timescales. It is a model of the world economy design to simulate the macroeocnomic impacts on countries and regions of exogenous shocks to the global economy, the potential effects of 'sea changes' in market confidence (such as reversals in financial market confidence following asset price bubbles), changes in international regulation of trade and finance and the international spill-over effects of major policy changes in major economies. The United Nations GPM is also designed to simulate scenarios of international policy coordination.
For a general description of GPM see:
- United Nations GPM: Underlying concepts and empirical illustrations
- United Nations GPM: Technical description of GPM
- United Nations GPM: Appendices A–F
For examples of simulations with GPM see:
- Coordinated and uncoordinated policy measures as the global financial crisis intensifies (World Economic Situation and Prospects update as of mid-2009)
- Downside risk scenarios as the world economy recovers from the global financial crisis of 2009 (World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010)
- A low-carbon, high growth policy scenario for the world economy (World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet, chapter I)
- Public and private investment in a low-carbon, high growth policy scenario for the world economy (World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet, chapter IV, box IV.4)