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Studies

Realizing the Millennium Development Goals
through socially inclusive macroeconomic policies

Country studies have been prepared in the framework of this project to estimate financing requirements to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and different macroeconomic trade-offs that these may trigger. Each study explores three main questions: first, what is the trajectory that the country would follow under current policies and investments, and what is the likelihood of achieving the goals (or a subset of them) under those circumstances? If projections based on the continuation of the status quo suggest important departures from the desired outcomes, then the second question is: what changes in development strategy, institutions, policies, and investments may be needed to achieve the goals? To answer the second question requires analysis of the links between policy choices and economic outcomes. While much progress has been made in understanding these links, much more (country-specific) research needs to be done. Given the important roles of governments and international institutions in financing development programs, a related third question is: what are the costs of different strategies, policies, and investment alternatives?

Each country study bases its analysis on an integrated macro-micro modeling framework that combines the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS)—a dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—, a microeconomic analysis of MDG determinants, and a microsimulation methodology to analyze poverty and inequality repercussions of different MDG financing strategies. The framework permits to conduct analysis of different financing scenarios under which the MDG may be achieved and what macroeconomic trade-offs may be triggered with public spending is scaled up and financed to achieve the goals.

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