With forecasters predicting drought in parts of Southern Africa because of the El Niño global weather phenomenon, governments and international donors are taking action to head off possible disaster. Their concerns have been reinforced by the severe disruptions that El Niño already has caused in the Horn of Africa, where unexpectedly heavy rains in October and November brought massive flooding, taking thousands of lives in Somalia and neighbouring countries and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless (see box below).
If El Niño-induced drought devastates crops as much as some indicators suggest during the critical growing months of early 1998, then millions of people in high-risk areas of Southern Africa may face severe food shortages, according to Ms. Catherine Bertini, Executive Director of the UN's World Food Programme (WFP). Some 5 million of them, "the poorest of the poor," will be especially vulnerable, she adds, warning that the impact of this El Niño may be "as bad or worse than any in many, many years."
Photo: WFP / Tom Haskell
Some Southern African countries already are in a precarious position. In eastern Zambia, for example, villagers were reported to be feeding on wild fruits because their maize had run out, while Vice-President Godfrey Miyanda announced in October that 27 districts that usually produce three-quarters of the annual harvest will likely require emergency food relief. As of early January, most of Zimbabwe had received less than 60 per cent of normal rainfall.
However, near-normal rains in Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and elsewhere in December-January have fostered some cautious optimism that drought may not materialize across the entire region.
Beyond immediate threats to food security, economists in South Africa project that a severe drought could mean a loss of up to 1 per cent in the growth of that country's gross domestic product, with repercussions for neighbouring countries. Mr. Kaire Mbuende, Executive Secretary of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC), has warned that 25 million cattle -- a key source of food and livelihoods in the region -- also are at risk. Many have been stricken with a lung illness, and drought would drastically reduce their chances of survival.
While some African countries have been caught off guard, Southern Africa overall is in a better state of readiness than the last time El Niño struck, in 1991-92. That drought cut the region's cereal production virtually in half and placed some 20 million people at threat of starvation. But a rapid regional and international mobilization during 1992-93 rushed relief aid to the hungry and saved Southern Africa from a devastating famine.
Today, conditions are even better. Peace prevails throughout most of Southern Africa (except in parts of Angola), so if drought does hit, it will not come on top of war-induced emergencies, as in the early 1990s. Moreover, partly because of the previous experience, "drought preparedness is very high in most countries of the region, although it differs in emphasis," reports Mr. Roger Buckland, a technical advisor in the SADC food security unit. After several relatively good harvests, food stocks in most countries remain sufficient to cover needs for a number of months. Water levels generally are high. With improved satellite monitoring, farmers have received earlier warnings, enabling them to shift to more drought-resistant crops.
Donors also are mobilizing well in advance, carefully monitoring regional food needs and earmarking cereal stocks available for relief purposes. The WFP has alerted donors that it may require at least 600,000 tonnes of emergency food aid for Southern Africa, at a cost of $200 mn, during 1997-98, and is making arrangements to set up a 100,000-tonne buffer stock in Durban, South Africa, for possible regional emergency operations. To support efforts by donors to better coordinate their assistance, the UN has established an inter-agency task force (see article on our Watch page).
The first indications of another of the cyclical El Niño events became evident in March 1997, as ocean temperatures in the Pacific began rising above normal levels. Such a warming typically alters rain and wind patterns across wide areas of the globe for a year or longer, leading to heavier rains in some areas and drier conditions in others. Based on the extent of the temperature increases in the Pacific, forecasters projected that this El Niño may be especially severe or prolonged, either matching or exceeding that of 1982-83, the most devastating one on record.
El Niño has been studied as a global phenomenon only since the 1970s, and many of its consequences are not fully predictable or well understood. In Africa, El Niño events sometimes bring wetter weather in East Africa and, during severe instances, drought in West Africa. One frequent consequence is drought in Southern Africa.
Based on this link, SADC's Regional Early Warning Unit issued its first expressions of concern in June 1997, followed by a more forceful warning in August. In contrast to 1991-92, these warnings have come much earlier, giving governments, farmers, donor agencies, transporters, grain traders and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) more time to prepare against drought. Most Southern African governments have since established special El Niño task forces or inter-ministerial committees to track its development and plan their responses.
At the regional level, in addition to periodic exchanges of information on weather and crop conditions, SADC held a special drought preparedness meeting in Gaborone, Botswana, 17-19 November. It brought together senior government officials, as well as representatives of donor agencies, NGOs and the private sector. Participants stressed that drought mitigation measures should become part of governments' normal planning processes, given that drought is recurrent in the region. They also noted the increased importance of the private sector in helping ensure food security, and urged governments to take further concrete steps to prepare for El Niño, such as identifying and monitoring vulnerable populations and strengthening coordination of the actions of governments, community organizations and donors, both regionally and within countries.
Through extension services, radio broadcasts and other means, farmers in many countries were warned months ago about the danger of an El Niño-induced drought and advised to shift both crops and planting timetables.
In Mozambique, for example, the National Rural Extension Directorate urged farmers in vulnerable provinces, where possible, to plant their crops on low-lying ground, which retains moisture for longer periods. In Zambia, farmers have been encouraged by the government and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to shift to short-season maize and to grains such as sorghum and millet, which can grow well under drier conditions. In Malawi, agricultural extension agents have suggested planting drought-resistant crops such as cassava, sweet potatoes, sorghum and early-maturing hybrid maize, although many poor farmers cannot afford the hybrid seeds or fertilizer and other supporting inputs.
Fortunately, good rains over the past year or two have left water levels in many dams and reservoirs across Southern Africa relatively high. New conservation measures in South Africa have contributed to the best water situation in that country in more than half a century, says the country's Department of Water Affairs. In September, Mozambique decided to restrict the water supply for irrigation from its main dams, to conserve water levels in case a severe drought hits.
From the first warnings of a possible drought, governments throughout Southern Africa began to carefully assess how much food would likely be available domestically during the 1997/98 marketing year, based on expected production and normal consumption levels (see table below). Thanks to the relatively high cereal output of the last season, several countries have significant surpluses which can be made available to neighbouring countries with food deficits.
Such assessments are very uncertain, however. Deregulation of the cereal trade, as in South Africa, makes it harder than in the past to monitor stock levels and import and export plans. It is also likely that many farmers, fearing drought, may market smaller amounts in order to retain larger stocks for their own family consumption, or may reduce the areas they plant to avoid major losses.
With the pursuit of structural
adjustment and market liberalization throughout the SADC region, many governments
are relying less on strategic grain reserves and more on trade to overcome
potential food gaps. South Africa, which had a good 1997 season, has more
than 1 mn tonnes of maize for export by private grain traders. Zimbabwe's
state-owned Grain Marketing Board has signed numerous export contracts in
the region, while Malawi expects to overcome part of its shortfall through
supplies from private traders in Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia. Botswana
and Lesotho plan to cover their food gaps almost entirely through commercial
imports.
Some countries, however, cannot afford to cover all their needs through commercial imports, and will require relief aid. This is true even for Mozambique, which completed the last season with an exceptional surplus, but is unable, because of poor roads and transport, to move grain from food-surplus provinces to those with deficits. Tanzania, because of poor rains during the previous season, already faces an estimated 700,000-tonne food deficit. If El Niño brings a prolonged drought, most countries, with the exception of South Africa, may have to appeal to donors for emergency assistance.
Anticipating that major amounts of food aid may need to be distributed to vulnerable populations, the networks of NGOs that played such a crucial role in combating the last Southern African famine threat are again moving into action. Most are combining preparations for relief assistance with drought-mitigation projects. For example, World Vision is collaborating with government departments and other NGOs in various countries to urge the planting of drought-resistant crops and build up grain stocks. In Zambia, the Programme Against Malnutrition, a national NGO that was widely cited as a model for effective relief work, is helping distribute seeds to farmers in provinces expected to be most affected by drought.
Despite such vigorous local preparations to head off famine, warns Ms. Bertini of the WFP, if El Niño hits hard, many countries in Africa "will need help, and a lot of it, from the international community."
**Box**
Record rainfall during October and November in much of East Africa -- blamed by meteorologists on the El Niño phenomenon -- brought severe flooding in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda. More than 2,000 people have been killed in the region, most of them in Somalia, with hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes. Much farmland was submerged, both maturing and harvested crops were destroyed, tens of thousands of head of livestock were killed, and essential roads were washed out. In late November the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development declared the Horn of Africa a disaster zone.
As of late December, more than 1,800 people were reported to have died from flooding and related causes in Somalia. As flood waters began to recede, international relief agencies continued to fly in food and other emergency relief supplies, for which donors have pledged more than $8 mn. In Ethiopia about 300 people were estimated to have died from flooding, with losses of cereal and pulse crops as high as 20 per cent. Ethiopia's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission estimates the country's food relief requirements for 1998 at around 573,000 tonnes. Kenya has declared its coastal zone a disaster area, while heavy crop damage also has been reported in the Rift Valley. Along Sudan's coastal region, the heaviest rains in 50 years have caused extensive damage and taken some lives, while rebel forces in the south attribute a worsening of food shortages in that war-ravaged region partly to the "El Niño effect." In Uganda, according to the UN's Department of Humanitarian Affairs, an estimated 100 people were killed by floods and landslides as of 23 December, and another 150,000 displaced from their homes.
