From Africa Recovery, Vol.16 #1 (April 2002), page 32

ECONOMIC GROWTH
African economies hold steady

Despite the delayed recovery in industrial economies following last year's global economic slowdown, sub-Saharan Africa's economic performance in 2002 is expected to hold steady at 2.6 per cent, the World Bank reports. This is significantly above the industrialized world's meagre 0.8 per cent growth rate, but below the 3.2 per cent average for all developing countries. It is also down from the 3.1 per cent recorded for sub-Saharan Africa in 2000, reports the Bank's annual Global Development Finance 2002, released on 13 March.

Merchandise exports are expected to grow by only 2 per cent this year, compared with 7.5 per cent in 2000. In part, this is because world commodity prices declined during 2001, falling especially sharply after the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US. While slow growth was widespread, nearly a third of sub-Saharan African countries achieved somewhat faster growth last year, including Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique and Uganda.

Demand for tourism and other service exports is expected to remain depressed due to heightened security concerns and the weak outlook for the European economy. Civil strife and poor governance also contribute to weak economic performance, the report says. "Near-term prospects are especially bleak in Southern Africa because of political uncertainty in Zimbabwe," the report notes.

The report, which tracks financial flows in and out of developing countries, notes that total official development assistance worldwide declined from $39.5 bn to $37.5 bn last year, with provisional estimates showing a proportional decline in flows to sub-Saharan Africa.

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