From Africa Recovery, Vol.12#1 (August 1998), Watch page

Strong African economic growth forecast for 1998

Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow between 4 and 5 per cent this year, after 2.9 per cent last year, according to a report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). The higher forecast is based on the assumption that good weather will prevail and that world market prices for Africa's key exports will improve. The lower forecast assumes that only one of those two factors will materialize, says the ECA's annual Survey of the Economic and Social Situation in Africa, 1997, of which a summary was released in April. Since the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon has largely passed, the ECA expects weather conditions in 1998 to be more favourable than last year, contributing to a 7 per cent growth in agricultural output.

El Niño had a negative impact on agricultural production in 1997, which grew only 1.7 per cent, compared with 5.2 per cent in 1996. Combined with other trends, this held back the overall GDP growth rate for the continent to only 2.9 per cent in 1997, down from 4 per cent the year before. Growth in manufacturing value added remained the same in 1997 as in 1996 (2.5 per cent), while growth in mining declined from 6.5 per cent to 3.8 per cent. The value of African exports increased by 5.9 per cent, with an 8 per cent growth in volume; but the main benefits flowed to oil-exporting countries, which attained a $32.9 bn trade surplus in 1997, while non-oil countries suffered a $24.6 bn deficit.

By subregion, the highest GDP growth rates were in Central Africa (3.8 per cent), West Africa (3.7 per cent) and East Africa (3.5 per cent). The lowest was in Southern Africa, at 2.4 per cent. Growth in North Africa was 2.8 per cent, close to the continental average, but since North Africa's 1996 growth was 4.4 per cent, this reflected the biggest slowdown for any subregion in Africa.

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