From Africa Recovery, Vol.12#1 (August 1998), Briefs page

El Niño spurs African disaster preparedness 

The El Niño weather phenomenon had a varied impact across Africa over 1997-98, bringing torrential rains in East Africa and drought conditions in parts of Southern Africa. Several thousand people were killed in floods that ravaged Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda (with most of the deaths in Somalia), while the entire region suffered serious economic losses. In Kenya, alone, government officials estimate that it will cost KSh8 bn ($130 mn) to repair the damage.

Although El Niño did not bring a devastating drought across Southern Africa, as initial forecasts had warned, it did contribute to below-average harvests in several countries. As of late May, Zimbabwe's Crop Forecasting Committee put grain production (excluding wheat) in the 1997/98 agricultural season at 1.5 mn tonnes, or 23 per cent below the 1990-97 annual average. Zambia's national maize production was about 30 per cent less than the 1988-97 average. South Africa's cereal output also will be well below normal, but since the country usually produces significant surpluses, there will be little impact on food security there. Mozambique will have above-average national production, thanks to good rains and a 10 per cent increase in land area planted under food crops. Overall, according to June projections by the Southern African Development Community's early warning unit, the region will face a 1.35 mn tonne maize deficit this year, compared with a 204,000 tonne shortfall in 1997.

Although warnings about El Niño's possible impact came several months earlier, not all countries were equally ready to meet the threat. "We are slow, lack proper coordination and are often haphazard in our approach to disaster preparedness," acknowledged Kenyan Agriculture Minister Musalia Mudavadi, in explaining his country's vulnerability.

An April 1998 report by the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System found that, in face of the El Niño threat in Southern Africa, Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa were among the leaders in reassessing and reformulating their structures and plans for early warning and response. Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi and Zambia already had response mechanisms in place for several years, but Zimbabwe was relatively slow in responding and Angola did not have a drought plan in place. As governments develop better disaster plans, the report urged them to give adequate attention to the important roles of both the media and the private sector.

Following the example set earlier by their colleagues in Southern Africa, climate and food security experts from throughout the Horn of Africa and East Africa met in Nairobi, Kenya, in February for a "Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum." Besides discussing ways to refine climate forecasting, they also focused on how to integrate such forecasts into their countries' decision-making processes, to improve mitigation plans and better safeguard food security.

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