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From Africa Recovery, New Releases, April 2002

Annan envoy pushes Angola peace deal

United Nations, New York -- Diplomatic efforts to end the decades-long Angolan civil war after the death of rebel leader Jonas Savimbi have shifted into high gear with the arrival in Luanda of Ibrahim Gambari, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special adviser on Africa. The veteran diplomat arrived in the Angolan capital 72 hours after the government and UNITA rebels initialled a ceasefire and agreed to resume negotiations over implementation of the 1994 peace plan, known as the Lusaka Protocol. He attended the signing of a formal truce between the two sides on 4 April and delivered a personal message from Mr. Annan to Angolan President Eduardo dos Santos.

In an exclusive interview with Africa Recovery, Mr. Gambari said that his two principal tasks are "first, to find out exactly what is happening, and second to be available to the government and the other stakeholders on what is [the UN] role now as a mediator in the peace process." Although the Lusaka agreement remains the sole basis for a final settlement to the conflict, he said, the political and military circumstances in Angola have changed dramatically. "When Lusaka was signed, UNITA controlled large chunks of territory with conventional forces." But as a result of government offensives that have driven the rebels deep into the interior and nearly destroyed UNITA's military capability, "that is no longer the case and there has to be an adjustment [in negotiations] to take account of the relative positions of the two sides militarily and politically."

The UN Security Council too is moving to adapt to recent developments. Since 1993 the Council has imposed arms, fuel, travel and financial sanctions on the rebels, Mr. Gambari observed, "not to punish them, but to persuade them to abandon violence and enter the political process" by weakening UNITA's military capacity. The problem now, he noted, is that UNITA may be too weak to make peace. "Essentially we are talking about four UNITAs. We have the UNITA of the generals who are in the bush. We have the UNITA external wing headed by [Isaias] Samakuva in France. Then we have the UNITA Parliamentarians -- one wing is UNITA Renovada, leaning towards the government and the Parliamentarians who are believed to be close to the late Dr. Savimbi. The challenge is how to get UNITA together to discuss a new leadership which will be a reliable interlocutor and partner for peace in Angola.

Sanctions "should not be an obstacle"

One issue under consideration, he said, is relaxing some sanctions to permit UNITA to re-organize. "The issue that has come to the fore is the travel ban, which the Security Council still maintains." Should UNITA unequivocally renounce violence and embrace the Lusaka agreement, "then the UN should not be an obstacle to their getting together." The Security Council has not decided to ease the sanctions, he cautioned, "but I cannot see how, on the one hand, the international community would like UNITA to have a single voice...and then be an obstacle by maintaining the travel ban. I don't believe that will happen." The Angolan government was also eager to see UNITA regroup, he asserted. "Or at least we hope so. It is in everybody's best interest to have a coherent voice from UNITA. The alternative will really be awful for the prospects for peace in the country."

On the government side, he continued, the authorities realize that Mr. Savimbi's death opens "a window of opportunity" for peace. "The government recognizes that the pressure is on, from civil society and elsewhere, to move from a war economy to a peace economy. They need some 'peace dividends.'"

The emergence of civil society as a political force, he said, has been one of Angola's most important and positive changes. "Civil society, under the leadership of the church has been extremely active.... They organize marches, they organize seminars, they organize peace rallies where thousands of people have been involved. They've had a very positive influence in moving both sides to a negotiated settlement." Although the government has declined to include the
churches in the upcoming talks, Mr. Gambari continued, there is little doubt that civil society will be directly involved in post-war reconstruction and national reconciliation. "The government and UNITA used to dismiss civil society as irrelevant, but in the last year I think there is a recognition by all that they cannot be ignored."

Call for national reconciliation

With a ceasefire in place and UNITA too weak to resume the war, he said, the government can afford to be generous in the upcoming talks. "Look at the way the [US] civil war ended -- where President Lincoln was talking about 'no victors, no vanquished, with malice toward none and charity to all.' Similarly, in Nigeria's bitter civil war you had a head of state, General Gowon, who seized the moment and called for national reconciliation and was magnanimous toward the defeated. "Now that the fighting is over, he concluded, "it is just as important to win the peace, which means winning the hearts and minds of those who...supported the other side. The government is not negotiating from a position of weakness."

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