| United Nations | A/50/526 |
General Assembly
Distr. GENERAL
9 October 1995
ORIGINAL:
ENGLISH
Fiftieth session
Agenda item 96 (f)
ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: INTERNATIONAL
DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
Early-warning capacities of the United Nations system
with regard to natural disasters
Report of the Secretary-General
SUMMARY
The present report is submitted pursuant to General Assembly
resolution 49/22 B of 20 December 1994 and contains information about the
early-warning capacities within the United Nations system with regard to
natural and similar disasters which have an adverse impact on the
environment. The use of telecommunications in support of early warning is
described in accordance with Economic and Social Council resolution 1995/47
A of 27 July 1990.
The report reviews the current early-warning activities of
organizations in the United Nations system and proposes improvements and
ways in which they may be coordinated more effectively. Consideration is
given to the roles of technology and telecommunications in the warning
process. Conclusions and proposals are made for a process that can lead to
the appropriate transfer of technology, in particular to developing
countries, and for means of contributing to improved coordination of early
warning internationally.
95-30351 (E) 231095/...
*9530351*
CONTENTS
Paragraphs Page
I. INTRODUCTION ........................................ 1 - 184
A. The value of early warning ...................... 1 - 74
B. International interest in early warning ......... 8 - 185
II. THE DISASTER CONTEXT OF EARLY WARNING ............... 19 - 337
A. The purpose of early warning .................... 19 - 237
B. Effectiveness of early warning .................. 24 - 278
C. Disasters, vulnerability and risk ............... 28 - 298
D. Hazards ......................................... 30 - 339
III. TECHNICAL PRACTICES AND EARLY WARNING ............... 34 -5310
A. Technology and warning practices ................ 34 - 3710
B. Communications and early warning ................ 38 - 4410
C. Technological opportunities ..................... 45 - 5312
IV. UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM INVOLVEMENT IN EARLY WARNING .. 54 -9613
A. Early warning for meteorological and hydrological
hazards ......................................... 55 - 6413
B. Early warning for geophysical hazards ........... 65 - 6815
C. Early warning for environmental hazards ......... 69 - 7516
D. Early warning for technological hazards ......... 76 - 8518
E. Review of telecommunications activities ......... 86 - 8820
F. Review of supporting activities and capacity- building
........................................ 89 - 9620
V. THE BASIS FOR INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION IN EARLY
WARNING ............................................. 97 - 11322
A. Role of the United Nations ...................... 98 - 10622
B. International agents for development ............ 107 - 11324
CONTENTS (continued)
Paragraphs Page
VI. BUILDING CAPACITY FOR EARLY WARNING: ISSUES, GAPS,
NEEDS ............................................... 114 - 13525
A. Perceptions of early-warning problems ........... 116 - 11926
B. Translating hazard identification into effective
response ........................................ 120 - 12326
C. International abilities and national experience . 124 - 12727
D. Disseminating the message; communicating early
warnings ........................................ 128 - 13128
E. Coordination of international and national
capabilities .................................... 132 - 13529
VII. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS ............................. 13629
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I. INTRODUCTION
A. The value of early warning
1. The timely and effective warning of possible disaster is a self-evident
objective, universally pursued by Governments and organizations in
determining disaster-reduction strategies. It is critical for individuals
in local communities organizing practical measures to protect their own
lives and property. Advances in science and technology have expanded the
possibilities of anticipating the effects of many, but still not all, of
the hazards which threaten nearly every country in some way.
2. As countries incorporate disaster-reduction policies into their
national social and economic development plans, establish effective
preparedness measures and improve their response capacities, the value of
timely and effective warnings in averting losses and protecting resources
becomes apparent. Many sectors of a society need to contribute to these
efforts. When they are able to focus their attention on mutual
collaboration for effective early warnings, the results can be impressive.
3. In 1991, government officials of Andhra Pradesh, India, were able to
implement a previously planned programme to evacuate 600,000 people from
the path of an approaching cyclone within 40 hours. This was possible
because the results of meteorological forecasts and warnings were
communicated through a combination of advanced and traditional channels to
people conversant with the preparedness plan from earlier community
exercises. Fatalities numbered less than one tenth of the more than 10,000
people who perished in a similar cyclone 13 years before. At that time in
the same location, neither warning, communications nor local response
capacities were as well established.
4. Another example of successful early warning occurred prior to the
volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. The results
of sophisticated scientific monitoring techniques were translated rapidly
into a common public understanding through simple means directly to the
vulnerable communities. When these warnings were coupled with the timely
implementation of previously organized preparedness activities, more than
350,000 people were spared personal physical harm from the largest
explosive volcanic eruption of the twentieth century.
5. While not all hazards offer the same possibility of prediction or
forewarning, national Governments none the less bear the sovereign
responsibility to the best of their abilities to protect their citizens
from disasters. In this respect, Governments in their policies, and local
communities by their actions, display varying degrees of awareness,
commitment and ability in adopting successful disaster-reduction
strategies.
6. Organizations of the United Nations system have shown long-standing
commitments to early-warning programmes. In some cases, programmes have
provided an institutional base or framework for the identification and
reporting of specific hazards at international or regional levels. In
others, they have been instrumental in encouraging common standards or
procedures which assist in the collection, interpretation or dissemination
of data. Their activities frequently transfer technology among specialists
or between national authorities. Other programmes focus on technical
assistance and training for capacity-building in developing countries.
7. For all the recent scientific and organizational progress made in the
conceptualizing, establishment and operation of early-warning systems, both
within and beyond the United Nations system, early warning is still
inadequate for most of the world's population. The technical ability to
foresee and interpret most hazards is no longer as limited as it once was.
Modern communications technologies provide more access to information, more
quickly. A major challenge remains to ensure that this knowledge can be
accessible to, understood by and acted upon by local communities and the
people most directly affected by threatened disasters.
B. International interest in early warning
8. Since the proclamation of the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction by the General Assembly in its resolution 44/236 of 22 December
1989, the International Framework of Action for the International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction, contained in the annex to the resolution,
has provided a wider context for concerted international action to involve
technical resources and improved coordination in critical areas of natural
disaster reduction. Timely and effective warnings are a basis for creating
the culture of prevention necessary for a safer world in the twenty-first
century.
9. During the Conference on Disaster Communications held in May 1991 at
Tampere, Finland, the unequal access of countries to communications
technology for effective early warning was identified. While many of the
recommendations of the Conference addressed communication requirements for
emergency response, one recommendation in particular encouraged the
establishment of mechanisms for international cooperation in the use of
terrestrial and satellite communications technologies in the prediction,
monitoring and early warning of disasters. 1/
10. By building on the increasing awareness of disaster prevention among
countries encouraged by the International Decade, the World Conference on
Natural Disaster Reduction, held at Yokohama, Japan, from 23 to 27 May
1994, succeeded in providing renewed emphasis and focus to achieve the
goals of the Decade. One of these goals, formulated in the founding
resolution of the Decade (resolution 44/236), is to provide by the year
2000 ready access for all countries to global, regional, national and local
warning systems and the possibility of broad dissemination of warnings.
11. In specific terms, the findings of the Yokohama Conference's Technical
Committee on Warning Systems, organized jointly by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Educational Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO), provide expert guidance for future
applications of existing knowledge. 2/
12. The primary outcome of the Conference, the Yokohama Strategy for a
Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and
Mitigation, containing the Principles, the Strategy and Plan of Action, 3/
supplemented by the Yokohama Message 4/ and the recommendations and reports
of the Main Committee and Technical Committees of the Conference, 5/
constitute a basis for concerted international efforts encouraged by the
United Nations to improve early warning of disasters.
13. The Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action underscore the importance of
strengthening capacities at local, national, regional and international
levels to warn of the possibility of disaster from natural phenomena or
environmentally destructive occurrences. A principle of the Strategy notes
that early warnings and their effective dissemination by
telecommunications, broadcast services and other means are key factors to
successful disaster prevention and preparedness. The Strategy itself
emphasizes, inter alia, the necessity for improved risk assessments,
broader monitoring and the communication of forecasts and warnings.
14. These forward-looking outputs of the Conference were considered by the
General Assembly during its forty-ninth session and endorsed in its
resolution 49/22 A of 2 December 1994. The General Assembly recognized the
specific value of early warning and effective dissemination as key factors
to successful disaster prevention and preparedness in all countries, but
especially for developing countries.
15. In the context of the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction, the General Assembly also adopted resolution 49/22 B of 20
December 1994, in which it requested the Secretary-General to report to it
at its fiftieth session on early-warning capacities within the United
Nations system. The Assembly also invited proposals on how those
capacities might be improved and better coordinated in order to provide for
an adequate response to natural disasters and similar disasters with an
adverse impact on the environment.
16. In addition, and by taking account of chapter 34 of Agenda 21 6/ as
well as the Principles of the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World,
proposals were invited on the transfer of technologies related to early
warning, particularly to developing countries. Recommendations were also
requested on the capacity of the United Nations system to coordinate
information about natural and similar disasters, and how this information
could be passed effectively to national, regional and sectoral early-
warning capacities.
17. Subsequently the Economic and Social Council, during its substantive
session of 1995, adopted resolution 1995/47 A of 27 July 1995, in which it
recognized the importance of reliable and hazard-resistant
telecommunications for disaster reduction, in particular in support of
early warning at all operational levels. The Council also invited
proposals from the SecretaryGeneral for further improvements in the field
of disaster-related telecommunications and further invited him to ensure
close cooperation between the International Framework of Action for the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, the Department of
Humanitarian Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat and the
International Telecommunication Union (ITU).
18. As the world takes a serious look at development requirements into the
next century, as well as the means by which resources can best be utilized
within the United Nations system, early-warning strategies provide one of
the keys for coordinated efforts to protect development accomplishments.
Improved earlywarning practices can link the abilities and resources of the
United Nations system with the interests of all countries in protecting
human resources and physical assets. At the same time, national capacities
for disaster reduction can be created within those communities most exposed
to natural hazard.
II. THE DISASTER CONTEXT OF EARLY WARNING
A. The purpose of early warning
19. Early warning is a deceptively simple notion. It can be understood
narrowly as the means by which a potential danger is detected or forecast
and an alert issued. However, this leaves unspecified the responsibilities
for the dissemination of warnings and the response which is necessary to
avoid potential harm or loss.
20. Warnings represent an added value and function. There are three
abilities which constitute the basis of early warning. The first, largely
a technical ability, is to identify a potential risk, or the likelihood of
occurrence, of a hazardous phenomenon which threatens a vulnerable
population. The second ability is that of identifying accurately the
vulnerability of a population to whom a warning needs to be directed. The
third ability, which requires considerable social and cultural awareness,
is the communication of information to specific recipients about the threat
in sufficient time and with a sufficient clarity so that they take action
to avert negative consequences.
21. This highlights four components of the warning process:
(a) Assessment of the vulnerability of potentially affected people;
(b) Detection, interpretation and forecasting of hazards;
(c) Formulation and dissemination of warning messages to specific
targeted recipients;
(d) The perception of and reaction to warnings by the intended
recipients.
22. For the warning to be successful, these actions need to be taken in
sufficient time in order to save lives, property and livelihoods that would
otherwise be lost to disasters. Depending on the nature of the hazard, the
location of vulnerable people and assets, and designated responsibilities
for action, elements of warning systems may be organized and implemented at
local, national, regional or international levels.
23. The early-warning process has to be interpreted in this broad context
in order to address the General Assembly's concern for improvements in
warnings.
B. Effectiveness of early warning
24. Warning systems are only as good as their weakest link. They can, and
frequently do, fail in both developing and developed countries for any of
four primary reasons. There can be a failure of forecasting, demonstrated
by an inability to understand a hazard or a failure to locate it properly,
in time or space. There also may be an ignorance of prevailing conditions
of vulnerability determined by physical, social, or economic inadequacies.
A third possibility can be a failure to communicate the threat accurately
or in sufficient time. Finally, there can be a failure by the recipients of
a warning to understand it, to believe it or to take suitable action.
25. The capacity of a Government or a community to respond to a warning
can also be constrained by a range of practical as well as conceptual
limitations. Adequate human, material and technical resources are needed to
establish and operate early-warning systems properly. This raises choices
as to whether to apply often scarce resources to meet other competing
priorities within a society, or to provide protection for assets over a
longer period of time against something which may only occur in the
unspecified future, or perhaps not at all.
26. The functions of early warning are accomplished by various
professional or specialized groups in a society. They include the
scientific community, government officials, communications authorities,
broadcast media, disastermanagement agencies and often the military. Each
of these groups has its own organizational structure and methods of
operation. The nature of their regular responsibilities does not
necessarily bring them together to address issues of early warnings.
27. If a narrow approach to warning is taken by an agency or organization,
limited to its own area of competence and with less regard to the
utilization of its output by others, the reliability and utility of the
entire system is diminished. Therefore, each phase of the warning process
must be accomplished effectively, accurately and in a timely manner with a
full understanding of the relationship to the other parts of the process.
A basic indicator of success for early warning is the demonstrated capacity
for joint action among the various contributors.
C. Disasters, vulnerability and risk
28. Disasters happen when a natural phenomenon or unplanned occurrence of
great force strikes a population that is vulnerable to its effects. During
the latter half of the twentieth century, the results of scientific
endeavours have provided a much better understanding about the natural
forces which shape hazards and determine their behaviour. Major advances
have been made in the capacity to anticipate potentially destructive
natural phenomena and in the use of communication media to channel this
knowledge to the people concerned.
29. At the same time, rapid population growth has increased social and
economic pressures on the natural environment in many countries. Natural
features which previously provided protection from hazards have been
uprooted or altered. The growing tendency of people to live on marginal or
fragile landscapes or in conditions of urban poverty has increased their
vulnerability to hazards. Despite the best efforts, only modest gains have
been registered in the equitable distribution of the benefits of national
development in many countries. These issues, along with other unfavourable
social and economic factors have combined to increase the number of people
who are exposed to risk and are therefore at risk - from natural and
similar disasters.
D. Hazards
30. With the exception of earthquakes, it has become technically possible
to anticipate the occurrence of most disasters arising from natural
hazards, although the time of forewarning and the range of appropriate
responses to the risk varies with the individual hazard. With regard to
human-induced hazards, which could have an adverse impact on the
environment, greater complexity and our still evolving knowledge make their
identification and forewarning more demanding.
31. In considering the early warning of natural disasters and similar
disasters with an adverse impact on the environment, as stipulated in
General Assembly resolution 49/22 B, the present report does not include
disasters arising from extreme social, ethnic or political disparities or
conflict situations which may induce large population displacements. Other
slowly evolving factors which may constitute forms of long-term
environmental modification and potential future hazards, such as global
warming and rising sealevels, are also beyond the scope of early-warning
concerns covered by the report.
32. The following categories reflect the types of hazards reviewed in the
present report and addressed by early-warning capacities within the United
Nations:
(a) Meteorological and hydrological hazards, including floods, droughts,
all types of storms, cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes, weather and climate
extremes;
(b) Geophysical hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, volcanic
activity, mudflows, tsunamis;
(c) Environmental hazards, including erosion, drought, desertification,
wildfire, infestation;
(d) Technological hazards, including accidental nuclear, chemical or
industrial release, structural or infrastructural systems failure.
33. While the above categorization is of assistance for a review of
existing warning systems, it should be noted that one type of disaster can
trigger others, as in the case of an earthquake resulting in flooding,
urban fire or technological emergencies. The users of warning systems need
to be aware of the possibility for multiple hazards and their compound
effects.
III. TECHNICAL PRACTICES AND EARLY WARNING
A. Technology and warning practices
34. New technologies can provide better understanding about hazards and
can lead to improved accuracy in forecasting. The wider availability of
information collection, storage, retrieval and dissemination by electronic
means has facilitated the exchange of information among technical
specialists and provided increased preparatory lead times. None the less,
both industrialized and developing countries still need to arrange
effective regulatory, institutional and agreed professional procedures for
the useful application of those technologies that are available. The
challenge in applying technology to disaster reduction is less a matter of
its availability or suitability, than a need to understand it, the
associated costs and the working relationships among intended users.
35. As the costs of innovations are reduced and the operational
requirements of technology become simplified, advanced technical
applications will become more widespread in early warning. With the
acquisition of additional technical skills and the spread of personal
computers, disaster managers at local community levels can access user-
oriented technologies such as decision-support systems that can evaluate
different scenarios for populations and property at risk. As access to
more information increases, however, information management will become a
major factor.
36. With the rapid advance of technology, it is necessary to recall who
the primary recipients of early warnings are and the conditions in which
many of them live. In many prevailing social and economic conditions,
traditional systems provide the primary services and means for early
warning. They can become more effective if actively promoted and refined
for this purpose, especially if they relate to traditional disaster-
reduction knowledge accumulated within local communities.
37. In contrast to the introduction of costly and sophisticated
innovations, the improvement or partial updating of existing capacities may
be more costeffective. In order to ensure an equitable development of
early-warning capacities world wide, there is a need to recognize both the
relative values of traditional systems and the benefits of more
sophisticated technologies. It is equally important to ensure that each
type can be adapted, and that they can interact, when appropriate.
B. Communications and early warning
38. There are essentially three types of communications systems involved
in the early-warning process. The first focuses on the detection of the
hazard and the assessment of any risk which it may pose. The
communications component is the telemetry associated with the relay of data
and information from observing technologies to scientists or other
specialists of the phenomenon. These systems are generally dedicated to
the particular applications of the discipline concerned and managed by its
scientific establishment.
39. The second level of communication links the technical community
familiar with the hazard to the body of officials, politicians, government
agencies or other organizations which are responsible for determining the
relevance of hazard data to populations at risk. In order for them to
carry out this responsibility of informing about an imminent threat and
mobilizing appropriate preparedness and response measures, communications
among the primary actors are essential. These actors may include civil-
defence authorities, selected ministries, technical agencies and possibly
military authorities. In this area, communications systems are frequently
dedicated for the purpose and managed independently of regular public or
communications services.
40. The third, and ultimately most critical stage of communications
relates to conveying warnings and information to the public and local
communities. Some elements of these networks may be managed by privately
owned or commercial broadcasting entities, while others are operated by
local or national authorities. The utility of these networks varies widely
from country to country and even within countries.
41. Some advanced communications systems can transmit data to an automated
facility, from which they are re-transmitted to the public without any
additional human action. They can also activate automatic procedures in
order to halt critical systems through electronic means. It is important
that these technological possibilities provide the information that is
relevant to a specific audience. This is an important human element
requiring insight and understanding of local political, cultural and social
situations.
42. The communications necessary for effective warnings are those which
are in place and operational prior to the onset of a hazard. While there
is a need for basic operational reliability, many established and routine
forms of communication can be utilized effectively for early warning if
there is an official recognition of their utility and organizational
planning to do so. National telephone systems and existing radio networks
of national agencies can be effective instruments for this purpose. This
point is easily confused with other, quite different requirements for
emergency communications necessary in the subsequent rescue and relief
phases of disaster management, after the disaster has occurred and when
previously existing means of communication may have become inoperable.
43. Satellite and other technologically advanced communications systems
have proved their worth in disaster detection, analysis and preparedness,
as well as response, but it is nevertheless important to relate these
systems to the terrestrial systems, which are still the most characteristic
means of communication within many developing countries. The ability of
many people to provide for their own protection will continue to depend on
local and familiar means of communication.
44. Many villages throughout the world will continue to use radio
broadcasts, telephones, church bells, gongs, gunshots, sirens,
loudspeakers, flags, marketplace public notices, instructions given by the
mayor and other routine forms to convey local warnings. Ultimately, the
added value of technology lies in its effective marriage with existing
forms of communication to enhance the accessibility and to increase the
understanding of warnings by a greater number of people.
C. Technological opportunities
45. Relevant technological applications for improved warnings can best be
considered by relating them to the primary functions of warning systems
(see paras. 20-21 above). As the respective needs differ, so do the
opportunities for possible transfer of technology.
46. Satellites, through their continuous coverage of the globe, provide
essential information that can lead to effective detection and
interpretation of many hazards. The ability of meteorological satellites
to monitor the atmosphere continuously and to communicate varied types of
data easily have made them a mainstay in the identification and analysis of
meteorological and hydrological conditions. With their well-developed
technology and relative simplicity in reporting, the use of satellites for
transmission of data is one way of reducing costs while greatly enhancing
the efficiency of in-country communications for early warning, once the
expensive capital costs are met. The utility of their products is evident,
for example, in the photographs of cloud cover which appear regularly in
newspapers and other forms of media throughout much of the world.
47. Airborne and satellite remote-sensing techniques such as aerial
photography, imaging radar and multi-spectral scanning represent other
tools which can improve hazard detection and analysis. They can be used to
observe, map and monitor features and phenomena on the earth's surface.
Data can be provided or changes measured for estimating rainfall or
observing possible indicators of drought or infestation. Experimental work
continues to expand satellite observation for flood forecasting and
identification of possible landslide warnings and in contributing to
experimental efforts of earthquake prediction and possible volcanic
activity.
48. Sophisticated analytical remote-sensing tools have been married to
simplified graphical representations that are able to provide packaged
information for particular locations or purposes. When linked with
personalcomputer technology and the possibility of electronic
communications, the information becomes highly portable and widely
accessible. While vast amounts of information can be generated, compilers
or packaged information can tailor the amount of data or the complexity of
its presentation to match the requirements and skills of end-users.
49. As the judgements and decision processes of experts and large amounts
of scientific information can be compiled in computerized decision support
systems and disseminated at minimal cost, there is an expanding opportunity
to translate specialist knowledge into forms suitable for local
applications. The development of CD-ROM technology in connection with
personal-computer applications can bridge technical information gaps
economically in many countries. Expert systems can be used to provide
guidance for decision-making by disaster managers or in guiding an
appropriate response for specific types of warnings.
50. The combination of remote-sensing data with global positioning and
geographic information systems (GIS) can provide a powerful means for more
precise interpretation of data if a sufficient level of expertise and
technical resources is available. The technology can relate important
community facilities graphically to areas of potential hazards to
facilitate the preparation of the risk maps which are essential for
planning effective preparedness and response measures. These technologies
can also be applied to provide a more refined analysis of terrain factors
to identify potential mountain hazards.
51. As the forecasting of natural hazards relies on the analysis of
mathematical models and verifiable environmental conditions, any
opportunity for new or additional information to update and develop these
references further is important. The availability of more precise data
generated by any advanced technology contributes to potential gains in
warning accuracy through improved interpretive skills. Applications of
space technology, especially, have provided a dramatic increase in the
possibility of monitoring and improving understanding about the
relationships between the earth's physical, chemical and biological
interactions in the atmosphere, oceans and land areas.
52. A regional remote-sensing project in support of the early-warning and
food security system for the 11 countries of the Southern Africa
Development Community (SADC) provides an example of how technical
assistance can support regional and national warning capabilities. Started
in 1988, the project has established an operational information system able
to process satellite and space technology data into information products
disseminated among SADC countries over electronic mail links. GIS
applications are used to support regional and national early-warning
systems. The use of electronic mail and an inexpensive combination of
hardware and software allows individual country agencies to access
information materials throughout the region.
53. The project has been able to apply modern applications of technology,
but without losing a human dimension in creating a sustainable basis for
the programme. All of the technical support and necessary backstopping is
to be met from within the shared capacities of the SADC countries.
IV. UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM INVOLVEMENT IN EARLY WARNING
54. Within the United Nations system there are numerous activities which
contribute to different aspects of the early-warning process. A review of
the purposes, primary actors and perceived strengths or relative weaknesses
of various programmes is contained in a technical information paper
prepared by the secretariat of the International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction. The summary given here indicates the breadth and
diversity of the commitment of the United Nations to early warning.
A. Early warning for meteorological and hydrological hazards
55. Early-warning systems can have a marked effect on reducing fatalities
associated with meteorological and hydrological disasters. In the 30 years
between 1900 and 1929, hurricanes killed more than 10,000 people in the
United States of America. In the period from 1947 to 1975, fewer than
2,000 died despite similar occurrences of the hazard. By 1992, as one of
the most powerful storms to hit the North American coastline, hurricane
Andrew caused more than $20 billion in damages but caused only 23 deaths,
in a striking testimony of the effectiveness of early-warning systems.
56. In spite of larger and more concentrated populations living in areas
of risk, these accomplishments have been made possible by means of faster
transmission of more data, improved forecasting, the composition of better
warnings and effective communication of information to the public. Most
importantly, the warning process is integrated into organized emergency
planning and effective community response programmes.
57. A consistent global approach within the United Nations system has
yielded beneficial returns on investments in meteorological and
hydrological warning activities. The World Weather Watch (WWW),
coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is a telling
example of global cooperation in the collection, analysis and distribution
of vital weather information and forecasts. Standardized communication
systems, protocols for the presentation of observed data and processed
information and a common terminology, all developed under the auspices of
WMO, have been the keys to universal acceptance and usefulness.
58. The coordinated efforts of national systems comprise the three main
components of the World Weather Watch system. The Global Observing System
observes and measures meteorological conditions by air, land, sea, and
space, providing data and information needed by a country for its own
weather services on a daily basis, in addition to forecasting severe
events. The associated Global Data Processing System consists of a network
of global and regional dataprocessing centres which produce daily weather
analysis, forecasts and guidance for weather advisories. These are
disseminated world wide by the third component, the Global
Telecommunications System. The experience gained over 30 years
demonstrates the utility of free and unrestricted exchange of information
through a dedicated global means of communication linked to individual
national technical agencies.
59. The Twelfth World Congress of WMO provided additional emphasis for the
organizations' role in fostering inter-agency coordination related to early
warning. Member countries encouraged WMO to provide the benefit of its
specialist knowledge, information and operational structures related to
meteorology and hydrology in support of United Nations humanitarian and
relief efforts before, during and after natural disasters and other forms
of crisis. This important organizational initiative underlined the types of
effort which can foster greater synergies among specialized agencies for
common benefit.
60. WMO has established coordination mechanisms to provide comprehensive
coverage and early-warning capability for tropical cyclones through the
regionally coordinated actions of the Tropical Cyclone Programme.
Activities are accomplished in association with national meteorological
services located in the six affected regional ocean basins of the world and
in the Asia and the Pacific region, with the additional collaboration of
the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP).
61. The WMO programme assists member countries in upgrading their national
forecast and warning services for tropical cyclones and related hazards
through regionally coordinated systems. An important part of the strategy
is the encouragement of country authorities to establish national disaster
prevention and preparedness measures and the promotion of effective
community responses to warnings. In recognition of the vital role of
national meteorological services in providing warnings of severe weather
events to the community, WMO's Public Weather Services Programme includes
specific projects directed at strengthening the capacities of national
meteorological services and in raising the awareness and level of public
understanding about the services provided.
62. The Hydrology and Water Resources Programme of WMO is a world-wide
network of flood forecasting systems consisting of data collection and
transmission systems linked in real time to national and basin-wide
forecasting centres. As with WWW, the systems are operated by national
agencies of the countries concerned, working within a common agreed
framework of functions and reporting standards. Warnings are disseminated
within the relevant basin area by the technical facilities concerned.
63. The current development of the World Hydrological Cycle Observing
System by WMO, with the support of the World Bank and others, will help to
coordinate bilateral and multilateral contributions at both international
and regional levels to further the coordination and technical consistency
of water resource systems in the developing countries within the Hydrology
and Water Resources Programme.
64. The African Centre for Meteorological Applications to Development and
the Drought Monitoring Programme in Eastern and Southern Africa are other
examples of regional programmes initiated by WMO to develop hazard-
monitoring capabilities linked to longer-term national development
objectives within a geographical area. Through ongoing assessment
activities and the production of medium-term forecasts appropriate to
climatological and drought hazards, these programmes demonstrate the
potential social and economic significance of technical cooperation
motivated by early-warning initiatives.
B. Early warning for geophysical hazards
65. Given the nature of the phenomena, the opportunities for accurate
prediction and warnings of geophysical hazardous events are limited and
earthquake prediction is not yet possible. Advances in scientific research
have improved the interpretation of critical stages in preliminary volcanic
activity, although that alone does not prevent disasters, as was tragically
demonstrated in 1985 by the Nevada del Ruiz volcanic mudslide in Colombia.
There can be a brief warning period prior to the effects of a local
tsunami, or several hours' notice provided for ocean-wide warnings of
tsunami events. In either case, warnings are useful only to the extent
that response mechanisms can act at short notice.
66. There is no global, comprehensive identification or warning structure
within the United Nations system for geophysical hazards. There is,
however, the hazard-specific Pacific Tsunami Warning System organized by
the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. From the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii, the programme monitors seismic
and tidal reporting stations spread among 26 participating countries to
detect and locate earthquakes in the Pacific region which may generate
tsunamis.
67. Warning and information bulletins are issued rapidly through the WMO
Global Telecommunications System and in conjunction with the
telecommunications network of the international aeronautical systems. A
variety of local visual and auditory warning signals then alert populations
in potentially affected areas. Public education and awareness activities
have proved to be essential in the countries concerned, and information
guides are prepared to support education, operations and field studies of
the specific hazard.
68. While there is no comprehensive international programme for the early
warning of geophysical hazards, there are some internationally acknowledged
technical facilities or national agencies which collect, analyse and
disseminate information regarding global seismic and volcanic events. The
Global Volcanism Network of the Smithsonian Institution in the United
States, the National Earthquake Information Centre of the United States
Geological Survey and the International Seismological Centre in the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland are three such examples which
provide information world wide. While these and other agencies monitor and
document seismic events, and UNESCO is active in supporting activities in
geophysical activities, there remains an unmet need for the global
consolidation of geophysical disaster awareness, reduction and support to
national capacity-building, as is evident with other types of hazards.
C. Early warning for environmental hazards
69. Droughts develop from a complex interaction of factors, including land
use, water management practices, weather and many aspects of human
activity. Agricultural production and other relationships between economic
or social requirements of a society and the environment can be affected by
disruptive factors such as pests, erosion, pollution or severe weather
conditions which occur over long or short periods of time. Because of this
complexity and uncertainties about human actions, early warnings about
environmental hazards must be sensitive to many variables. The monitoring
of potential hazard indicators, the formulation of warnings and the
identification of appropriate response mechanisms for environmental hazards
all require a broad range of organizational involvement and a variety of
professional abilities.
70. The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and
Agriculture (GIEWS) operated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO) is a comprehensive international warning system
for crop and food supply conditions. It monitors the international crop
and food supply/demand conditions and the factors likely to affect them.
It identifies countries and regions where food shortages may become
imminent and maintains continuous assessments of possible emergency food
needs, maintaining close liaison with the World Food Programme (WFP) in the
process. Satellite data are used extensively to monitor crop conditions.
71. FAO receives monthly reports of demand requirements and cropping
conditions from FAO member countries; this is augmented by additional
information obtained from other United Nations organizations such as WFP,
WMO, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Office of the United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) and the Department of Humanitarian Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat, special joint assessment missions, and from other
contributors outside the United Nations. The programme disseminates
forecasts and reports ongoing assessments to Governments, international
organizations, scientific and private institutions and others world wide.
Special country alerts are issued in cases of the rapid deterioration of a
country's food security situation.
72. FAO also supports regional initiatives that monitor additional threats
to food supplies. The FAO Desert Locust Information Service monitors,
analyses and disseminates information about the locust situation in
affected countries, in conjunction with associated weather and vegetation
conditions. Use is made of satellite remote sensing, GIS and analytical
models of locust behaviour to provide forecasts and early-warning
information. The FAO Emergency Prevention Systems for Transboundary Animal
and Plant Diseases for Desert Locust Component is another regional
programme which alerts and supports response activities for this particular
hazard. By focusing on capacity-building, it acts to reduce the risk of
locust plagues through long-term management and research activities in the
affected countries.
73. A comprehensive environmental monitoring programme has been initiated
by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The United Nations
System-wide Earthwatch Programme is proceeding to coordinate, harmonize and
integrate the observation, assessment and reporting activities related to
environmental and socio-economic information throughout the United Nations
system. The objective is to provide a consolidated basis for decision-
making about sustainable development and to warn countries and the
development assistance community of emergency problems requiring concerted
and timely international action.
74. Regional or intergovernmental authorities provide additional emphasis
for specific warning requirements. The Intergovernmental Authority on
Drought and Development, composed of countries in north-eastern Africa,
manages a regional Early Warning and Food Information System. The
programme monitors crop and livestock production and marketing through
systematic data collection and analysis. Efforts are focused on the
development and application of earlywarning methodologies and improved
communications suited to the area, in addition to local staff training and
the distribution of information.
75. Other similar programmes are the Regional and National Early Warning
System conducted by the countries of the Southern Africa Development
Community and the AGHRYMET Programme of the Inter-State Committee on
Drought Control in the Sahel. Support is provided by United Nations
specialized agencies to each of these programmes, in which satellite
observation and electronic communications systems are employed along with
conventional national and regional telecommunications systems for the
interpretation and dissemination of early-warning information for
participating countries.
D. Early warning for technological hazards
76. In addition to providing emergency warnings of an imminent
technological threat to the environment, as in a chemical or nuclear
release, the systematic analysis of information, often involving a
multidisciplinary range of specialists, is an important component of early
warning for technological hazards. In contrast with known natural hazards
with evident effects and likely seasons or location of occurrence,
technological or chemical hazards having an adverse effect on the
environment may exist in the midst of communities which are unaware of the
threat which they represent.
77. There is a special need for early warnings of technological hazards to
be able to alert, but also to identify, evaluate and inform about sources
of potential risks. As there can be causal relationships between natural
and technological disasters, there is a growing concern that multiple
hazard risks are emerging more rapidly than the knowledge base to
anticipate appropriate means of prevention or response.
78. In the area of nuclear and radiation hazards, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) oversees an international framework organized to
minimize the environmental, health and economic consequences of a nuclear
accident. The 1986 IAEA Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear
Accident is the primary instrument to ensure the timely and adequate
notification to authorities of countries that might be affected by a
nuclear accident. It is a matter of some interest that the Convention, now
ratified by 75 countries with 68 additional signatory countries which have
not yet ratified it, was negotiated immediately after the Chernobyl reactor
accident.
79. IAEA requires that accident notifications refer to standardized data
to create a common information structure. Requirements were outlined in a
1992 guidance document and IAEA provides a standard basis of reference with
the International Nuclear Event Scale, which allows a common understanding
of nuclear events among the technical community involved, the media and the
public. As it is used to describe the magnitude of an event and also to
inform the public promptly and consistently of various aspects pertaining
to safety, it could serve as a model for the development of global
nomenclature and advisory standards for other types of hazards and
comprehensive warning systems.
80. IAEA collaborates with other international organizations in an
exemplary model of coordination which is based on the reliability and
technical abilities of its partners. The coordinating mechanism is the
Inter-agency Committee for the Response to Nuclear Accidents, which is
chaired by IAEA. WMO plays an important supporting role, as it provides
IAEA with 24-hour backup support to prepare projections of atmospheric
conditions essential for accurate warnings. WMO's Global Telecommunications
System is also utilized by IAEA for the dissemination of warnings. WHO
participates with a concern for medical and health-related issues, as well
as maintaining special arrangements to provide public-health support in
response to a request from a national ministry of health. FAO is concerned
with food distribution and consumption issues following an event, while
UNEP contributes environmental and natural resources information and
support. IMO provides technical information in relation to nuclear
pollution at sea. The Department of Humanitarian Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat assists in the dissemination of information about the
event internationally.
81. In a broader context, WMO has an environmental Emergency Response
Activities programme to facilitate the international exchange of data and
information following the dispersion of nuclear or other forms of
environmental pollution. As a component of WMO's World Weather Watch
system, the ERA programme has global objectives to develop and improve the
capabilities of member countries to respond effectively to human-induced
environmental emergencies. WMO coordinates its ERA involvement with that
of other international agencies and regional organizations to ensure
programme effectiveness in responding to early warnings.
82. The UNEP programme dedicated to the Awareness and Preparedness for
Emergencies at the Local Level (APELL) has been instrumental in translating
the broad need for warnings into a process for developing awareness of
potential technological hazards and providing effective community
collaboration for responding to industrial accidents. The involvement of
industry and government officials in addressing warning and disaster
preparedness interests of local communities has been influential in
translating the awareness of a threat into practical, collaborative
accomplishments. The Cameo hazardous materials directory promoted by APELL
provides a useful example for local application of decision support systems
technology.
83. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) has been
instrumental in promoting early-warning capacities for industrial accidents
through the Convention on the Transboundary Effects of Industrial
Accidents. The 1992 Convention aims to strengthen national capacities and
international cooperation in the prevention, preparedness and response to
industrial accidents capable of causing transboundary effects through the
promotion of mutual assistance, research and development, the exchange of
information and the development of safety management technologies. An
industrial accident notification system has been devised, including the
designation of emergency notification contacts in the signatory countries.
Two industrial accident coordinating centres have been established to
enhance national capacitybuilding, with special emphasis on the needs and
priorities of countries in transition.
84. A joint UNEP/Department of Humanitarian Affairs (United Nations)
Environment Unit was established and located in the Department's Relief
Coordination Branch in 1994 to enhance international capacities to respond
to environmental aspects of disasters for countries whose ability to cope
has been overwhelmed. The Unit provides international notification of
specific emergencies, brokerage of required services between affected and
donor countries, an information clearing-house, impact and response
assessments, and facilitates the provision of emergency assistance.
85. The Environment Unit is developing interface procedures with relevant
United Nations agencies and other organizations to strengthen regional and
international procedures relating to notification and response to
environmental emergencies. The joint involvement of UNEP and the
Department of Humanitarian Affairs in this area was expanded in 1995 with
the creation of an international Advisory Group on Environmental
Emergencies, composed of experts and national focal points from around the
world. The Group meets annually to review the work of the joint Unit and
to act as a forum for sharing international experience relating to
technological aspects of environmental emergencies.
E. Review of telecommunication activities
86. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is the world-wide
organization through which Governments and the private commercial sector
coordinate the establishment and operations of telecommunications networks
and services. It is responsible for the regulation, standardization,
coordination and development of international telecommunications and works
for the harmonization of national policies. As the custodian of the
international radio frequency spectrum, ITU has a critical role in
fostering collaboration and operational standards among all bodies involved
in early-warning systems.
87. The opportunities for improved early warnings provided by traditional
telecommunications services and emerging modern technologies are
considerable. The increasing flexibility demonstrated by systems in both
private and public domains provide various types of interface with early-
warning requirements at the international, country or local level.
88. ITU has been instrumental, working together with the Department of
Humanitarian Affairs and specialized agencies of the United Nations engaged
in emergency operations to obtain an international convention on disaster
communications. While most of these efforts have concentrated on
facilitating the use of telecommunications resources for disaster response
activities in acute emergencies, ITU has also noted the important role of
telecommunications in disaster mitigation. Resolution No. 7 of the ITU
First World Telecommunication Development Conference in 1994 extended that
awareness specifically to include early warnings.
F. Review of supporting activities and capacity-building
89. Virtually all of the early-warning systems described and the related
activities of United Nations organizations contribute to the capacity-
building of national or sectoral technical abilities. Early-warning
practices can only exist to the extent that they are based on the developed
skills and abilities of people related through structured organizational
relationships. The programmes described and the respective United Nations
agencies associated with them have each contributed training, the transfer
of technology, research abilities or technical expertise to national
counterpart and technical organizations. In addition, there are other
organizations or individual programme activities in the United Nations
system which play additional supporting roles for the early warning of
natural and similar disasters.
90. WHO has a long-established commitment to preventive strategies based
on the early detection of potential hazards and community awareness,
incorporated in the ongoing public-health programmes of member countries.
The organization has initiated an Epidemiological Information System that
regularly issues bulletins and alerts relating to significant
epidemiological problems. WHO's International Programme on Chemical Safety
is conducted in close association with UNEP's APELL programme to provide
technical advice to affected communities and also maintains comprehensive
toxicological information and databases essential for early warning through
a global network of collaborating centres.
91. The translation of early-warning information on slowly evolving
disasters such as drought into effective response depends on the accurate
assessment of the relative and changing vulnerability of the population
within the affected area. For this purpose, computer programmes and
equipment are becoming more accessible to quantify and map this
vulnerability. WFP has taken advantage of advances in geo-referenced
database management and in 1994 established a Vulnerability and Mapping
Unit within its overall organizational Disaster Mitigation Strategy. WFP's
disaster-mitigation activities are carried out in close collaboration with
programmes of other cooperating partners, non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) and Governments. In this respect, WFP's activities have placed a
special emphasis on building sustainable vulnerabilitymapping systems which
encourage full government ownership. This has resulted in the development
by several African countries of national vulnerability assessment and
mapping committees or similar analysis systems integrated into national
planning and development efforts.
92. UNEP's Global Resources Information Database (UNEP/GRID), located
within UNEP's Environment Assessment Division, provides geo-referenced data
to support environmental assessment within UNEP, among other United Nations
agencies, and for national partners and clients. UNEP/GRID's Global
Information System on Natural Hazards is a specific activity being
implemented in conjunction with the Department of Humanitarian Affairs and
the secretariat of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
This interpretive and display technology based on global data sets and GIS
technology provides reference documentation to specialists and decision
makers involved in hazard and risk assessment.
93. Other programmes within the United Nations system contribute, either
directly or indirectly, to early-warning capacity development. These
activities include, by way of example, GIS training and networking
conducted by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research
(UNITAR) in the drought-prone areas of Africa. Similarly, the United
Nations Programme on Space Applications is active in promoting an increased
understanding and use of space technology for the improvement of early
warning for natural disasters, particularly in developing countries.
94. Under its mandate to coordinate international humanitarian assistance,
the Department of Humanitarian Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is
an important user and disseminator of information regarding the early
identification and warning of possible disasters for the international
response community. The Relief Coordination Branch maintains an Operations
Centre which screens incoming information from technical institutions and
national services for the early indication of potential emergencies. The
branch reports and facilitates the exchange of information for
international response, including the implementation of standby
arrangements for immediate technical or material assistance. Similarly,
the Department's Complex Emergencies Division has the mandated
responsibility of facilitating the exchange of information and coordinating
the international response pertaining to drought conditions.
95. The development of the ReliefWeb global information system under the
Department's auspices is a major initiative to identify and then provide
access to consolidated information pertinent to early warning. HazardNet,
the Emergency Preparedness Information Exchange (EPIX) and similar
electronic information networks under development represent future
possibilities of specialized information to support coordinated access to
background information.
96. The Disaster Mitigation Branch, working in association with the
secretariat of the International Decade in the Disaster Reduction Division
of the Department of Humanitarian Affairs, is particularly suited to
facilitate the broader international collaboration and programme attention
necessary to strengthen regional and national capacities related to early-
warning effectiveness. The Disaster Management Training Programme,
supported jointly by UNDP and the Department of Humanitarian Affairs, also
has demonstrated a capacity to initiate official and institutional
strategies designed to improve hazard awareness, preparedness and response
capabilities in more than 50 countries.
V. THE BASIS FOR INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION IN EARLY WARNING
97. A review of early-warning programmes within the United Nations system
shows that there are gaps and insufficiencies in covering the hazards that
have been cited in the present report. Coordinated efforts are required to
harmonize existing programmes at international and regional levels to
support the development and strengthening of national capabilities. The
challenge before the United Nations, and the present opportunity to be
decisively exploited, is to provide the leadership and the commitment to
proceed with measures which can create an agreed international basis for
the coordination and collective benefit of improved, comprehensive early-
warning systems.
A. Role of the United Nations
98. The General Assembly, in its resolution 46/182 of 19 December 1991, on
strengthening of the coordination of humanitarian emergency assistance of
the United Nations, provides an explicit basis for the Organization to
intensify its efforts for the systematic pooling, analysis and
dissemination of early-warning information on natural and technological
hazards. The Assembly specifies that the capacity of disaster-prone
countries to receive, use and disseminate earlywarning information should
be strengthened and urges the international community to assist those
countries in the establishment or enhancement of national early-warning
systems. To do this, the United Nations must draw upon the full range of
its existing early-warning knowledge, organizational experience and
resources in a methodical way.
99. Policies and procedures are needed to link these requirements with
the abilities of Governments, specialized institutions, intergovernmental
and non-governmental organizations through a collective approach to forge a
coherent and global framework for early warning.
100. The aim is functional coherence among the different specialist
abilities which contribute to early warning. Equally, there is a need for
systematic procedures to be agreed for related communications at all
levels. The experiences of both WMO and IAEA demonstrate that a sustained
and broadly based effort, drawing on the distributed technical abilities of
various institutions and national collaborators, is critical for the
successful coordination of international warning systems.
101. To pursue this process there is, first of all, the need for a
collective United Nations approach to define a doctrine which reflects the
true cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary, and inter-agency nature of
comprehensive global early-warning activities. The experience and
requirements of countries affected by natural and similar hazards, and
particularly those of developing countries, need to guide the development
or integration of services provided by technical agencies and international
organizations.
102. This process can be furthered by designating an authority or
mechanism to provide comprehensive oversight to early warning for natural
and similar disasters within the United Nations system. Above all, there
is a need to encourage more interaction between headquarters for the
agreement of common early-warning objectives and the consideration of
synergies among their respective programmes. The same process needs to be
encouraged between bilateral or multilateral aid organizations so that
technical-assistance planning and implementation can contribute to
collaboration between agencies and with national counterpart organizations.
103. Possible mechanisms are already in place. The International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction provides the basis of an international
framework for concerted collaboration, guided by an explicit strategy in
the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action. The Department of Humanitarian
Affairs is able to guide and relate national policy initiatives and to link
warnings with coordinated response capacities. Scientific and technical
specialists are accessible through UNESCO, the United Nations Children's
Fund (UNICEF), FAO, WHO, WMO, UNEP, IAEA and ITU, among other
organizations. Support for national developmental planning efforts,
management capacity-building and operational abilities is available through
UNDP, the Department of Humanitarian Affairs, UNITAR, the United Nations
Department for Development Support and Management Services and others.
Practical steps are needed to consolidate these capacities on the basis of
common agreement to focus the resources of individual organizations for
collective purposes, while retaining the benefit of specialist experience
in the implementation of responsibilities.
104. At the country level, the resident coordinator system provides a
coordinating mechanism to encourage a policy emphasis for early warning
when this is in the national interest. In this respect, the Country
Strategy Note (CSN) is a useful instrument for disaster-prone developing
countries to identify early-warning requirements in a national disaster-
reduction strategy. Coordinated by UNDP, but representing the interests of
government and specialized agencies alike, the CSN can serve as a frame of
reference for the joint preparation and coordinated proposal of early-
warning requirements that are fully integrated into a country's national
development priorities.
105. The United Nations Disaster Management Team (UNDMT) concept is
another instrument that can be utilized within countries to improve the
coordination among the organizations of the United Nations system
represented within a country, in association with key government
counterpart departments. Motivated by the Disaster Management Training
Programme, UNDMT provides a structure for the coordinated planning and
local assignment of functional responsibilities related to preparedness
measures and ongoing capacity-building. It is also a mechanism which could
be used after a disaster to work with national authorities to focus on
early-warning aspects to define lessons learned and to prepare
corresponding technical assistance proposals.
106. UNDP has a major role to play at the country level through its
multisectoral advisory and funding role for development activities. UNDP
can provide a sustained development programme environment for early-warning
policy motivation and can support capacity-building in areas such as
improved information management, training activities and preparedness
operations planning. The UNDP resident representative is normally the
United Nations resident coordinator. As such, he/she leads the coordinated
approach of the United Nations system at the field level in all aspects of
disaster management, including early warning. These functions are executed
through the Disaster Management Team (UNDMT), in close cooperation with the
Department of Humanitarian Affairs, and under the guidance of the Emergency
Relief Coordinator/Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs.
B. International agents for development
107. International coordination in early warning can be initiated,
facilitated and supported by the United Nations system, but it requires the
active support and involvement of other elements of the international
development community.
108. Additional opportunities need to be found to encourage the
contributions of the scientific and technical community to the decision-
making process of technical and development assistance. Technical
institutions and other forms of professional interest groups have a
valuable role to play, particularly at the regional level, in articulating
commonly held concerns or requirements of countries that are exposed to
similar types of hazards or share common geographical or cultural
attributes.
109. Decisions taken by individual donors in support of specific preferred
programme sectors or single-country emphasis can result in a fragmentation
of early-warning interests and initiatives. Urgent bilateral actions
related to developing emergencies or inspired by a recent singular event
can introduce inappropriate or unsustainable technologies. These actions
can also contribute to a misrepresentation of an agency's ability or role
within a larger national context of responsibilities.
110. Countries which depend on the use of international or regional early
warnings have an obligation themselves to contribute the benefit of their
experiences candidly to the international community. Their ability to do
so depends partially on the rigorous application of their own critical
assessments and evaluations about their capabilities, as well as
requirements for improvements. Ex post facto assessments of early warning
should be conducted following any emergency event and the observations used
to revise existing procedures or operational relationships. These
assessments, when made jointly with the participation of technical
agencies, international organizations or donor representatives, should
contribute to a collective process of evaluation leading to improvements in
early warning.
111. The cumulative value of these efforts for improving international
coordination of early warning can be realized through concerted efforts to
modify existing policy. Member countries articulating common concerns in
governing councils of United Nations agencies or regional economic and
development associations can develop a consensus in guiding joint efforts
for early-warning commitments.
112. Other forms of regional or political organization also provide
opportunities to enhance coordination. One example is the Council of
Europe's Open Partial Agreement on the Prevention of, Protection against
and Organization of Relief in Major Natural and Technological Disasters.
This Agreement, signed in 1987 and currently being updated, groups the
interests of 20 States, 4 international organizations and 1 non-
governmental organization in activities of common interest. These include
compulsory contributions by member States for a European Warning System,
composed of a network of 12 specialized European technical centres which
implement training, information and research programmes that enhance early-
warning capacities in the countries concerned.
113. Collaborative agreements, resolutions or other forms of joint
acceptance of common interests, principles of operation, standards or
shared resources are basic to encouraging a broader involvement of
organizations in coordinating early-warning practices. The most effective
early-warning systems pertaining to specific types of hazards are founded
upon some type of basic agreement among participants.
VI. BUILDING CAPACITY FOR EARLY WARNING: ISSUES, GAPS, NEEDS
114. A review of early-warning activities of United Nations organizations
reveals gaps and requirements for future improvements in effectiveness and
coordination of early warning. Priority issues relate to improving the
coordination of early warning within the United Nations system and
supporting activities for national capacity-building in a larger
developmental framework, as summarized below.
115. As both of the above subjects are crucial for the mobilization of
concerted efforts within the International Framework of Action for the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and the achievement of
strategic Decade targets, a technical information paper has been prepared
by the Decade secretariat to provide more elaboration. The paper provides
direction for a process in which coordinated early-warning activities
during the next four years can contribute to the concluding event for the
Decade. In this way, the process can contribute to the possibility of
achieving an international consensus leading to established procedures for
comprehensive and coordinated early warning as a basis for future disaster
reduction in the twenty-first century.
A. Perceptions of early-warning problems
116. There is a lack of understanding about the social and organizational
nature of early warnings. The process can be made more effective by the
sustained application of tools and techniques appropriate for the required
functions. The primary criterion for improvement has to be one of
increased comprehension by the intended receivers of information. A
critical priority for improved early warning relates to working
relationships, leading to planned actions in an increasing number of local
communities.
117. The access to and exchange of technical experience and abilities -
commonly referred to as the transfer of technology -are important
contributions to improving early-warning systems. Their usefulness is
dependent upon the extent that the operators and users of the systems can
sustain the technical abilities and costs of operation. It is necessary to
scale technology to the specific levels of individual early-warning
functions, recognizing the need to relate different technologies to each
other, if their potential is to be fully achieved.
118. Warning systems need to be established and supported throughout
normal times. Early warnings are associated with emergency conditions, but
their usefulness is determined by the extent to which they are installed
and active beforehand. Effective warning systems need to be involved with
ongoing activities to maintain procedures and to develop a routine
competence with effective inter-organizational relationships. They need
continuous material and political support. Means are necessary to
incorporate early-warning abilities into other activities which contribute
to national development efforts.
119. Organizations associated with early warning need to encourage
collaborators to focus on the fundamental objective of their efforts: to
enable timely, coherent and effective response by officials and the public
to a warning. There is often the need for political will to respond to the
evidence of early warning, especially the very early signs, when there may
be more immediate priorities facing a Government. For this reason, early-
warning functions need to be linked to risk assessment and preparedness
programmes within a coherent disaster-management strategy. To further this
relationship, there is a need for continued research and development of the
technical aspects of early-warning systems for explicit user-determined
needs and applications.
B. Translating hazard identification into effective response
120. Early-warning activities span a range of professional disciplines,
and each of them can have a very different perception about early warning.
The interdisciplinary and multisectoral implications of early warnings have
been thus far inadequately addressed. There is a critical need to develop
a broader common understanding among all the people involved in the warning
process. This includes bridging gaps between scientists, communication
technicians, media professionals, political decision makers, and other
departmental or community officials responsible for implementing disaster-
management functions.
121. There is an essential need to translate technical matters into a
common understanding for the public. There is equally the need to improve
the channels by which technical and scientific knowledge about disaster
reduction can influence the political decision-making process. Whether the
critical information conveyed by a warning is technical or administrative
in nature, there is a need for increased dialogue between the producers and
intended users of the information, in a language understandable by all, if
it is to have any impact.
122. Efforts made towards formulating warnings need to be distinguished
from those made towards their utilization. The collection and monitoring
of hazard data differs from its subsequent interpretation, forecasting and
presentation. The former activities may be enhanced by sophisticated
techniques. The other functions may benefit from a more simplified
approach to implementation. The tools and technologies suited to each of
the tasks must be scaled to meet the needs and the abilities of the people
involved.
123. Technological innovations for early warning need to be assessed to
ensure that they provide added value, rather than additional costs, to
early warning. Advanced technologies can have significant recurrent costs
attributable to maintenance and their rapid evolution. There is a need for
continuous training, and there are costs associated with ensuring the
continued engagement of experienced technical staff. Both requirements are
critical for the sustainability of a warning system.
C. International abilities and national experience
124. Effective warning systems require freely available data and reliable
access for all collaborators. Exemplary warning systems encourage data
exchange and seek to facilitate its utility by establishing commonly
accepted standards, procedures, assessment criteria, etc. International
agreement on operational standards and nomenclature for early warning can
contribute to improved understanding and common benefit at all levels of
activity.
125. There is a need to draw more attention to the differing international
and national perspectives regarding what warning systems can do,
technically, and what they need to do, practically. The better
understanding of purpose, and a clear determination of users and their
needs, can contribute to the design of more effective and sustainable
warning systems. Advanced technology can create the opportunity for
countries to identify and tailor systems to their own requirements or to
devise related low-cost applications which can provide added value.
126. Export of these modified technologies can similarly benefit other
developing countries. Through increased opportunities for
multidisciplinary dialogue among national partners and technical agencies,
there is additional scope for international best practices to address
countries' primary needs. There is an equal opportunity for individual
countries to contribute their experience to the body of international
understanding for improved early-warning capacities.
127. Early-warning systems require continuous human resources development
and the documentation of experience. In addition to technical education,
systems management training is essential for the improved effectiveness and
better coordination of early-warning processes. Education is also needed
to develop a broader understanding of the relationship between early
warning and other aspects of disaster management. Efforts must be made to
encourage the sharing of knowledge among developing countries and to
document the experience of disaster-affected countries. More applied
research regarding the effectiveness of early-warning measures needs to be
conducted in primary disaster-affected developing countries by nationals of
the country concerned.
D. Disseminating the message; communicating early warnings
128. International communication standards, best practices and coordinated
efforts can contribute significant uniformity for common benefits to early
warning. As in the case of communications related to emergency response,
those used in the context of early warning can benefit from prior
international agreement on privileged access, revised tariffs, designated
responsibilities and coordinated functions.
129. The important function of communicating at the different levels of
earlywarning activity needs to be scaled appropriately to address the
resources and skills available, and the requirements to be met. Both the
needs and the limitations of users have to be translated into the
application of the most suitable combination of traditional communications
systems and modern technologies.
130. The different user tariffs applicable to various communications
systems and the attributes of official, publicly owned and operated, as
well as private commercial systems need to be evaluated more thoroughly in
response to the particular needs of specific warning systems. The
economics and feasibility of technical sustainability in the rapidly
developing sector of communications needs to be matched against practical
requirements evident in the different functions of information exchange in
early-warning programmes.
131. There is a need to evaluate the opportunities provided by upgrading
or including existing forms of familiar means of communication in the
warning process as an extension of preparedness measures associated with
early warning. Media relations, public radio and television broadcasting,
telephone systems, amateur radio operators, which are often identified
primarily with emergency response activities, can be effective in expanding
the coverage of early warning.
E. Coordination of international and national capabilities
132. Improved global early-warning coordination is dependent on two
strategies. Early-warning practices and systems need to become more
effectively linked to the organizations and activities responsible for
responding to the warning at the national and local levels. Improved
early-warning coordination will be determined by a sustained commitment to
capacity-building and the explicit involvement of the subject in
development endeavour. A short-term, primarily relief-based perception of
early warning could lead to fragmented efforts and emphasis on one sector
or aspect at the expense of another.
133. The United Nations system offers the institutional base for guiding
international efforts to formulate an early-warning doctrine. Such a frame
of reference and body of thought, with clearly defined objectives,
operating principles, and priority actions, is needed if the development of
common practices, standards and collective efforts of parties involved is
to be encouraged.
134. Equally, an operational agreement would be required among
Governments, agencies, programme sectors and the development assistance
community for such a commitment to be sustained. The process of building
improved coordination needs to be based firmly on a systematic basis of ex
post facto assessments of earlywarning effectiveness of all future
disasters, grounded in affected countries' experiences and based on lessons
which have been learned by them.
135. Successful mobilization of resources at the international level and
the resulting funding opportunities for programme activities relating to
early warning would also create an incentive for better early-warning
coordination. Commitments need to be sustained and consolidated to advance
the development of capacities over time. Greater efficiency can be
achieved by an understanding of the purpose of early warning, its mutually
supporting functions and the resources required for its accomplishment.
VII. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
136. The following conclusions and proposals are submitted for
consideration with respect to the improvement of early-warning
capabilities, better international coordination in their use and more
effective and beneficial exchange of knowledge and technology:
(a) Within the existing International Framework of Action for the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, there is a need for an
informal mechanism to develop international doctrine and operational
standards for improved and better coordinated global early-warning
analysis, forecasting and dissemination. Such a mechanism should comprise
representation from Governments, United Nations agencies and organizations,
scientific and technical communities and other professional disciplines
engaged in the early-warning process. The mechanism, an open-ended
interdisciplinary and inter-agency working process, would provide a
collective operating framework to direct a credible and effective
application of early warning within disaster management at all levels, in
particular in support of local communities at risk from natural and similar
disasters;
(b) National Governments of all countries are encouraged to undertake a
systematic assessment of the extent to which current international,
regional and national warning systems adequately address their own
requirements to provide ready access to warnings for all citizens, and
particularly those living in local communities most exposed to hazards.
The assessment should be conducted with the full support of the
organizations of the United Nations system, technical institutions and the
international development community. The results of these assessments
should contribute field-based experience to the international working group
on early warning;
(c) Countries are encouraged to designate a national body or responsible
agency as the focus for the coordination of early warnings based on an all-
hazards approach. An acknowledged national authority can contribute to
ensuring linkages with international efforts to streamline and coordinate
priority activities and capacity-building. There is a need to strengthen
links between local communities and centralized systems at national,
regional and international levels to capitalize better on local variables
and perceptions. At the same time a coherent national approach to disaster
awareness, preparedness, management, response and reduction can beadvanced;
(d) It is proposed that the mechanism referred to in subparagraph (a)
above submit its recommendations to the General Assembly at its fifty-
second session, outlining a comprehensive and streamlined operational
framework for improved and better coordinated early-warning capacities
world wide as well as propose international principles and operational
modalities for United Nations organizations, national Governments,
technical institutions and all professional interests concerned with early
warning;
(e) The implementation of these proposals for the improvement of the
early-warning capacities of the United Nations system with regard to
natural disasters and similar disasters with an adverse impact on the
environment should be duly considered in the preparatory process of the
closing event for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
foreseen for 1999. This will provide an opportunity to take stock of
concerted international efforts to improve early warning and to ensure
their full integration in the strategy for natural disaster reduction
beyond the year 2000.
Notes
1/ Tampere Declaration, adopted by the Tampere Conference on Disaster
Communications, Tampere, Finland, May 1991, paras. 13-14.
2/ See the report of the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction
(Yokohama, 23-27 May 1994) (A/CONF.172/9), chap. V.
3/ Ibid., chap. I, resolution 1, annex I.
4/ Ibid., annex II.
5/ Ibid., chaps. IV and V.
6/ Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development, Rio de Janeiro, 3-14 June 1992 (A/CONF.151/26/Rev.1 (Vol. I
and Vol. I/Corr.1, Vol. II, Vol. III and Vol. III/Corr.1)) (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.93.I.8 and corrigenda), vol. I: Resolutions
Adopted by the Conference, resolution 1, annex II.
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