Poznan
Perspective
By Dan Shepard
TUESday, 9 December 2008
Copenhagen in perspective--Poznan was billed as a major milestone--the halfway point--between Bali and Copenhagen and however it ends up, it will spur a furious pace of negotiations next year through Copenhagen. But the process is unlikely to come to a complete halt with the adoption of a new climate deal in Copenhagen. Rather, according to Yvo de Boer, the head of the UN Climate Change Convention, the deal reached in Copenhagen will be the real agreement, with real targets and commitments for developed countries and real actions by developing countries, provided there are provisions for financing and technology for such action. The Copenhagen deal would be ratifiable, but the technical details may still need to be fleshed out afterwards.
The Kyoto Protocol, he says, provides a good precedent. The agreement was clinch in Kyoto, but the final details were worked out over several meetings, concluding in Marrakesh, Morocco. The difference is that everything needs to be up and running in 2013, after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires.
Asked whether Copenhagen would be a failure if it contained no numerical targets for developed countries, de Boer flatly answered, “yes.” While he said he didn’t have a crystal ball, he added I think we have to have numbers. “It is clear politically that also need some form of engagement by major developing countries. What form that commitment will take, what shape it will take or how it will take is not clear to me. It will only happen if relevant financial and technical support mechanisms are available and it will only happen if industrial countries show leadership by committing to real reductions.
Learning the science of climate change--The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its four-part assessment on the science of climate change last year, which earned the group a Nobel Peace Prize, but the head of the Panel is still not satisfied with the level of awareness of what is actually in the report. Dr. Rajendra Pachauri says that while work has begun on the next--and fifth--assessment report, there are no new facts or reports that would alter the findings of last year’s report. “The 4th Assessment Report was very strong. It said everything.”
What bothers Pachauri is that world leaders have not taken the findings to heart. “Politicians need to show leadership and not just do what will win the next election.” He wondered why politicians have been able to convince people to go to war, the ultimate sacrifice, and not be able to convince people to take action on climate change.
But he calls himself an optimist, and said he would be doing what he’s doing if he didn’t enjoy it and didn’t think it was worthwhile. But he acknowledges that he sometimes gets angry, particularly “when you feel someone is doing something that is so apparently wrong.” His hope for the future is that the world “gets off the path of unsustainable development and that human societies adopt different attitudes and different values from the ones that created the present ones that call for “more and more” production and consumption.
Conference Notes--Arnold Schwarzenegger already checked into the Poznan Conference by video. Bianca Jagger is in Poznan and Al Gore is due here on Friday. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is due here tomorrow in time for the ministerial-level part of the Conference on Thursday and Friday. In addition to addressing the conference, meeting with dignitaries and the press, he will also lead a side event on the UN’s role in addressing climate change on Thursday evening. He will also be attending an important meeting where ministers will be discussing the shared vision of where they see the process going.
Lost and found--A round-up of items in the lost and found includes 7 caps, 6 gloves, 9 scarves, 3 keys and one wallet. Curiously, the leading lost item in Poznan is flash drives: 27.
