The UN Chronicle

Breakthrough in Bali:
A Two-Year Road Map on Climate Change Agreed

By Yuwei Zhang

On 15 December 2007 in Bali, Indonesia, 187 countries agreed to launch a two-year process of formal negotiations on strengthening international efforts to fight, mitigate and adapt to climate change. The agreement followed two weeks of intense negotiations. Delegates have agreed on both the negotiations agenda and the 2009 deadline for a successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to enter into force in 2013, following the expiry of the first phase of the Protocol in 2012.

The historic United Nations Climate Change Conference, hosted by the Government of Indonesia, took place at the Bali International Convention Centre from 3 to 15 December. The occasion brought together some 11,000 participants from over 180 countries, with observers from both intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the media, making it the largest-ever summit on the issue of climate change.

The so-called Bali road map contains the agenda for the key issues to be negotiated by 2009: action for adapting to the negative consequences of climate change, such as droughts and floods; ways to reduce GHG emissions; and ways to widely deploy climate-friendly technologies and financing for both adaptation and mitigation measures. Participating countries have also agreed on a series of steps that can be taken immediately to strengthen their commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), such as combating deforestation in poor countries, scaling-up of investment in green technology and enhancing funding for adaptation measures.

Welcoming the adoption of the Bali road map, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called it “a pivotal first step toward an agreement that can address the threat of climate change, the defining challenge of our time”. He added that the agreement had met all the benchmarks for success he set out when the conference began. Noting that “Bali is a test of their [world leaders’] leadership”, Mr. Ban said he appreciated “the spirit of cooperation shown by all parties to achieve an outcome that stands to benefit all humanity”.

“We now have a Bali road map, we have an agenda and we have a deadline. But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so we need to move quickly”, said Indonesian Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar, who presided at the Bali Conference.

Goal Achieved, Disagreements Remain

Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer of the UNFCCC, the organizer of the Bali talks, said it was “a real breakthrough and a real opportunity for the international community to successfully fight climate change”. He explained that “parties have recognized the urgency of action on climate change and have now provided the political response to what scientists have been telling us is needed”.

At the opening of the conference, Mr. de Boer said that Bali had “a huge responsibility to deliver”, pointing out that no specific targets would be agreed at the conference and that the goal of the negotiations was threefold: to launch negotiations on a long-term climate change deal for the post-2012 period; to set the agenda for these negotiations; and to reach agreement on when these negotiations will have to be concluded in order to avoid a gap between the Kyoto Protocol and whatever follows. The final text of the road map, though it does not specify or mandate emissions targets, indicates that deep cuts in emissions will be needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, which entered into force in February 2005, all developed countries must work together to reduce GHG emissions by 2012 to a level equal to 94.8 per cent of the 1990 level. During the Bali negotiations, divergence of views occurred when the European Union (EU) tried to push for the agenda, stating that industrialized nations should reduce GHG emissions by 25 to 40 per cent of the 1990 levels by 2020. The EU felt that would give future negotiations a clear goal. The United States, however, argued that the Bali negotiations should first focus on ways to reduce emissions and then discuss specific targets. Negotiators finally agreed to drop specific targets on greenhouse gas emissions from a draft document. The United States was not entirely isolated on this; Canada and Japan also did not agree on long-term targets and support for developing countries.

The Bali agreement emerged only at the very end of intense negotiations; the road towards it was bumpy. The conference overran by a day, until 15 December, despite several night-time sessions. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced that his country was signing the Kyoto Protocol, which left the United States as the only major country—and the biggest emitter in the world—yet to ratify the Protocol.

There were also tense moments when the talks stalled after the head of the delegation of the United States, Under Secretary of State Paula Dobriansky, indicated that her country opposed calls from developing countries for technological and financial help to combat climate change. In response, South Africa made an appeal for the United States delegation to reconsider. The delegate from Papua New Guinea challenged the United States, saying: “If you’re not willing to lead, get out of the way.” Minutes later, Ms. Dobriansky announced: “We are very committed to long-term greenhouse gas emission reductions. We will go forward and join the consensus.”

The developed countries wanted the developing nations to commit to targets for emissions reductions. This was strongly opposed by the developing countries, arguing that the rich industrialized countries had caused the climate crisis and still were not implementing their initial commitments.

During the last stage of the negotiations, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yodhoyono and Secretary-General Ban were forced to intervene and urged delegates to complete the seemingly deadlocked discussions. Mr. Ban, who returned to the conference after a visit to Timor-Leste and extended his stay in Bali, showed his disappointment over the progress that had been made. He appealed to delegates not to “risk everything you have achieved so far”, saying: “The hour is late. It is time to make a decision.” Describing the talks as an “exhaustive marathon”, President Yodhoyono called on delegates to complete “the most difficult mile” and finalize an agreement. He said that we could not allow “the human race and the planet to crumble because we cannot find the right words”.

Adaptation Fund and Beyond

During the Conference, a number of decisions were made by States Parties to further implement their commitments to the UNFCCC, particularly with regard to adaptation, technology, reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, small-scale afforestation and reforestation, carbon capture and storage. Parties also agreed to extend the mandate of the Least Developing Countries Expert Group, which provides critical advice to the LDCs in assessing their needs in terms of adaptation.

On 11 December, one day before the high-level segment of the conference, an agreement was reached to launch the Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund. With the Global Environment Facility (GEF) as the secretariat and the World Bank as trustee, the Fund aims to finance concrete adaptation projects in the developing countries. It will become operational with the start of the Protocol’s first commitment period in 2008. The Fund is expected to provide $80 million to $300 million annually for adaptation between 2008 and 2012, which is also the first commitment period of the Protocol. Instead of relying on voluntary contributions, funding will come from a 2-per-cent levy on revenues generated by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which allows industrialized nations to pay for carbon credits produced by emission-reduction projects in the developing countries and credit them against their own emissions targets.

“Developing countries should benefit from the adaptation fund”, said Mr. de Boer. “Perhaps in as little as a year, real resources for adaptation can begin to flow to developing countries. The UNFCCC is willing to assist developing countries prepare their national adaptation strategies”, he added.

In addition to the Adaptation Fund, Parties considered for the first time the possible inclusion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations as an activity under the CDM. This progress is particularly significant for countries expected to rely strongly on the use of coal in the future, since CCS is widely regarded as an important technology to enable continued use of fossil fuels in a clean way.

Another significant decision involves doubling the size limit of small-scale afforestation and reforestation projects to 16 kilotons of carbon dioxide per year. Mr. de Boer explained that in addition to expanding the geographical scope of the CDM, this would also enable countries without a strong economic base and energy sector, such as many African countries and smaller developing States, to profit from the CDM.

In 2007, climate change moved to the top of the world political agenda, with the EU adopting a 20 per cent to 30 per cent reduction target for 2020 (depending on action by other countries), with China adopting its first-ever national climate change strategy, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releasing its Fourth Assessment Report, which concluded that “global warming is unequivocal”.

Several days after the Bali conference, the President of the sixty-second session of the General Assembly, Srgjan Kerim, announced that he would convene a high-level Assembly meeting on 11 and12 February 2008, which will bring together Member States, the private sector and civil society. The meeting aims to strengthen support for addressing climate change in partnership with the United Nations. In addition, four major UNFCCC meetings to implement the Bali road map are planned for 2008, with the first one to be held in March or April. The negotiation process of the Bali road map is scheduled to conclude in 2009 at a summit in Copenhagen, Demark. However, finalizing the process by then, Mr. de Boer said, would be a lot more difficult than the Bali negotiations.

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