The hotspot in the political debate on global warming in December 2007 will be the Indonesian island of Bali. Typically a popular tourist destination, Bali will be the venue from 3 to 14 December for over 180 countries, together with observers from intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations and the media. The Bali Conference will begin discussions on the future of the fight against climate change. Expectations are that it would provide a road map on how to proceed to reaching a post-Kyoto agreement, including a firm timetable for the comprehensive negotiations process, which is to be finalized no later than 2009. The two-week meeting will include the sessions of the 13th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its subsidiary bodies, as well as the 3rd Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Conference will build upon the political momentum generated by the UN General Assembly thematic debate on "Climate change as a global challenge" and the high-level meeting on climate change to be convened by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on 24 September.

First of its kind, the Assembly's thematic debate kick-started the intense international discussion on climate change. Originally planned from 31 July to 1 August, the debate needed a whole extra day of national statements-a clear indication of the growing alarm over this most global of issues. As more than 70 Member States voiced their concerns over the problem, a general consensus seemed to be emerging on the crucial significance of achieving a functioning international regime within the UNFCCC framework to bring tangible results in tackling climate change. Member States expressed eagerness to participate in the upcoming Bali Conference and pledged their support for the launch of negotiations on an all-inclusive post-Kyoto treaty that would intensify collective efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Currently, the global climate change regime is suffering as the United States, the largest producer of greenhouse gases (GHG), is not a party to the Kyoto Protocol, and large developing countries like China, the second largest emitter, India and Brazil are exempt from its obligations. However, reassuring political course changes were evident at the June 2007 G-8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany. The meeting managed to align the United States closer to the international climate change framework as President George Bush committed to negotiating a new pact by 2009 to extend and broaden the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012. The Summit reaffirmed the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities as the basis for future action on climate change and underlined the need for all major economies to agree on a specific international framework. Thus, hopes for a global solution are growing, with all eyes now turning to Bali.

As expressed by the Indonesian Deputy Minister of Environment at the thematic debate, the Bali meeting should be built on a genuine partnership between developed and developing countries to combat climate change without holding development. Therefore, the key issues to be addressed at the Conference would include not only the question of emission reductions, but also technology transfer and financing of developing countries, to help them cope with adaptation and mitigation of the adverse impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation would be approached within the framework of sustainable development, where these three processes are seen as mutually beneficent natural synergies, supportive of achieving the main developmental pillars - economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

General Assembly Debates Climate Change UN photo Eskinder Debebe

The General Assembly thematic debate played a crucial role in gearing up for the Bali Conference by feeding ideas, facts and positions on the issue of climate change. All participants expressed gratitude for General Assembly President Haya Rashed Al Khalifa's initiative and the Secretary-General's commitment to the cause of fighting global warming. They agreed that the UNFCCC provides the most appropriate platform for the establishment of an effective framework beyond 2012. Member States seemed to be in tune regarding the main guiding principles for the future negotiations to be launched in Bali, such as no more "business as usual", all-inclusiveness, equity, polluter pays, common but differentiated responsibilities taking into account national circumstances, the right to development, interdependence of sustainable development and climate change adaptation and mitigation, and the need for technology and experience transfer. However, when moving beyond the ideological foundations, sources of disagreement began to take shape, giving a foretaste of some of the challenges that might lie ahead on the path to a comprehensive post-Kyoto agreement.

The role and responsibilities of large developing polluter countries emerged as a major point of contention. Developing countries requested that industrialized nations assume responsibility for their production and consumption patterns, which have led to the current levels of GHG concentration, and comply without delay with their international commitments of reducing GHG emissions. At the same time, large developing countries insisted they should not be overburdened with reduction targets that would slow down their economic growth and poverty eradication efforts. Ambassador Liu Zhenmin, Deputy Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, demanded that the "luxury emissions" of rich countries be restricted, while the "emissions of subsistence" and "development emissions" of poor countries accommodated. Similarly, India and Brazil called for exemption of developing countries from quantitative emission reduction commitments, which would obstruct development and poverty reduction. France, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Turkey and others shared a different view. They aligned behind the premise that the industrialized countries must take action proportionate to the historical responsibility incumbent upon them, but at the same time stressed that the fight against climate change would only be effective if it integrated the contribution of future major emitters.

Ambassador Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Deputy Permanent Representative of France, noted that his country expected an agreement based on the principle of fairness in burden-sharing and solidarity with the most vulnerable, but that includes commitments by all of the world's largest GHG-emitting countries as well. Lichtenstein demanded far-reaching and significant reduction targets, binding for advanced developing countries with strong economic power and high GHG emissions. In Switzerland's view, industrialized countries needed to continue to lead in combating climate change, but their efforts alone were insufficient. "So far, the Kyoto regime controls only 30 per cent of global emissions", noted its Deputy Permanent Representative, Ambassador Andreas Baum. "The future agreement should require participation of those countries that produce the highest emissions, not only industrialized countries, but also major emerging economies", he said. The controversy was probably best addressed by Ambassador Maged Abdelaziz, Permanent Representative of Egypt, who cautioned against turning the climate change debate into a crisis between developed and developing countries.

Well founded and strongly represented at the debate was the perspective of the lowest emitters and ironically the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change, such as the countries of the African group, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). They expressed anticipation and hope in the success of the Bali meeting and demanded that the international community take immediate action to fulfill its responsibilities. Uganda, on behalf of the African group, underscored the importance of basing the future agreement on the implementation of the "polluter pays" and "differentiated responsibilities" principles. Small island developing States (SIDS) demanded the transfer of technology and significant increases in the level of resources available to island States and low-lying coastal developing countries so that they can cope with climate change adaptation and mitigation while continuing to strive to alleviate poverty.

CARICOM members, represented by Belize, called on the parties to the UNFCCC, particularly Annex I countries, as well as the major emerging industrialized (developing) countries, to agree on launching formal negotiations in Bali in order to adopt substantial and legally binding emission reductions in the shortest time frame possible, aimed at achieving less than a 2° C rise in temperature.

While acknowledging the urgency of the situation and the gravity of circumstances, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs) and island States, experts were optimistic about the upcoming Bali Conference and the future negotiation process. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer noted in his presentation,

Yvo de Boer on Up-coming United Nations Climate Change Conference UN photo Devra Berkowitz

"The way forward: International Context for a post-2012 agreement", that new momentum is building up in the international climate change process with positive signals coming from both the North and the South. Encouraging steps were taken at the G8-Summit in Heiligendamm with the agreement on introducing global emissions cuts of 50 per cent by 2050 and the recognition of the United Nations as the most fitting multilateral forum on climate change. The European Union, on the other hand, has embarked upon a very ambitious programme, deciding to reduce its emissions by 20 per cent before 2020 as compared to 1990 levels and prepared to deepen emission cuts to 30 per cent if a global agreement is reached. Aggressive climate change policies have also been put in place on the national level in many European countries and Japan, and on a state level in the United States. Simultaneously, the South is also acting on climate change with wide-ranging reforms and strategies being launched by China, India, Mexico, Brazil and others. Based on these considerations, Mr. de Boer, who is responsible for organizing the Bali talks, saw positive prospects of an agreement being reached in Indonesia if it rested upon the principles of North-North equity; North-South equity with no hard emission reduction targets for developing countries but incentives instead; and addressing the competitiveness concerns of many economies.

Similar positive views were expressed by Jeffrey Sachs, Special Advisor to the UN Secretary-General and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, who gave the concluding address to the expert panel discussions. He saw Bali as the place to begin a specific debate and start doing the arithmetic of climate change. Estimating that all envisioned targets can be met at well under one per cent of world income, he viewed climate change as a solvable, utterly affordable problem, by far not as expensive as feared by all, and a tiny fraction of what the cost of inaction will be. Now that the issue had been taken out of the "high debate" on the reality and urgency of the problem, and whether it should be addressed by the global community, Mr. Sachs expected a success in Bali, where negotiators will finally have a chance to get down to the numbers. The central imperative at the Conference will be to get industrialized countries to pay for adaptation and research and development in order to enable their developing counterparts to gain access to much needed technology. In his view, however, all international players, both rich and poor, will have to be committed to the global effort.

The participation at the thematic debate on climate change of a range of distinguished panellists and many others from various sectors of Government, business and academia, as well as the strong representation of almost half of all UN Member States, placed the priority of the issue at the highest political level. The debate created collective political will and sent an unambiguous signal to the negotiators in Bali. Capturing both the urgency of the situation and the burgeoning opportunities ahead, the discussions injected powerful momentum in the global political process on climate change, leaving no room for delegates in Bali to go back to business as usual and preserve legitimacy.