For the first time in history, more than half of the world's population will be living in towns and cities in 2008, states the State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Released on 27 June 2007, the report points out that more than half of the world's human population, or 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas and the number is expected to swell to almost 5 billion by 2030, with towns and cities of developing countries making up 81 per cent of urban humanity.

Over the twentieth century, the urban population grew very rapidly, from 220 million to 2.84 billion, and the next few decades will see an unprecedented scale of urban growth, particularly in developing countries. Between 2000 and 2030, the urban population of Asia would grow from 1.36 billion to 2.64 billion, Africa from nearly 295 million to 742 million, and Latin American and the Caribbean from 394 million to almost 610 million, according to the report.

Cities and climate change: As climate change would affect the poor more severely, best practices needed to be shared and cities should to plan ahead, Ann Erb Leoncavallo of UNFPA said during a press conference on 27 June at UN Headquarters in New York. The built environment is always shaped by climate conditions. The report indicates that the use of new architectural and urban forms, new materials and innovations like air conditioning have driven up both energy costs and the cities' contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. The "urban heat island effect", resulting from the impacts of land uses in urban areas, can create microclimates and health consequences. The report also states that human health may suffer as a result of climate change, especially in poor urban areas, whose inhabitants are most vulnerable and least able to adapt and already suffer from a variety of problems associated with poverty and inequity.

Photo courtesy of UNEP

One of the climate change impacts is sea-level rise and its potential consequences. Coastal zones have always been densely populated, with concentrated economic activities and trading opportunities, the report states. Many of the world's largest cities, including mega-cities, such as Shanghai and New York City, are on the coasts and at the mouths of great rivers and seriously face the challenge of sea-level rise, especially if combined with extreme climatic events. "Protecting coastal residents from risks related to climate change would require mitigation and migration away from the lowest elevation coastal zones. It would also demand modification of the prevailing forms of coastal settlement", the report indicates.

Growth of slum population: "The problems in slums were just beginning to unfold", said Ms. Leoncavallo, adding that there was a need for improved government for cities and increased social investment globally. "Slum dwellers of the new millennium are no longer a few thousand in a few cities of a rapidly industrializing continent. They include one out of every three city dwellers, a billion people, a sixth of the world's population", according to the report. "The basic features of slum life have not changed. The difference today is one of scale." Over 90 per cent of slum dwellers today are in the developing world. South Asia has the largest portion, followed by Eastern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. China and India together have 37 per cent of the world's slums, the report states. In Dhaka, for example, the slum population has more than doubled in a decade, from 1.5 million in 1996 to 3.4 million in 2006.

Meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The UN Millennium Declaration recognized the circumstance of the world's urban poor. MDG 7 aims to "achieve significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020". The report points out that "what happens in the cities of the less developed world in the coming years will shape prospects for global economic growth, poverty alleviation, population stabilization, environmental sustainability and, ultimately, the exercise of human rights". The battle to meet the MDGs, especially halving poverty by 2015, would be waged in the cities of developing countries, said Ms. Leoncavallo. Now was the time to address the need of the peoples living in the cities, particularly regarding education, water and sanitation, with priority of the least developed countries, which had the highest population growth, she added.

Youth and the future of cities: As population structures change, attention to youth and the needs of the elderly will become evermore important, the report says. Seven stories from different cities globally in the Youth Supplement to the State of World Population report underpin the link between young people and the future of cities, particularly in developing countries. Young people under 25 already make up half of the urban population and those from poor families will be a big part of this urban wave. With this trend, they need to exercise their rights to education, health, employment and civic participation. Investment in young people is the key to ending poverty and reaching the MDGs by 2015, suggests the report.

The planning for future urban growth calls for explicit consideration of the needs of the poor. Gender has to be taken into consideration as well. "The particular needs and capabilities of poor women and girls are often unaccounted for and assumed to be the same as those of poor men and boys", the report notes. "For women in particular, cities offered better educational facilities, more diverse employment options and more opportunities for social and political participation", said Anika Rahman, President of Americans for UNFPA, a charitable organization that generates awareness of the UNFPA work and raises fund for its field programmes.

In the State of World Population 2006-Changing Places: Population, Development and the Urban Future, UNFPA stated that "the growth of cities will be the single largest influence on development in the twenty-first century". The world is about to leave its rural past behind and humankind is right at the dawn of the urban millennium. The State of World Population 2007 calls for international attention to this global challenge and no single city could handle it individually. Many cities, however, were unprepared for the fact that within a generation their populations would double, noted Ms. Leoncavallo. Substantial urban planning is needed for this transition..Natural growth, instead of migration, she added, was the main cause of population growth, and the challenges demanded immediate response by planners, social services, the international development community and donor countries.