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Act on Global Warming Now or Pay Later: The Stern Review

By Jonas Hagen

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Worldwide attention on the The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has gone "beyond the wildest expectations" of the Government of the United Kingdom, which commissioned the document, said Alistair Fernie, Counselor at the Permanent Mission of the United Kingdom to the United Nations. Speaking in a packed conference room at an event organized by the Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Committee on Sustainable Development at UN Headquarters in New York on 18 January, Mr. Fernie outlined the Review and its implications for the future.

The Stern Review concludes that the benefits of strong and early action to stop global warming far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. Compiled by Sir Nicholas Stern and released on 30 October 2006, it is one of the first major government-sponsored reports on global warming conducted by an economist rather than an atmospheric scientist. "Hundreds of millions of people could suffer from hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms", says the report, explaining that inaction on climate change could lead to a loss equivalent to between 5 and 20 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP), versus a 1 per cent of global GDP cost to take actions that mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. The report argues that reducing emissions "can be done in a way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries" and presents significant business opportunities for "low-carbon" technologies, goods and services. Among other measures, the report advocates for the implementation of renewable energy sources, the transfer of environmentally-friendly technologies to developing countries, and initiatives to reduce deforestation, which contributes more to global emissions each year than the transport sector.

The report was commissioned in order to show that climate change is not purely an environmental issue, said Mr. Fernie, pointing out that "the economic analysis made the issue more palatable to a wider audience". The issue of climate change gained traction thanks to "active, strategically savvy" NGOs that were able to effectively communicate their message to the public. "Twenty years ago, when I volunteered with a group called 'Friends of the Earth', my friends asked me what I was doing with a bunch of long-haired hippies." He said that climate change has become mainstream political issue, and that in the United Kingdom, politicians now "try to 'outgreen' each other. The climate change constituency has reached a critical mass where a politician has to show a position of hurrying along urgent action, not only at home, but abroad as well".

Regarding the climate change agenda at the United Nations, Mr. Fernie pointed out that Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had publicly made it a top priority. The topic is currently not on the agenda of the Security Council, he said, because States do not perceive the issue to "present a substantial threat to international peace and security", but he suggested global warming might be considered in that body in the future.

Mr. Fernie said that progress on the climate change agenda in the United States could be led by State Governments or the private sector. The United States has not joined the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions that has been ratified by 166 countries. "Insurance companies are absolutely terrified of the effects of climate change, such as increasing storms and coastal floods", he said, mentioning that large United States-based firms, such as the investment company Goldman Sachs, were becoming involved in the effort to stop global warming.


 

 

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