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The imminence and severity of problems posed
by the accelerating changes in the global climate are becoming
increasingly evident. Heatwaves are increasing in severity,
droughts and downpours are becoming more intense, the Greenland
ice sheet is shrinking, sea levels are rising and the increasing
acidification of the oceans is threatening to disrupt the
marine food chain.
The window of opportunity for keeping atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases within an acceptable range is closing,
while the costs of mitigation and adaptation are rising relentlessly.
At the same time, there is also an increasing convergence
of science, economics, technology and finance to guide joint
international action to address climate change. A sustainable
energy future is clearly both possible and affordable, but
increased political will and greater collaboration between
developed and developing countries are required. These steps
must be built on a foundation of public understanding and
support.
Scientists worldwide have spoken conclusively. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), jointly established by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP), is one of the most sweeping
and successful scientific collaborations in history. Its fourth
assessment of climate change science could not be any clearer:
human activities are altering the atmosphere, and the planet
is warming. Unless we act now, with a great sense of urgency,
there is significant risk that the Earth's environmental systems
will cross a tipping point, beyond which costly and disruptive
impacts all over the world will be inevitable.
According to IPCC, if current emission patterns are not altered,
global temperatures are expected to rise an additional 1.8°
to 4° Celsius. Such warming would prove extremely harmful,
if not catastrophic, for our environment, economy and society,
and would disproportionately affect the world's poor, whose
livelihoods are most closely tied to agriculture and other
natural resources.
Climate change is certainly the greatest environmental challenge
facing humanity and may also be the greatest economic and
political challenge. Forging global consensus on cooperative
strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change is
a formidable challenge. But the world's scientific community
has spoken unambiguously. If we fail to act with urgency and
forthrightness, global climate change will have dangerous
effects on the world economy and security. It is now time
to hear from the world's policymakers, particularly on the
issue of energy.
We need to change the way we produce, use and conserve energy.
We have the technology to do it. Transforming the global energy
economy to harness new technologies can be the engine that
drives a new era of international economic development. The
benefits of seizing this enormous opportunity would be significant
for all countries, especially for the poorest in the world,
many of which have lacked the modern energy services they
need to compete in today's economy. Making better use of available
energy and increasing the use of clean, renewable energy sources,
such as solar, wind and biofuels, are the future. By developing
those opportunities, we will create new economic growth and
start to heal the planet. The scientific research society
Sigma Xi cogently outlined such a road map in a 2007 report
to the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, titled Confronting
Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the
Unavoidable.
While all nations must help to avoid catastrophic climate
change, those that have contributed most to the problem have
special responsibilities. The United States, which is responsible
for almost 25 per cent of global emissions, will have an influence
on how the world's energy future transforms. But, to date,
despite its ratification of the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the United States Government
has rejected the Convention's implementing agreement, the
Kyoto Protocol, and has blocked further progress on international
climate negotiations.
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Carbon
is the basis of all organic substances, from fossil fuels
to human cells.
On Earth, carbon is continually on the move-cycling through
living things, the land, oceans and the atmosphere. Philippe
Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal |
However, the domestic political support for action on global
warming has increased dramatically in the past year. It appears
inevitable that the next President of the United States, who
will take office in 2009, will bring the country back into the
global process. The reasons for this political shift are threefold:
increased understanding of the issue, driven substantially by
former Vice President Al Gore's superb film, "An Inconvenient
Truth"; increased recognition of the risk, brought home
by the devastating impact of Hurricane Katrina; and a remarkable
upwelling of activity at the state and local levels and among
constituencies not normally thought of as environmental-especially
businesses, investors and farmers.
The signs of support for a new approach to climate and energy
are numerous. Seven northeastern states are using a regional
cap and trading system to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. California's
legislature has required the state to cut its greenhouse gas
emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
has issued an executive order requiring California's petroleum
refiners and gasoline sellers to cut their global warming emissions
by 10 per cent by 2020. The United States Climate Action Partnership,
an important new group of business leaders, is calling for mandatory
controls on greenhouse gas emissions. They see the risk of global
warming, as well as the enormous economic opportunities that
will be created by a fundamental change in the world's energy
systems. The economic impact of the energy revolution of the
twenty-first century will be as significant as the digital revolution
of the twentieth century.
In 2004, General Electric set a goal of reaching $20 billion
in annual sales of energy-efficient products by 2010; by 2005,
it was already halfway there with sales reaching $10.1 billion.
Giant retailer Wal-Mart recently set goals of increasing the
energy efficiency of its vehicle fleet by 25 per cent over the
next three years and doubling its efficiency in ten, by reducing
energy used in their stores by 30 per cent, and investing $500
million in sustainability projects. Economic gain and environmental
protection go hand in hand. Numerous other companies are pursuing
similar goals in sectors as diverse as banking (Goldman Sachs,
JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup), chemicals (DuPont, Dow) and insurance
(Swiss Re, AIG). In addition, venture capital is suddenly flowing
to clean energy companies in such areas as biofuels, wind and
solar energy, whose sales are accelerating from an existing
base of double-digit growth. All of these are win-win strategies
for business and society; they are good for the bottom line,
for investors, consumers, the company's image, national security
and the environment.
In March 2007, dozens of institutional investors, responsible
for more than $4 trillion in assets, called on United States
lawmakers to enact strong federal legislation to curb pollution-causing
climate change. Joined by a dozen leading American companies,
the group emphasized the need for greater investment certainty,
as they called for a strong national policy to reduce emissions
enough to avoid the dangerous impacts of global warming. More
than 400 organizations-farm and environmental groups, and major
businesses-have endorsed an agriculture-based initiative that
calls for producing 25 per cent of United States energy from
renewable resources, such as wind, solar and biofuels by 2025.
Farmers and other landowners realize that producing more energy
from biomass and wind will benefit them directly and spur rural
economic growth. The American people overwhelmingly support
this vision of "25x'25"-98 per cent of voters say
it is an important goal for the country.
This success in forging new partnerships offers a template for
global action. Toward that end, the Global Leadership for Climate
Action initiative has been launched by the United Nations Foundation
and the Club of Madrid, an independent organization comprised
of 66 former Heads of State and Government from some 50 democratic
countries around the world. This partnership will attempt to
forge consensus on a new framework that could help guide future
negotiations toward a practicable and enforceable international
agreement for the post-2012 period, after the Kyoto Protocol
expires, which is built around national commitments to constructive
change in the production and use of energy. Internationally,
responding to climate change presents opportunities to achieve
common economic aspirations. For example, there is a huge and
growing unmet demand for farm products that can be made into
biofuels to substitute gasoline and diesel. Even more exciting
prospects involve the use of non-food crops, such as fast-growing
grasses and non-edible oils. Because the demand for transportation
fuels is so large, biofuels offer farmers huge market opportunities.
If transportation fuels are produced in an environmentally sustainable
way, they can dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions.
While all nations and farmers will profit, poor countries stand
to benefit most, because they suffer disproportionately from
the high price of oil. This price increase in recent years has
cost poor countries three to five times as much as they gained
from hard-won debt relief. By investing in biofuels, these nations
could produce their own transportation fuels, cut energy costs,
create new jobs in the rural economy and ultimately build export
markets. However, impediments to this course should not be ignored,
including the difficult issues of land ownership, governance
and infrastructure. But bioenergy development offers poor countries
the chance to reduce their costly oil dependence and better
attract the kind of foreign investment that can modernize their
farming practices and increase their food production.
Energy efficiency improvements are an example of "low-hanging
fruit" of greenhouse gas reductions. With a fresh approach
and concerted effort, it would be possible to double the rate
of energy-efficiency improvement in such sectors as transportation
and buildings, by accelerating deployment of existing technologies
and altering incentives to make energy efficiency a bigger consideration
in consumer and business decisions. This would not only result
in environmental gains, but also in reduced energy costs-one
reason why some prefer to call this approach investing in energy
productivity.
We believe there is hope for protecting the earth's climate
if we aggressively and collaboratively pursue innovative opportunities
to transform the world's antiquated and inefficient energy systems.
Building public and political support for such action, beyond
the scientific and environmental communities, is possible if
the ancillary economic and social benefits are recognized and
celebrated. But we cannot afford to wait any longer. For the
good of the planet, and to give our children and grandchildren
the kind of world that we have enjoyed, we must take action
now. |