The High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change on 2 December 2004 released its report, A more secure world: Our shared responsibility, which presents a comprehensive vision of collective security for this century.
It states that “the central challenge of the twenty-first century is to fashion a new and broader understanding of what collective security means”—the indivisibility of security, economic development and human freedom—“and of all the responsibilities, commitments, strategies and institutions that come with it if a collective security system is to be effective, efficient and equitable”. What is needed, the Panel argues, is “nothing less than a new consensus between alliances that are frayed, between wealthy nations and poor, and among peoples mired in mistrust across an apparently widening abyss”. It concludes that “the essence of that consensus is simple: we all share responsibility for each other’s security. And the test of that consensus will be action.”
Secretary-General Kofi Annan “wholly endorsed its core arguments” and welcomed the 101 recommendations made by the Panel. Briefing the General Assembly on 8 December, he said he would “move quickly ahead” to implement those recommendations that were within his purview, but Member States also needed to act on the Panel’s recommendations, and “make 2005 the year of change for the United Nations”. He had created the independent Panel following his address to the Assembly in September 2003, in which he warned the international community that the United Nations had reached a fork in the road, saying it risked steady erosion of its role as the sole universal instrument for tackling global challenges unless Member States agreed on a renewal of the multilateral system of collective security. Mr. Annan appointed 16 eminent men and women from all parts of the world and from different fields of expertise—political, military, diplomatic, economic and social—to the Panel, chaired by former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun of Thailand, to propose the kinds of policies and institutions required for the United Nations to be effective in the new century.
Prevention, the Panel argues, is at the core of collective security, and it stresses the urgency for developing policies for prevention, warning that the consequences of letting latent threats become manifest or allowing existing threats to spread are “simply too severe”. Biological security must be at the “forefront of prevention” in order to halt and roll back pandemics such as HIV/AIDS. Finally, the Panel underscores the crucial role of development as the indispensable foundation of any collective security framework that takes prevention seriously. “Development makes everyone more secure”, it concludes.
The Panel offers a vision of a United Nations for the twenty-first century and makes recommendations for reforming its principal organs, including the Security Council. It identifies a number of new threats that “could not have been anticipated when the UN was founded in 1945”: war between and violence within States, including civil wars, large-scale human rights abuses and genocide; poverty, infectious disease and environmental degradation; nuclear, radiological, chemical and biological weapons; terrorism; and transnational organized crime. Threats are both from States and non-State actors, and to human as well as State security.
The globalization process, the Panel says, has led to a world of “interconnected threats and mutual vulnerability”, and because today’s threats are linked and recognize no national boundaries, no threat can be dealt with effectively unless the others are addressed at the same time. International cooperation is crucial—no State, no matter how powerful, is able to protect itself alone; global policies and institutions are therefore necessary. The UN system and existing collective security arrangements, it notes, “have shown that they can work”: more civil wars ended through negotiation in the past 15 years than in the previous 200; the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has helped limit the number of States with nuclear arms; the World Health Organization helped to quickly contain the spread of SARS before it killed tens of thousands. However, the Panel warns that unless the UN is strengthened to effectively respond to the full range of future threats, there is a real danger that such accomplishments could be reversed.
The Panel stresses that development has to be the “first line of defence” for a collective security system that adheres to a culture of prevention. Combating poverty would not only save millions of lives but also strengthen States’ capacity to combat terrorism, organized crime and arms proliferation. It notes that an international framework already exists, set out in the Millennium Declaration and the Monterrey Consensus, but that implementation of the Millennium Development Goals still lags; international response to HIV/AIDS has so far been “shockingly late and shamefully ill-resourced”. Observing the deterioration of the global public health system that is ill-equipped to protect against deadly infectious diseases, the Panel recommends a major initiative to build public health capacity throughout the developing world, both at local and national levels.
The United Nations needs to significantly improve its capacity for preventive diplomacy and mediation. The Panel argues that the international community must build on the successes of regional organizations and work collectively to find new ways of regulating the management of and competition for natural resources, which often fuel conflict. It clarifies the role of sanctions as a “vital though imperfect tool” in prevention. Preventing the spread and use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons is “essential” for a more secure world. The Panel lays out a number of recommendations for the creation of incentives for States to forego the development of nuclear capacity, combined with an international arrangement for the supply of fissile material to civilian nuclear users at market rates, with the International Atomic Energy Agency acting as a guarantor.
Noting that international terrorism is a threat to all States, and to the UN system as a whole, the Panel urges the United Nations, under the leadership of the Secretary-General, to forge a strategy of counter-terrorism that encompasses coercive measures, when necessary, but ultimately respects human rights and the rule of law. It provides a clear definition of terrorism and calls on the General Assembly to finally conclude a comprehensive convention on terrorism. The spread of transnational organized crime, according to the Panel, increases the risk of all other threats, arguing for better international regulatory frameworks and capacity-building to combat corruption and trafficking, in order to protect and prevent organized criminal networks from enabling terrorists to move money, men and materials around the world.
The Panel also considers instances in which prevention fails and threats would have to be met by military means, and endorses the emerging norm of a universal responsibility to protect civilians from large-scale violence. It recommends a clear set of guidelines, both in terms of legality and legitimacy, for the use of force as a last resort, based on the framework of the UN Charter and under the authority of the Security Council. The Panel further urges the Council to become more proactive in prevention. In the case of the use of force, this also implies a clear international commitment to rebuilding shattered societies.
The Panel notes that deploying military capacities has proved to be a valuable peacekeeping tool, especially in the aftermath of conflict, but warns that for existing peacekeeping mandates to be carried out adequately, the number of peacekeepers worldwide would need to be almost doubled. More States would have to develop contingents on standby for UN purposes and enable deployment and other strategic capacities to assist peace operations. The Panel further observes that the United Nations has often devoted too little attention and very few resources to the critical challenge of post-conflict peace-building, which “should be a core function of the United Nations”. It lists a number of essential requirements for successful peacebuilding and calls for a focus on creating State institutions to re-establish the rule of law.
The world Organization needs its existing institutions to work better if it is to meet these challenges effectively. The Panel makes recommendations for revitalizing the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council, and for restoring credibility to the Commission on Human Rights. It also establishes principles for reform of the Security Council, increasing its credibility and effectiveness by making its composition better reflect the realities of today’s world. It provides two models—one involving new permanent members without the power of veto, the other involving new four-year, renewable seats—but argues that any reform must be reviewed in 2020.
New institutions are also needed to meet evolving challenges, the Panel believes. It recommends the creation of a peace-building commission as a new mechanism within the United Nations. Working closely with regional organizations and international financial institutions, the commission could fill a crucial gap by giving the necessary attention to countries emerging from conflict. It also argues for a forum outside the UN through which the heads of the twenty largest developed and developing economies would help in the coherent management of international monetary, financial, trade and development policies. It lays out a series of principles that would govern a more structured partnership between regional organizations and the United Nations.
To be more effective, the Secretary-General should be given substantially more latitude to manage the Secretariat and be held accountable. He would also need better support for his mediation role and new capacities to develop effective peace-building strategies. With a second Deputy Secretary-General responsible for peace and security, the Panel argues, he would have the capacity to ensure oversight of the social, economic and development functions of the United Nations as well as its many peace and security mandates.
The High-level Panel’s report is the beginning of an extensive review process in 2005 that will culminate with the five-year review of the Millennium Declaration at the sixtieth session of the General Assembly. The final report of the Millennium Project will be released on 17 January 2005 and the Secretary-General will release in March his review of the implementation of the Declaration that will provide Member States with a basis for discussion at the Assembly and at the Summit of Heads of State. The complete report of the High-level Panel can be accessed online (http://www.un.org/secureworld).
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