Given the rate at which hunger has declined since 1990 on average, the World Food Summit goal of reducing by half the undernourished people by 2015 cannot be reached. After falling by 37 million during the first half of the 1990s, the number of hungry people in developing countries increased by 18 million in the second half. According to Hartwig de Haen, Assistant Director-General in the FAO Economic and Social Department, "the goal can only be reached if the recent trend of increasing numbers is reversed. The annual reductions must be accelerated to 26 million per year, more than 12 times the pace of 2.1 million per year achieved during the 1990s".

FAO estimates that 842 million people worldwide were undernourished in 1999 to 2001, the most recent years for which figures are available. This includes 10 million in industrialized countries, 34 million in countries in transition and 798 million in developing countries. Regionally, only Latin America and the Caribbean had a decline in the number of hungry people since the mid-1990s. Only 19 countries, including China, succeeded in reducing the number of undernourished throughout the 1990s, the report says. "In these successful countries, the total number of hungry people fell by over 80 million."

At the other end of the scale are 26 countries where the undernourished increased by 60 million during the same period. Twenty-two countries, including Bangladesh, Haiti and Mozambique, succeeded in turning the tide against hunger. In these countries, the undernourished "declined during the second half of the decade after rising through the first five years", the report said. "In 17 other countries, however, the trend shifted in the opposite direction and the number of undernourished people, which had been falling, began to rise", including a number with large populations, among them India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Sudan. Several countries in Central and West Africa have seen an increase due to conflict. In some successful countries, progress slowed after dramatic gains in the early 1990s. Having reduced chronic undernourishment to moderate or low levels, "these countries can no longer be expected to propel progress for the developing world", the report says. Countries in transition showed an overall increase of 9 millon between the periods of 1993-1995 to 1999-2001.

Preliminary analysis suggests that countries with significantly higher economic and agricultural growth had the most success in reducing hunger, the report states.Other factors that contributed to success include lower population growth and higher levels of economic and social development. Those countries with a high prevalence of chronically hungry people are also afflicted by frequent food emergencies and high rates of HIV/AIDS. In fact, the southern African food crisis of 2002-2003 showed that "hunger cannot be combated effectively in regions ravaged by AIDS unless interventions address the particular needs of AIDS-affected households and incorporate measures both to prevent and to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS".

SOFI 2003 also looks at the impact of water on food security and hunger, calling drought "the single most common cause of severe food shortages in developing countries". Africa stands as a stark example of this, being the continent with the most prevalent hunger and the driest in the developing world. Achieving food security in countries where water is scarce and the environment is fragile may rely on what is known as "virtual water", through food imports. Says FAO: "It may make sense to import food and use limited water resources for other purposes, including growing high value crops for export."

Agriculture and agricultural trade in developing countries play a particularly important role in the national economies and food security of developing countries. "Countries where more than 15 per cent of the population goes hungry spend more than twice as much of their export earnings to import food as more food-secure countries", according to the report. "But their poverty and limited trading activities constrict both their export earnings and their ability to buy more food on international markets."

SOFI 2003 urges the wider adoption and support of the global Anti-Hunger Programme, proposed by FAO recently, which outlines a twin-track approach that advocates a combination of measures that increase the agricultural productivity in poorer rural communities with action to give hungry people immediate access to the food they need. The Programme sets out priorities and budgets for action in five areas: improving agricultural productivity in poor rural communities; developing and conserving natural resources; expanding rural infrastructure and market access; strengthening capacity for knowledge generation and dissemination; and ensuring access to food for the most needy.

"Ultimately", said Mr. de Haen, "success in reducing hunger will depend on mustering the political will to engage in policy reforms and invest resources where they can do the most good for the poor and hungry.

Children eating lunch at a nursery school in Ranaketugama, Sri Lanka. FAO photo/G. Bizzarri