Future Choices

We are at a crossroads with the future in our hands. The decisions taken today and tomorrow will define the kind of environment this and future generations will enjoy. GEO-3 outlines four policy approaches leading to different outcomes over the next 30 years. It highlights two of the most contrasting scenarios: Markets First and Sustainability First. One envisions a future driven by market forces, the other by far-reaching changes in values and lifestyles, firm policies and cooperation between all sectors of society.

• Land. By 2032, nearly 3 per cent of the Earth’s surface has been built on under a “Markets First” future. The extent of cities and other built-up areas, at over 5 per cent, is highest in Asia and the Pacific region under this scenario. It is lowest in Europe, at around 2 per cent. There are also big rises in Africa and West Asia. While the actual percentage may appear small, the increase in roads, power lines, airports and other infrastructure developments has much wider impacts on wildlife.
  
  Under a “Sustainability First” scenario, the area of built-up land continues to rise but falls slightly in North America and Europe, below 2 per cent, as policies lead to more compact cities and better planning.



• Freshwater. The number of people living in areas with severe water stress both in absolute and relative terms increases in virtually all parts of the globe under the Markets First scenario. An estimated 55 per cent of the global population is affected, up from over 40 per cent in 2002. The highest proportions are in West Asia, with over 95 per cent, and in Asia and the Pacific, with over 65 per cent.
  
  Under a Sustainability First future, most regions see the area under water stress remaining more or less constant or even falling as more efficient management of water reduces water withdrawals, especially for irrigation. In West Asia, the number living in areas of severe water stress is kept at around 90 per cent of the population. In the United States, the figure halves to around a fifth of the population and in Europe, it drops from around a third to just over 10 per cent by 2032.



• Forests and biodiversity. The rapid expansion of infrastructure foreseen in the Markets First future is likely to lead to ever-increasing destruction, fragmentation and disturbance of habitats and wildlife. Over 70 per cent of the land could be affected globally, with the highest impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean, nearly 85 per cent, and the lowest in West Asia, just over 50 per cent.
  
  Under a Sustainability First future, impacts from infrastructure continue to rise with around 55 per cent of the land affected, although the situation should be stabilizing by 2032. Just under 60 per cent of the land in Latin America and the Caribbean is impacted by 2032 and just over 40 per cent in West Asia.



• Marine and coastal areas. Nitrogen loading, an indicator of a wide range of land-based pollution rises sharply in Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific, and West Asia under a Markets First scenario. While the rise in Europe’s coastal waters is generally less severe, the Mediterranean coast comes under special pressure through a combination of urban growth, inadequate wastewater treatment works, tourism and intensively farmed crops. Other areas of special concern include the mouths of large rivers like the Mississippi and the Nile.
  
  Under Sustainability First, better management of sewage and run-off leads to only small increases in coastal pollution except for in West Asia.



• Atmosphere. Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels continue to rise, reaching around 16 billion tonnes a year by 2032 under a Markets First future. By the same date, concentrations in the atmosphere are over 450 parts per million, and on track to reach 550 parts per million, double pre-industrial levels, by 2050.
  
  Under a Sustainability First scenario, emissions also rise, but radical shifts in behaviour allied to the vigorous introduction of more energy efficient technologies leads to falls. By 2032, global carbon dioxide emissions would be below 8 billion tonnes annually. However, because of time lags in the climate system, concentrations in the atmosphere only begin to level off around 2050.

The United Nations Postal Administration has issued twelve commemorative stamps and a souvenir card for the Johannesburg Summit 2002. They were created by Peter Max of the United States, who also designed the stamps for the 1992 Earth Summit and the 1997 Earth Summit +5.

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