Fifteen Years Later. Living After Chernobyl
|
The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) was established in 1955, with a mandate from the United Nations General Assembly to assess and report levels and health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation. During the last few years, UNSCEAR has undertaken a broad review of the sources and effects of ionizing radiation. The Committee has just adopted its 2000 report to the General Assembly, summarizing the developments in radiation science in the years leading up to the new millennium. The report has 10 scientific annexes which are extensive reviews and assessments on: exposures from natural background, man-made, medical and occupational radiation; radiation-associated cancer risks; DNA repair; effects at low doses; and effects of radiation in combination with other agents. One annex is specifically dedicated to an assessment of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.
Of the 600 workers present on the site during the early morning of 26 April 1986, 134 received high doses and suffered from radiation sickness. Of these, 28 died in the first three months and 2 soon afterwards. In addition, about 200,000 recovery operation workers received doses between 0.01 and 0.5 Gray. This group is at potential risk of late consequences, such as cancer, and their health will be followed closely. The radionuclides that caused radiation exposure were mainly iodine-131, caesium-134 and caesium-137. Iodine-131 can be transferred to humans from the air and through milk and leafy vegetables. For reasons related to the intake of such foods by children, as well as the size of their thyroid glands and their metabolism, the radiation doses are usually higher for this age-group than for adults. The caesium isotopes have relatively longer half-lives and cause longer-term exposures through ingestion and external exposure from their deposition on the ground. Many other radionuclides were associated with the accident, and these have been considered as well in the exposure assessments. A majority of the epidemiological studies completed to date are descriptive in nature. Individual dosimetry is generally not available, thus it is difficult to determine whether the effects are radiation-related and it is impossible to reliably estimate cancer risks. The reconstruction of individual doses is therefore crucial for future research. Average doses to those most affected by the accident were about 100 mSv for 240,000 recovery operation workers, 30 mSv (milliSieverts) for 116,000 evacuated persons and 10 mSv during the first decade after the accident for those who continued to reside in contaminated areas in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Maximum values of the dose may be an order of magnitude higher. In other European countries, doses were, at most, 1 mSv in the first year after the accident, with progressively decreasing doses in subsequent years. Those are comparable to an annual dose from natural background radiation and of little health significance. A total of 1,800 thyroid cancers have been reported in individuals exposed in childhood, particularly in the severely contaminated areas of the three affected countries. If the current trend continues, many more cases may occur in future decades, especially in those who were exposed at a young age. Notwithstanding problems associated with screening, these cancers were most likely caused by radiation exposures received at the time of the accident. Apart from this increase in thyroid cancer, no increase in overall cancer incidence or mortality has been observed that could be attributed to radiation, not even among the recovery operation workers. The accident caused a serious social and psychological disruption in the lives of those affected, but there has been no increase of non-malignant disorders that can be directly related to radiation. However, there were widespread psychological reactions to the accident due to fear of the radiation, not due to the radiation doses as such. There is a tendency to attribute increases in the rates of all cancers over time to the Chernobyl accident. However, increases were also observed in the affected areas before the accident. Moreover, a general increase in mortality has been reported in recent years in most areas of the former Soviet Union, and this must be taken into account when interpreting the results of the Chernobyl-related studies. The Chernobyl accident might shed light on the late effects of protracted exposure, but given the low doses received by the majority of exposed individuals, any increase in cancer incidence or mortality will be difficult to detect in epidemiological studies. Many health problems other than cancer have been noted in the populations, but they are less likely to be related to radiation exposure. From a scientific point of view, there is a need to evaluate and understand the technical causes and health effects of the accident. From a human point of view, there is also an obligation to provide an objective analysis of the health consequences of the accident for the people involved. One future challenge will be to develop individual dose estimates, including estimates of uncertainty, and determine the effects of doses accumulated in the contaminated areas over a long period of time.
|
|
And you can E-Mail the UN Chronicle at: unchronicle@un.org Chronicle's French Site: http://www.un.org/french/pubs/chronique/ |