Global population growth is slowing, thanks to successful family planning programmes. But because of past high fertility, the world population will continue to grow by over 80 million a year for at least the next decade. In mid-1999, the total will pass 6 billion—twice what it was in 1960.

More young people than ever are entering their child-bearing years. At the same time, the number and proportion of people over 65 are increasing at an unprecedented rate. The rapid growth of these young and old new generations is challenging societies' ability to provide education and health care for the young, and social, medical and financial support for the elderly.

The challenges and opportunities posed by the changing shape of the global population are the focus of The State of World Population 1998 report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Falling fertility and smaller families have prompted recent well-publicized claims that the "population explosion" is over. On the contrary, the report points out, the world population will continue to grow substantially for at least another 50 years. In the year 2050, it will be between 7.3 and 10.7 billion, with 8.9 billion considered most likely.

According to the 1998 revised estimates and projections of the United Nations, the world population currently stands at 5.9 billion persons and is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, an annual net addition of about 78 million people. World population in the mid-twenty-first century is expected to be in the range of 7.3 to 10.7 billion, with a figure of 8.9 billion by the year 2050 considered to be most likely.

Much of the growth will be due to "population momentum", the inevitable result of high birth rates in the recent past. How much population will grow beyond that will depend largely on action taken in the next ten years, enabling couples and individuals to exercise their right to reproductive choice. In some developing regions, over the next two decades, young people will swell the workforce, compared to older and younger dependants. This will create a temporary opportunity to build human capital and spur long-term development before dependency levels go up again as populations age. To take advantage of this "demographic bonus", the report emphasizes, countries need to invest in education, jobs and health services, including reproductive health care.

Investments enabling women to choose when and whether to have children will help to ensure their contribution to development. This will also reduce abortion, reinforce the trend towards smaller and healthier families and slower population growth, and ease the course to sustainable development.

Young people in and out of school, the report states, need more and better education and information about sexuality,

Particularly essential is advice on how to avoid pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases. Those who are sexually active need sensitive counselling and access to family planning services.

Declining fertility and mortality will produce a gradual demographic shift towards an older population in all countries over the next few decades. With smaller families, parents will increasingly have fewer children to support them in old age. As people live longer and more independently, a variety of forms of support for the elderly, including voluntary programmes, as well as public systems, will become more important.

In response to rising numbers of older people, many industrialized countries are considering reforms, such as increasing the age of eligibility for public-sector pension funds. Whatever their design, the UNFPA report stresses, old-age security systems should guarantee a basic level of services to all, paying special attention to the needs of the most vulnerable, including the poorest, women who make up a majority of the elderly, and the "oldest old".

Ageing populations will strain medical systems in many developing countries which are still struggling to protect the health of younger age groups. The burden of disease will

shift to older ages over the next several decades. Nevertheless, the report contends, health services should not be reoriented towards treatment of diseases affecting older people at the expense of preventive programmes and services for poorer and less healthy people of all ages.

The rapid growth of adolescent and elderly populations demands a considerable investment in: health care, including reproductive health information and services; education and job training for the young; and social and financial support for the elderly. Such investments have enormous practical benefits. Better health and social and financial support services can take the place of large families in providing for old age, encourage smaller, healthier, better-educated families, and enable older people to remain healthy, independent and productive longer.

However, the report warns, declines in development assistance, economic crises and reductions in social expenditures threaten the progress made over the past few decades and cast a cloud over the future. Although many developing countries have increased their spending for reproductive health and population programmes, donor support remains well below the internationally agreed target for the year 2000.

Men and women of full age, without any limitation due to race, nationality or religion, have the right to marry and to found a family. —Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 16 (1)