INTERNATIONAL YEAR OF OLDER PERSONS

DEMOGRAPHICS OF OLDER PERSONS

Longevity: A Revolution

The longevity revolution is indeed a revolution "comparable to other great revolutions of history, the Renaissance and Industrial Revolution ... that transformed every aspect of life on this planet", said Dr. Bernard Starr, Professor of Gerontology at the Marymount Manhattan College, at a recent United Nations briefing on ageing. Demographic changes worldwide are resulting in increasing numbers and proportions of people over 60 years of age.

The ageing of the world's populations is the result of the continued decline in fertility rates and increased life expectancy. The more developed regions of the world have been leading in population ageing since the beginning of this century. In other parts of the globe, ageing populations have also been accelerating. These changes are now occurring at an unprecedented rate, according to The State of World Population 1998, a report released by the United Nations Population Fund. Societies are now faced with meeting the needs of the elderly in order to provide for more equity between generations.

"We can safely say that never before in human history has this kind of explosion happened. The International Year of Older Persons is a time to accept the challenges of the longevity revolution and to look for every opportunity to begin to meet those challenges", urged Ms. Helen Hamlin, Chairperson of the New York NGO Committee on Aging.

In trying to meet the challenge of an increasing ageing population, the United Nations General Assembly decided in 1992 to observe the International Year of Older Persons in 1999. The objective of the Year is to raise awareness of the fast-changing demographic picture of older persons worldwide, stimulate debate, encourage research and information exchange, and promote action strategies.

World Population

By mid 1998 world population stood at 5.9 billion and was expected to reach the 6 billion mark by mid-1999, according to the UN report. Lower fertility rates and improved health and longevity have generated growing numbers and proportions of older persons throughout most of the world. The median age increased from 23.5 years in 1950 to 26.1 years in 1998. By the year 2050, the median age is projected to reach 37.8 years. From a traditional pyramid shape with a broad base and tapering top, the world's population structure is evolving into an inverted pyramid. The world is literally being turned upside-down demographically. We need to prepare ourselves for the "age quake", according to Ambassador Julia T. de Alvarez of the Dominican Republic. As we approach the 21st century, population ageing is poised to emerge as the pre-eminent worldwide phenomenon.

The ageing process is more dramatic when one looks at the growth of the number of older persons. It will mean an increase from 580 million older persons in 1998 to almost two billion in 2050. The change will be relatively moderate in the more developed regions: from 226 million in 1998 to 376 million in 2050. The increase will be more dramatic in the less developed regions, where the population aged 60 years or over will grow from 354 million in 1998 to almost 1.6 billion in 2050. Europe is projected to remain the major area of the world most affected by ageing. The proportion of older persons will increase from 20 per cent in 1998 to 35 per cent in 2050. By then, one in every three persons will be 60 years or older. By 2050, the Aoldest@ country of the world will be Spain closely followed by Italy, with 3.6 and 3.4 persons aged 60 or above for each person below 15 years of age, respectively. The other areas of the world that will be most affected by ageing, in decreasing order, are North America, Oceania, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Africa is the "youngest" major area of the world, with older persons making up 5 per cent of the population in 1998. By 2050, Africa will still have a young age structure, with twice as many children (24 per cent) as elderly (12 per cent).

Ageing of the Older Population

The demography of aging is now being defined in terms of two different dimensions: one dealing with what might be called the demography of population ageing and the second dealing with the demography of the aged population. Not only is the total population aging, but we are also experiencing ageing of the aged population. Persons aged 80 years or more, termed the "oldest-old", are still a rather small part of today=s world population, just 1.1 per cent; yet it is the fastest growing population segment. For instance, while total population between 1970 and 1998 grew by 60 per cent, this category increased more than two-fold, from 26.7 million to 66 million C a 147 per cent increase. By 2050, this population group is expected to be almost six times as large as today.

The proportion of the oldest-old was largest in Northern Europe (3.9 per cent), followed by Western Europe (3.7 per cent) and Southern Europe (3.2 per cent). The three countries with the highest proportions of the oldest-old in 1998 were Sweden (4.8 per cent), Norway (4.2 per cent) and the United Kingdom (4.1 per cent). The lowest proportions, at or below half a percent, were in Africa, Melanesia, Polynesia and Micronesia.

At the national level, China had the largest number of people in the oldest-old group, with 10.5 million people. Today, 16 per cent of all the world's people 80 years or older live in China (30 million), 8.6 million in the United States of America, 5.7 million in India, 4.3 million in Japan, 3.1 million in Germany and 3 million in the Russian Federation.

By 2050, 12 countries are projected to have more than 10 per cent of oldest-old population. They include Italy C which is expected to have 14 per cent, Austria, Belgium, China, Germany, Greece, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. Five countries will have 10 million or more people over 80 years old. They include China, which will have 100 million; India, 47 million; the United States, 27 million; Japan, 12 million; and Indonesia, 10 million.

The absolute number of the oldest-old is going to change dramatically. Table 2 shows the expected growth of the octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians between 1998 and the projection horizon in 2050.

Globally, the number of octogenarians is projected to increase to 311 million in 2050, 5.3 times its 1998 size. The number of nonagenarians will increase almost eight-fold, to 57 million. The number of people surviving to one hundred years of age and more will grow fastest. In 2050, the number of centenarians is projected to be sixteen times as large as in 1998, or 2.2 million.

Centenarians

People surviving past their 100th birthday have always attracted much attention because survival to that age is an exceptional event. In 1998, there were 135,000 centenarians in the world. By 2050, there will be 2.2 million centenarians, that is one of every 5,000 people. The largest centenarian populations in 2050 are projected to be in China with 472,000, the United States with 298,000, Japan with 272,000, and India with 111,000. By 2050, Japan will have the highest proportion of centenarians, 2.6 per thousand of the total population, or 2.2 per cent of the oldest-old. Its total number of centenarians will be 272,000: 40,000 males and 232,000 females. Finland, Italy, Norway, Singapore and Sweden will have slightly below two per one thousand people.

Women

Population ageing also has important implications on gender balance since high proportions of the oldest-old are females. The feminization of older population groups is a phenomenon observed throughout the world because women live longer than men. In 1998, the ratio was 190 females to 100 males among the oldest-old. Specifically, the ratio was 181 to 100 among octogenarians, 287 to 100 for nonagenarians, and 386 to 100 for centenarians.

Table 3 shows the female-male ratio, the number of women in each age group for every 100 men. They illustrate two phenomena of the oldest-old: the older the age group, the faster it grows and the higher its female-male ratio.

Due to their higher life expectancy, most of the oldest-old women are widows. In addition, women over 60 years who have lost their partners greatly outnumber males. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States of North Africa and West Asia, and South Asia have the highest ratios of widowed women over 60 years of age. Algeria, Bangladesh, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Jordan, Mali, Morocco, Senegal Tunisia and Zimbabwe are among the countries with at least five times as many widowed females as males. The proportion of widowers among men over 60 years is generally under one-fifth in most countries, but just under one quarter in China. In contrast, 40 per cent to 60 per cent of women over 60 may be widows except in Latin America and some European countries, where the percentage is in the thirties. In both developed and developing countries, older men report living with and being cared for by their spouse at about four times the rate that women report. Since older populations, particularly those over 80 years, are predominantly female, older women are more likely than men to be poor or illiterate.

Longevity: A Success

As Mr. Desai noted in his statement at the launch of the International Year of Older Persons on 1 October 1998, "Longevity is a success. It is something human beings have wanted from the year dot! The fact that we are getting it should not be seen as a problem. It should be seen as an achievement."

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Published by the United Nations Department of Public Information, DPI/1964/G - September 1999