Programme Performance Assessment in Results-based Management

Session 3

Once the information has been obtained, it is necessary to analyze it and draw conclusions. The type of analysis to use and the conclusions to draw will depend on the specifics of the programme or project being evaluated, but some general rules of thumb about analysis are that:

Analysis should answer the questions posed by the performance indicators. The starting point is the situation found about those indicators.

Analysis should show changes over time. Most of the performance indicators used suggest changes like increases, strengthening, enhancing. However, even if the purpose is to maintain quality, a lack of change of a negative sort would be a positive result.

Conclusions should be based on unambiguous findings. The rule of thumb is, if it doesn’t reach out and hit you in the face, the conclusion is probably not sustainable.

Analysis should be appropriate to the quality of the data being used. There is an old saying about data: garbage in, garbage out. If the data are no good, nor will the analysis be good. You can only analyze data within the limits of what the data show… you can’t really read too much into them. As an example, naïve researchers presenting quantitative data often like to show precision in percentages by displaying many digits beyond decimal points. But if the sample is less than 100, a decimal point on a percentage is meaningless.