The Asia and Pacific region has been too slow in getting prepared for the date that many computer systems cannot handle. The current financial and economic turmoil could not have come at a worse time as governments and companies alike need resources to make their systems year 2000 compliant. Now is the last moment to create public awareness and start fixing priority systems, as many of them will fail as early as 1 January 1999.
The year 2000 (Y2K) problem is more complex and potentially more harmful than a first look would suggest. Fixing it involves not only modifying the program source codes, but also making changes to other components such as data files, forms, screens, file indices, utility programs, packaged applications, reports, interfaces, operating systems etc. Its impact extends to embedded devices, such as in security systems, elevators, facsimiles, and photocopiers. Many of the affected programs were written long ago in languages and for platforms that nobody would use for new development today. Nevertheless, it is often cheaper to make them year 2000 compliant than to replace them, provided of course that qualified personnel can be found to do the conversion work.
According to industry reports, Y2K awareness and progress in addressing the problem have been sluggish practically everywhere, except in the United States. Many developing countries that use IT quite widely have been mentioned among those that have hardly started addressing the problem. In Asia, Australia is known to be the leader, while India, New Zealand and Singapore are also making good progress. Surprisingly slow action has been reported in developed regions, including Japan and Europe. The slow European response is partly because many countries have another priority to take care of simultaneously, namely the transition to a new common currency (which will eventually affect international transaction systems all over the world).
In Asia, the current economic turmoil has tended to focus minds on daily survival, with less immediate goals being pushed aside. In principle, the governments have no choice but to fix their key applications; inaction could seriously disrupt internal administration, accounting, government transactions and public services. As the time to identify and fix problems will run out anyway, all government offices should engage themselves in contingency planning in case their key systems fail. Ignoring the problem will not make it disappear, but merely lead to escalation of costs.
The year 2000 problem,colloquially known as the Y2K problem, extends to all technologies that employ programming such that only two digits are used for the value of the year. Implications extend to computer hardware, software, systems with embedded chips. When the year 1999 (i.e., 99) changes to 2000 (i.e., 00), they will fail or produce erratic results.
The 1999 problemusually refers to the use of the date 9/9/99 as an expiration date for archived data that had 'no expiration date', a programming practice which was popular in the 1980s. (99/99/99 was also used but that would cause problems on 1 January 2000). Another critical day will be 1 January 1999, when financial and other systems attempt to rollover to cover a year forward.
The year 2000 day-of-the-week problemresults from the use of only the last two digits of the year to calculate the day of the week. That kind of application claims that 1 January 2000 will be a Monday, which was what 1 January 1900 was. (In fact, 1 January 2000 falls on Saturday, which means that many problems will not be discovered until Monday, 3 January 2000.) |
Embedded chipsthat may contain faulty date functions are used, for instance, in the following equipment:
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Time horizon failure |
Common misunderstandings |
More appropriate ways to look at it |
| The year 2000 problem is a simple technical problem -- just expand the date fields. | Many uses of two-digit year expressions are hidden deep in software code that is often undocumented and inaccessible to staff. |
| It is only a mainframe problem. | All computer applications, mainframes, PCs, LANs, operating systems and commercial and custom-made software can fail. In addition, applications containing embedded microprocessors can fail. |
| It is a problem for the IT department to resolve. | The ultimate responsibility for resolving Y2K problems lies with the top executive, who has to initiate an organization-wide alert and action to address the issue. The IT department will certainly be assigned a key role in identifying the problems. However, since many issues in resolving the problem are beyond the control of the IT departments, all departments and their heads must be involved. |
| New mainframes are running new software / All our applications are new. | The chances are high that the new mainframe is running old applications. Checks should be made that all applications are new or Y2K compliant. |
| We've got plenty of time. | Time is running out. The first big wave of Y2K failures will come one year before the D-day as systems rollover to cover a year forward. Therefore, an acceptable deadline for having the fixes in place is 1 January 1999. Note that the acquisition of new software and hardware takes time, and delivery times will get longer as the demand increases. |
| All our systems will be replaced by the year 2000. | Even if there is a definite schedule to do so, implementation of new applications, transfer of data to the new systems, and modification of related non-computerized processes that are usually necessary in any migration, often take a longer time than planned. |
| Someone will invent an automated solution. | Automated solutions do not exist, or exist only for marginal applications. Nevertheless, some tools exist to assist in identifying potential problems. |
| We will outsource our entire conversion effort. | The identification of the problem, resource allocation, and testing of applications will always require involvement of staff who have developed or are maintaining and running the systems. Outsourcing is a recommended addition to the remedial tool box, but it may be difficult to find the necessary expertise. Large organizations have commonly chosen to tackle the problem internally. |
The effects of the year 2000 'bug' vary from minor annoyances to catastrophes that could ruin businesses or threaten personal security. Some have predicted that the problem may trigger a worldwide recession, caused by disruptions of critical systems, including communications and electric power systems. Such scenarios are useful in the sense that they might alert government departments, and public and private enterprises to act more swiftly and fix their mission - critical operations.
Age calculation. Numerous examples can be predicted, but the one with by far the widest implication is calculation of the difference between the current year and birth year. For example, a non-compliant system would insist that someone born in 1925 is -25 (00-25) in 2000. This error could be found for instance in entitlement systems, such as pensions and social benefits, and life insurance applications.
Health systems. Millennium revellers would be wise to celebrate modestly as some hospitals could face disruptions in their routine operations, such as patient registering and billing systems. That may cause chaotic scenes at medical centres, and even inability to take proper care of all patients. Medical equipment might malfunction because of failures in controlling computers or embedded chips.
Air traffic. Some airlines are considering grounding flights on 1 January 2000 as part of their contingency plans. Apart from the aircraft themselves, system failures are possible in air control and weather forecasting systems and telecommunications.
Personnel systems are some of the most affected. Think only about the possibilities of getting the following wrong: hire date; date in job; date in department; adjusted service date; birth date; date next salary review; date next performance review; benefit enrollment date; benefit eligibility date; date last record change; date last salary change; date last physical exam; family member birth dates; company property expiration dates; license/certification expiration dates; earnings date; deductions start date; deductions end date; leave of absence start; leave of absence end; termination date; education/membership dates; skills dates; on-the-job dates, etc. [list taken from http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFlegal.html]
For clients and consultants alike, fixing Y2K bugs is laborious as patent or automated fixes do not exist. However, the technical solutions in each individual case are usually not complicated. What makes the task challenging is
Consequently, he recommended doing the planning in parallel to the remedial work of the most critical systems. Apart from saving time, it would allow the project team to learn the tricks of the trade and be more efficient in their subsequent remedial projects.
Rule number one is that no new system should be acquired without certification of its Y2K compliance. For existing systems, the following check list can be used.
Source: "Critical issue report: Facing the year 2000 problem. Leon
A. Kappelman and James J. Cappel. 10 October 1996. http://www-lan.unt.edu/cobabak/www/bcis/
faculty/kappelma/critical.htm.
Techniques in fixing the date
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Progress in the US Government
Source: http://cio.fed.gov/y2krp897.htm |
Yes, it can be costly as financial, administrative, information and
physical transaction systems run by government departments have many date-dependent
functions. Even entities that have outsourced all computer services, or
are running only new applications and latest technology, should systematically
review whether their data processing is Y2K compliant; assurances of vendors
and providers should be backed by concrete evidence. Small offices with
low rates of computerization and limited dependency on external computer
systems are less affected.
The estimated figures on aggregate global costs of achieving year 2000 compliance are staggering. According to the Gartner Group, fixing the year 2000 date problem worldwide will cost in the range of $300 to $600 billion. One parameter in the estimate was that it would cost about $1 for each line of code, excluding documentation, training, and final implementation testing. Other estimates vary from one half to two dollars per line. In any case, should the funds be allocated at one go from a national budget to all applications, fixing the Y2K problem would make a big dent in any government's budget.
Sources:
The Global Economic Impact of the Year 2000 Software Problem, Version 5.2 January 23, 1997 by Capers Jones, Chairman, Software Productivity Research, Inc. http://www.spr.com/html/year_2000_problem.htm (downloadable PDF file)
Testimony of the Honorable Andrew Hove, Acting Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Financial Services and Technology, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, 30 July 1997. http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/hove.htm
The purpose of this article is not to give legal advice, but to highlight some judicial repercussions the Y2K problem might cause in governments. Our coverage is limited to two issues, namely the government's liability for damages caused to third parties, and the possibility of making computer vendors responsible for fixing software licensed from them. More insights about legal issues can be found from the Internet, including the sources mentioned at the end of the article.
Apart from government contractors in the private sector, considerable damage can be caused internally, leading to rifts within and between departments. Although those cases might not be resolved in courts, a culprit search will be inevitable. That could lead to transfers of top civil servants and politicians, who at least have the responsibility for creating general awareness in their departments and making sure that appropriate action is initiated. Moreover, the deterioration or disruption of government services will be felt by the public-at-large, which may react accordingly.
In developing countries, two issues make the position of consumers more difficult than in developed countries. First, consumer protection laws are non-existent or deficient. Second, the use of pirated software is more common, and can preempt any case against vendors.
In the likely event that something goes wrong in the years 1999 or 2000, it is not only the chief information officers or heads of data processing who will feel the heat. Directors and executives might be blamed for failing to address the year 2000 problem or for failing to disclose the financial impact of compliance. In serious cases, they might be found to have been grossly negligent in dealing with the year 2000 problem, which could result in personal liability for them. Another candidate group for potential litigation are the year 2000 consultants and solution providers. Other 'risk' groups include those providing advice in software and hardware acquisition, for example when preparing requests for proposals.
In the light of the above issues, government departments and agencies and their management might want to make a legal audit a part of their Y2K inventory.
Sources:
Jeff Jinnet: Legal issues concerning the year 2000 "millennium bug" http://www.year2000.com/archive/ NFlegalissues.html
Warren S. Reid and Steven Brower: Beyond awareness: Ten management
and ten legal pitfalls regarding the year 2000 computer problem that you
may not have considered, yet! http://www.year2000.com/
archive/NFbeyond.html
Technologically speaking, the solutions for the Y2K problem are no different from those offered in developed countries. Computer magazines, the Internet, respectable vendors, mass media and other sources offer advice on handling the problem in various commercial platforms. On the other hand, custom-made applications must be tracked for the problem line by line, and module by module. Managers who are on good terms with coffer holders may be able to use the approaching millennium to justify the purchase of Y2K proof new hardware and software.
Some encouragement on the ability to plan: |
Since resources are likely to be the main problem, consider these points: |
| A better start can be made if the core business is focused on. Mission-critical applications without which operations would be seriously impaired or damage would be caused to the organization or its partners should be listed. | Important operations may have to be cancelled or delayed to release resources to fix the Y2K problem in mission-critical applications. |
| Those applications should then be examined for existence of Y2K problems in hardware, software, operating systems, utilities, networks, communication systems etc. | Taking care of the Y2K problem will show temporary decrease in productivity, but is a necessary investment to achieve higher or acceptable productivity in the future |
| A technical plan to address the issues, should be drawn up and to decide which of the problems can be tackled internally, and which require external expertise. If computer services are outsourced, the provider's plan to become Y2K compliant should be requested. | Discussions should be held with managers on which resources can be released to focus on the Y2K problem, with potential non-availability of their mission critical applications made clear. |
| A realistic cost plan should be made; it might include alternative ways to fill any gap between required and existing resources. | Few public sector organizations have all the resources they need; they have to start with what they have. The case for transferring resources from other areas and functions is strong. |
| The impact on key operations of inputs and links to systems controlled by other organizations should be identified, and precautions taken. | Planning meetings should be held with third parties, and those who are unlikely to achieve Y2K compliance should be dealt with consistently. |
| Decisions should be made quickly and iterative processes used, rather than wasting time in perfecting a plan. All parties should be informed about progress. | Accurate estimates require hands-on experience. Plans should be revised as experience is gathered. |
In all cases contingency planning will be needed to cope with possible for failures in mission-critical applications The Y2K problem is unique in nature and presents many unusual management issues. |
|
| The tenth session of the Working Group of Statistical Experts was organized by the secretariat of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) from 11 to 14 November 1997, and the Y2K problem featured prominently on the agenda. Twenty-five members and associate members of ESCAP, several United Nations bodies and specialized agencies, and a number of other intergovernmental organizations had a lively discussion about strategic issues the Y2K problem posed to national statistical services. Most participants were heads of national statistical offices, many running large systems and employing a large number of people, often in many separate locations. |
To begin with, the Working Group noted several reasons why the resolution of the Y2K problem posed extraordinary challenges for all public and private organizations, including national statistical offices (NSOs). Those reasons related not only to the technology itself, but also to managerial responsibility, organization and monitoring of corrective action, human and financial resources, the availability and cost of external expertise, and the extent to which the organizations were dependent on each others' computer systems. While in several countries of the region the mass media had provided a wealth of information on the Y2K problem, the Working Group expressed concern that the awareness of the problem was not sufficiently high in most statistical offices.
The Working Group agreed that the preferred solution to the problem was to retire the non-compliant hardware and software altogether or replace them with new systems, but recognized that that would be expensive and would require careful planning for the transition. With respect to hardware acquisitions, the Working Group recommended that NSOs order their Y2K compliant equipment well in advance so as to allow sufficient time for its delivery and the migration of operations into the new environment. Because of the shortage of purchase budgets and the short time frame that was left for the migration of statistical operations to new environments, many old generation applications were likely to be still in use after the turn of the millennium. The fixing of the 'bug' in the existing system sometimes involved laborious line-by-line checking of long programs.
The Working Group noted that the global trend of migrating systems from mainframes to personal computers and client-server environments had occurred too recently to have phased out all non-Y2K compliant applications. The Group recognized that applications created by end-users posed special problems owing to insufficient documentation or missing source codes. It was not at all clear if even those agencies that were fully seized of the problem would be able to fix the bugs in all their systems in time, especially when the program testing often required as much time as amending the non-compliant codes. The Working Group observed that in some offices, the information technology (IT) departments appeared to rely strongly on suppliers of hardware and software to come up with solutions to their Y2K problems and had not considered the issue as urgent.
The Working Group recognized that it was a managerial challenge to address the Y2K problem organization-wide. It heard that only the most advanced NSOs had made organization-wide Y2K plans and were now implementing them. In those plans, top management had assigned accountability for solving the Y2K problem to each department, which were headed by senior middle managers; the departments had to report periodically to a high-level management group on their progress. At the organization level, a dedicated coordinator raised awareness of the problem and maintained inventories and resource bases, including Web links to Y2K sites on the Internet. The advanced NSOs relied on in-house solutions rather than outsourcing the problem solving. The Working Group was informed that the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which had 20 million lines of program code to check, had set up a separate year 2000 test environment, in which all amended applications were tested before the respective departments were given a sign-off for the completion of the assignments. That procedure was proving useful, as some applications that were thought to have been fixed properly had failed.
Although the less advanced statistical offices might eventually not be in a position to solve the problem by themselves, the Working Group felt that the heads of those agencies should not avoid the responsibility of initiating Y2K risk analysis and should take action to prevent lurking catastrophes. That responsibility extended to the NSOs' non-statistical systems, such as administrative, personnel, procurement and finance systems, as well as systems that used embedded chips with date information. The Working Group agreed in general that in large organizations, such as national statistical offices, the IT departments could not alone be held responsible for solving the Y2K problem. They did not have the resources to do so; they also lacked access to departmental and individual systems. Furthermore, over-reliance on one department to solve the whole organization's problems contained a high risk. Therefore, the Working Group recommended that less advanced offices should employ multidisciplinary and team approaches adapted from the models of more advanced offices.
The Y2K problem was in no way limited to NSOs themselves; the Working Group agreed that it had to be addressed in the context of the wider statistical environment involving data suppliers and data users. A risk analysis was required in the NSOs to assess whether their data suppliers were able to continue providing information without interruption and in the agreed electronic format. The Working Group observed that hardware and software vendors had not been keen to give legally binding guarantees of their products' Y2K compliance. Nevertheless, it recommended that NSOs include a clause to that effect in their future procurement contracts. It was noted that some clients of one NSO had requested assurances on its own Y2K compatibility; that NSO was in the process of checking legal issues involved in such written provisions.
The Working Group agreed that in most computer-intensive organizations it was difficult to estimate how much work was involved in discovering and fixing the 'bug' and in testing the computers and applications. The cost of fixing the year 2000 problem depended not only on the work-months required but also on the unit price of the labour, which was already well above the average cost of new development, and was very likely to increase as the critical date approached. The Working Group cautioned the countries that the longer the problem solving was deferred, the higher the cost was likely to be. The Working Group noted the enormous cost estimates made at national and enterprise levels in some advanced countries within and outside the region. In contrast, the cost was likely to be relatively small in countries which had only very recently started to develop computerized systems. Also, any new development in modern environments was likely to be free of year 2000 problems so long as the user-defined date formats conformed with the four-digit year expression. While the accuracy of the high-end cost estimates could be ascertained only afterwards, the Working Group felt that those figures were sufficient to alert those who had not started addressing the problem.
The Working Group recommended that NSOs identify the implications of failure of any of their systems in order to prioritize which of the mission-critical applications should be fixed first. The less important systems could be fixed when the time and resources allowed. The Working Group reminded the NSOs that the backing up of data and program source codes to external devices, or to independent and reliable backup centres, was even more important than usual as the new millennium approached.
Having reviewed the serious technological and managerial challenges that all countries in the region were facing within a very short time, and having compared them to scarce resources and low awareness, especially in developing countries, the Working Group requested:
Those with access to the World Wide Web of the Internet need look no further for readings on the year 2000 problem. Start by pointing your browser to any of the following URL:s; all of them contain links to many good documents and additional information sources. More links are provided earlier in this issue. A piece of practical advice: try to progress quickly to references that are relevant to your hardware, software, operating systems, networks and area of business.
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/ g7yr2000.htm
Year 2000 International Information Directory, Group of Seven (G7), Government On-Line (GOL) Year 2000, United States General Services Administration, Office of Governmentwide Policy (United States)
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/ y201toc1.htm
Year 2000 Information Directory, CIO Council Subcommittee on Year 2000 & General Services Administration, Office of Governmentwide Policy (United States)
Australian Government's Year 2000 Home Page.
http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html
Year 2000 recession? "Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best." by Dr. Edward Yardeni.
Year 2000 Information Center, de Jager & Company Limited and the Tenagra Corporation.
Lists Y2K vendors, lots of articles.
http://www.itanz.org.nz/year2000/main_pages/ year2000.html
ITANZ Year 2000 Page, Information Technology Association of New Zealand.
http://www.cssa.co.uk/cssa/new/millen.htm
UK Computing Services & Software Association,Year 2000 Information Service
>> agora@dna.affrc.go.jp
>> agora@kamakura.mss.co.jp
>> agora@www.eng.dmu.ac.uk
In the body of your note include
>> send <URL>
or
>> rsend <return-address> <URL>
(to override your return address). Replace "<URL>" with the actual URL specification. [Do not include ">>"; here it only denotes a line to be inserted]
For instance, if you send a message to
>> agora@dna.affrc.go.jp
with
>> send http://www.un.org/Depts/escap/
in the body of the message, you should get back the ESCAP home page, and a list of all documents referenced within.
There are webmail servers listed below which run software other than Agora. The GetWeb servers can handle web pages which contain fill-in forms. Other webmail servers do not provide this ability.
Address; Syntax; how to get help files of the service
>> getweb@usa.healthnet.org; GET <URL>; Send HELP or HELP FORMS
>> getweb@unganisha.idrc.ca; GET <URL>; Send HELP for usage info
>> w3mail@gmd.de; GET <URL>; Send HELP command for info
>> wwwfmail@linux.netmor.com; Use 'Subject: info' for help
>> webmail@www.ucc.ie; GO <URL>
>> web-mail@ebay.com; <URL>
More details about accessing the Web by e-mail can be found in "Accessing the Internet by E-Mail FAQ, or Doctor Bob's Guide to Offline Internet Access; 7th Edition - October 1997; http://www.cis.ohio-state.edu/ hypertext/faq/usenet /internet-services/access-via-email/ faq.html. Dr Bob warns that webmail servers are sometimes unavailable for days (or weeks) at a time without explanation, so retries after a day or so might be needed. To get the latest edition of Dr Bob's FAQ by e-mail, send a message
to: mailbase@mailbase.ac.uk,
in the body: send lis-iis e-access-inet.txt
or to: mail-server@rtfm.mit.edu
in the body: send usenet/news.answers/ internet-services/ access-via-email (the path is one word).
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