The Social Development Situation and Prospects: Part 4

Social Policy Section
Social Development Division, United Nations ESCAP

The Social Development Situation and Prospects

of Asia and the Pacific into the

Twenty-first Century: Summary

MEETING PAPER NO 1, PART 4 OF 4

IV. PROSPECTS INTO THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

A. Poverty reduction

It is clear that poverty reduction will remain a formidable challenge into the next century in Asia and the Pacific, though the long-term declining trend in the incidence of poverty in the region should continue. The prospects for eradication of absolute poverty by 2010, as indicated in the Agenda for Action, appear promising in China and South-East Asia if the pattern of rapid economic growth experienced in the past decade continues into the first decade of the next millennium. However, the poverty eradication target may be more difficult to achieve in the Philippines, where the poverty incidence is high and the growth pattern unclear. Similarly, the countries in South Asia and Indo-China may also face difficulties in eradicating absolute poverty by 2010 because of the current high incidence of poverty and the uneven and modest rates of growth in per capita income. Allocation of expenditure to the large rural and agricultural base could further stimulate growth. There is optimism that the Central Asian economies will complete the transformation to market economies successfully and eradicate absolute poverty by 2010. Successful transformation to market-oriented economies and restoration of economic growth are necessary to reduce poverty in this subregion. In the interim, safety nets to protect the vulnerable groups may be required. The Pacific island developing economies seem to encounter a more uncertain future owing to a lack of adequate and reliable resource and production bases and potential adverse environmental and ecological impacts.

Human resources development is a critical means to accelerating economic growth, poverty reduction and enhancing the quality of life. Improving access to the basic social services (including primary education, basic health care and population planning, safe water and sanitation) that are fundamental for human resources development should continue in all the countries in the region. However, the pace of progress would continue to vary between countries, as in the past, with the South-East Asian countries more likely to achieve the targets set in the Agenda for Action. The progress on human resources development and improvement in social indicators in Indonesia may be somewhat slower than other parts of South-East Asia because of the less favourable initial situation. The present pace of progress on social indicators in the least developed countries of the region, such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic and Nepal, does not appear to be adequate to reach the targets set in the Agenda for Action.

In the poorest South Asian countries, poverty reduction would require not only increasing the income of the poor but also providing them with access to basic facilities and services and developing their capabilities. Under the circumstances, economic growth alone may not be adequate to reduce poverty. It should be complemented by improving access by the poor to primary education, basic health care, nutrition, water and sanitation and family planning services on a priority basis. Research and development, including technologies directed at improving the socio-economic conditions of the poor in such areas as in health, education and shelter, would also be important.

B. Employment expansion

The employment situation should continue to improve in the rapidly growing economies, with increases in labour productivity and wage levels. Policies and programmes to support the growing informal sector, provisions for strengthening the linkages between the formal and informal sector, improving the skill levels and composition and adapting these to the changing requirements through forward-looking strategies for human capital formation would be significant for improving the employment situation in these and other countries. The transition from labour-intensive to skill-intensive production would not be smooth or easy for many countries.

Given the initiatives and continuing commitment to the empowerment of women, the labour force participation rate for women should continue to rise in virtually all the countries. Discrimination against women should continue to decline, and their economic status should improve further. Similarly, exploitation of child labour should decline and disappear in the next century with closer monitoring and enforcement of protective regulations.

Labour mobility within countries and between countries will likely increase owing to further global economic integration and specialization. While the prospects for sustainable livelihoods for the vast majority of the people will expand, job security may decline and possibly disappear in the next century. The increasing globalization of markets, while opening new opportunities, will force economies to be highly competitive and keep labour costs and wages low, especially for unskilled labour. As the barriers of national borders diminish and there is increased labour mobility, both receiving and sending countries will increasingly need to deal with the socio-economic and political implications of migrant labour.

The new patterns of employment will have significant impacts on family life. Increased labour force participation rates of women would in turn increase the demand for and reliance on day-care and related services for children, the old and the sick. Enhanced mobility of labour within countries and territories and across national borders will increase the absence of one or both parents in the family for extended periods of time, with the care of children largely left to the remaining parent or grandparents. The impact on children and the implications for other support services are difficult to predict but will be significant.

C. Social integration

Social integration within nation-States, subregions and regions as well as globally may emerge as the most important issue of the first quarter of the next century. Rapid economic growth, increased population movements and advanced technologies, including the information explosion, will bring about changes in not only economic but also social relationships. The family structure and system may undergo further changes, with its supporting role possibly being further diminished. The need for support, especially for the dependent and disadvantaged will continue to expand. Constant vigilance is necessary to anticipate emerging social issues that could compound social exclusion and instability. Newly-excluded groups would include the urban poor, illegal immigrants, migrant workers, victims of HIV/AIDS, groups affected by economic adjustment programmes and refugees.

The demographic profile will change in many countries, with the proportion of older people increasing. Innovative economic activities, employment opportunities and assistance systems will be needed to keep them economically and physically active and for them to be able to support themselves. Creating or sustaining adequate social safety nets for those unable to help themselves will be a challenge for a number of countries. The importance of public, private and community social security and support systems may increase. Rapid urbanization would bring forth both beneficial and adverse impacts on economic, ecological and social fronts.

Guarding against fissiparous tendencies and maintaining domestic political stability and social harmony by balancing the competing demands and aspirations of various groups (for example, employers and employees, poor and non-poor, and different ethnic groups) would continue to pose challenges to many countries in the region in the coming century. Subregional, regional and global cooperation is likely to expand, building on the excellent beginnings of socio-economic cooperation in the region. It shows the need for shared values, including the need for greater equity, and a global civic ethic to guide people, countries and territories to promote subregional, regional and global harmony.

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